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Top Beyers, Questions, Moscow Burning Found!
Lots to cover today.
Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races:
1. Inherit the Gold - 104 - Excelsior Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Aqueduct
2. Amazombie - 102 - Potrero Grande Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
2. Awesome Maria - 102 - Rampart Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
2. Capt. Candyman Can - 102 - Sir Shackleton Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
2. Christmas for Liam - 102 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
2. S. S. Stone - 102 - Skip Away Stakes (G3) - 1 3/16 Miles - Gulfstream
7. Comedero - 100 - Nodouble Breeders' Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
7. Little Mike - 100 - Appleton Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
7. R Heat Lightning - 100 - Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
7. Travelin Man - 100 - Swale Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
11. Bella Moneta - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 5 Furlongs - Gulfstream
12. Be Bullish - 96- Mr. Nasty Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
13. Ain't No Other - 95 - Alw 38038N1X - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
14. Hudson Steele - 94 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
14. Writingonthewall - 94 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
16. Dialed In - 93 - Florida Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
16. Sarah's Song - 93 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Oaklawn
18. Hattaash - 93 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Hawthorne
18. Jr's Exchange - 93 - Hcp 30000 - 5 Furlongs - Tampa Bay
18. River Bear - 92 - OC 50k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
18. Tapitsfly - 92 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. Legal Separation - 91 - Alw 56000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
22. Lots of Stones - 91 - Ruby Rubles Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
22. Right One (FR) - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. Simmard - 91 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
Past performances for INHERIT THE GOLD are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Moscow Burning was sold to the Japanese at a sale at Keeneland in 2006. I'm pretty sure the farm that bought her is the one who owns Deep Impact. I have been trying for over four years to find out anything about her. Did she have and foals that made it to the track? Is she still being bred?
I have email the Japan Racing Ass., and all the newspapers in Japan that cover racing. No one has responded. Could you please try to find out anything you can. Thanks
Here is Moscow Burning's production record in Japan, according to the Japan Stud Book:
2008: Slipped foal (by Agnes Tachyon)
2009: Burning Zeal (colt, by Heart's Cry) - Unraced
2010: Filly (by Heart's Cry)
Dan, I was curious how some derby horses in recent times best bsf as a 2 yr. old compared to their derby races? Have we allready seen the best of uncle mo and thas, among others?
Here are some recent Kentucky Derby winners listed with their best juvenile Beyers:
2010 - Super Saver (93 Beyer top at two, 104 Kentucky Derby)
2009 - Mine That Bird (79, 105)
2008 - Big Brown (90, 109)
2007 - Street Sense (108, 110)
2006 - Barbaro (102, 111)
2005 - Giacomo (94, 100)
2004 - Smarty Jones (105, 107)
2003 - Funny Cide (103, 109)
2002 - War Emblem (83, 114)
2001 - Monarchos (69, 116)
2000 - Fusaichi Pegasus (95, 108)
1999 - Charismatic (85, 108)
1998 - Real Quiet (102, 107)
1997 - Silver Charm (97, 115)
1996 - Grindstone (90, 112)
1995 - Thunder Gulch (99, 108)
1994 - Go for Gin (95, 112)
1993 - Sea Hero (99, 105)
Wondering if anyone here has or can compile the finishing positions for Derby starters based on their position on the graded stakes money list going in to the Derby? Top 5 finishing positions would be fine. Thanks for any info on how to get these figures.
Here are the top five finishers from the last five Kentucky Derbies (position on graded entry list afterwards)
Super Saver - 11th
Ice Box - 6th
Paddy O'Prado - 16th
Make Music for Me - 20th
Noble's Promise - 2nd
Mine That Bird - 13th
Pioneerof the Nile - 2nd
Musket Man - 7th
Papa Clem - 3rd
Chocolate Candy - 10th
Big Brown - 5th
Eight Belles - 13th
Denis of Cork - 18th
Tale of Ekati - 4th
Recapturetheglory - 10th
Street Sense - 1st
Hard Spun - 11th
Curlin - 4th
Imawildandcrazyguy - 19th
Sedgefield - 16th
Barbaro - 3rd
Bluegrass Cat - 10th
Steppenwolfer - 11th
Brother Derek - 1st (dead-heat for fourth)
Jazil - 15th (dead-heat for fourth)
I read where Ramon Dominguez was given a two day suspension for careless riding by the Meydan stewards for an incident during the Dubai World Cup. He will serve on April 6 and 7th.
So, is this suspension only in Dubai or does it apply world wide? Seems kind of lame to me if it is only local. What is the point if he rarely rides there?
On the other hand, are sanctions cumulative in any location? If they are, then it makes sense, in the event there are more infractions upon a jockey's return to the "scene of the crime".
The suspension was upheld worldwide and Dominguez will take his days today (Wednesday, April 6) and tomorrow.
Dan - do you know what happened to Take Control - Azeri's first foal - He won his first start over a year ago. I heard he had a few 'issues' and would be back last fall but he seems to have disappeared.
I realize Bob Baffert is busy , but in the interest of the sport and courtesy to the
fans it would be nice to hear a statement about some of the horses who have
been off the track. One in particular who had quite a few followers is "Take Control".
Heard about the shins , but it's been a while now . I do realize the connections
don't have to keep up posted , but they should appreciate the fan base which these
days they desparately need.
Take Control, a four-year-old son of A.P. Indy out of the great Azeri, won his lone start to date, a maiden special weight at Santa Anita going a mile over the Pro-Ride on December 30, 2009. He had sore shins after that race and missed significant time. His most recent work was over the Hollywood cushion track on November 10, 2010. He worked five furlongs out of the gate in 59.60, but has since gone on the shelf. I haven't heard anything definitive about his condition (although I may have read somewhere that he had a recurring problem with his shins), but will let you know if I find anything out.
I hope you had a profitable weekend, I have a few questions if you have time:
1.What is your impression of the Florida Derby, I have read that Dialed In's performance was great considering the speed favoring track and I have read that of course he was able to close considering the time of the final 1/4 what do you think?
2.What do you think of Silver Medallion and Anthony's Cross and their chances in the Derby going from a super fast and light track out west to a heavier and higher percentage of clay track at Churchill?
3. Is dosage and cd only pertinent in races at a mile and 1/4 and up, can it help in analyzing speed horses at shorter distances, do you use it in analyzing maiden races?
4. I know you are very busy, how is the D/L list coming along? It has been helpful to me, most especially the horses who have undergone surgery for a entrapped epiglottis.
Thanks as always,
1. Dialed In ran well, but you have to consider that he had a great setup rallying into a hot and contested pace. While he seems to be learning and improving with each and every start, he needed every bit of that stretch to run down a 70-1 shot, and I didn't love the way he looked galloping out. The number came back slow despite the fast pace. I'm probably the wrong guy to ask about Dialed In, however, as I'm usually biased against one-run closers, especially in races like the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. Overall, I wasn't blown away by the performance and I'll probably try to find someone else to beat him at Churchill Downs. Then again, I am befuddled by the Derby at one minute to post, let alone a month out.
2. Ask me after Saturday's Santa Anita Derby. I want to get another look at both horses.
3. I don't really look at dosage, but I assume followers use the numbers to look at other races with the belief that the higher the dosage, the shorter the distance a runner wants to go.
4. I'm sorry that the DL is taking longer than anticipated. It's just that I'm swamped and behind, and I don't want to post an incomplete listing. As always, you can ask me about a horse, and I'll do the best I can to find out information. I'm trying. I really am.
*Dan or whomever
any news on Buffum?
*Dan would like the pps for a horse that ran in the 80s Proud Truth. went to Del Mar one year and gave a guy change for the phone while waiting for the track to open the gates so we could get in and this guy approached me later on and give me a tip on a FTS named Proud Truth he said he would win the race. He went off at 8-1 and I put a win bet on him he broke on top and was ahead by several lenghts at the top of the lane and went extremely wide entering the stretch needless to say he lost the race. I would like to reminess a little Dan.
Buffum was still in Dubai as of March 23 as he worked at Al Quoz that morning. He is now in the United States, and is scheduled to run in the Bay Shore at Aqueduct on Saturday.
Proud Truth's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post. I don't think he's the horse you're thinking about.
After the race, I wrote a note on the form that good jockeys just don't ride horses for off the wall trainers (Justin Nixon, 0/1 on the year). I'm assuming he is an assistant trainer that has worked for or is still working for a good trainer.
Any suggestions? Thanks
Justin Nixon has won with at least 20% of his starters in every season since 2002:
2002: 16-59 (27%, $3.82 ROI)
2003: 13-61 (21%, $2.40 ROI)
2004: 43-158 (27%, $1.79 ROI)
2005: 35-109 (32%, $2.17 ROI)
2006: 29-107 (27%, $2.17 ROI)
2007: 32-125 (25%, $1.71 ROI)
2008: 32-137 (23%, $1.90 ROI)
2009: 20-73 (27%, $2.09 ROI)
2010: 21-102 (20%, $1.42 ROI)
Fourteen of Nixon's 21 wins last year came in Canada so he may not heat up until his horses start racing at Woodbine.
can you tell me where on the DRF site i can find where all the contests are listed for the DRF handicapping tournaments? they still have the results posted from januarys big finale and no listings of this years dates and locations?
thanks for the help.
bob m toga
Please head to the below link for more information on the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship:
Dan can u post pp's for cool edge
What I have for the American-bred Cool Edge is at the bottom of this blog post. I'm not sure this is the one you're looking for.
Can you post the past performances for:
Strike The Gold
I enjoy all the information on your blog
Lucky Debonair is a little too old for my past performance enerator. The pp's for Strike the Gold and Arcangues are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Dan, in conjunction with Don's question, I would like to know your thoughts about speed in general Sunday. I think the track played a little fast, meaning the finishing times were a bit quicker than "average." However, many handicappers and commentators - including Zito's referring to winning on a 'speed-favoring' track - have the perception of a speed bias.
I can understand why some analysts are claiming that Sunday's main track at Gulfstream was speed-favoring. There were some good-priced winners on the lead and people are still trying to figure out how Shackleford (the pacesetter in the Florida Derby) ran so well. The obvious conclusion, for many, is that there was a speed bias. I disagree. The track may have been fast, but I've seen Gulfstream play stronger to speed on several other occasions this meet. Let's take nothing away from Dialed In, but I'm not going to say his run was more impressive because there was a bias.
But again, can someone please tell me the last horse who won the Ky. Derby after finishing worse than 4th in his last race? Even Giacomo was 3rd or 4th in the SA Derby, wasn't he?
Iron Liege ran fifth in the 1957 Derby Trial. He was the last Kentucky Derby winner that failed to complete the superfecta in the final prep run. Prior to that, it was Count Turf (1951, 5th Wood Memorial). They are the only two since 1940.
It seems Jesse Campbell has moved his tack to WO. Would you people give me a rundown on what you think of his riding skills - what he's best at, sprints, routes, turf, poly? I'd really appreciate it.
Here are some of Campbell's statistics:
2011: 5-48 (10%, $1.36 ROI)
2010: 22-162 (13%, $1.45)
2009: 18-215 (8%, $1.17)
2008: 28-232 (12%, $1.37)
2007: 11-176 (6%, $0.70)
2011: 1-4 (25%, $0.98 ROI)
2010: 1-8 (13%, $1.00)
2009: 43-309 (13%, $2.03)
2008: 55-357 (15%, $1.79)
2007: 45-346 (13%, $1.80)
2011: 11-88 (12%, $1.50 ROI)
2010: 45-291 (15%, $1.33)
2009: 52-400 (13%, $1.47)
2008: 68-478 (14%, $1.79)
2007: 54-393 (13%, $1.87)
2011: 9-84 (10%, $1.41 ROI)
2010: 37-193 (19%, $1.46)
2009: 41-369 (11%, $1.65)
2008: 56-430 (13%, $1.42)
2007: 36-400 (9%, $0.99)
Where did you find the list of named foals by first crop sires? I know where to find some lists, but I gotta pay for them.
I got them from the Jockey Club website at equineline.com. Unfortunately, it is a pay site.
I hate chalk but in this race what can you do
$ 50 exacta box 5/6 the 5 is chad brown and j.j.castellano on turf with the best pace
the 6 is only multiple winner on turf, winner at this level , has been rested and given a bullet work for this race.
Congrats to don for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. He selects the ninth race at Gulfstream on Friday for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all!
Now, on to Keeneland Babies (sigh)
|Inherit the Gold.pdf||58.5 KB|
|Proud Truth.pdf||39.03 KB|
|Cool Edge.pdf||36.93 KB|
Quick Picks for the 1st at Keeneland: Two entrants were scratched, Soul Vacation, who was part of the entry, and Gentlemen’s Code one of my interesting longshots. EVERYDAY DAVE (Weather Warning – Numerieus, by Numerous), trained by the master of two year olds, Wesley Ward is the even money favorite. Everyday Dave is by a minor son of Storm Cat out of a French juvenile stakes winner. He is the first foal from his dam and the distaff family is unremarkable and European. Nothing in his pedigree catches our eye, but his consistently faster works do, and his moring breezes indicate that he’s ready to roll. It’s hard to argue against a trainer with 69% lifetime wins with debuting maidens, but there’s another prospect in here that caught our eye. GIMMEAWISH (Gimmeawink – Wish For Candi, by Candi’s Gold) is worth serious consideration. His sire gets about 25% winners over Polytrack and 15% juvenile winners, which is above average. Gimmeawish has a precocious distaff family His dam won two listed stakes at Hastings as a juvenile and she has a pretty good record as a broodmare. All seven of her foals raced, four are winners, and one is a stakes winner. Three won at two, including Gimmeawish’s full sister Michaela's Candi and Pete’s Wonder, who placed in the Victoria Stakes at Woodbine in his second start. Gimmeawish has inbreeding to Gold Digger, through her sons Mr. Prospector, the third sire of Gimmeawink, and his unraced half brother Yukon, the sire of Candi’s Gold. The trainer, John Pucek, has a 32% lifetime record with maidens. Gimmeawish has flashed some speed in the mornings and his 10-1 odds are enticing. CURFEW TOWER (City Zip – Lights Out, by Way Of Light) is by a superior sire of two year olds and Polytrack runners out of a dam by a Champion French Juvenile. His dam failed to win as a juvenile and his half sister by Suave hasn’t won in six attempts. There are still a few things to like about this colt. He’s shown some speed in the mornings at Keeneland and his trainer Eric Reed has a 38% lifetime win rate with two year olds. CONCEPT (Montbrook – Quincy Market, by Boston Harbor) is the token filly in the race. Her sire and damsire get win-early sprinters and 25% of her sire’s offspring hit the board over Polytrack. Her dam took 10 starts to win her maiden and neither of Concept’s siblings are winners. HACHI (Cuvee – What’d I Say, by Shuailaan) has sprinter speed over stamina. His dam didn’t win a race until she was four and she’s a half sister to two stakes winners. The distaff family isn’t particularly precocious and Hachi is her first foal. Cuvee gets 16% lifetime juvenile winners, but only around 14% Polytrack winners. The Corrigan barn is 26% lifetime with maidens. ADENA'S CHANCE (Limehouse - Little Krissy, by Kris S.) only recorded two public works at Keeneland, including a decent gate work, so this colt is likely working at a private farm. At least we hope so. His sire gets an above-average 16% juvie winners and Kris S. is no slouch as a broodmare sire. Adena's Chance’s dam won one of two starts as a three year old, and we’re suspecting she had soundness issues. He’s her fourth foal, and only one half sibling is a winner. That one took his sweet time winning his maiden and only won twice in 18 attempts. Selections: #7 GIMMEAWISH #1 EVERYDAY DAVE #3 CURFEW TOWER #5 HACHI
This looks like a four horse race today. So when it's a four horse race play those four horses. #6 will probably toy with this bunch, but I cant make any money that way. $16 Superfecta 9 / 4-5-6 / 4-5-6 /4-5-6 $4 SF 6/9/4/5
For the HG race: $50 Win on #2 Pretend and Extend - Paco lopez should fit this colt like a glove, should be prominent from the gitgo. Has been taking money in all his starts. $50 Exacta Box 2-4 Good Luck
HG228 Turning to A. Penna's ALISAL # 6 hoping the grass-master has found his spot with the drop into Md35 , like Romans has done with the #1 Fela Kuti that seems to be better on the weeds. Using Oh Oh Bama to complete the trifectas. $10 Trifetas : 6-1-4 , 6-4-1 $40 Exacta box : 6/1 Total : $100
HG228 - Gulf Mdn Turf #6 Alisal stands out on figures. The drop and cutback should do the trick. The pick. #1 Fela Kuti has a nice turf pedigree and his 2 turf tries are better than the beyers make them look. #9 Top Surprize is another with a decent turf pedigree. With a good start he might be able to contend. So the wager will be: $50 exacta 6,1 $50 exacta 6,9 Good luck to all !!! Dick W
HG Not clear enough to bet with my own dough, but I am profligate with Dan's. #4 OhOhBama - Might have an excuse for poor showing last out. Other signs good. #5 - Scappare - good signs plus rising Beyer, but two bad finishes #6 Alisal - Best speed, might be game despite two bad finishes #8- Jetties Beach - Bocachica has booted home longshots at GP this winter #9 Top Surprize - Exits much tougher, seems to have still been working late HG WAGER $80 to WIN #4 $10 to WIN #8 $10 to Win #9 Good luck to all!
H.G.228 $60.00 Excacta 6/4 $20.00 Trifecta 6/4/1 .25 cent Superfecta 6,4,1/6,4,1/6,4,1,5,9/2,9,5,4,8
Oh mis-spoke> lest I get hung.....LOL..didn't dot the "I" properly.. The Factor>then would be 4-1 w/ a total 5 races...stiil the point is the same......
Alan, Loved the link on the Russian trainer. The part that he had no idea of whether or not his son actually murdered anyone, but he was just trying to help him was priceless. In the continuing saga of why don't family members care what day it is? On Derby Day, I will be forced to attend a noon First Holy Communion (not that I decry it's importance, it's just that I already had to do this on the first Saturday in May for my own son and a variety of nieces and nephews) , followed at 2 by a combined event after party to celebrate communion and Mother's Day. So much for post parade analysis and undercard wagering! I'm going to be lucky to make it home for the gate load. I'm beginning to wonder if the Catholic hierarchy hates the Derby...............
HG 228: Lots of dogs in here to eliminate from top spot: 1-Fela Kuti has a 5% rider. 3-Deputy Duke has horrible connections and has finished ahead of 5 of the 43 horses he has faced. 7-Roars More is ditto above, but has never raced. May never finish if he does. 8-Jetties Beach has an 0 for 12 trainer. 9-Top Surprise is trained by the, ice cold, Billy Mott. I saved a ton of cash on To Honor and Serve when I saw Mott’s recent win % (now under 10%). 10-Hugo Light is the trifecta of dismal with low % rider and trainer to go with an 0 for 11 record. 11-Timothy Ten Four is destined to die a maiden if he remains with current connections. Contenders: 2-Pretend and Extend drops from Md Sp Wt, gets a + rider change off excuse in last. 4-Oh Oh Bama has good connections, and did not miss by much in his last after bump at start. 5-Scappare is not a toss, but will have to improve. 6-Alisal looks like the betting favorite based on top Beyers and crafty trainer. 12-Herecomeseveryman is a Linda Rice trainee with an excuse and, unfortunately, a bad post position. I like Violette’s ROI numbers and 8-1 on the 2 horse. $50/1 on #2 $25 Exacta Box 2-6