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Top Winning Beyers, Questions and PP Requests
Let's get to some of your questions and comments.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week (January 24 - January 30):
1. CARACORTADO - 102 - Sunshine Millions Turf - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
2. AMAZOMBIE - 101 - Sunshine Millions Sprint - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3. SWITCH - 100 - Santa Monica Stakes (Grade 1) - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
3. TACKLEBERRY - 100 - Sunshine Millions Classic - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
5. INHERIT THE GOLD - 99 - Mr. International Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
6. DIALED IN - 96 - Holy Bull Stakes (Grade 3) - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
6. FLAT BOLD - 96 - OC 75k/N3X-N - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
6. MODERN COWBOY - 96 - Bald Eagle Stakes - 1 Mile (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
6. RUNFLATOUT - 96 - Md Sp Wt 54k - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
6. ZONGA ZING - 96 - OC 40k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Turfway
11. GANGSTERONTHERUN - 95 - OC 50k/N1X-N - 5 Furlongs - Gulfstream
11. MYTHICAL POWER - 95 - OC 80k/N3X-N - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
11. SCHRAMSBERG - 95 - John B. Connally Handicap (Grade 3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Sam Houston
14. MIA'S ANGEL - 94 - Alw 40500N1X - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
14. NATIVE RULER - 94 - King Cotton Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
14. TORO TRIPPI - 94 - Clm c-(10-9) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
17. IT HAPPENED AGAIN - 93 - OC 40k/N3L - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
17. SELF INSURED - 93 - Clm 10000(10-9) - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
17. TEND - 93 - Forego Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Turfway
17. TRIP FOR A. J. - 93 - Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
21. HUD'S REBEL - 92 - OC 25k/N2X-N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
21. KID KATE - 92 - Correction Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
21. RICORIATOA - 92 - Clm 35000(35-25) - 6 Furlongs (Inner Track) - Aqueduct
24. AEGEAN - 91 - Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Sprint - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
24. GHOST IS CLEAR - 91 - Md Sp Wt 39k - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
24. HEY ELVIS (AUS) - 91 - Clm 50000(50-40) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. SPORTING ART - 91 - Clm 50000(50-40) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. WINTER CAMP - 91 - Alw 32000N2X - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Sunland
Caracortado's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
The Wishing Well is coming up this Sunday at Santa Anita. Wishing Well was one of my mom's favorite horses so we were all obviously big fans of her son when he first started racing. Can you please post her PP's
Wishing Well's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan if you would please print his PPs for me I have lost my forms from the 70s. probably my wife doing spring cleaning at some time or other. what a horse. thanks and good luck all
Big Red's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Can David Cohen really only had one ride for Richard Dutrow in 2010 and 2011?
The only time they teamed up was for Sensationalist's win in a $40,000 maiden claimer at Monmouth on September 6, 2010.
Was wondering what your thoughts were regarding the Track Variant conversation, in terms of whether or not you actively utilized them in your handicapping, and if so, in what manner. Also,
do you add the Speed Rating to the Variant. If so what does that figure tell you? You may have addressed this in the past, but it's like tuning on the TV or radio sometimes, I may have missed the part that went on before
I must admit that I do not use the DRF Speed Rating and Track Variant in my handicapping. I tend to make my own performance figures that I'll utilize in conjunction with my trip notes. Many handicappers still do add the speed rating and track variant to calculate a "speed" number, but I think the addition of the Beyer Speed Figures in the past performances has overshadowed these older numbers in terms of importance.
I do agree with p ensign when he wrote "...It can also, sometimes, give me a clue as to whether a wet track was perhaps wet-fast or tiring, or a turf race truly was being run in a bog..." A huge variant, like something in the 40's may indicate that a course was very soft, and could indicate an "excuse" for a horse that gave a poor performance (like Trix in the City in our HandiGambling exercise a few weeks back).
Dan, Can you tell me how long before the race a trainer must put in a claim for a certain horse.
It depends on the jurisdiction. For example, in New York, the rule is expressed in this way:
"All claims shall be in writing, sealed in an envelope and deposited in a locked box provided for this purpose by the racing secretary or his designee, at least 10 minutes before post time. Claim slip forms must be completely filled out and must, in the judgment of the stewards, be sufficiently accurate to identify the claim, otherwise the claim will be void. No money shall accompany the claim. Each person desiring to make a claim, unless he shall have such amount to his credit with the association, must first deposit with the association the whole amount of the claim , in a manner approved by the racing secretary or designee for which a receipt will be given. All claims shall be passed upon by the stewards, and the person determined at the closing time for claiming to have the right of claim shall become the owner of the horse when the start is effected, whether it be alive or dead, sound or unsound or injured before or during the race or after it, except that the claim is voidable at the discretion of the new owner pursuant to the conditions stated in section 4038.18 of this subchapter [unless the age or sex of such horse has been misrepresented], and subject to the provisions of subdivision (b) of this section. In the event more than one person should enter a claim for the same horse, the disposition of the horse shall be decided by lot by the stewards. Any horse so claimed shall then be taken to the test barn for delivery to the claimant after the test sample is taken."
Here's the ruling in California:
"All claims shall be in writing on a form approved by the Board, and shall be sealed and deposited in the claim box at least 15 minutes before the post time of the race in which the horse to be claimed is entered. (b) No money shall accompany a claim form. Any person or racing interest making a claim shall first have the amount of the claim on deposit with the association or the paymaster of purses at the meeting. The paymaster or other authorized official shall verify the amount required is on deposit and that the person submitting the claim is eligible to claim under Rule 1651 of this division by initialling or otherwise marking the claim envelope. (c) The filing of a claim by depositing the claim form in the claim box constitutes a contract of purchase at the established price and under the rules for claiming. NOTE: Authority cited: Section 19562, Business and Professions Code. Reference: Sections 19408.2 and 19562, Business and Professions Code. HISTORY: 1. Amendment filed 4-21-83; effective 5-21-83. 2. Amendment filed 12-6-99; effective 12-6-99."
Do you have any updates on the following horses? Conveyance, Buckleupbuttercup, Flawless, Cocalero, or Bullet From Abroad? I haven't heard anything in a long time. Thanks
Conveyance is in Dubai with trainer Satish Seemar. The connections are hopeful to find a race for him on Dubai World Cup evening.
Buckleupbuttercup was reportedly sidelined with a hairline fracture following a poor performance in the Test at Saratoga. It is hopeful that she will return to training this year.
I believe that Cocalero is wintering in Florida for Godolphin. He is listed as a "Horse in Training" on their website.
Haven't heard anything about the Bill Mott-trained Flawless after she finished second in an entry-level allowance race at Belmont in June. Also, I am not sure of Bullet From Abroad's status.
Now that Zenyatta's first mate has been chosen, who would you choose to be the first mate for Goldikova (assuming she retires after winning her next Breeders' Cup Mile this fall)? I'm leaning towards a son of Danehill.
I'd send her to Galileo, who has been a wonderful stud in Europe. A son of Sadler's Wells, Galileo would give the resulting foal a 3Sx4Dx5D cross with the legendary Northern Dancer (sire of Sadler's Wells, great-grandsire of Goldikova, grandsire of Goldikova's second dam, Riviere D'Or). There would be a little bit of Mr. Prospector in there with Galileo's broodmare sire Miswaki a son of Mr. P.
I'm more interested in what some of our pedigree experts have to say about a possible mating.
JIMENEZ, Alex (C)
Dirt Sprints – 0% Win, 50% ITM (No Wins)
Dirt Routes – 0% Win, 100% ITM (No Wins)
Turf Sprints – 0% Win, 0% ITM (No Wins)
Turf Routes – 0% Win, 0% ITM (No Wins)
Has shown up a couple of times, as far as I knew he was in the Midwestern circuit, not sure if he is just passing through or what. Regardless he is a very competent rider on dirt, don’t know about his turf ability. He could be an interesting add to the jockey farm.
From the January 13 edition of "Santa Anita Stable Notes":
"...Agent Jerry Palermo has taken the book of Alex Jimenez. The 30-year-old rider was born in Mexico City but is no stranger to scenic Santa Anita. “I graduated from Arcadia High School,” said Jimenez, a nephew of Patrick Valenzuela, who is named to ride in all eight races Thursday. “I’ve been riding in New Mexico, Oklahoma and Iowa, every place that has a casino,” Jimenez said."
Another very interesting Cal horse is The Factor. Very fast and in Baffert's barn. I would love to see Runflatout and The Factor race at 1 mile or over. I think we will before long, but does anyone know where The Factor is pointing to for certain?
As of right now, it looks as if The Factor is heading to the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs on February 20 at Santa Anita.
Hi Dan, could you please post the pps for these champs: Vanlandingham, Commentator and Peppers Pride? Thank so much in advance!
José Iglesias García
They are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Do you have any information on JB's Thunder? Is he on the Derby trail?
His connections believe that he is a better horse on turf and synthetics. Here is a report from Marcus Hersh posted on drf.com on January 8:
DAN...when u get the chance could u bring up the pp's of ba ba's bunch..thx
The past performances are listed at the bottom of this blog post.
I like late running white horses. Can you please post Vigors' PPs?
*Dan, The second race (MSW) at Santa Anita today: I have a feeling that Runflatout's winning time of 1:07.70, maybe the fastest ever for a first time starter at 6 furlongs in North America. CAN YOU PLEASE LOOK INTO THIS?
The past performances are listed at the bottom of this blog post.
Jim, I'll do some research concerning the winning time, and will post the results when they are ready.
Congrats to Mike O for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. He selects the 8th race at Aqueduct on Thursday for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all
|Wishing Well.pdf||43.49 KB|
|Ba Ba's Bunch.pdf||56.38 KB|
KYL Syndicate "2011 Wagers" 5k bankroll : Current Balance (482) Have the day off and will blog when anything of interest comes up to wager... Will tread lightly in the first few races at Aqueduct both because its maidens and to see how the track plays. Weather is suppose to be ugly again tomorrow and likely be sloppy, so this has turned out to be a 'off' racing week for Aqueduct. Good luck with the pick 6 carryover as it will be bet down to a pick 5 with the heavy favorite in race 8...
blackseabass Re Tonto Too-I'm out of there. First time on turf, limited info on most of the starters. Thornbury's not terrific on turf, and at the 3-1 M/L it is just not worth the risk-IMO. I'll try to collect the debt next time-maybe.
Alan, The article before was from J. Kristufek, the morning line maker at Arlington Park. Not sure if you've gone on vacation (I had to dig out of twenty inches of snow), but you're right that Arlington's turf rails are more complicated than say, NYRA. The thing that makes it complicated at AP is figuring out what is zero. Zero inner is "Lane 1, 10ft inside", and Lane 1 is actually with the rail at 10 ft out. That's "Absolute Zero". Lane 5 is Zero Outer, 62 from Lane 1 and 72 feet from Zero. Zero Outer is the setting for marquee races. At least Arlington, before each card, puts all rail positions on its "track maintenance" page. Mike A., To me, rail placement at AP is situational. An evenly matched field, and usually lower level, would be where placements get tossed into the equation. I'd probably gloss over it in say, the Beverly D. Stakes. Whacky, Despite your pleas to run HG events at warm weather tracks and not on AQU's inner dirt, I'd rather put my head in a blender set to puree than bet on Gulfstream.
Ron Z A bit more on GGF: Even though it is my home track, I actually don't play it much. I can't stand the small fields, and worse, the cheap stock. I only play it when I think I have an edge: usually related to Trainer/Jock combos, or in some sprints, a speed figure trick or two. I only play ten to twelve total races per week, always on weekends. Of those, maybe three or four are at GGF. The others I play are some or all of the PH races, maybe an interesting stake race somewhere else, and perhaps something from my Stable Watch List. Because of the "edge", though, I have a much better ROI at GGF than anywhere else, which is probably logical. blackseabass Our old friend-Tonto Too-is running tomorrow in the 8th at Fair Grounds. The one hole, at 7 1/2 furlongs, with a M'L of 3-1. I figure he owes both of us some money, so I am going to take a hard look at the PP's late tonight to see if I, at least, can get paid back. The PH races finally came out-I will not play Tampa (can't bet it at the OTB, so I don't play on PH unless I can bet), but will the other three. I'll post something late tonight-subject to some more research, I'm really liking Rule in the Donn. But I need to do some more work.
MKB news -- Apparently, Cool Blue Red Hot is off the Derby trail. From John Pricci @HRI today: "The last stop was Barn 26, where Angel Penna Jr. was working on payroll. Penna trains the talented Cool Blue Red Hot who, coincidentally, finished second To Soldat in that Jan. 21 allowance race. It turned out to be a bit of a sore subject. “'He’s a May foal and I didn’t want his first race back to be too hard on him. I told the rider you’re going to be laying second or third. Whatever you do, wait until after the three-eighths pole to make your move. If he gets there, he gets there; there’s always the next race. Don’t you know he starts chasing [Soldat] at the half-mile pole, even earlier than I wanted?! He wasn’t ready for that and it took him four days to get his normal appetite back. He’s fine now, but he’s off the Derby trail. He’ll be at his very best around Travers time.'” captcha: ectiona arcubius. oh, my
Ron Z I was just kidding you about the small tracks. I would never pick a GGF race for the HG-the problems of a small field in a Contest Race are obvious. GGF did have one race, about three weeks ago, with 11 horses-a $100,000+ purse (California Derby) for three year olds. I was disappointed that the race wasn't included in the PH races that day-instead they took smaller stake races from Turfway and Tampa. The GGF race turned out to be a terrific race, although the chalk won (I was happy for that). Caseyjeaux has an interesting suggestion re using the DRF Race of the Day for the HG-I think that is a fine idea. None of this is serious, in any event. Whatever most people want is fine by me. I would just like more people to think about the whole Blog, including the weather and field size, before selecting their own favorite track, or whatever.
Chicago Gerry, Sorry about that fall . At least you're okay. I did enjoy the myth vs. reality post while having my own take on some of them. I'll be interested in seeing the others. HG race selection, I personally don't want to make suggestions to the person that earned the right to select the HG. If I ever stumble into the HG winners circle I'll probably choose a Downhill if available.(that might please Steve T . Alan & Van Savant) If not a 4000clm N1Y at GG might be on the agenda.(sorry Blackstone)LOL. If it happens in the summer I may well overlook Saratoga & Del Mar in favor of the Ca. Fair circuit. Possibly a 400yd Mule sprint where the Black Brothers might have an edge.(what say you Blackstone ?) LOL. I'm not sure anybody other than me & Blackstone around here has ever stooped to betting Mules. I mean real Mules not the kind that run at FG or Aqu. LOL. I think the Mule idea would be fun just for the sake of reading LSD's race analysis .LOL.Have you ever bet a real Mule LSD ?
Today (Fri 2/4) at Gulfstream...5th race looks interesting...1 1/6 turf 80 optional Claimer. Keeping an eye on the 9 Horse...Shirley She Can for Zito...wired maidens at Belmont...ran a bang up second...then tailed off...shipped down to Calder and won at 1 1/8 off the pace, which was uncharacteristic...had Bravo up, who timed ride perfectly. Gets Paco Lopez today..Bravo rides for Clemente on the 4. If the 1 Horse General Consensus is ready to run off the layoff...could be tough...Wild Mia (8) is making a class drop..is the chalk and looks tough...as does the 7 Profiteroles...but if I can get 7 or 8-1 on Shirley...may give it a shot. Good luck to all
Meathead, This is not a joke. I'm a big Dummy sometimes.
blackstone, Camarero (CMR) is actually in Puerto Rico... it is the old El Comandante. John N, Temperature will not affect every horse the same way. Look for excessive sweating... but don't confuse it with a horse that was just hosed down. High humidity is generally a negative for front runners. Ron, RE: HG... as an outside observer, I would suggest deducting the imaginary money bet on losing combos.