- DRF Bets
- Handicapping & PPsThoroughbred Past Performances
ReportsPremium NewsDigital PapersHorsemen's Products
- DRF Classic PDF PPs
- DRF Formulator PPs
- DRF EasyForm PPs
- Daily Racing Program PPs
- Equibase PPs
- TrackMaster PPs
- NewsCategoriesTrack Notes
- DRF TV
- StorePast Performances
- Compare all DRF PPs
- DRF Formulator PPs
- DRF Classic PPs
- DRF EasyForm PPs
- Daily Racing Program PPs
- Expanded Closer Looks
- Equibase & Trackmaster PPs - Thoroughbred
Two more for Todd
Todd Pletcher potentially has five sophomores locked and loaded for next Saturday's Kentucky Derby.
Currently lurking in the shadow of CARPE DIEM, MATERIALITY, ITSAKNOCKOUT, STANFORD and MADEFROMLUCKY are two very talented older horses. When the Triple Crown hoopla fades, the handicap division must deal with RACE DAY while the sprinting set braces for a ROCK FALL.
Race Day, profiled in the New Year's Eve edition of the blog (http://www.drf.com/blogs/gulfstream-horses-watch) as well as on the March 18 post (http://www.drf.com/blogs/race-day-moves-forward), brushed off eight rivals in the Grade 2, $600,000 Oaklawn Handicap on April 11.
Sent away the 6 to 5 favorite under John Velazquez, Race Day went right to the front from his inside post position. He took pressure from CARVE and uncoupled stablemate GOLDEN LAD through fractions of 23.18 and 46.71.
Golden Lad dropped away following six furlongs in 1:10.51, but Race Day kept to his business. Velazquez peeked behind for competition at the three-sixteenths pole, cracked Race Day right-handed and the pair were off to the wire. They finished 3 3/4 lengths to the good of Carve, completed the nine furlongs in 1:47.93, and received a 110 Beyer Speed Figure.
Race Day has wonderful tactical speed. He can go to the lead or he can rally from stalking range. In four starts for Pletcher since being purchased for $285,000 at the 2014 Keeneland November auction, Race Day has earned Beyers of 109, 104, 106 and 110 while winning around one turn and two at distances ranging from a mile to nine furlongs.
Pletcher has mentioned the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap as a possible next goal for Race Day. If all goes according to plan, he'll have to face another Pletcher standout, PALACE MALICE, in that race.
*Like Race Day, Rock Fall has emerged from relative obscurity to become one of the fastest horses in his division. A 4-year-old son of Speightstown, Rock Fall sold for $250,000 as a yearling, but didn't make his debut until April 12, 2014.
Following two big wins in New York, Rock Fall was listed as the 2 to 1 favorite on the morning line for the Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga only to be scratched and sent back to Stonestreet Farm due to injury.
He hasn't missed a beat upon returning to the races.
After a victory at Gulfstream on the Ides of March, Rock Fall was entered in a six-furlong money allowance at Keeneland last Saturday.
Although he only faced three others, and his main competition, millionaire DELAUNAY, endured a terrible trip (stumbled badly start, rushed up while four wide), Rock Fall showed the agility of a top sprinter.
He broke a half-length slow beneath Javier Castellano, who, sensing a moderate pace, angled Rock Fall sharply to the inside to press a four-ply dispute through an opening quarter of 22.95.
From there, it was all Rock Fall. He dispatched Delaunay after a half in 45.95, then sprinted home under a hand ride to score by nine lengths in 1:09.64 (final quarter in 23.69, last eighth in 12.07), a number good enough for a 109 Beyer.
Rock Fall's dam, Renda (by Medaglia d'Oro), won a pair of stakes races around two turns as a juvenile filly in 2008. His second dam, Ten Carats (by Capote), placed third in the $45,000 Egret Stakes at five furlongs on turf while the third dam, Miss Waikiki (by Miswaki), was a multiple stakes-placed sprinter.
Expect to see Rock Fall in the Grade 2 True North Stakes at six furlongs on June 5.
Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 4/7/15 - 4/13/15:
1. RACE DAY - 110 - Oaklawn Handicap (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 11Apr15-7OP
2. PROTONICO - 107 - Ben Ali Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - 11Apr15-5KEE
3. ALSVID - 105 - Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 9Apr15-8OP
3. AMERICAN PHAROAH - 105 - Arkansas Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 11Apr15-11OP
5. CALAMONDIN - 104 - Alw 56876NC - 7 Furlongs - 11Apr15-8PRX
6. MOTOWN MEN - 103 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 Mile - 10Apr15-3SA
7. MASOCHISTIC - 102 - Kona Gold Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 11Apr15-5SA
7. TRANSPARENT - 102 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 8Apr15-3KEE
9. VICTORY IS SWEET - 100 - Md Sp Wt 70k - 6 Furlongs - 12Apr15-6AQU
10. FORDUBAI - 99 - OC 50k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 8Apr15-3HAW
10. UNTAPABLE - 99 - Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Apr15-9OP
12. BEHOLDER - 98 - Santa Lucia Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 10Apr15-6SA
12. DIVINING ROD - 98 - Lexington Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Apr15-10KEE
12. STALLWALKIN' DUDE - 98 - Clm 50000 - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 8Apr15-8AQU
15. JACK MILTON - 96 - Maker's 46 Mile (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 10Apr15-9KEE
15. PROCEED - 96 - Sunland Park Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 12Apr15-9SUN
15. WOLF MAN ROCKET - 96 - Northern Spur Stakes - 11Apr15-10OP
18. GOLDEN RIFLE - 94 - OC35k/SAL35k - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 12Apr15-1GP
18. HANDSUP MONEYDOWN - 94 - Clm c-12500N1Y - 6 Furlongs - 11Apr15-3PRX
18. LASSO - 94 - OC12k/SAL12k - 1 Mile (Turf) - OC12k/SAL12k
21. BALL DANCING - 93 - Jenny Wiley Stakes ()G1) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 11Apr15-9KEE
21. CAPTAIN GENIUS - 93 - OC 50k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 10Apr15-5OP
21. DOC GALORE - 93 - Alw 28644N$Y - 6 Furlongs - 12Apr15-7HAW
21. HOLY BOSS - 93 - Bachelor Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 10Apr15-7OP
21. KATIE'S EYES - 93 - Giant's Causeway Stakes - 5 1/12 Furlongs (Turf) - 11Apr15-7KEE
21. NOBLE BIRD - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 8Apr15-8KEE
21. ROGER ROCKET - 93 - OC 20k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 10Apr15-4OP
21. VIA STRATA - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 9Apr15-5KEE
*RACE DAY's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*SKY COMMANDER (2nd with 98 Beyer in the Stallwalkin' Dude race) was claimed for $50,000 by trainer Gary Contessa from Greg DiPrima.
*HANDSUP MONEYDOWN was claimed for $12,500 by trainer Michael Pino from Ramon Preciado.
*COUGAR RIDGE (3rd with 93 Beyer in the Noble Bird race) was claimed for $62,500 by trainer Scooter Dickey from Doug Matthews.
Here are the top WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 4/14/15 - 4/20/15:
1. ROCK FALL - 109 - OC 100k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - 18Apr15-6KEE
2. MIDNIGHT STORM - 105 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 16Apr15-6SA
2. MORENO - 105 - Charles Town Classic (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 16Apr15-6SA
4. CHIEF ISTAN - 101 - Alw 60000N2L - 6 Furlongs - 17Apr15-7KEE
5. GET HAPPY MISTER - 100 - San Simeon Stakes (G3) - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 19Apr15-7SA
6. AZTEC BRAVE (FR) - 98 - Danger's Hour Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Clm 50000
6. GOOGLEADO (ARG) - 98 - Clm 50000 - 6 Furlongs - Clm 50000
6. GRAND ARCH - 98 - Alw 65010C - 1 Mile (Turf) - 15Apr15-6KEE
6. STREAMSIDE - 98 - Alw 34491NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 19Apr15-7GG
10. HOUSE OF SOLE - 97 - Md Sp Wt 29k - 6 Furlongs - 18Apr15-6HAW
10. PIQUANT - 97 - OC 100k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - OC 100k/C -N
12. BLAME JIM - 95 - Alw 47480N1X - 6 Furlongs - 18Apr15-8PRX
12. HEREDITARY - 95 - Alw 58650N1X - 1 1/8 Miles - 16Apr15-4KEE
12. KHARAFA - 95 - Alw 56256N3X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 19Apr15-8KEE
12. WHISKEY TICKET - 95 - Illinois Derby (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - 18Apr15-9HAW
16. BLUEGRASS CHAT - 94 - Clm c-20000 - 1 Mile - 19Apr15-5PRX
16. LA VERDAD - 94 - Distaff Handicap (G2) - 6 Furlongs - 18Apr15-2AQU
18. ADAPTOR - 93 - Clm 25000N2L - 1 Mile - 19Apr15-2PRX
18. BOND VIGILANTE - 93 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 20Apr15-6PRX
18. RUSSELL ROAD - 93 - Confucius Say Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 18Apr15-6CT
21. BLACKTYPE (FR) - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 15Apr15-5AQU
21. GALIANA - 92 - Primonetta Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 18Apr15-7PIM
21. QUEEN OF THE SAND (IRE) - 92 - Santa Barbara Handicap (G3) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 18Apr15-7SA
21. TALK SHOW MAN - 91 - Henry Clark Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 18Apr15-10PIM
21. YAHILWA - 92 - Sixty Sails Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - 18Apr15-5HAW
*ROCK FALL's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*BLUEGRASS CHAT was claimed for $20,000 by trainer Michael Pino from Richard Vega.
I noticed that Johnny V. chose Carpe Diem over Materiality. What are your thoughts? How much does this impact your thoughts when making derby selections (Minus Post Positions)?
It won't have much impact at all. CARPE DIEM was considered Pletcher's first string after the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and he's done nothing this year to indicate that he's no longer the first string. Materiality ran a brilliant race in the Florida Derby, but Carpe Diem is the more accomplished horse. It isn't surprising that he chose Carpe Diem, but I wouldn't downgrade Materiality too much because of the decision.
For those of you beginning to come down with a dose of Kentucky Derby fever, I've posted the lifetime past performances of the last 22 winners. Let me know if you find any interesting patterns.
Annie and SR Vegas have compiled a second updated version of "The 2015 MKB Book of Kentucky Derby Prospects." I have attached it to the bottom of this blog post. Enjoy!
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
Remember to tune in to DRF LIVE's streaming coverage. I'll be with Matt Bernier recapping, previewing, handicapping and, hopefully, winning.
Here's the schedule:
Wednesday - Friday: 12:30 - 1:30 ET
Saturday: 2:00 ET thru last graded stakes race
Congrats to Rodney for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling tournament.
Let's go with Saturday's Miami Mile at Gulfstream for this week's exercise.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|RACE DAY.pdf||652.12 KB|
|Rock Fall.pdf||651.24 KB|
|2015 MKB Bio Document 3 31 15.pdf||459.01 KB|
|Copy of Formblog Jenny Wiley 4-11-15.xls||74.5 KB|
My contacts in KY say the following : Stanford is out of the Derby!!! Will be scratched in about an hour! Whackymacky out!!
Second attempt at posting C "Correct" contenders is a function of handicapping style---speed handicapping vs. trip handicapping, or breeding, trainer stats handicapping, or a combination thereof. Also, your philosophy determines how you choose contenders. In my case, I'm ranking who I think the best horses are from 1 through N. Obviously, the best horses tend to be lower in odds than slower/less form full horses. However, I still have plenty of longshots as contenders. 10, 20, 30-1 shots are fairly common. A couple of months ago I actually had a $125.00 contender win---things got really exciting when I had the 2nd, and 3rd choices as well. Unfortunately, I missed the 4th choice. AlydarandEasy
SR Vegas, Finally! I was beginning to get worried. I was about ready to send you an e-mail asking if everything was alright. Glad you're back. No Derby for you this year. Your MADEFROMLUCKY could have run, but apparently was too lazy in his final work, and trainer said "no". Oh well, you can tag along with CHALKY and Tencendur. :) Annie
Putting it out there: I've been puzzling and puzzling til my puzzler is sore..........as Dr. Suess would say. What an amazing crop of three year olds this is! Here is my handicapping methodology. Despite seeing "the sheets, I don't understand the math, so I don't use them. So, I try to use my combination of EP/LP from Brisnets, visual assessments of stretch runs vs. come home times, pedigree, visual assessments of horse at CD and that intangible, class. When in doubt, a silly name, sentiment or a grey horse is a final determination. :) I feel incredibly at a loss being deprived of my typical week of watching horses go about their normal gallops, jogs, baths, schooling and other activities actually at Churchill. It is hard for me as a visual handicapper to be missing my most potent final tool in narrowing down my final choices. So, going in I focused in on the top horses I liked overall and they were: Frosted, Dortmund, Carpe Diem, American Pharoah, Materiality, Mubtaahij, International Star, Firing Line and Danzig Moon. The draw just eliminated Carpe Diem (as if his temper wasn't enough) and Materiality. Firing Line may have kicked some butt at Sunland, but he failed the stretch test in his duels with Dortmund and their will be even more horses to battle on Saturday. That leaves me with Frosted, Dortmund, American Pharoah, Mubtaahij, International Star and Danzig Moon. Frosted and Mubtaahij win the pedigree contest. Dortmund and Frosted win the pretty. International Star and Danzig Moon win the "alternative running style" contest. Mubtaahij and American Pharoah win the undefinable "class" contest. American Pharoah wins the most lovely work I have ever seen contest. The horse just floats. Someone likened his "hang time" in his stride to Michael Jordan's in the air. I get that. I rode dressage horses for years and when you have felt it, you can see it. He has "it". But that damn bar shoe bugs me. Now, why do I like Mubtaahij? In no particular order, the trainer, his turn of foot, his breeding, the distance of his wins, "class"and he broke his maiden against older and won against older stakes horses already. Last, I saw a great picture of Tendendur trying to savage him as he walked the shedrow. M didn't give an inch and the look on his face was hilarious, it was like "Are you kidding me?" The horse is cool, calm and collected which is an asset. Danzig Moon has recovered from his illness at Tampa and International Star is a cool guy with a lot of bravery. Both close. I don't see either winning unless there is a duel and pace collapse, but they are the nicest closers, in my opinion. Dortmund concerns me a little because I think he is a little hotter tempered than we have heard and I would have preferred he drew further outside. Frosted is one of my top picks based on way of going at CD (I've seen a bit of video), EP/LP figures, pedigree, speed figs, pedigree and finally, the gray factor. So, I will fool around with some exotics, but for the win, I am Frosted, Mubtaahij, Dortmund and American Pharoah. So, can we do our Handigambling bets, if so, all of the above is my analysis and this is my bet: $4 Trifecta box 6,8,15,18 (Mubtaahij, Dortmund, Frosted, American Pharoah $4 to Show 17 (Mr Zee-in honor of YFL who has clued me in that no matter how hopeless the horse looks, D Wayne Lukas must be respected)
DavidM9999 Inspired Voyage is an inspired play...also goes with an under rated trainer....he knows his stuff.... Other thoughts on a really good card that I won't be seeing...because many parts of Baltimore are not hospitable at this time..I have several clients to call on(and have called on already) I get into town very early as BAD GUYS sleep late....I will be out of here soon. 1st...How can I be "on" any other horse than Patrick Rocks.....seems well prepped as well. 2nd The Sharp horse will get creamed in the wagering.....I will go next door for a comebacker who might be ready. 3rd With these bottom level claimer maiden claimers anything can happen...I am going with a horse with just 4 lifetime starts....Alivia...a straight flier. 4th Minescape could be dangerous along with the cleverly trained Silver Legend 5th Every so often Alexandra White will be a bombs away winner...she can train...a little. 6th Royal Renege...trainer has some good turfers...and knows lots about conditioning. 7th Princess Katniss...heard some good things about this one. 8th Lady Terp is on my watch list...but usually disappoints. I like Southern Equity 9th Chapel Gap...didn't like the ride last out.
Steve T, Could you explain what a cascading exacta is? Thank for the heads up on Awesome Elle. SR Vegas, Welcome back! DavidM99, Rooting for your colt's pedigree page to improve. Maybe next time. C, Couldn't agree with you more on start riding tactics and potential danger. In addition to praying that none of my favorite horses are outside Mr. Zee in the stretch, I have that STUPID California steward decision to consider too. Hopefully the CD stewards are more competent, but then again, they are the ones that let Life At Ten in the gate. TBTA rant: It's official. I HATE the merger of TVG and HRTV. I had previously relegated it to the really dislike, but we'll see if it gets better zone. Seeing that THE Works would come back gave me hope. Well, it was darn near WORTHLESS! There was not one major piece of information on there that hadn't been previously released or video'd and widely distributed. Unless you want a comprehensive one stop shop for all the final works, it was completely worthless. The only thing I learned from the entire thing is that maybe Caleb Keller has some hope as a decent announcer and reporter. He is fairly holistic in his approach and adds in some nuggets from trainers that other commentators didn't ferret out. The sad thing is that all the wonderful morning coverage of the goings on at CD on the days leading up to the Derby are all gone. It is just endless repeats of the same show, over and over and over and that show was nothing special. SO DISAPPOINTING. Feel free in joining me in writing emails of complaints. This is supposed to be the week of all weeks when it comes to racing degeneracy and geekdom and it has been completely ruined for me. As Mike A says, don't tell me, show me. I was sick and tired of reading what other people think of the horses and had really looked forward to seeing for myself. Instead, I got rehashed final works of horses from tracks all over the country and almost no footage of horses on the actual track where the races are run. Yes, I am really mad and really disappointed. Racing has got to have the most inept leaders of any sport in the country.
David, any other insights on the races tomorrow? In particular, any news of training news or tips from the backstretch? I really like Prontico too. According to my figures he's the deserving favorite and right in line to come back with another quality performance. I'll be on the pick 4s and 5s. Best of luck.
Steve T – your Derby selections are definitive. I applaud strong opinions. I have not seen an exacta cascade like that. So thanks for sharing it. I know you put a ton of work into the race. In 121 seconds on Saturday the answer will come. Lady of Victory ran well in the 2015 comeback at BEL. It was the kind of race one could build on. 6F likely is not her game so she was out-footed early then made a stretch move to be in the mix at the finish for a close third. She came home in 22.94 and 38.5 MPH in last 8th. Not blow me away numbers but fine considering Mott and the layoff. A stretch out next so we will see what is in the tank. I don’t like much on the CD card so will wait for tomorrow with a couple playbacks for me. PIM, BEL and SA will be my tracks of choice for the near future. At PIM today races 4-7 with mix of turf and MSW has some interest to me. In race 5 Inspired Voyage has a look at 12-1. LRL debut was solid after missing the break with 8L of ground made up late. Then a speed and fade in start two in a paceless PIM affair. The turf may suit being out of Northern Afleet/Wild Rush. Weight off and class drop add to appeal. This is exactly the space I play into where dirt form possibly muds up things. So I will see if the filly can turf at an elevated number. This will be primary play with defensive use of Stormy Salute and Sally Pollock with other legs A’s. In an interesting tidbit on UAE Derby someone posted on DRF+ there is no run up in Dubai. I suppose the clock starts over there when a rational person expects …when the gates open not down the track at arbitrary spots. God bless America but sometimes I do scratch my head. Draw – it happened yesterday. It will be analyzed about as much as Billy the Kid’s, Wyatt Earp and Doc Holliday’s. I always leaned to Billy personally but all three are in my trifecta box. AP starts out in Jefferson County while Diem starts inside Louisville city limits. Dortmund is in the middle. Poor El Kabier and Bolo have to start next to the Jolly Green Giant. I wonder if Ocho’s connections said Ouch but he will fire out for 6F then fade back into being a sprinter if he survives. I do pray all horses survive the ordeal in 2015. Note to jocks – please wrap them up once hope is lost. Some are overmatched in this spot. I also wonder if AP or the Derby winner will be the star of May 2 or will Bayern run so fast that the buzz will be all about him. Seek Again returns to haunt me again. Last year I really needed a bit more to knock off King Kong in the Turf Classic. We all know Seek Again likes an inside run unlike DavidM9999 who hates them on grass on closers. Something must give. Usually it is my beloved aluma wallet. I don’t think Honor Code is anywhere near 4-1 tomorrow. In my view it is a two horse affair for betting purposes with Prontico and Honor Code. I actually think Honor Code gets the favoritism role. Prontico will get my money. He has been very very good to me. The last race at KEE was a canter versus a field of nobodies, has been’s and never was’s. He beat them well. Honor Code flew late in a “visual” tour de force.
Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Unlocks Secret Of Ancestral Herd To Determine Outcome Of Kentucky Derby 141: http://bit.ly/1bXIcA7 Mubtaahij top Derby list.
Affordable $1.00 Superfecta Formulas Part 1V---Some Helpfull Hints + Derby Supers? PASS UNPLAYABLE RACES When playing $1.00 superfectas, you must make sure that you have a clearly discernable key. If he is close to one or more of the other contenders, coming off a long layoff, has an adverse trainer or jockey change, has mediocre or unusually spaced workouts, or any one of a number of question marks, then you must downgrade him and select another key. If that's not possible, then you have no choice but to pass the race. Also pass the race if you have more than 50% unknowns such as away horses, and/or first time starters. Unlike ten-cent supers, you can't play it for a smaller than normal amount "on suspicion". KNOW YOUR TRACK Some tracks are notorious for being "dawdlers" when it comes to loading the horses. Belmont/Saratoga (but not Aqueduct), Tampa Bay, and Gulfstream treat zero minutes to post as a mere suggestion that you might want to think about getting your bet in. While other tracks, particularly Churchill Downs, Oaklawn, and Finger Lakes are P.J.Swifty when it comes to loading the horses. I've seen Finger Lakes actually start loading with one minute to post! Since most of Churchill's races are being nationally televised, they are going to be extra punctual. Being just one minute late per race, will make the printed post times off by ten minutes by the end of the program. And this isn't counting natural delays such as: photo finishes, inquiries, accidents, or malfunctioning starting gates. If you have access to a semi-private betting machine, then you should be okay if you make your bets at two minutes to post. However, if you're stuck in the grandstand with the rest of the peons, then you're probably going to need to get on line five to ten minutes to post. BETTING SUPERFECTAS AT MORE THAN ONE TRACK Lets say you're playing six superfectas at Churchill, and nine superfectas at other tracks, and you manage to hit a $1,200.00 super and an $800.00 one. You're rolling in dough, right? Not necessarily. The superfectas at Churchill will be $1.00 ones costing $30.00 apiece. If you are just playing ten-cent superfectas at the other tracks, then you will only collect $60.00 and $40.00 for a total of $100.00. The cost of the superfectas alone at Churchill comes to $180.00, so you will be guaranteed a loss, even though you had two decent hits. This is not good for the psyche. My suggestion, if you're going to play Churchill and other tracks this weekend, is to play at least THIRTY-CENT superfectas at the other tracks. This way instead of collecting just $100.00, you'll collect $300.00. Of course, if one or both superfectas are hit at Churchill, then you really will be rolling in dough! Derby Superfectas I tried extrapolating my 14-horse superfecta formula to the Derby's 20-horse field. Instead of just one key, I decided to use three. I also expanded the number of savers and g.f.n.'s accordingly, in order to have sufficient coverage. Unfortunately, when I got through with them, they looked like something out of a fun house mirror. The total cost came to a whopping $1,650.00! That's only affordable if your name is Bill Gates. Therefor, no Derby supers for me, I'll probably play some exactas with my keys, contenders and savers. AlydarandEasy