08/31/2010 8:14AM

Top Winning Beyers (8/16 - 8/29)

By Dan Illman
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As promised, here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from the last two weeks of racing.

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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from August 16 to August 22:
 


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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from August 23 to August 29:
 



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Lifetime past performances for Atta Boy Roy and El Brujo are available at the bottom of this blog entry.

Extremely busy with Spa Babies this week so I'll be back tomorrow with your questions, comments, and pp request.  Let's give cayman01 so time to sift through the Travers HandiGambling before we make anything official.

Have a great day!

Dan

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September 01, 2010
01:24 PM

Posted by Jim C.

Alan makes a good point, but I am not sure if I agree with him. Rather, I agree with GunBow that the scales for SoCal synthetic races are lower, per class level, than Eastern dirt races. Hence, there still remains a bias in the BSFs against SoCal synthetic horses. (And the lower scale is not justified, because SoCal shippers who go East run just fine over dirt tracks, e.g.: Zardana, Zenyatta, Lookin at Lucky, Blind Luck, Evening Jewel, American Lion (Illinois Derby), Line of David (Arkansas Derby), Game on Dude (Lone Star Derby), Conveyance, and Concord Point.)

Synthetic tracks mute speed. The races play more like turf: i.e., slow pace, compressed fields, and not as much distance between the winner and the last finisher relative to dirt races. (As Alan points out). Put another way, comparing dirt tracks with synthetic tracks is like comparing running over asphalt to running over sand. Hence, it simply defies logic that a horse who ran a better final time at the same distance over a synthetic surface (Richard's Kid) is 10 Beyer points lower (or had a "worse performance" by 5.5 to 7 lengths) than a horse who ran the same distance in more time over dirt (Afleet Express). This undermines the notion that BSFs are "portable."

BSF's also do not account for slow pace, lost ground, and weight carried, but that is another topic. But what galls me is that some Eclipse Award voters consult BSFs, which is not warranted.

September 01, 2010
12:13 PM

Posted by Kyri Freeman

I share Laura's depression over Kantharos' injury. Yeah, I know this happens all the time, but he really seemed special, and he was one of "my" horses, on my watch list before he ever made his first start.

Two other watch horses of mine are Afleet Express, and Bank Heist, who just broke his maiden with a 95 BSF...

Even putting them on a watch list makes them "mine" to me on some level -- I don't think I could take the emotional roller coaster of really owning racehorses! (and don't talk to me about "you shouldn't get attached" because I think that's both BS and impossible.)
September 01, 2010
11:53 AM

Posted by steve taylor

Gerry-

I use formulator and use the option to block ml odds. It has lead to some nice prices. But convention goers remember that our lineage Joe kristufek is as accurate as any ml maker in the country.
September 01, 2010
09:41 AM

Posted by knm

Blackstone,

I didn't want to sound too highbrow, LOL! We're going to Stratford's Shakespeare Festival to see 'The Tempest'. Stratford is about 2 1/1 hours from Toronto, so it usually involves a picnic by the river Avon, the matinee and dinner. No time for racing.
September 01, 2010
09:28 AM

Posted by Whackymacky

What is that saying from the Wizard Of Oz??

Oh ya " If I only had a brain"

His luck didn't last long.

A Queens man who had just cashed a $29,000 winning ticket at a Queens OTB was robbed of his winnings at gunpoint minutes after leaving the parlor, police sources said yesterday.

Danill Corpuz, 54, had the cash stuffed in a North Face knapsack as he left the branch in Jamaica at 4 p.m. Monday. As he walked toward his vehicle at 181st Street and 89th Avenue, a hulking, 6-foot-4 man with a gun snarled, "Give me the money!"

The bandit swiped the pack and fled along 181st Street.

Corpuz did not return messages seeking comment.

OTB spokesman Morgan Hook said bettors have an option of being paid by check, instead of cash, so it can be canceled and replaced if stolen or lost. He said the $29,000 payoff after taxes is "an exceptional hit for any branch."


Is this an East Coast thing? What a putz!!!!!

Whackymacky Out!!!
September 01, 2010
07:45 AM

Posted by Jim C.

Beyer Speed Figures regarding Southern California tracks are not reliable. What Beyer does not understand is that synthetic tracks are more taxing to run on. That is why Richard's Kid having a better final time, at the same distance, than Afleet Express cannot rationally translate into Richard's Kid being assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95 compared to Afleet Express' 105. That is an approximate SEVEN LENGTH difference.
September 01, 2010
07:25 AM

Posted by Jeffrey

Greetings Alan,

I wanted to thank you for your much appreciated contribution to the discussion. Your findings run consistent with my own observations, as somebody who plays both synthetic and conventional dirt tracks. Also, it avoids any spurious accusations of untoward motivations while providing a rational explanation for the discrepancy in BSF's between the best runners on each surface. It does seem the case that there is less separation between synthetic stakes horses, which explains why the mean BSF is the same for each surface. Also, it seems that final times for winners are less impressive for synthetic runners, especially as the distance increases. Your statistics and analysis warrant further consideration by those who construct BSF's.

Another point to DRF: I think it would help clear up confusion and potential accusations of unfairness if you devoted some time to player education on BSF's; I'm thinking in particular of the disrepancy in BSF's for dirt, synthetic dirt, and turf. There is a common perception that figures achieved on each surface are directly interchangeable. If figures achieved on one surface need to be evaluated independently of other surfaces, then DRF has a responsibility to clear up this misperception.

Thank you,

Jeffrey
September 01, 2010
01:26 AM

Posted by Oh What A Dance

Hi Dan, enjoy your blog very much..

If possible, could you please post the PPs for some of these old Phipps/McGaughey runners? Dispute, Educated Risk, My Flag and Miner's Mark.
September 01, 2010
12:21 AM

Posted by GunBow

Yes, precisely. The low Beyers are a synthetic thing not a East/West thing. Yes, because all of the 3 big SoCal tracks have synthetic main surfaces, there is overlap, giving the appearance of East Coast bias. However, the low Beyers simply reflect the fact that the synthetic scale is, per class level, lower than the dirt scale, just as the turf scale is lower. The best dirt horses over the last 2 decades have run Beyers between 123 and 128, while the best turf horses have run Beyers from 114 to 119. The top end synthetic Beyers are like top end turf Beyers, about 7-10 points lower than their dirt equivalent. Once one recognizes that we're talking about different sclaes when comparing dirt and synthetic Beyers, it will all make more sense.
August 31, 2010
11:03 PM

Posted by blackstone

Mike A/ Steve T/ Alan

Thank you for the thoughts on the BSF's. What's hard to believe is that if all of you can see this as plainly as you clearly do, and from different perspectives, why in the world can't the Brass at BSF and/or DRF see the same things? My guess is that they surely can and do, but have so much invested both emotionally and in actual capital, that they just refuse to recognize the weaknesses and take any corrective actions. I'm thinking that before too long someone else will come up with a better system, if they haven't already.

Mike A
I agree with you about the turf BSF's. It is hard, though, to ignore them as they are plastered throughout the PP's for every horse, AND, they are treated with such piety in every article published in the DRF. I know they create opportunities, but as I said the other day, it still irritates me. Thank you for the thoughtful response, though.

KNM
Cultural interlude? Explain please. Ballet? Opera? Pig Races? Clever term as it sure got me thinking about the possibilities.
August 31, 2010
11:02 PM

Posted by Van Savant

Del Mar – 9/1/10 – Wednesday’s Card

Race #1 – Tuba Man, Big Revolution, Scorsese, Action in Motion
Race #2 – Quick Enough, Ron Bob and Dave, Quietly Mine
Race #3 – Backstreet Dancer, Tiz o’ Gold, Too Much Xcitement, Kiss My Swiss
Race #4 – Café Con Leche, Arkham Asylum, Quoted, Best Affair
Race #5 – Seeuat Sticknstein, Purse Lava, Days of Lightening, Danceuponthestars
Race #6 – Unusual Smoke, My Boy Walsh, Runaway Bandito, North Fork
Race #7 – Swiss Wild Cat, Perfect Curls, Hi Ho Yodeler, Lucky Sis
Race #8 – Swiss Emperor, Three Pointer, Brutally Handsome, Kim’s Leading Man

This is a pretty good card, and a tough one. Hopefully Uncle Steve will chime in for a bit of balance. There are some opportunities here, and I hope to take advantage of them. I am not sure how I will bet these races as of this writing, but I will at least have some action plays.

Enjoy the day. If you watch or play, do so with love in your heart, and remember to make someone smile today. It matters, and it always comes back around ten-fold.
Late
VS
August 31, 2010
09:59 PM

Posted by PGM

Mike A.,

Arlington has its Labor Day turf festival scheduled as Gerry said, where a majority of the card goes on the sod. Here's some useful information:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=19555

The featured G3 Pucker Up is usually a fun race, and in recent years, has been a nice stepping stone to the G1 QEII at Keeneland.

Asidero,

Ben's Cat earned an 87 BSF, as per http://www1.drf.com/stakeresults/drfStakeResults.jsp.

J. Tully,

I would have liked a 4-day week (or a reduction of dates in the winter) if HAW kept all its October stakes intact. I would have liked for the purses to not got whacked. (And as someone without an ADW, I'm neutral on the caps.)

Instead, the long HAW meet will limp along from November to New Years'. Sigh.
August 31, 2010
09:17 PM

Posted by chicago gerry



Interesting that you mentioned avoiding looking at the Beyers.

On occasion, because I have the time early on, I have downloaded DRF PP's which doesn't have the M-L listed.

I am not one to formally make my own M-L, so it is interesting how the M-L influences how I go about doing what I do, in terms of the handicapping. IMO, it can be a revealing exercise, from time to time.

The M-L makers vary greatly in their ability from track to track, and meet to meet. A poor M-L is generally corrected the good handicappers with money out there, but at times, good opportunities arise due to the official M-L leading the majority down the wrong path.
August 31, 2010
09:14 PM

Posted by Mike A

Was looking over the turf races for tomorrow at Saratoga......Didn't look at them all, only three for now. Have no interest in the 1 3/16m marathon, looks cheap......Now the other 2 look interesting.



One thing I love about turf races is rules that usually apply to dirt do not apply to turf. Oh say.....things like 25,000 NW2L as a rule don't beat NW1X allow horses, horses who win 5 1/2f sprints will usually not win on the stretchout, a sprinters a sprinter a routers a router, a horses running times on turf are directly related to his ability to handle a class rise. Horses who lose out of town don't win here.......or run well, I think Mr. Hooker proves that wrong. There are more, but back to the races.


In the 5th a Mdn Clmer for 25,000 There are two horses who look like they should be 1-2, the 3-Naughty You, trained by P.Serpe and the 5 Peat Bay, trained by S. Benzel. Both top notch trainers, however there is another horse in there I like even more. Ghosts and Legends showed little on the main track, disappointing after the owners shelled out 300,000 for him. There was no "lets try again" he was entered on the main for 50,000, once again nothing. The horse was switched to the turf, a surface he's bred to run well on an entered in a 5 1/2f sprint for 25,000. His running lines are what I like to see, especially by a horse whose bred to run a long way. He basically ran an even race, 7 lengths behind the leader start to finish. Doesn't seem like much, but considering his first two races the surface switch was a big improvement. I look for him to be much closer to the pace tomorrow......As I said The 3 and the 5 look good, but not unbeatable. Trained by R. Dutrow and ridden by G. Gomez for the first time I like this one 1-2 at 20-1.



The feature, an overnight stakes for 2 yr. old fillies at 1 1/6m on the turf is the other race I like. Lots of angles in this one. Well bred horses, good stables, the leading owners at the meet," repole" claiming a horse for 75,000 and entering her here. K. McPeek with a shipper from Ellis park.....Fast spinters stretching out, fast sprinters who already won on the stretchout........lots of good stuff......so I'm going for an angle that no one would use on the dirt, or turf for that matter, but of course I would.


The overnight is named the P.G.Johnson......fitting, I had Valponi the year he won the classic. So it's fitting still I like a horse who is still a maiden and is 12-1 ML. The horses name is Fancy Point, trained by Bill Phipps, yes William Phipps, the same W . Phipps who is 0-17 at Saratoga and 5-53 overall. This horse was bred and runs for Kinsman Stable. In her initial race, a sprint on the dirt I happened to look at the PP's before the race. When I got to Fancy Point a few things immediately struck me. First I said "why is this horse running on dirt", sired by point Given could be a reason they tried her, but her momma is Fancy Clancy a turf producing demon. By Rahy, Fancy Clancy had won on turf and thrown 3 previous winners on the surface. I was interested in how she ran, the field of maidens she was facing seemed, on paper at least, to be a very good one. She ran well, under a snug hold and behind horses, she made a nice move into contention, was blocked, finally found room, got within a 1/2 length of the lead before evening out, finishing fourth. The second place finisher in that race Promised the Cat, I believe was everyones tip Saturday at the Spa in the second race, well that is except for me, I had the winner Alexandra Rylee. After that race and looking back at the others who ran that day I decided it was a good group of fillies Fancy Point lost to. As I say "evaluation", anyway the horse is bred for turf, by a good turf producer and an excellent sire, also bred to run long. Trainer Phipps may be 5-53 and 0-17, but his numbers Mdn 2nd St 36%, Sprint to route 30% 1st turf 16%, speak for themselves. This homebred looks as if she's being placed over he head......I don't thisk so, no one in here looks like a world beater......./when a 75,000 claim is one of the picks that should tell us something. Mike A

August 31, 2010
08:47 PM

Posted by Jeffrey

Greetings Dan,

I wanted to compliment you on (and Mike Beer) on your entertaining and informative video analysis of each week's Grade 1 races. Unfortunately, I didn't take your advice on Richard's Kid. However, a couple weeks ago I handicapped the Arlington Million and thankfully listened to your presentation. My own perceptions mirrored what you and Mike had to say about Gio Ponti and the Euro runners (except that I picked Debussy to win). For a mere $12, I hit the superfecta for well over $1,100. That's the best score I've ever had on an exotic. Anyway, I especially appreciate the way you inject some life and humor into your presentation, especially the creative intros! Keep up the good work.

Like some other posters, I'm skeptical of Beyers for synthetic races. There are too many contradictory and counter-intuitive results compared to dirt runners. For example, Zenyatta had a 99 and 97 Beyer going into the Classic, yet she somehow pulled a 112 out of thin air and ran 10 furlongs in 2:00:62. Also, Zenyatta has the track record for Del Mar's polytrack at 8.5 F (her final time of 1:41:48 is the best in four seasons) and received a questionable BSF of 108. Even on turf I've been a bit taken aback. Sidney's Candy (who happens to have the 5.5F synthetic record at Del Mar) recently broke another record (as well as poor Macias), this time on turf, and received a 102 BSF. I sometimes wonder if there is a negative perception of CA and synthetic runners, which is reflected in lackluster BSF's compared to their Eastern rivals. I'm from the Midwest and don't care too much about the East/West rivalry, but just care about a product that has validity and reliability. Perhaps DRF can create an additional product that avoids subjective determinations, but simply combines information such as final time, weight carried, ground lost, etc. There is too much area for personal bias when deciding what constitutes the inherent speed of the track in relationship to the final time, especially when people use BSF's to determine Eclipse awards. Just my two cents.

BTW, I'm wondering if you have PP histories for two somewhat obscure handicap runners from the 80's and 90's. If possible I'd like pp's for Beau Genius and Precocity (II).

Thank you,

Jeffrey
August 31, 2010
08:40 PM

Posted by chicago gerry


Alan,

Am not sure officially if you won the Travers HG but that was one great Exacta you came up with, and congrats to all those that selected Afleet Express including 10 Cent. Good handicapping.


Mike A.,

Don't know if you ever give AP a look, but it is my understanding, all of the Labor Day races will be run over the turf course.

Thanks,

August 31, 2010
08:01 PM

Posted by Alan

"Just when I thought I was out... they pull me back in."

The following is just my theory on low synthetic stakes race winning Beyers. The problem was finally acknowledged by Andy and partially corrected, but the fundamental issue (the narrowness of the Beyer Table for synthetic races) still remains.

There is no bias in the SoCal Beyers - or at least, there is another explanation. The "too low" stakes race Beyer is a function of the finishing times of most synthetic races. The final time difference between races of high and low quality and between the best and worst finishers in races are in general narrower in synthetic races. Since Beyer differences are based on time differences, the Beyer Tables need to be made wider for synthetic races. Otherwise, Beyers for good horse performance are too low while Beyers for bad horse performance are too high. Just look at the Beyer differences in the Travers vs. Pacific Classic:

Travers:
1. Afleet Express 105
2. Fly Down 105
3. First Dude 95
4. Afleet Again 93
5. A Little Warm 92
6. Friend Or Foe 90
7. Miner's Reserve 90
8. Ice Box 89
9. Trappe Shot 71
10. Super Saver 69
11. Admiral Alex 59
(average Beyer =87.1)
(Beyer range: 59 to 105 = 46 points)

Pacific Classic:
1. Richard's Kid 95
2. Crowded House 94
3. Dakota Phone 93
4. Battle of Hastings 92
5. The Usual Q.T. 91
6. Temple City 90
7. Isle of Giant's 87
8. Hold Me Back 87
9. Unusual Suspect 86
10. Awesome Gem 86
(average Beyer = 90.1)
(Beyer range: 86 to 95 = 9 points)

If you kept the same average Beyer for the Pacific Classic but expanded the Beyer range from top to bottom by 10 points, or even 20 points...Richard's Kid's Beyer goes up while Awesome Gem's Beyer goes down.

For those more interested in the topic, this was a study I did over a year ago looking at the difference in Beyer ranges in Dirt vs Synthetic stakes races:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AujlQp0K9GEvcDBwdW5Ea3FtVEw0X3RaWTU3UFdTUXc&hl=en&output=html

OK...I'm done again for at least 6 months!
August 31, 2010
07:41 PM

Posted by Laura

Kantharos retired. That just ruined my whole day and I don't even own him. SIGH.

I've been keeping an eye on some nice maidens. A full brother to Pleasant Strike (Ar. Million winner) won over the dirt - named Curlinello. Looks a little like Curlin too. Excited is one to get, well, excited about. Very professional winner, out of a full sister to Spain. A daughter of Summer Colony was an easy winner too. All of these were winners over the last few weeks at the Spahhhh. If you'd like to read more about them, I keep a weekly watch list of 2 YO at the Iron Maidens BLOG. (yep, just what I need, another website to keep me busy, lol). http://ironmaidensthoroughbreds.blogspot.com/

Laura
CAPTCHA: Livermot Language...sounds nasty.
August 31, 2010
06:46 PM

Posted by Steve Taylor

Steve T-

New York is kind of a wierd situtation in that NYRA is kind of a governmnent agency (for lack of a better word) where in Illinois it would be more of a "win/win". The State would get about $100 million up front (that's licensing the machines-before so much as a penny is ever put into a machine) the purses would go up, field size (and hopefully quality) would improve which would lead to more money (as in out of state wagering as well as on track?) for the state and the business. My only concern is that I really hope that after we get slots, racing is still the main attraction at Arlington (and I admit that's a major concern)
August 31, 2010
06:20 PM

Posted by knm

Annie,

I'm thrilled to think that Twirling Candy is a star! I hope you will cheer him on, I will be having a cultural interlude on Saturday!

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