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Turf Sires to Watch, Some Breeders' Cup Info
Let's get to some of your questions:
Here is a question for everyone (yes Dan, you too!):
Who are the top 5 (active) turf sires in North America? I am looking for opinions from the trenches
Let's look at some of the numbers:
2010 Leading North American Turf Stallions By Earnings:
1. Dynaformer (107 runners, 34 winners, 4 stakes-winners, $2,974,112 earnings, $6,000 median earnings)
2. *El Prado (79 runners, 28 winners, 3 stakes-winners, $2,705,114 earnings, $9,870 median earnings)
3. City Zip (79 runners, 24 winners, 8 stakes-winners, $2,402,337 earnings, $4,000 median earnings)
4. Stormy Atlantic (130 runners, 39 winners, 6 stakes-winners, $2,344,508 earnings, $2,912 median earnings)
5. Smart Strike (142 runners, 42 winners, 4 stakes-winners, $2,093,611 earnings, $4,756 median earnings)
2010 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Wins:
1. More Than Ready (127 runners, 45 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $1,852,838 earning, $3,884 median earnings)
2. Smart Strike
3. Stormy Atlantic
4. Distorted Humor (102 runners, 35 winners, 1 stake-winner, $1,707,128 earnings, $5,341 median earnings)
4. Giant's Causeway (117 runners, 35 winners, 2 stakes-winners, $1,998,875 earnings, $4,230 median earnings)
2010 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Median Earnings (out of the top 100 stallions by total earnings):
1. Freud (64 runners, 27 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $1,408,296 earnings, $12,539 median earnings)
2. Theatrical (IRE) (28 runners, 12 winners, 4 stakes-winners, $1,639,688 earnings, $11,820 median earnings)
3. Pure Precision (17 runners, 10 winners, 1 stake-winner, $456,865 earnings, $10,176 median earnings)
4. El Prado
5. Unusual Heat (67 runners, 20 winners, 3 stakes-winners, $1,908,574 earnings, $9,130 median earnings)
2009 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Earnings:
1. Dynaformer (115 runners, 31 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $3,482,322 earnings, $7,825 median earnings)
2. Unusual Heat (92 runners, 32 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $2,737,387 earnings, $6,526 median earnings)
3. Giant's Causeway (109 runners, 36 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $2,544,407 earnings, $5,400 median earnings)
4. Stormy Atlantic (134 runners, 38 winners, 9 stakes-winners, $2,409,558 earnings, $2,066 median earnings)
5. Tale of the Cat (96 runners, 24 winners, 4 stakes-winners, $2,360,198, $2,156 median earnings)
2009 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Wins:
1. Stormy Atlantic
2. Giant's Causeway
3. Smart Strike (136 runners, 35 winners, 3 stakes-winners, $1,897,533 earnings, $3,572 median earnings)
4. Langfuhr (111 runners, 34 winners, 3 stakes-winners, $1,785,985 earnings, $3,939 median earnings)
5. Mizzen Mast (80 runners, 32 winners, 7 stakes-winners, $1,765,391 earnings, $5,528 median earnings)
5. Unusual Heat
2009 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Median Earnings (out of the top 100 stallions by total earnings):
1. Anabaa (8 runners, 2 winners, 1 stakes-winner, $1,260,599 earnings, $22,340 median earnings)
2. Rahy (56 runners, 24 winners, 3 stakes-winners, $1,801,030 earnings, $10,800 median earnings)
3. Johar (37 runners, 19 winners, 1 stakes-winner, $899,332 earnings, $9,720 median earnings)
4. **Diesis (GB) (10 runners, 6 winners, 1 stakes-winner, $854,036 earnings, $9,318 median earnings)
5. Avenue of Flags (3 runners, 2 winners, 1 stakes-winner, $687,420, $9,000 median earnings)
2008 Leading North American Turf Stallions By Earnings:
1. ***Chester House (56 runners, 28 winners, 10 stakes-winners, $2,970,617 earnings, $18,549 median earnings)
2. Unusual Heat (91 runners, 29 winners, 4 stakes-winners, $2,894,189 earnings, $8,942 median earnings)
3. Stormy Atlantic (108 runners, 37 winners, 8 stakes-winners, $2,816,767 earnings, $2,622 median earnings)
4. Belong to Me (58 runners, 23 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $2,785,301 earnings, $3,290 median earnings)
5. Dynaformer (115 runners, 34 winners, 6 stakes-winners, $2,710,115 earnings, $5,350 median earnings)
2008 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Wins:
1. Stormy Atlantic
1. Smart Strike (121 runners, 37 winners, 5 stakes-winners, $2,438,808 earnings, $4,700 median earnings)
4. Lemon Drop Kid (90 runners, 35 winners, 6 stakes-winners, $2,013,336 earnings, $6,308 median earnings)
5. Royal Academy (98 runners, 32 winners, 2 stakes-winners, $1,765,957 earnings, $5,698 median earnings)
5. Giant's Causeway (110 runners, 32 winners, 6 stakes-winners, $2,489,621 earnings, $5,576 median earnings)
2008 Leading North American Turf Stallions by Median Earnings (out of the top 100 stallions by total earnings):
1. Chester House
2. Kingmambo (30 runners, 11 winners, 2 stakes-winners, $1,046,933 earnings, $11,120 median earnings)
3. ****Lear Fan (32 runners, 9 winners, 2 stakes-winners, $987,632 earnings, $10,458 median earnings)
4. *****Sahm (26 runners, 13 winners, 2 stakes-winners, $1,214,472 earnings, $9,415 median earnings)
5. Glitterman (26 runners, 10 winners, 1 stakes-winners, $630,559 earnings, $9,360 median earnings)
*El Prado died in 2009.
**Diesis died in 2006.
***Chester House died in 2003
****Lear Fan died in 2008
*****Sahm died in 2007
Is Formulator the only option for me if I want the times displayed in 1/100's?
That's correct. The PDF version of the past performances will display times in fifths of a second while the Formulator will do both fifths and hundreths.
Dan could you please find the PPS for two horses I remember running at Saratoga in 1969. Sun Cross was my first big thrill, while Point Gammon was my first big realization that this was not an easy game. Thanks
Gordon, I wish I could, but the system I use to generate past performances can't locate them. I'm guessing they're too old for the system. Sorry about that.
first time pp'er long time reader. Could you please list the track records for CD at the BC distances and also the pp's for the BC record holders at the distance. Records are made to be broken, looking for some fine equine performances in nov.
Churchill Downs Track Records:
Filly and Mare Sprint - 7 Furlongs: 1:20.50
Juvenile Fillies/Juvenile - 1 1/16 Miles: 1:41.27
Ladies' Classic - 1 1/8 Miles: 1:47.28
Turf Sprint - 5 Furlongs (Turf): 55.45
Juvenile Filies Turf/Juvenile Turf/Mile - 1 Mile (Turf): 1:33.78
Filly and Mare Turf - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf): 2:13.00
Marathon - 1 3/4 Miles: 2:59.64
Dirt Mile - 1 Mile: 1:33.57
Sprint - 6 Furlongs: 1:07.55
Classic - 1 1/4 Miles: 1:59.40
Turf - 1 1/2 Miles:
Past Performances for Fastest BC winners are available at the bottom of this blog posting:
Congrats to David H. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. For this week's race, he chooses Thursday's sixth race at Charles Town.
***PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING***
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
|Fastest BC winners.pdf||138.18 KB|
i believe that the one that wins the big race will have to have pars of 85/103/100-112 at a mile and a eighth to win look back at results you will see a pattern
Mike A.- Man, sometimes i wonder if your looking at some special pp's that no one else has. I just dont know how you see the things you do sometimes. Let me begin by saying that this post is not an attempt to blow smoke up anyones you know what. I am just awarding just praise where it is due. When i read your post this afternoon in which you gave your thoughts on the 8th race from Keeneland, i thought you were nuts after i looked at the pp's. You had selected the 7 horse Bergerac as your top pick (30-1 ML). If some schmo had posted this as his selection i would have given no thought but since you are a proven commodity here i decided to dig deeper. and deeper. and deeper. Nothing! I just couldnt make a case for this horse. Now i know he didnt win but he ran one hell of a race finishing 3rd and just missing 2nd. He proved he did belong in that race and was a genuine contender. I was not alone in my skepticism considering the fact he went off at 37-1 i believe. If one was inclined to use your picks a $1 tri keying the even money favorite 10 over the 4 horses you liked would have gotten you back 250.00 on the 12.00 investment. When your playing horses like this at 37-1 you dont have to be right often. An occasional win and an occasional exotic you catch when these types run 2nd or 3rd, and you will be ahead of most in this game. I give you credit. It takes somes guts and confidence to come on a blog like this (one in which you are a well known contributor, not just an occasional drifter) BEFORE the race and make selections using a 30-1 ML on top and another 30-1 and 2 10-1's underneath. I emphasized BEFORE because on another blog i participate in there are several who like to tell everyone AFTER the race how they had such and such a longshot. Then they proceed to make a case for why they used the horse. Again, this is after the race, quite a bit more difficult to state such case for a horse before it is run. Kudos. I am convinced that being able to spot these type of longshot horses that run big is what seperates the winners from guys like me that are just chasing a score here and there. Constantly feeling demoralized cuz the 2-1 favorite we played on top of our exotics fizzled out. There are several on here including you, Mickey, Van Savant, Steve T., and Alan (others im sure too) that have shown time and time again on this blog the ability to spot some of these live horses given little chance by the majority of the betting public. For me, i have found enough difficulty in the more attainable goals of being able to assess a favorites chance and being able to seperate other contenders for win/exotics. Being able to spot these longer shots which involve some creative and/or critical thinking and analysis have proven to be much more difficult for me. Mike often you post here your opinion concerning the over emphasis on beyer figures that many have when handicapping a turf race. I think you might be on to something. I consider beyers to be a necessary evil in certain types of races. They are of utmost importance when handicapping races for older horses with established form on dirt (especially the higher class races, in the lower class races often form becomes the top factor imo). In these types of races often one can confidently eliminate half the field or more based on the fact they are not fast enough to win. However, there is a problem with a reliance on the beyers. The problem is that these type horses with top figs get bet down. they get bet way down. I believe the beyers are by far the single biggest handicapping factor that influence odds. Would anyone here argue with that? My neighbor handicaps races and he can tell you what the last 3 beyers were for a particuliar horse and maybe the class/type of race he ran them in, but he couldnt tell what place the horse finished in any of the 3 races. Im not exagerrating either. And i dont think he's the only one....maybe he is the utmost lazy extreme, but most bet based on those big bold black figures that practically jump off the page. I think i need to start looking at races with a de-emphasis on these figures. And turf racing might be a good place to start. Im sure ill miss some top fig horses that win going away at 2-1 but by approaching these races from some different perspectives i may allow myself the chance to catch an occassional number. Easier said then done. Has anyone here ever tried concealing the beyers with a strip of paper when handicapping a race and not looking at them till after you've given the once over and formed some opinions. Ive heard others suggest trying this to me. Oh well, the battle goes on......good nite all. eric t .
Afternoon all... PGM Thanks for the pin point accuracy on Charles Town. I was only joking.LOL I have played that track a few times and have followed Mike A's philosophy about the inside bias. Only the big races with the West Coast or New York Shipper's will get my $$$$$$. Great comeback though on your part. Calder has been taken off of the Turf. Bummer. :( I was looking at a few. What are the following numbers?? $63.10 / $5.90 / $22.00 / $11.00 / $17.00 / $43.30 / $15.80 / $19.30 Ave: $24.68 Answer??? Belmont Race #5 off of the Turf!!!! Spot play.... Belmont Park Race #1 #9 Stevil $400 Win / Place $100 DB #9 / #2 Rock America Good Luck Today!!!!! Whackymacky Out!!!
New territory for me. More guesswork than study. $50 EXACTA BOX : 2/3
HG Charles Town This track is not a long drive from my home. Looking at this ridiculous field affirms my decision never to venture there. I will toss the 4-Stella M with the never win (2 for 61) trainer. Ditto the 5-Short Hill Kit Kat with the 5 for 106 trainer (best Beyer and all). If 8-Flo Jo’s Afair wins, there will be a celebration amongst the 5-79 trainer and the rider 3 for 118. The other 7 are all contenders if you ignore some horrible starts. I will take a flyer on the 22% trainer and key the 3-Pagan Priestess. I believe she may go favored or close to it, if she is to win. If she is “dead on the board”, there could be issues. $75 to win on #3 $25 Exacta 3 over 6
HG CT I'm keying the #2 Glackety on top of my tris. It's encouraging that Dogwood did not "throw away" this filly after she got trounced in NY. Rather, they send her to Chris Grove who looks to have had her for about a month now. Expecting a ground-saving, tracking trip from the inside, and hope she can kick clear in the stretch. $14 tri 2 / 3,7 / 3,5,6,7 $8 tri 2 / 3,7 / 9 Good luck all !!!
jim tully, Last year alone Zenyatta, Vale of York, and Dancing in Silks were pre-entered for two races. Maybe that's not a productive way to narrow the contenders?
HandiG at Charlestown I am guessing the horses that should win the race Glackety, Short Hill Kit Kat and Miss Quick Punch will take all the money. Now if I am going to finally win HG and have learned anything from betting on two-year old maidens, it's that anything can happen. So, I'll take all those girls underneath of a horse that should not win the race. $4Super 1,3,8,9/2,5,7/2,5,7/2,5,7 = $96. $2 Ex box 7/9 = $4.
Dan, Like you I threw out Trappe Shot in the mile and a quarterTravers because he was also entered in the 7 furlong Kings Bishop the same day leading me to the conclusion he wasn't really live for either race because the connections couldn't make up their minds which distance he was suited for. I was wondering how many horses have won Breeder's Cup races that have been pre-entered for two races?
Charles Town Maidens Not much to go on, so going with trainer stats. $50 tri 6/3,7/3,7