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Trinniberg and the Derby Pace
There has already been a lot of talk that the addition of Trinniberg to the Kentucky Derby field has pretty much ruined the chances of Bodemeister and Hansen. I think that’s a serious overreaction.
Right here, I have to admit that I think that the Derby is about the worst spot anyone could think of for Trinniberg. Trinniberg has made seven starts in his career, and not one has been in a race a step beyond seven furlongs. His history fits his profile, which is that of a stone-cold sprinter. Everything about Trinniberg shouts that the only way he can get the Derby’s 10 furlongs is with the assistance of a ride in a Sallee horse van.
But this is America, and thanks primarily to his victories this year in the Grade 3 Swale and Grade 3 Bay Shore – both after establishing easy early leads – Trinniberg has enough graded earnings to crack the Derby field – does anyone still think graded earnings in sprints should count as much as graded earnings in routes? – and crack the Derby field he will.
Trinniberg does have high early speed. He has been on the lead at the first call in six of his seven career starts, and the one time he wasn’t, it appeared he intentionally conceded the early lead. I’m not even considering the possibility that Trinniberg won’t be on the lead in the Derby (no matter what his connections suggest), because after all, he has sub-21 second quarter mile speed and sub-44 half mile speed at his reserves. He demonstrated that last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint at Churchill Downs, a race in which he finished a badly beaten seventh, and a race, notably, won by the colt Trinniberg battled early with, Secret Circle.
Trinniberg’s speed is why there is now an even greater focus on the Derby pace. But just because Trinniberg can reel off a 45 half like breaking sticks, it doesn’t mean he will in the Derby, or that the pace he does set will be ruinous, or destructive. For one, I’m sure Trinniberg’s jockey will want to take it as slow early as he can in the Derby, if for no other reason than to conserve as much of his mount’s energy as possible.
But a huge determinant in the character of the Derby pace will be in how the riders of Bodemeister and Hansen react. I think it needs to be emphasized that while both Bodemeister and Hansen are also blessed with excellent early speed, they both have also proven that they can be effective when they don’t have the early lead. Hansen rated off the lead beautifully in the Gotham Stakes before scoring in dominating fashion. Bodemeister did not have the early lead in the San Felipe, the race that was Bodemeister’s first start after his maiden victory, and which was the fastest Derby prep this year until Bodemeister’s Arkansas Derby, and yet performed valiantly to bow to the heavily stakes-seasoned Creative Cause by less than length.
Bodemeister and Hansen are elite candidates for the Kentucky Derby, yet they could lose in Louisville for any number of reasons other than pace. But as top contenders, they should be ridden with the confidence that befits them. Just let Trinniberg go out and do his thing on the lead. If he wants to open up a quick eight lengths, let him. Don’t worry about it. But Bodemeister and Hansen might well find that they won’t be that far behind at all, because the jock on Trinniberg will want to slow it down, too. In other words, Bodemeister and Hansen should just focus on themselves, and pretend that Trinniberg isn’t even in the race.
I like that Trinniberg is going to the Derby. Its one less horse that can ruin my Superfecta.
The experience last year of Comma to the Top may be instructive and illustrative. He got his big wad of graded cash as a 2 yo in the Cash Call (Hollywood) Futurity. His connections at first had a level head, saying that he was a sprinter and did not belong in the Derby field. Then when he almost won the Santa Anita Derby, Derby fever kicked in, and off the poor horse went to Churchill. He led most of the way, finish stone cold last, and had a injury to top it all off that took him out of contention for over 6 months. The difference between CTTT and Trinniberg is that Comma actually won races at over a mile.
john, a proffesional player will toss Bodemeister and Hanson. Niether one will be able to sit enough and rate . History has proven in years with top sprinters (see Snow Chief and Point Given) in the race, the pressors are at a very big dissadvantage. Bode will regress of huge lifetime top race, they will blame it on pace and he may win the PreaknePreakness. Hanson didn't want to rate in the Gotham, he was forced to after a slow break. He will be on the muscle. Both of those horses are very good and big plusses for them include incredible early speed. Take that away from them and they are just ordinary. Play the deep closers for best results.
this race can be won on or near the lead..not every derby is won from the race falling apart with a deep closer running by them all...seattle slew , spectacualr bid, spend a buck , swale , go for gin, war emblem , winning colors , funny cide ,smarty jones, barbaro and big brown were all forwardly placed.. i think hansen had the perfect prep on synthetic and has already proved in the gothem he'll rate off the lead...i think he's going to run huge and will be the horse to get buy in deep stretch..that said , he could melt down in post pararde, if he does , i like alpha and daddy nose best to be right there..
For a story about a horse with 'no shot' this one just keeps hanging in there don't it Mike? I'm glad you did not s-can it and bet you are too. I gotta tell you I'm a sucker for underdogs and am always happy when the good guys win one. Did I say Win? Well, I'm reaching there but for folks like Cookie who notice things, there is a difference in this Colt and I believe the rider change makes for alot of it. These two are one. Will that alone be enough? Ego, arrogance, exposure, pride, just to ruin it for others... I've seen all these things put out there about Trinni's peeps. There's one word that I have not heard, Faith. Later if I may share it, I got a story from the Press Box at Old Garden State.
Dullahan blew by Hansen in the Blue Grass like he was standing still and is a stone cold closer peaking at the right time! Hes one of few in the Derby field that can get the distance. Why cant people see this???? Dullahan will win the Derby!!
Winning a mile and quarter race contested on the lead or very near the lead against quality opponents of a similar grade, takes a special horse...will only happen once every blue moon...( I know..it does happen) but it should not affect one's handicapping or betting strategy. Hansen is not winning this, Trinny is not winning this, and Bode is intriguing, as he may be peaking at the right time. If he can adjust his style he can be a winner...I cannot omit him from my exotic tickets. Union Rags is a good horse. Dullahan? Use him only on the bottom of my tickets..not a winner. As with every year, a horse from the dark side could arise and get it done.
Using beyers to handicap races is inconsistent. I have been handicapping horse races since I was 7 I'm 23 now and I still don't understand how they give these horses the beyers they receive. I understand why Bodemeister got a triple digit beyer for his Ark win but why doesn't the Santa Anita Derby get a triple digit beyer when the race was run a full second faster with better horses. Union Rags tracks a slow pace in FOY a runs one of the fastest 1 1/16 races of three year old preps and wins by 4 in hand and doesn't hit triple digits. I just don't get it and this is only a couple discrepancies with the beyers I can go on forever. That's why I can never use beyers as a consistent means of handicapping a horse race
one thing is certain and that is that the so called professional handicappers change favoritism in the derby by what bob baffert sends to the post. bodemeister will finish up the track as well as all the speed horses and all the horses that sit just off the speed. if one logical person looks at the derby races they can easily see that front and on the pace speed does not win the derby. it will take horses that close from the back of mid pack to win and that lets all the favorites out. i still think the race is between alpha and daddy nose best.
bode is a contender but one thing you gotta realize guys is that he is a west coast based horse which not many continue their form on an east coast track unless he is a freak of nature... its been years since a top west coast horse won the derby!!!! oaklawn n churchill are totataly 2 different tracks
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