10/03/2008 1:55PM

Triple Tipple

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2:54 pm: Not the greatest of starts, as I began the triple-carryover at Belmont with a B when Phi Beta Mom revealed previously unseen rating ability, avoided a duel, and won laughing coming from the garden spot behind a fast pace in leg 1. So all my C tickets are dead and I can go to the B well just once more:

That's $1720 for 22 tickets, 16 of them dead after one leg. The live ones:

5,6/6/1/4,6/1,10
1,3/6/1/4,6/1,10
5,6/1,7/1/4,6/1,10
5,6/6/6,11/4,6/1,10
5,6/6/1/3,7,8/1,10
5,6/6/1/4,6/2,5,8


My goofiest horse of the day runs in leg 3, the 6th. A quick look at the pp's -- or pp -- of Sinister Pass does not have much to recommend it: A single start on the turf at Monmouth, where he was beaten 23 lengths at odds of 136-1. But his trainer's name rang a bell and I looked him up on Formulator and realized why: Sinister Pass is a full brother to Sinister Deance, who was a big putover winner second time under somewhat similar circumstances. Look at her first two career starts:

Download SinisterPass.pdf

Download SinisterDeance.pdf

So here's the fanciful theory: They run Sinister Pass in an impossible spot at Monmouth, going long in open company, where he gets a nice six-furlong grass workout, then comes over here (with the same Monmouth jockey) to score out dropping in class and distance in a New York-bred maiden race.

Of course Sinister Pass may simply have no ability. Even if he does, and it's all systems go today, they drew into a race featuring the return of Leap Day, who looked like a well-above-average statebred in his four starts last year. If he's ready to pick up where he left off, he'll cruise at odds-on. I singled Leap Day on a lot of tickets but used 3-1 No Lien Here and 30-1 Sinister Pass in equal strength as B's. And I can always make a little win bet on Sinister Pass if y'all don't knock down the price too much in the next 45 minutes.


3:15 pm: Ick. Another B as Gold Trippi looped the field from last to win at $8.00. So I'm down to being alive by a single, pathetic, chalky thread: 6/1/4,6/1,10.

Sinister Pass is the longest race 5-6 double will-pay at $391 from Gold Trippi ($8.00) but a mere 14-1 at the moment.

So why didn't I either single Bribon and his gaudy 118 Beyer or make my second choice Gold Trippi instead of Silver Stetston Man? I was concerned about Bribon's 100-day layoff and about a potential lack of pace. Right on count 1, dead wrong on count 2, as all the jocks except Catellano apparently shared my concern. The hopeless Japengo gunned, Vicarino gunned after him, and Silverstetsonman and Bribon made it four-across by the turn. Gold Trippi flew by them all, and $8 must have seemed a gift to those who were skeptical of the favorite.

All those tickets to be 1x1x2x2. Bah humbug.


3:45 pm: Sinister Pass is no Sinister Deance. Trailed at every call at 39-1 while Leap Day could only manage second to Multidude. Not my day. But tomorrow's card looks like a good one....


5:00 pm: The will-pays:

1: $5,896
2: $5,760
3: $11,857
4: $17,708
5: $23,273
6: $83,995
7: $156,632
8: $14,470
9: scratch
10: $3,927

Somehow I don't think my conso with the 1 or 10 is quite going to get me out for the day.

John_L More than 1 year ago
Got beat on the wire in the 9th. I thought we were home..I was not too upset as thirty nine hundred was hardly worth all the time invested. If it was 39k I would be despondent. Gold Trippi was the lock of the week. He lost to Merchant Marie and Wanderin Boy. Wager on him more than paid for my P6 tix. Onward and upward.
callmetony More than 1 year ago
Steve Any word on johnny v? Man that didn't look good. Hope all is allright with him
bochalls More than 1 year ago
Wow...said I would try this P6 thing before Saratoga but had nothing to shout about.... until now. No, not 6 out of 6, but 5 of 6. Only paid $97.50 but I had it four times (who didn't right?). The key for me was Perfect Casting in R8, as I thought he couldn't lose. The real point I am making is that I have now dipped my toes in P6 waters...can my whole arse and teets be far behind? HELP!!!
Saratoga_Mike More than 1 year ago
Gofor broke, Isn't it possible that Bribon ran the race of his life on June 25? He missed three months after that effort. Isn't it possible he wasn't 100% today? Finally, the 118 Beyer was at a mile, not today's distance of 6 furlongs. As Andy Beyer often points out, horses aren't machines!
gofor broke More than 1 year ago
I think the Beyer boys should revisit Bribon's 118. lol! Not quite in line with that horse's ability. And the horse who was 2nd in that 118 ran today. They could give that race a 100 and be closer to reality.
aldo_cella More than 1 year ago
Perhaps there are a few Pick 6 bettors a mite miffed with JJ this evening?
AJV More than 1 year ago
Steve, you weren't wrong about the consos not getting us out- $97 for 5 of 6?! Yikes! That's a tough beat twice!
AJV More than 1 year ago
Steve, I'm alive to the 2 and the 10 on a $288 mini caveman play... Just realized that both horses have the word "bar" in their name. Cheers! AJV
GregB More than 1 year ago
Steven, Do you track the profitability of your A/B/C combinations? How do your hit rates and ROI compare for AAAAAA vs AAAAAB vs AAAABB vs AAAAAC? You spent $304 of your $1720 to include the C's. Is that profitable? I tried your ABC ticketing scheme on pick-4's this summer and too often end up seeing AABC or AACC or ABBC win. I realize this means I need to do a better job of assigned letter grades, but I'm wondering if the C's are really worth the investment. Might the money be better spent on an extra B or two? Regards, GregB
Saratoga_Mike More than 1 year ago
Steve, Sorry to see you're out, but it makes me feel a little less stupid. Using your A, B, C system, I bet in $2,512 and I'm out after leg 3, too. Can we have three 25-1 shots close out the day for a quadruple carryover?