10/02/2013 12:19PM

In Trouble

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I'm not sure how far he'll go, but IN TROUBLE has been very impressive in both of his starts for trainer Tony Dutrow.

The 2-year-old colt was bought back for $14,000 as a weanling, sold for $15,000 last October, and was purchased for $120,000 in April after breezing a furlong in 10.1 seconds. 

Sent to Dutrow, the son of Tiz Wonderful showed some excellent works at Fair Hill and made his career debut in a loaded maiden special weight going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga on August 10. He broke sharply under Joe Rocco Jr., but was content to track the solid pace set by favored SOUND OF FREEDOM and TIZNOWFORAMERICA.  Rocco asked In Trouble turning for home and the pair swung three wide into the stretch.  Sound of Freedom, a Todd Pletcher-trained son of War Front, game In Trouble a fight, but was no match in the final sixteenth.  In Trouble was flattered when Sound of Freedom (83 Beyer), Tiznowforamerica (78 Beyer) and fourth-place finisher MOSLER (78 Beyer) all returned to graduate.

Last Sunday, in the Grade 2 Futurity at six furlongs, In Trouble broke from the inside post and allowed the speedy CORFU to make an uncontested early lead.  In Trouble always seemed to have that one measured, however, and he drove past Corfu in upper stretch to post a 2 1/4-length victory. 

"I was looking forward to today," Dutrow told track publicity after the Futurity. "I was feeling that we have a talented horse and I'm not surprised at what I saw. I wasn't predicting this, but I'm not surprised. He's pretty good. He's a rough horse in the gate. We've worked with him a lot, and I think that's the only thing you've got to pay attention to."
 
"He broke really sharp," Rocco Jr. added. "I'd rather be outside dictating when we can move than be inside and be under someone else who can force us. It worked out when I saw I could get behind [Corfu] and get outside of him, that's when I went outside and did it. So we had options. I didn't pull him back; I just didn't ask him any more. He was very gentle to rate and did it kindly."

Tiz Wonderful was a very precocious juvenile for trainer Steve Asmussen.  He won first-out at Saratoga by 12 1/2 lengths with a 99 Beyer and then won both the Grade 3 Iroquois and Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. Injuries forced him off the Kentucky Derby trail and he wasn't the same horse when he came back for a couple of starts during the summer of his 3-year-old campaign.  Tiz Wonderful won at distances ranging from 6 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles.

In Trouble's dam, the Grand Slam mare Ballpark Butterfly, didn't make her debut until February of her 4-year-old season and raced three times that year.  Her lone win came in a $25,000 maiden claimer traveling 5 1/2 furlongs over the old Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita. 

The second dam, Miss Lady Bug (by Rough Pearl), was a very versatile performer.  The multiple stakes-winner scored at six furlongs on dirt and 1 1/2 miles on grass.

In Trouble will not ship to Santa Anita for the Breeders' Cup.  Rather, Dutrow will aim for the Grade 2 Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on November 3.  The Nashua, scheduled to be In Trouble's last start this year, is a one-turn mile and the trainer is hoping to gradually stretch him out in distance.
 
***

Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (9/23/13 - 9/29/13)

1. RON THE GREEK - 114 - Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles - Belmont
2. MUCHO MACHO MAN - 110 - Awesome Again (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Santa Anita
3. PRIVATE ZONE - 108 - Vosburgh (G1) - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
4. FORT LARNED - 107 - Homecoming Classic Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Churchill
5. BEHOLDER - 106 - Zenyatta Stakes (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
6. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR - 105 - Beldame Invitational Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
7. LITTLE MIKE - 104 - Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (G1) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
7. TIZ THE TRUTH - 104 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
9. GRAYDAR - 103 - Kelso Handicap (G2) - 1 Mile - Belmont
10. BROADWAY EMPIRE - 99 - Oklahoma Derby (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Remington
11. CHIPS ALL IN - 98 - Eddie D Stakes (G3) - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
11. INDY POINT (ARG) - 98 - John Henry Turf Championship Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
13. CLAWBACK - 96 - Clm 35000B - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
13. LAUGHING (IRE) - 96 - Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Belmont
13. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS - 96 - Rodeo Drive Stakes (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles - Turf - Santa Anita
16. CRAZY ABOUT ME - 95 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
16. RIBO BOBO - 95 - Alw 8000s - 6 Furlongs - Parx
18. BAFFLE ME - 94 - Jazzy Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - Belmont
18. DADDY NOSE BEST - 94 - Remington Green Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Remington
18. FIRE ALARM - 94 - OC c-40k/N3X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
18. FIVE STAR MOMMA - 94 - OC 35k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
18. IN TROUBLE - 94 - Futurity Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
18, RAVALO - 94 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
24. KING DAVID - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Churchill
24. LET'S GET CRACKIN - 93 - OC 40k/N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
24. WIRED BRYAN - 93 - New York Breeders' Futurity Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Finger Lakes

*The lifetime past performances for RON THE GREEK are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*Fire Alarm was claimed for $40,000 by trainer Keith Lebarron from Jorge Navarro.

***

When you get the chance, you're definitely going to want to check out "RACEHORSE," the latest production from Jessica Pacheco, racing analyst at Arlington Park.

"Mother Nature causes some trouble when she turns the heat on Broken Bow, but that pales in comparison to what she has in store for Sugar Kate."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZA6RVHFRjY

More episodes of RACEHORSE can be found on the AP website at:

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/newsvideosblogs/racehorse-video-series


***

SpartanTom
Dan or anyone else, can you explain why Mr. Dooley ran for purse money only in Sunday's 10th at Belmont? I have had him on my watch list since his maiden race, and the notes said that he lost a shoe during the running of the race and was thus running for purse money only. Is losing a shoe during the running of the race considered an equipment change?
St

Spartan Tom,
Mr Dooley lost a shoe behind the gate. Rather than take the time to fix it and delay the start of the race, NYRA said he was running for purse only. The exact thing happened the next day at Santa Anita to one of the horses in the turf stakes that Indy Point won ( I hate the ridiculous name changes of their Grade 1 races and therefore have blocked it from my mind), but SA decided to wait and have the shoe fixed.
HRTV commentators were not pleased about the two different ways of handling the issue.
Turnbackthealarm

***

Any word on Al Stall's- now 3 year old fillie -Sign- who looked promising after just 2 starts -SAR madien and the Pocahontas at CD- been sidelined since...never heard if they retired her??
scott

SIGN injured a hind ankle over the winter and had surgery to insert a stabilizing screw.  The hope was that she would return to training in the summer, but she has yet to register an official workout.


***

The weekend handicapping videos should be up on the homepage later this week.

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman

***

Congrats to Okiesharp for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling contest.

Rick M's HandiGambling scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Okiesharp selects Friday's 8th race at Keeneland for this week's event.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.

AttachmentSize
RONTHEGREEK.pdf67.31 KB
HGPHOENIX.pdf189.59 KB
Copy of Formblog Remington 9-27-13.xls68 KB
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
In a previous post I mentioned learning from each other. I offer a thought for anyone intending to do thorough research into Euro form lines as part of their Breeders Cup handicapping. The official British and Irish Handicappers (the people who assign the weights carried by every horse) have concluded that the weight for age allowance they apply needs to be revised. They now believe that from August onwards (the allowance varies throughout the year), 3 year olds get too much allowance from their elders. Accordingly, in any assessment of an all age race, the performance of a 3 year old probably needs to be scaled back a bit. Conversely, the performance of the older horses needs to be upgraded. Of course, for normal people with better things to do, people who take a more relaxed view of things, this thought is definitely non essential. Best Regards - Bernard Downes
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
CM, Oh no!!!! I haven't seen the new DRF as I order online, but that is the reason I hate Bris PPs. Too much abbreviation of the horses' names in the running lines. That's terrible. They better not change the online PPs or I will be really, really mad. I usually buy the paper version of the BC PPs, but if they will be like that, I'll order online and print. Annie
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Didn't find Hitler, but did find Virgin Queen's response to Chicago Gerry's request that she attend the first Formblog Convention. chicago gerry thx 4 the invite,but,many r called..few r chosen. not married,live with parents.don't work,don't drive,don't own a tv,don't smoke, don't do drugs.like 2 jog,like pepsi,chewing gum and junk food. like tattoos,don't like body piercing.like paris hilton, don't like lady gaga,like when parents go away 4 weekend,don't like when told 2 get a job.like going 2 the river late at nite,don't like trying 2 the grass stains out next day.like partying,don't like how i feel next morning.love the peoples republic of cambridge,love harvard sq,love hanging out in the harvard yards.finally, like poker,booze,thourghbreds,sex, and rock&roll though not necessarly in that order. peace VQ Posted by: Virgin Queen on July 25, 2010 at 01:51 AM
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Bernard, Thanks for Vorda. Your note about Dank on Firm, Duntle on Soft, saved me money on a bet I structured which was ultimately a winning bet. C, Ar'e some of the funniest really old? For new ones, I will nominate Mathieu's interpretation of Guillot's writing ability and DavidM999's description of his Zippy Chippy like quest to win Handigambling. But the all time Hall of Fame, number one winner of funniest Formblog moment was Alan's "Hitler Does Handigamling". I'm going to try and find it in my files. Hopefully Alan will see this and post it again.
mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
David, Technically yes....but the run up is the distance the horses travel before tripping the timer......apples and oranges when deciding the outcome of future races, shorter run ups will usually on average have slightly slower first quarter splits.....but it depends on the entrants......I can honestly say that in all my years I won one race where I used the difference in runups for a distance as something to hang my hat on. Now rail placings at a track like Gulfstream is another story.......Mike A
mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
"C" This was written by Eddie Donnelly a former jockey and admitted "cheater".....He explains some of the points I tried to make to you. Plus watch the slo motion video of Saez's hands on the gallop out, you can find a you tube video on the Paulick report.....his hands are fully open at one time or another.....The video was analyzed by the NY state Police crime lab and the FBI crime lab.....If you still want to stick to the "I just want to know what he's tucking under the saddle" I can't help you. Eddie Donnelly......... Not true. Saez did not use a machine on Will Take Charge. This is another Q-Ring Jose Santos Preakness debacle. I rode for 19 years and admit in my book, "Ride the White Horse: A Checkered Jockey's Story of Racing, Rage and Redemption," to using a machine on at least 50 horses. It is not something I am proud of and apologize to racing fans and bettors. However, I know a lot about machines and while writing for the Dallas Morning New wrote an article, "Electric Jockeys and their Juice Machines," than ran in many national papers. I know what I am talking about. Saez switched his whip from his right to his left hand at the top of the stretch and is seen hitting Will Take Charge with his lelt hand in early stretch. It is IMPOSSIBLE to carry a whip and a machine in the same hand. It it also impossible to switch a stick to a hand carrying a machine. It simply cannot be done. No machine rider I knew and I knew quite a few, as well as myself, ever switched sticks while carrying a machine. I did see a machine once built into the base of a whip. The rider carried two tiny pins in his mouth in the post parade and then inserted them into the stick to conduct the shock. But the pins were not that secure and to switch sticks with that kind of whip would be to risk losing the needed pins. Beside, shocking a horse on the left side is no different than shocking a horse on his right side and nothing is to be gained. Thus I can say with a high degree of certainty that Saez did not use a machine. There are other reasons I believe this that I will not discuss here. . When you entertain bs like the "buzzer" incident...when so much proof goes the other way all you are doing is enabling losers to keep doing so, telling folks who wish to see horse racing disappear a smoking gun to point to and you keep people from looking back to actually seeing why the race turned out as it did....as my compadre's did when they sent it in on Moreno in the PA Derby expecting him to win by daylight when the simple truth was he couldn't if he wanted to....I hadn't planned on entertaining this subject again, but when a smart guy like VS writes back that now he isn't so sure I just had to......Let it go and move on.....lets talk about handicapping....that's the ticket......Mike A
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Mike A, Having promised to write no more on the subject, I am loath to break that promise, but my over inflated ego demands I set the record straight. You suggest, in the nicest possible way, that I have missed the point re INTELLO. But the truth is you are being selective in stating your own position. Yes you did talk about offering us 3 choices in assessing INTELLO, but EARLIER in your post, you had clearly made up your own mind. You said, "...and the simple truth is INTELLO's a nice colt and may be a very good 4 year old, but he isn't over the top good". You are perfectly entitled to hold that opinion, but it is not compatible with offering the 3 choices. Although it may seem like it, I am not trying to score points. Its not my game. Rather, I think that if we are to learn from one another, it is helpful if all views posted on here are crystal clear, and all should be accorded equal merit and equal respect. Now I will shut up. Best Regards - Bernard Downes
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Long time no post. Bought the new form today. It will take some getting used to. My biggest gripe is that you can't read the top three in the running lines - too much abbreviation. Any other thoughts? CM
VanSavant More than 1 year ago
RonZ; Here is the best breakdown of the “Travers incident” http://www.gaming.ny.gov/travers_investigation.php This appears to pretty much show everything. From videos I have never seen before to close up photos taken in sequence. This puts this incident to rest for me, although the video from the link that C provided does look bad.
DavidM9999 More than 1 year ago
Run Up distances at SA In reviewing the run up distances for SA I see that 6F races have a 85 feet (28 yards) run up. Mile races have run up listed at 172 feet (57 yards). So am I interpreting this data right? Mile races actually are a mile and 57 yards. Six furlong races are 6.12 furlongs.