04/13/2016 3:10PM

Two to follow

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There were a couple of very nice sprint performances last week.

*SUBTLE INDIAN, an Oaklawn-loving 4-year-old, blasted to the top in the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap and kept right on going to the tune of a 102 Beyer Speed Figure. What was impressive about the effort is that there was a good amount of speed in the race and Subtle Indian was unfazed.

Most notable of the early-types was CINCO CHARLIE, a graded winner that had just grabbed the Duncan F. Kenner Stakes at Fair Grounds by showcasing sub-22 gas. There was the expectation of a strong pace war, but Subtle Indian was simply quicker and they couldn't reel him in late.
 


Subtle Indian has won 7 of 9 lifetime, including four in a row. He's 6 for 7 at Oaklawn. From a pedigree standpoint, it's not surprising that Subtle Indian is fast. His sire, Indian Charlie, produces swift ones while the dam, Subtle Aly (by French Envoy), was an undefeated graded stakes winner at two.

Trained by Robertino Diodoro, Subtle Indian will now ship to Southern California to prepare for either the Kona Gold Stakes at Santa Anita or the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Stakes at Pimlico. Both of those races are on May 21. 


*UNIFIED is very lightly-raced, but he's handled everything thrown at him in a short amount of time. A $325,000 yearling purchase by Candy Ride out of stakes-placed sprinter Union City (by Dixie Union), Unified captured his career debut on February 21 at Gulfstream with a 99 Beyer. He went right to the top in that race and was a comfortable winner despite being very late to change leads in the stretch.

Last Saturday, in the Grade 3 Bay Shore Stakes for 3-year-olds at Aqueduct, Unified successfully stretched out to seven panels while racing on a muddy track for the first time. Again, he displayed excellent speed, but he changed leads on cue this time around and never gave anyone else a chance in the stretch.
 


The Beyer came back a 102 and the Jimmy Jerkens-trained Unified has lots of options for his next appearance. What seems likely is that he'll stretch out in distance at either Belmont, Pimlico or Churchill Downs. Although you always wonder how these sprinters will react going a route, the pedigree gives hope as the dam is a full sister to a nine-furlong graded winner. This is the female family of champion Dehere.


*I'm not sure what to make of the three Kentucky Derby preps from last weekend. The Wood Memorial was run on a wet track that got progressively deeper and more tiring, and featured a shockingly-good run from a seemingly-overmatched maiden. The Santa Anita Derby was contested over a similarly tiring "off" surface and was run in fast-early, slow-late fashion. EXAGGERATOR was very visually impressive, but one must wonder how the track conditions affected the race.

As for the Blue Grass, the pace completely collapsed with BRODY'S CAUSE (11th after the first call), MY MAN SAM (14th and last) and CHERRY WINE (12th) rounding out the trifecta. Also, only one horse won from on the lead at Keeneland on Saturday. That horse, LIMOUSINE LIBERAL, was odds-on.

The search for my Derby horse continues...

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 4/5/16 - 4/11/16:

1. AMI'S FLATTER - 105 - Commonwealth Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 9Apr16-7KEE
2. EXAGGERATOR - 103 - Santa Anita Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 9Apr16-8SA
2. KID CRUZ - 103 - Excelsior Stakes (G3) - 1 1/4 Miles - 9Apr16-3AQU
2. MACAGONE - 103 - Danger's Hour Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 10Apr16-8AQU
5. SALUTOS AMIGOS - 102 - Carter Handicap (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 9Apr16-11AQU
5. SUBTLE INDIAN - 102 - Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 10Apr16-9OP
5. TOLEDO EDDIE - 102 - OC 80k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 10Apr16-7AQU
5. UNIFIED - 102 - Bay Shore Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 9Apr16-9AQU
9. LIMOUSINE LIBERAL - 100 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 9Apr16-2KEE
9. SHEER DRAMA - 100 - Madison Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 9Apr16-9KEE
9. SIOUX - 100 - Alw 72000N1X - 1 Mile - 8Apr16-8AQU
9. WHAT A VIEW - 100 - Thunder Road Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 9Apr16-9SA
13. ENOLA GRAY - 99 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 10Apr16-7SA
13. SUPERMASON - 99 - Premiere Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 7Apr16-1LS
13. UNDRAFTED - 99 - Shakertown Stakes (G2) - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 9Apr16-8KEE
16. AMERICAN FREEDOM - 98 - Md Sp Wt 57k - 7 Furlongs - 9Apr16-12SA
16. QUICK CASABLANCA (CHI) - 98 - San Juan Capistrano Stakes - 1 7/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Apr16-8SA
16. RAY'SWARRIOR - 98 - Alw 79000N2L - 6 Furlongs - 6Apr16-8OP
19. PASSION FOR ACTION - 97 - Jacques Cartier Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 9Apr16-8WO
19. SENSITIVELY - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 7Apr16-3SA
19. TRIPLE THREAT (FR) - 97 - Alw 59796C - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Apr16-4KEE
19. TROUBLE KID - 97 - Alw 25000s - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 11Apr16-6PRX
23. BANNER BILL - 96 - OC35k/SAL25k - 1 Mile - 8Apr16-7OP
23. CATALINA RED - 96 - Hilton Garden Inn/Hampton Inn and Suites Sprint - 6 Furlongs - 9Apr16-5TAM
23. HAVANNA BELLE (IRE) - 96 - OC 75k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 7Apr16-7SA

*The lifetime past performances for AMI'S FLATTER are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***


Video stakes analyses for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

Matt Bernier, Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis for Oaklawn, Keeneland, Los Alamitos and more beginning at 3pm ET Saturday afternoon on live.drf.com.


***

Congrats to Alfredo for winning last week's HandiGambling challenge.

Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Alfredo selected Saturday's Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn Park for this week's exercise.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.

The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING .

1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.

2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.

3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.

4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.

HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40

$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100

Thanks Dan!
Harpo

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL) 

AttachmentSize
AMI'S FLATTER.pdf647.97 KB
Copy of HG SPECIAL 4 9 16 Wood-Bluegrass- SA Derby.xls52 KB
HGARKDERBY.pdf183.71 KB