07/04/2014 3:56PM

Two for Saturday

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*Please join the FormBlog Breeders' Cup Fantasy Handicapping league!

Head on over to www.fantasycapping.com/illman to create your account. The password for our league is DRF123.

Looking forward to playing with and against you all.

*Let's take a look at a couple of fascinating races on the Stars and Stripes card at Belmont on Saturday.

SUBURBAN HANDICAP:

I'm expecting a good effort from #11 MORENO in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap at 1 1/4 miles on the main track. Moreno loves Belmont. He's 2 for 3 over Big Sandy and 0 for 15 elsewhere. Plus, his form might not be as medicocre as it looks on paper.

Moreno ran a big race two back in the Pimlico Special. He pressed very fast fractions, emerged with the lead turning for home, and was the only part of the pace around at the finish.

 

After that effort, Moreno's trainer, the garrulous Eric Guillot, removed blinkers in a conscious effort to rate Moreno in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap. Moreno's best asset is his early zip. Without it, he isn't the same horse. It's unlikely that he would have threatened Palace Malice even by utilizing his best tactics, but I'm not sure he would have run last.

Guillot puts the blinkers back on for the Suburban and Moreno has prepped with a pair of bullet workouts over the deep Oklahoma training track at Saratoga. There isn't a ton of pace and Moreno figures to be up there with #8 STORMIN MONARCHO, who would be taking a huge leap in class if he runs (he's also entered at Monmouth on Sunday). Also, Moreno is 1 for 1 over a wet track and wouldn't mind continued precipitation in the New York area.

Selections: 
Moreno
Romansh
Prayer for Relief

BELMONT OAKS INVITATIONAL:

The expected soft footing coupled with the 10-furlong distance might favor the European entrants. #5 FLYING JIB is stretching out past a mile for the first time and her pedigree seems slanted to middle-distances races.

Still, I found her recent victory against older fillies and mares in a Group 3 at The Curragh to be visually impressive (albeit against horses that have failed to distinguish themselves in subsequent starts), and have nothing but respect for her trainer, the legendary Dermot Weld. 

 

It's a bit baffling that she didn't contest the Irish 1,000 Guineas, but perhaps she takes a slight step forward with the addition of Lasix.

She'll have to down #7 XCELLENCE, who recently ran a decent third at big odds in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

Selections:
Flying Jib
Xcellence
Wonderfully

*I'm also interested in PALACE in the Belmont Sprint Championship, TIZ DARK in the Dwyer, and TOAST OF NEW YORK in our HandiGambling race, the Belmont Derby.

More importantly, who do you like this weekend? I want to know.

***

For Illman's league, click on existing account if you have one and that will get you in. However, that appears to automatically exempt us from the BlueBoxer League.
Dan: Does this new league signal an end to the most popular item on DRF, Handigambling?
Personally, I believe I have learned something from Handigambling over these last few years to add to my 40 plus years of experience.
RonZ

 

...if you are signing in as a new account.
league name: DRFIllman
password : DRF123
or click on this/his link to take you there directly.
www.fantasycapping.com/illman
SR Vegas


HandiGambling will remain a weekly feature here on FormBlog. The Breeders' Cup Handicapping League seems like fun so I thought we'd give it a try.

***

ok, I deleted the Blue Boxers, which was last year's league. I've tried to join Dan's league, but keep getting wrong name/password. I obviously have the right password, but what is the league name? I tried "Illman" DRF Illman" and "Drfillman" nothing works. I even went for the "Illmancheats" league name, but that didn't work either, lol.
Laura

Laura
It is DRFIllman. All one word with DRFI in caps and the rest lower case.
Dick W


***
*The links to the five most recent blogs (and blog comments) are listed below:

http://www.drf.com/blogs/work-all-week-wins-again

http://www.drf.com/blogs/royal-ascot-review

http://www.drf.com/blogs/weekend-stakes-opinions-8

http://www.drf.com/blogs/five-star-effort

http://www.drf.com/blogs/bayern-back-track


***

Check out the weekend video previews at the following link:

http://www.drf.com/events/weekend-stakes-previews-picks-analysis-more

***

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman

***

Congrats to Gerry V. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling race.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.

Let's go with Saturday's Belmont Derby Invitational for this week's race.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
---------------------------------

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

AttachmentSize
Copy of Formblog Woodbine Turf 6-27-14.xls73.5 KB
BELMONT DERBY.pdf190.98 KB