01/08/2014 3:46PM



A few hours after Mucho Macho Man crossed the finish line in the Breeders' Cup Classic, I stood in a hotel elevator with a racing fan from Germany, a pair of Irish racing reporters and a Japanese photographer. 

The Irishmen, giddy about the performance of the European runners, gushed with praise for Magician, who had rallied stoutly under Ryan Moore to deny The Fugue a trip to the Breeders' Cup Turf winner's circle.

"Magician was good," said the German fan.  "But, you know, Treve would have beaten him by ten lengths."

Taken aback, the Irish writers composed themselves and began to laugh. "That's asinine," one remarked.  "Didn't you see how sensational Magician was this afternoon?"

"Didn't you see how sensational Treve was in the Arc?" The German fan retorted. 

Exasperated, the Irish reporters looked around the elevator for help.  The Japanese photographer stared at his shoes.  I focused on the elevator numbers, moving ever - so - slowly.

"You," one of the reporters pointed at me.  "What do you think?"


My floor.

On the way out, I stopped, turned and answered.  "Ten lengths is certainly ridiculous."  The reporters nodded at each other, convinced that their position was validated. 

"Five seems more likely."  Addressing the photographer, I concluded with "Oh, and Orfevre would have won by two-and-a-half."

Once upon a dream, these discussions were restricted to once-smokey racetracks and simulcast parlors, once-smokey bars, and glacial elevators. 

Thanks to the internet, they rage constantly, usually peaking at this time of year with the announcement of the Eclipse Award finalists.

I voted WISE DAN as the 2013 Eclipse Award winner for Horse of the Year. 

But he wasn't the best thoroughbred I saw over the past 12 months. 

Undefeated from four starts at distances ranging from 1 Mile to 12 furlongs over both firm and soft turf, TREVE, a 3-year-old filly, dominated her competition at every turn. 

In her seasonal debut, the Prix Perruche Bleue at Saint-Cloud on May 15, she broke slowly before settling into third place as the field maneuvered single file through the opening quarter mile.  With 2 1/2 furlongs remaining, Thierry Jarnet eased Treve outside and the duo overwhelmed the leaders to win in a gallop.

The following month, at Chantilly, Treve was dismissed at 8-1 for her first start against stakes horses in the Group 1 Prix de Diane at 1 5/16ths.  Jarnet kept the daughter of Motivator along the inner rail at the back of the field for the first nine furlongs.  At the 400m mark, Treve exploded to the lead from between horses and the outcome was never in doubt.  Treve's official winning margin was four lengths and she received a 120 Racing Post Rating. 


Treve was purchased privately prior to her next race, the Group 1 Prix Vermeille against older fillies and mares over 12 furlongs at Longchamp on September 15.  Ridden this time by Frankie Dettori, Treve saved ground behind a slow pace and was blocked with a little more than two furlongs remaining.  At this juncture, Dettori found a gap and Treve burst through.  She attacked the pacesetter with a furlong left and drove by to win by almost two lengths. 


Then, the Arc. 

Facing mostly older males, Treve broke from post 15 in the 17-horse Arc, and Jarnet (subbing for an injured Dettori) had difficulty finding cover for his filly.  They were hung outside and Treve seemed anxious to go.  Gradually, they crept up to the leading group and Treve took over under a hand ride with 2 1/2 furlongs remaining.  Jarnet pushed the button with 400m to race, the acceleration was instantaneous and the race was over.  Treve's five-length win was good enough for a whopping 131 Racing Post Rating. 


As for the mercurial ORFEVRE, he was no match for Treve in the Arc.  It was the second consecutive year he finished second in Europe's biggest race and he was beaten a dirty nose by Gentildonna in the 2012 Japan Cup.  He concluded his racing career in style, however, taking the Group 1 Arima Kinen by eight widening lengths at Nakayama on December 22.  The Japanese Triple Crown winner of 2011, Orfevre won the Group 1 Takarazuka Kinen at four, the same season he was pipped in both the Arc and Japan Cup.  In 2013, he won three of four races, including the Group 2 Prix Foy at Longchamp on September 15. 

The Arima Kinen is a fascinating race in which ten of the runners are selected by fan vote.  The remaining entrants are decided by career earnings. Orfevre won the fan vote in 2012, but didn't participate in the Arima Kinen after a grueling campaign.  This year, he received 81,198 votes and became the first vote-winner to score in the race since Deep Impact (119,940 votes) in 2006. 


About half of the 120,000 fans in attendance stayed around after the races for Orfevre's official retirement ceremony as a way to show their respect and admiration for the champion.  He certainly had a stellar career. 

But he was no Treve.

Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (12/16/13 - 12/22/13):

1. STRAPPING GROOM - 110 - Gravesend Handicap - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
2. PRAYER FOR RELIEF - 106 - Tenacious Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
3. MEAN SEASON - 105 - OC 25k/N1X -N - Aqueduct - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
4. RIVER SEVEN - 104 - Harlan's Holiday Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Gulfstream
5. CYBER SECRET - 103 - Prairie Bayou Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Turfway
5. DADDY NOSE BEST - 103 - Buddy Diliberto Memorial Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
7. TEXAS AIR - 101 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Retama
8. SUM OF THE PARTS - 100 - Bonapaw Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Fair Grounds
9. UNKNOWN ROAD - 98 - Md Sp Wt 40k - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
10. FEARSOME - 96 - Holiday Handicap - 4 1/2 Furlongs - Charles Town
11. FREDERICKSBURG - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
11. SAMRAAT - 95 - Damon Runyon Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
13. CATRON - 94 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
13. CLAWBACK - 94 - OC50k/SAL50k - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
13. RULER OF LOVE - 94 - OC 32k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 40 Yards - Tampa Bay
16. EXTRASEXYHIPPZSTER - 93 - Don Rickles Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
16. WILD LOUIS - 93 - OC 25k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Laurel
18. DIVINE BEAUTY - 92 - Letellier Memorial Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
19. AZ RIDGE - 91 - Hank Mills Sr. Handicap - 1 Mile - Turf Paradise
19. MIDDLEBURG - 91 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
19. SILVER FREAK - 91 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
19. SNEAKING UPONYOU - 91 - Clm 25000 - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Tampa Bay
23. CLASS INCLUDED - 90 - Blushing K. D. Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
23. MR SPEAKER - 90 - Dania Beach Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
25. CALIFORNIA CHROME - 89 - King Glorious Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
25. GIANT CATS EYE - 89 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
25. HIT THE ROAD LEE - 89 - OC 30k/C - 7 1/2 Furlongs - Delta
25. LAVALLEE TWIST - 89 - OC 32k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Tampa Bay
25. SMACK RIDGE - 89 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Sunland
25. SMALL TOKEN - 89 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Calder
25. SONJA'S ANGEL - 89 - OC15k/SAL10k - 1 Mile - Gulfstream

*The lifetime past performances for STRAPPING GROOM are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (12/23/13 - 12/29/13):

1. SHAKIN IT UP - 106 - Malibu Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
2. BIG LOOIE - 101 - OC 25k/N$Y - 1 1/16 Miles - Hawthorne
3. FIVE PALMS - 99 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3. SAN ONOFRE - 99 - Alw 58000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3. SINGANOTHERSONG - 99 - Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
6. MAIL - 97 - Traskwood Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
6. MR. ONLINE - 97 - El Prado Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
6. UNBRIDLED'S NOTE - 97 - Daytona Stakes (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
9. COMANDANTE - 94 - Alex M. Robb Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
9. SHRINKING VIOLET - 94 - Alw 53250NC - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
9. TRIUMPH AND SONG - 94 - OC c-40k/N2X - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
12. DON TITO - 93 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
12. HEIR KITTY - 93 - La Brea Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
12. SEWANEE - 93 - Alw 8000s - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Parx
12. UNCLE SIGH - 93 - Md Sp Wt 65k - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
12. WARM BREEZE - 93 - Alw 41000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
17. CUSTOMER BASE - 92 - Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
17. DEVIL'S CAVE - 92 - Ocala Stakes - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
17. FARHAAN - 92 - Lord of the Night Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
17. GERVINHO - 92 - Sir Beaufort Stakes (G2) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
17. MODERN CHILD - 92 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
17. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE - 92 - W. L. McKnight Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles - Calder
23. NOTMYFIRSTIME - 91 - Clm 30000(30-25)B - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
23. SHE'S ORDAINED - 91 - Willa On the Move Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
25. CAGE FIGHTER - 90 - Clm 50000(50-45)N2L - 1 1/16 Miles - Gulfstream
25. CHERUBIM - 90 - Md Sp Wt 56k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
25. KARIBU GARDENS - 90 - Alw 41000N1X - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
25. MOMENTS NOTIZ - 90 - OC 100k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
25. THE BEST GLACIER - 90 - Fremont Stakes - 1 Mile - Delta

*The lifetime past performances for SHAKIN IT UP are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*TRIUMPH AND SONG was claimed for $40,000 by trainer Karl Broberg from Bret Calhoun.


Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (12/30/13 - 1/5/13):

1. FURY KAPCORI - 104 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
2. CEASE - 101 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
2. SMASH AND GRAB - 101 - OC 32k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
4. ADIRONDACK KING - 99 - Alw 57200N$Y - 7 Furlongs - Parx
4. APPEALING TALE - 99 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
6. REGALLY READY - 98 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
6. WILD DUDE - 98 - Alw 57360N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
6. WRITINGONTHEWALL - 98 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
9. JERANIMO - 96 - San Gabriel Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
9. JUST CALL KENNY - 96 - Spectacular Bid Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
9. MOMENTS NOTIZ - 96 - OC12k/SAL12k - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
9. SCHERZINGER - 96 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
13. CYCLOMETER - 95 - Midnight Lute Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
13. PHAT DAY - 95 - OC 30k/ -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
13. PONTCHATRAIN - 95 - Monrovia Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
13. ROMAN UNBRIDLED - 95 - Big Drama Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Delta
13. SEEKING MS SHELLEY - 95 - Pan Zareta Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Fair Grounds
13. TEEN PAULINE - 95 - Affectionately Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
19. AFFLICTION - 94 - Clm 8000 - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
19. BOLD THUNDER - 94 - OC 62k/N2X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
19. CARRIED INTEREST - 94 - Alw 58900N1X - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
22. PEACE AND JUSTICE - 93 -  Alw 61588N1X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
23. GENERAL A ROD - 92 - Gulfstream Park Derby - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
23. SNEAKING UPONYOU - 92 - OC 32k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Tampa Bay
25. BOLD CURLIN - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - Laurel
25. COMMISSIONER - 91 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
25. GERMANIAC - 91 - Frank Whiteley Jr. Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Laurel
25. GRANDE SHORES - 91 - OC10k/SAL8k - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
25. HAZARDS OF LOVE - 91 - OC17k/SAL17k - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
25. NAPLES BAY - 91 - Marshua's River Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
25. SOUPER KNIGHT - 91 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - Laurel

*The lifetime past performances for FURY KAPCORI are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Some Saturday questions.
SA race 3, #6 Storm Comin Thru, raced at Rup for a zero mdn purse. That's a track I haven't visited. Couldn't find Rup on the DRF lists. Any idea where it is?
SA race 4, Flagman was ridden by Patrick Valenzuela and trained by Thomas N Valenzuela. I couldn't find any personal info on Thomas N and was wondering if you knew if they were related.

RUP is the track code for the Minidoka County Fair in Rupert, Idaho. 


I don't believe Patrick and Thomas Valenzuela are related.


Hi Dan,
It was wonderful seeing the final act of a world superstar named Orfevre! his final win by 8 lenghts in the Arima Kinen was superb, Could you please post his lifetime pps and his full brother Dream Journey!
Thanks a lot! and Merry Christmas!
Zezinho 1969

They're available at the bottom of this blog post.  Please note that Dream Journey's past performances are incomplete.  The missing lines are his 14th-place finish in the 2008 Yomiuri Milers Cup (G2, 4/19/08), an 8th-place finish in the American Jockey Club Cup (G2, 1/25/09), a runner-up effort in the Nakayama Kinen (G2, 3/1/09) and a victory in the Sankei Osaka Hai (G2, 4/5/09)


Dan -
Shared Belief was bred by noted California owners and breeders Martin and Pam Wygod.
Did he run his first race at Golden Gate in their name? Why and when was he gelded?
Someone early on must have thought he had limited prospects.
- Dan Baedeker

SHARED BELIEF was gelded prior to his career debut and raced for the Wygods at Golden Gate before being privately purchased.  I'm not sure why he was gelded.  Perhaps he had some behavioral issues?


...kinda' off topic, but Dan if you know more ?
My favorite racehorse ZENYATTA , it's her 1/2 sis Eblouissante (3-2-0-0) who after a 4 month layoff was sold to Ian Banwell’s St. George Farm Racing for $2.1 million at the Keeneland November breeding stock sale, and is steadily working back at HP.
12/17/2013 BHP 5F 1:00.00 All Weather Track Fast H
12/09/2013 BHP 5F 1:00.40 All Weather Track Fast H
12/01/2013 BHP 5F 1:00.60 All Weather Track Fast H
11/22/2013 BHP 3F :39.60 All Weather Track Fast B
Back with John Sherriffs, I hope to see her back soon, likely at Santa Anita ?
Welcome back E.
SR Vegas

She had a major mishap in the gate prior to her most recent start, the Grade 3 Shuvee Handicap at Saratoga on July 20.  She was unruly and actually broke a few teeth when she banged her head.  She came out of the sixth-place finish with some body soreness and was given plenty of time to get right.  After the sale, she was sent back to Southern California and I would expect to see her at Santa Anita fairly soon.  She worked a half-mile in 47.80 last Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park.


Seriously Dan?! Are you still using the words gelding and Kentucky Derby in the same sentence? Obviously you've learned nothing from this blog.. Lol.. Shared Belief..jeezle!

Since 2003, two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby (Funny Cide, Mine That Bird).  I don't see why it's a big deal.


My friend has a half sister to Pletcher's recently trurned three year stakes placed Danza. He is hoping for a strong year from Danza. I see only one workout for this one on 12/24 in 39.95. Do you know anything about the stauts or plans for this one?

DANZA breezed a half-mile in 50.70 at Palm Meadows on Tuesday morning.  I haven't heard anything about an injury that knocked him out of training.  I'd expect to see him at Gulfstream in about a month or so. 



It looks as if we'll have our annual FormBlog Convention at Gulfstream Park early next year.  For more details, head on over to Laura's excellent website


It's always a blast so come on out if you can.


The weekend handicapping previews should be available on the site soon.

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman


This week's HandiGambling exercise will be Friday's 9th race from Tampa Bay.


SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!




Best of luck to all.

SHAKIN IT UP.pdf613.55 KB
ORFEVRE.pdf569.94 KB
HGTAMTURF.pdf183.64 KB
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
MKB workouts 1/14/14 Palm Meadows dirt/fast Bobby's Kitten - 3F 0:38.45 Breezing - Starr D Grand Arrival - 4F 0:50.50 Breezing - JayVanHorn 1/15/24 Fair Grounds dirt/fast Poker Player - 5F 0 :50.00 Breezing - Dennis of Moline ----------------------- MKB Entries: Saturday 1/18 /14 Gulfstream Park race # 5 1 1/8M 47K MSW Awesome Sky - Sonny Crockett Fair Grounds race #9 200K Lecomte Stakes 1M 70 yds Gold Hawk - Anderson (Derby points available 10-4-2-1) Golden Gate Race # 7 100K California Derby 1/16M all weather Enterprising - Yuwipi Good Luck ! SR Vegas
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
VS, Your post reminds me vividly of the winter and spring of 2010. I will keep the good thoughts flowing for your daughter to crack the Top FOUR of each of her events. Have fun and savor the weekend, but you know that I know that you have already planned on doing that. :) On a similar note, it was five years ago today that I was sitting in the Newark airport watching the "miracle on the Hudson" rescue take place. I was sitting in the exit row on my flight which boarded shortly after the last people were plucked from the wings of the downed plane. I will never forget the flight attendant asking us with a very serious face whether we were willing and able to open the door in the case of emergency. Watching the anniversary coverage of this event this morning really brought it back as to what a miracle it really was that Captain Sullenberg was able to bring that plane down to earth with no loss of life.
mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
Pat, So how good is the field Thursday? Obviously a tad better than AL faced at Laurel, not tons better, but a tad. I'm not much of a fan of the pick at the distance, that would be Middleburg. Of the two short MLs I like Hotersal more. I'm sure you'll get an improved race from Tattenham...he's a Rock Hard Ten, they love Gulfstream park and if you'll notice, arguably his best race was at 1 1/4m at Belmont. RHT's improve with age.....I expect a good run from him. State Flag took his sweet time to come around....but his last few races have been good and his last, while on poly was against a real nice group. I suspect he'll run well also. Global Express should be the ML choice, I'm not understanding why he's 5-1 and perhaps the public will change that...He's proven at the distance and horse for horse he's run with slightly better. Ocean Seven's odds are way out of whack....10-1 possibly...20-1? no way......this field isn't that much more superior to horses he's run well against and beaten (Class President)......So where do I see this race? These are solid OC claiming types.....for the most part. But they aren't over the top good. Odds matter and since I'm seeing the race different that the oddsmaker I'd nave to wait and see what the public does. It was the same way with Changethechannel...at 6-1 a no bet, but at 12-1? Now for Autobahn Legend.....I see These three as the ones to beat, in no particular order...Global Express, State Flag,Tattenhamand Ocean Seven....Does AL have to improve to win? yes and no.....at up to 1 1/16th yes, after that not so much. Going by what I've seen of him at 1 1/8th and shorter I'd say he fits in here. He's lightly raced like Global Express.....in fact the more I look at it the more I'd say Global Express is the one to beat...even if Attfileds record at Gulf isn't to good. The fact that he kept this one in training says he is trying in here. Would I bet AL in this race? Depends on odds.....I see one key horse in GE with 3 others that should run well.....and you get odds for two of them In State Flag, 8-1 and Oceans Seven at 20-1.....with OS being the most attractive at the price......but what will the public do?.....So you'll have to wait and see.....this way you see them on track, you'll be able to see any difference in AL's appearance.....Bottom line...these aren't so much better than what he ran against at laurel that his performance there when stacked against his previous races makes him a toss......Distance should help by how he runs, but he is stepping up abit.....odds matter....I wouldn't take less than 15-1.......and even then Global Express would probably be my key horse.....at 5-1.....Lets wait and see how they look tomorrow.........Mike A
mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
Pat, As far as Autobahn legends works? It's how he works and always has.....as far as works go I pay more attention to a trainers/horses pattern......Now as to the race itself...... First and foremost one has to decide just how good this field is overall....then compare each horses prior races "class wise" to this one. Just looking at conditions isn't good enough.....not all 25 claimers are alike as an example. The horses AL ran against were older solid turfers....I'd say in the 25 to 30 straight claiming level. For a lightly raced horse with physical issues at 3 it would have been a tall order for him to win. If he had he certainly wouldn't be entered here. But he didn't, now you mentioned he looked fat and out of shape. Fat I doubt, out of shape I'll buy.....or I should say "not wound tight". His race wasn't as bad as it looks on paper, as his first run wasn't and that one looked much worse. In the race at Laurel he ran on a track with alot of give to it, not what he likes. That first race at Gulf was run over a similar course, not as bad but not firm as they said it was. AL broke very sharp at laurel, actually second halfway down the frontside and still between and close up heading into the bend. Then he loses ground around the turn gets his position maintains it, loses ground around the 2nd turn but makes up 4 down the stretch once straightened away....he did manage to come home in 24:1. So how do I look at the race? Well....they were solid claimers, older ones....he was never hustled or pushed, jock didn't beat up on him, just took a stroll. A mile is a bit short for him....at least fast time wise and the course wasn't what he likes. I never got the impression the jock was riding to win the race, he was just riding him. You have to understand when he was entered in that race I wrote here and spoke to Steve about it. Basically my feelings were Motion wasn't doing as I expected.....I didn't think he could win at a mile against older horses over a good course and at 4-1 I wouldn't have bet him with someone elses money. However I did say I'd watch him as I expected Motion to stretch him out at Gulf....I was hoping for a stake (of course depending on how he ran at laurel, I said I could tell where AL was by what Motion did afterwards). You see knowing how trainers do their job it was obvious AL didn't need to run at laurel. He's already shown he could with off of a protracted layoff, which told me Motion knows the horse. Why not ship and train in the sunny climes of Fla.? Why run at laurel in Dec over a good course?.....My guess is he needed the exercise and by your description of his physical appearance it makes sense. Look at the race in reality......this horse after almost coming to a complete stop in his second lifetime start...starts running again and gets third, this after a non descript first run. Against An ok horse in War Dancer.......after a layoff of 6 months he reels off two straight, the second against a nice group.....better than he faced at Laurel then he suddenly can't run?.....There has to be a reason no?....he didn't suddenly decide he doesn't want to run anymore. So I'm comfortable with it was exercise...... wrong course, wrong distance, he simply needed the race. The horse likes a firm course, he'll get it....he likes Gulf. His second race there showed he has a protracted run....he can just keep coming. I said I wanted him at no less than 1 1/8th......of course this is a bit further.....like 6f's further......So it's imperative we rate the horses he's entered against tomorrow and get it correct.....I'll start again before I'm cut off.......Mike A
pat gavin More than 1 year ago
David M9999, IF I were to be at Gulfstream to see Autobahn Legend live he would have to look a lot different. Just going over my notes of that Laurel run, in the paddock he came with all of strut, shine and vigor of a good one. but it was obvious to everyone that he was overweight. He was the "Full Monty" or Chris Farley when he would dress as a Chippendale dancer......absolutely fat and without a clue that he looked bad. I will be at Laurel today....with an agenda. I have an 11 point plan that I am giving away to the promotions director. I consult for a living and I usually would charge big money for this . I just love Maryland racing and at the very minimum THIS BATCH in charge of promotions is TRYING. No simple things like "Better and Cheaper food" or "more giveaways". Anyone can say that..... I remember a brilliant passage in "30 tons A Day" by Bill Veeck. This book was about the two years that Veeck owned and ran Suffolk Downs in the late 60's. The title was a metaphor for the amount of waste disposed by the horses per day....... and the amount of BS he had to take as the owner of this place. His big issue was the number of people who had free passes to get into the track. His quote and I am paraphrasing. {If people get used to not paying for your product when it stinks, they will not pay for it, EVER} He said that getting people IN is the key, but they MUST pay for it. You need value for that entrance fee and one of my ideas is to "give away" INFORMATION that helps drive the real moneymaker, the takeout!!. Might bet a few while I am there....Looking at "Outbacker" in the 6th Graced in the 7th and Holly Red Rocket in the 4th.
Rodney More than 1 year ago
Bernard, After the bad news yesterday.... some good news to cheer you up. Frankel's first foal born, a colt, something to soften the blow of St Nich.
VanSavant More than 1 year ago
Friends; Another prestigious Invitational High School Swim Meet this weekend, with the Prelims on Friday night, and Finals Saturday night. My daughter is seeded 10th in the 50 Free (out of 100), so she has a look at the Finals (Top 8), and certainly Consolations (9th through 16th). In the 100 Free, she is seeded 9th (out of 100), so the same type of scenario exists for this event. Physically, she is where she needs to be, I think, and I have never seen her so mentally strong as she has been this season. Her Coach is an amazing guy. She is so very poised and composed for a Junior competing at this high of a level. Hopefully this will be another big step forward for her, but with teenagers, like three year-olds, you just never can tell… Pins and needles for me this week, but I cam looking forward to it. I’ll snatch her out of school Friday afternoon at 2:00, we’ll run off to a late lunch, and she will be at the pool by 3:30 or so. Warm ups begins at 4:00. Meet starts at 5:00. My lovely wife will grab our son from school around 3:00, go to lunch, and join me at the pool around 4:30. They will stay for a couple of hours before heading out of town for his weekend swim meet a couple of hours away. They will be back home on Sunday. I hope it is a happy home! No ponies for me suffice it to say, but I will try and check in over the weekend. Later gators vs
DavidM9999 More than 1 year ago
Pat Gavin I just pulled the past performances for Autobahn Legend tomorrow. He certainly will be a long price in this field. The group includes half brothers to Winchester and Goldikova and several decent runners. Most of these have ran quite a few times on grass so breeding at this point is just conversational for me. The work pattern post the 12/04 race at LRL for AL has been quick on grass factoring in the dogs, apparently easier on grass (18/19) again with dogs up and then a dirt 4F. Since this race is Thursday the DRF workout reports are of no help (weekend only). I sure hate that. What is your interpretation of that pattern? The betting choices are all positioned outside. Pletcher has a second choice who has lost 4 straight times as a favorite now going to the outside. As a horizontal player these kind are not normally on my tickets. The favorite closed in sub 30 last out from the 12 hole and moves up for Clement. The last fraction was uninspiring but I need to look at the charts and videos from that day a bit. Mott has a 6-1 horse that exits three stakes. Well beaten in all but as a class handicapper the easier company grabs my eye at a number. I suspect 6-1 is a fairy tale. I notice Maryland trainer Iadisernia has a Galileo purchase from the Aidan O'Brien barn. Interestingly the horse had one running line versus Camelot (beaten 4L two years back in GR 1). I see these types occassionally appear in America. However I don't see much move up out of the O'Brien yard. I wish this was the HG race I as I would love to see how the community views this one. The late pick 4 is all turf so I likely will play this thing if on grass. All turf sequences outside Colonial can be hard to find. Now can I get firm, sunny and 75? Mike A - any thoughts on this one as you know AL so very well?
DavidM9999 More than 1 year ago
Bernard: Sorry to see St Nicholas die. It has been a tough year for horses. Van Savant Good to see Ride on Curlin win his 2014 return. He was the most impressive MSW winner I have seen at Ellis Park since On Fire Baby crushed a few years back. I thought he ran a couple of nice races after in the fall also. His trainer is one of the hottest in America over the last few weeks per BrisNet (mostly at smaller venues) so maybe they can get the best out of him. He was up for sale in 2013 so I expect if he really moves forward that might heat up again. You are not selling right? Annie - welcome back. I hope you are back to 100%.
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Last comment of the night. I don't remember who, but in a discussion of great Thoroughbreds, someone mentioned Go For Wand. She is one filly I thought deserved being mentioned in the same breath with Ruffian. Don't get me wrong, Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra were top notch as a mare and filly respectively, but the stars of Ruffian and Go For Wand shone so brightly and brilliantly for a year that are hard to forget. ( I know Rachel was a brilliant three year old, but it just felt different.)