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Top Winning Beyers, Horses to Watch, HG pp's
Here are the top 20 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races:
105 - Soaring Empire - Hal's Hope Stakes (Grade 3) - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
105 - Travelin Man - Maiden Special Weight - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
102 - Cash Refund - 'N2Y' Optional Claimer - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
102 - Winning Touch - 'N2X' Optional Claimer - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
100 - Aggie Engineer - San Pasqual Stakes (Grade 2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
98 - Black Hills - Winsham Lad Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Sunland
97 - Apriority - 'N2X' Optional Claimer - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
97 - Poppa's Pick - $35,000 Claimer - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
97 - Westover Wildcat - 'N3X' Optional Claimer - 6 Furlongs - Parx
96 - Peter's Creek - $25,000 Optional Claimer - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
96 - Streetsofbrooklyn - 'N2X' Optional Claimer - 1 Mile - Laurel
95 - Little Mike - Fort Lauderdale Stakes (Grade 3) - 1 1/16 Miles Turf - Gulfstream
95 - Unbridle's Dream - 'ALW-C' Allowance - 1 Mile Turf - Santa Anita
94 - Final Mesa - Old Hat Stakes (Grade 3) - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
94 - Hot Damon - 'N1X' Allowance - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
94 - S. S. Stone - $20,000 'N2L' Claimer - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
93 - Fast Master - Maiden Special Weight - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
92 - Feel That Fire - 'N1X' Allowance - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
92 - Honeymoon Girl - 'N1X' Allowance - 1 1/16 Miles Turf - Gulfstream
92 - See I A - Pelican Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Tampa Bay
92 - Sleepless Knight - 'N3X' Optional Claimer - 1 Mile Turf - Gulfstream
The past performances for Soaring Empire and Travelin Man are available at the bottom of the blog post.
*Travelin Man, a homebred son of Trippi, made quite the impression in his debut for Todd Pletcher. The three-year-old won his career debut at Gulfstream going six furlongs in 1:09.09, winning by 7 1/4 lengths under John Velazquez. Travelin Man is out of West Side Dancer, a Gone West mare that won a race from nine starts (7 furlong maiden special at Gulfstream Park). West Side Dancer is a half-sister to Lieutenant Danz, a stakes-placed sprinter on four occasions.
Travelin Man's female family is loaded with class. The third dam, Lassie's Lady, is kin to Weekend Surprise, the dam of classic winners A.P. Indy and Sumemr Squall.
Travelin Man's win will likely put him on the Derby Trail but, as a son of Trippi, may have some distance limitations to overcome.
*Keep an eye out for unraced Trippi's Charm, another three-year-old son of Trippi trained by Pletcher. He worked the same time as Travelin Man on November 21, December 6, December 13, and December 20 at Palm Meadows. Some other interesting Pletcher maidens are R King of the Road (Trippi - Holiday Tune, by Concorde's Tune) and Katz My Song (Unbridled's Song - Katz Me If You Can, by Storm Cat)
*Winning Touch, a four-year-old filly trained by Chad Brown, made it three for four after winning a six-furlong sprint over the Aqueduct inner track. Purchased for $270,000 as a yearling, Winning Touch is by Tale of the Cat and is a half-sister to multiple stakes-winning sprinter One Special Judge.
*Fast Master, a $435,000 yearling by Tiznow, made his belated debut a winning one at Santa Anita on January 7. Trained by Bob Baffert, the gelding won his six-furlong maiden by a length in 1:07.95. Fast Master is a half-sister to Black Rock Road, a stakes-winner on grass at nine furlongs. Another half-sibling, Intact, won stakes races at 6 1/2 furlongs and one mile. Although very quick, if this one stays healthy, he may have a future in longer-distance races.
I have a couple of Beyer speed figure related questions.
First, what do you make of the Hal's Hope? It seemed to me that the "big 3" horses were struggling that last bit, with a final quarter in almost 25 and 4. The fact that Morning Line, who appeared well beaten coming into the stretch, was able to hang around indicates to me that Soaring Empire and Rule weren't running all that strongly either(yet I do recognize that Morning Line, like First Dude, has shown the ability to hang around when apparently beaten).
However, the Gulfstream dirt track appeared to be very, very slow Saturday, so that final quarter might not be that bad, especially when considering the relatively quick(for the day) early fractions. Obviously, Team Beyer agreed and gave the race a 105. Thus, the figs say it was a fairly strong race, but my visual impression was that of tired horses in the stretch.
Second, would you happen to know the Beyer of Baffert's maiden claiming winner, Donato, who took the closing 9th at Santa Anita on Sunday the 2nd?
I agree with you 100% on the Hal's Hope. The number came back strong, but I wasn't blown away visually. Morning Line was in a full-out drive with three furlongs to run, made his final lead switch early on the turn, and wasn't very good (despite being beaten less than five lengths).
I did like that the winner was closer to the pace than usual. Soaring Empire has some bad habits. He often balks before entering the starting gate, and has an annoying tendency to wait on horses when he makes the lead. If you watch the stretch run of the Hal's Hope, you'll notice him drift out a couple of paths in midstretch when alone on the front. I think he does have some talent and bears watching in one-turn races.
The horse to take out of the race may be Rule. Remember that it was his first start since the Florida Derby, and he came with a little bit of a late run (albeit in a slow final quarter). He should move forward off this race, and it will be interesting to see if he employs front-running tactics in longer-distance races down the road.
So, how to analyze the race? I thought it was a solid win over good company. I am concerned that Morning Line didn't run well and wonder if Soaring Empire can put two big races back-to-back. I would follow Rule, but wouldn't be surprised if he gets bet heavily off this effort.
Donato, a three-year-old gelded son of Broken Vow, sold for $150,000 as a yearling. Out of stakes-winner Turn to Lass, a half-sister to multiple Grade 3 winner Spotsgone, Donato received an 83 Beyer for his romping victory in a $30,000 maiden claimer on January 2.
Hey Dan - what the hell ever happened to Georgie Boy? Did they finally give up?
I'm not sure if the connections have given up on Georgie Boy, but I have. I moved him from the "Disabled" part of the Disabled List (I'm still updating and will try to have it up fairly soon) to the "Where Have They Gone" portion. He is currently row #2400 on the List and hasn't shown any published activity since April 8, 2009.
Dan, two completely unrelated questions:
A) Could you please find out for me what the Beyer number was on Rumor, who won on Race 6 on Saturday at Santa Anita?
B) Have you ever considered signing up for Twitter? Have a feeling you would be a natural at it.
Rumor, an Indian Charlie filly that sold for $440,000 as a yearling, is a half-sister to Norfolk Stakes (G1) winner Dixie Chatter. Trained by Richard Mandella, Rumor received an 85 Beyer Speed Figure for her winning debut at Santa Anita on New Year's Eve.
I'm not much for the social networking sites as I don't have a Twitter, or a MySpace, or a Facebook for that matter. I think I would enjoy "tweeting" if I was at the track instead of in the office, as I could give out some paddock information on front bandages, equipment changes, etc. Perhaps I'll try it one day, but for now, I'll stick to FormBlog.
Blackstone or anyone who might know:
Thursday's 5th at gg has two P Flores listed to ride:
#1 Flores P 3% season, 5% 2010-11
#3 Flores Pablo 3%, 5% 2010-11
1. is the #1 Flores Pedro?
Yes, it is. Pablo Flores is 10-0-0-1 at the current Golden Gate Fields meet while Pedro Flores is 7-0-1-2. Both riders have a lifetime winning percentage around 7%. Here are their statistics over the past three full years:
2010: 125-5-6-7, 4%, $0.89 ROI
2009: 183-18-14-16, 9%, $2.12 ROI
2008: 279-22-39-24, 7%, $1.40 ROI
2010: 259-14-18-30, 5%, $1.77 ROI
2009: 131-7-3-8, 5%, $1.38 ROI
2008: 262-11-17-21, 4%, $0.53 ROI
Dan, I was wondering if you can show the PP's of my favorite horse,
Fit to Scout
Fit to Scout's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan can you post the pp's for A.P. Indy and Native Dancer??
The lifetime past performances for both Horse of the Year winners are available at the bottom of the blog post.
Dan, I was wondering if you can show the PP's of some of my favorite horses in the 1980's they are;
Jones Time machine
Thank you, Ron...
The past performances from those runners from the 1980's are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Also, I hate to ask, Dan, because I feel like you are always bombarded with PP requests but if you can get around to it, can you post Shadow Warrior's dams past performances. Or, in the alternative, there might be some knoweledable bloggers out there who can pass on some info for me. I know from pedigree inquiry that she had 5 wins, 1 place, and 2 shows out of nine starts but that is it. Thanks
The past performances for Victory Ride, a $475,000 yearling purchase, are available at the bottom of this blog post. Victory Ride is a half-sister to Hollywood Derby (Grade 1) winner River Flyer.
Dan, Could you help with some past performances for the main players of the 1975 Triple Crown: Foolish Pleasure, Master Derby, Avatar, and Diablo? Thanks!
They're available at the bottom of the blog posting.
My first HG event in awhile....
Love horses with a few training efforts over the track....
#1 shows this and looks to be the obvious favorite...so I'll make it simple:
I also like the #4 as well...so
$100 exacta 1 over the 4 cold....
good luck to all!
Congrats to Mickey for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. He selects Wednesday's eighth race at Gulfstream for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
PS - Ron, Gordon P., and Mickey should all have access to their HG prizes.
|Soaring Empire.pdf||615.79 KB|
|Travelin Man.pdf||613.52 KB|
|Fit to Scout.pdf||54.96 KB|
|A.P Indy.pdf||90.72 KB|
|Native Dancer.pdf||66.49 KB|
|1980s runners.pdf||66.93 KB|
|Victory Ride.pdf||574.41 KB|
|1975 Triple Crown.pdf||43.21 KB|
Eenjoy reading all the info.that you pass on to everyone,keep up your good works and good luck to all. Tommy R.
More On James Divito DiVito has an entrant at GP today-5th race-Papa Tango. It is his first start since his debut win at Hawthorne on December 4th. While I can't get free from work to go and make a bet, it will be fun, for me, to see how the horse does in the "Major Leagues". The M/L of 3-1 is kind of interesting at this level of competition. So we"ll see.
HG 218 This may be a good betting race since I don’t think the two morning line favorites Tapitsfly and Miss World are going to fire. #8-Miss World - looked good in the summer of ‘09 winning those races in NY including the G1 Garden City but has done nothing since. She couldn’t even win an OC 75k/n3x 2 months ago. #6-Tapitsfly has been off 14 months and I can’t believe her connections will have her all out for this race. #1-Barracks Road- Seems to run well fresh, some bullet works for this and a very good turf rider. The pick. #3- Me Love- 5 works for this and a winning trainer. #5- Go for Jan- Working well and will have something to run at. Sprinter may be looking for the extra distance. #10- Sweet Theresa- Another with good works and good connections. Will be running late. $20 Ex- 1/3,5,10 $10 Ex- 10/1,3,5 $10 Win #1
HG 218: No, obvious, eliminations from win spot on ticket. Must dig deep. Since Beyer figs range from 93 to 78 for overall ability and from 93 to 80 at 1 Mile + up, a simplistic approach picks 88 as the arbitrary “Mendoza Line” for win consideration. Of course, this strategy eliminates the 2009 BC Juv. Fillie Turf winner. The next race after a BC performance has been a huge negative key for me. How an extra year hiatus impacts Tapitsfly is a guess. I am leaning against her based on the 84 Beyer. My contenders are: 1-Barracks Road should be right there. However, something about the way this gal loses close finishes is not appealing. 2-Trix in the City has 3 Turf starts at 1 mile and up. Last was an excuse, prior was good Saratoga effort. 7-Profiteroles earned her 91 Beyer at Monmouth in June. Beyers have regressed since, but the change from Valdivia to Trujillo is a positive. 8-Miss World may be favored and has a 50% in the exacta record. The 92 Beyer is Sept 09, but solid effort in a Grade 3 in last is a positive. 11-Romin Robin has the top Beyer in a rout. Positive rider change appeals. I will key the 7 + 11 on top for this event. $3 Trifecta # 7,11 WT # 1,2,6,7,8,11 WT # 1,2,6,8 = $96 $4 Exacta 7 over 11
HG218 I think #1 Barracks Road will get the jump on these and if she can get a comfortable lead, I don't think anyone will run her down. #8 Miss World will be be coming late and is the one to watch for down the stretch. #6 Tapitsfly seems to be the class, but I'm guessing (hoping?) that she's going to be a little short in this one. So, I'll go: $80 W #1 Barracks Road $10 Ex 1 / 6,8
HG Update Field of 11 will go. Take out the #12 Ms Vanenzza Good luck Whackymacky out!!!
Mike A., Called my son in New York today, and asked him about the status of snow there. Hope you don't get hit too hard where you are at. Hope you have a good rest of the day!
Curt A silly little thing-but do you know or remember the song on the other side of the 45 version of Splish Splash? I only ask because it has been my wife's and my theme song for 40 plus years (this is not much of a hint, but it contains my wife's first name, hence the theme song of our marriage)
ooops! HG 218 *Correction $2 Super 1 / 6,7,8,11 / 7,10 / 4,6,8,10,11 = $50 $2 Super 10 / 1,7 / 4,6,8,10,11 / 6,7,8,11 =$50
Positive Debut ROI’s Dan commented last summer that the DRF Debut Reports were under-utilized. Based on that comment I did a little study of the Trainer Debut Data to try and find some nuggets. It worked. I found James DiVito, Doug Matthews, and Sid Attard –I ended up going four for nine on those three trainers with their debut horses for the balance of the year. I’ve updated the review to include all of 2010-below is a list of trainers with positive debut ROI’s. I put these limits on the data collection: 1.I only looked for trainers that I can bet through the California OTB System-obviously it does me no good unless I can bet on something. 2.I excluded trainers with less than ten debut starts-nothing scientific-I just don’t wan t to follow someone who only runs a few times a year. 3.I excluded trainers who’s number was heavily influenced by one or two “bombs” (see Ed Moger for an example). Here is the list-number of starts, wins, and ROI: Sid Attard 15-5-$5.93 Chad Brown 61-11-$2.36 David Carroll 24-6-$3.82 Sam DiPasquale 10-5-$5.86 James DiVito 13-6-$6.42 Kenneth Gleason 11-4-$6.07 Chuck Jenda 14-3-$5.86 Bud Klokstad 12-3-$5.03 R. Mandella 28-8-$3.56 Doug Matthews 10-4-$9.26 Peter Miller 31-5-$2.49 Wm. Morey, Jr. 23-6-$2.84 Dennis Patterson 10-3-$3.36 Dean Pederson 14-4-$2.23 Michael Reavis 18-5-$2.21 John Sadler 41-7-$2.80 Steve Sherman 50-13-$2.47 Steve Specht 26-6-$3.02 Jeffrey Thombury 11-4-$5.27 Kathy Walsh 13-4-$3.25 Of the above list, Attard, Carroll, DiVito, Klokstad, and Sadler also had positive debut ROI’s for at least two of the prior three years (2007-2009). We’re all different, of course, but I know I will be following a few of these people looking for their debut runners.