03/29/2011 7:03PM

Top Beyers, Derby Tomlinsons, Stallion Progeny

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Let's get back to work.

***

Here are the top 25 winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (3/21/11 - 3/27/11):

1.  Eighttofasttocatch - 103 - Harrison E. Johnson Memorial Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Laurel
2.  Mission Impazible - 102 - New Orleans Handicap (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Fair Grounds
2.  Scofield Barracks - 102 -  Alw 40600N1X - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
2.  Upperline - 102 - Bayou Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
5.  Plum Pretty - 99 - Sunland Park Oaks - 1 1/16 Miles - Sunland
5.  Twelve Twenty Two - 99 - Harry Henson Handicap - 1 Mile - Sunland
7.  Rahy's Attorney - 98 - Pan American Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
8.  Leaving New York - 97 - Alw 68016N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
8.  Worth Repeating - 97 - Tokyo City Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles - Santa Anita
10.  Mambo Galliano - 96 - Duncan F. Kenner Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
10.  All Due Respect - 96 - Ocala Stakes - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
12.  Burj Dubai - 95 - Clm c-(50-40) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
12.  Camp Victory - 95 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
12.  Deacon Speakin' - 95 - Portland Meadows Mile Handicap - 1 Mile - Portland Meadows
15.  Ask Joe - 94 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
15.  Edgewater - 94 - Alw 35000NC - 1 1/8 Miles - Charles Town
15.  Pants On Fire - 94 - Louisiana Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Fair Grounds
15.  R Betty Graybull - 94 - Ladies Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
15.  Smart Bid - 94 - Mervin H. Muniz Jr. Memorial Handicap (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Fair Grounds
15.  Where's Sterling - 94 - Alw 44600N1X - 1 1/8 Miles - Gulfstream
21.  After Shock - 93 - OC 16k/N1X-N -  1 Mile - Oaklawn
21.  Mensa Heat - 93 - Clm 20000(20-18) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Santa Anita
21.  She'smylittleman - 93 - OC 25k/N1Y - 6 Furlongs - Sunland
21.  Position A - 93 - Clm c-(32-28) - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
25.  Animal Kingdom - 92 - Spiral Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack) - Turfway
25.  Auspicious Risk - 92 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
25.  El Kingdom - 92 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
25.  Knockout Artist - 92 - OC 50k/N2X - 1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
25.  Star Guitar - 92 - Costa Rising Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds

The past performances for EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH  are available at the bottom of the blog post.

***

Now I can join Curt V in thanking Calvin Carter and Mike A (and Steve T?) for highlighting the sire Leroidesanimaux. Does anyone (Dan?) have a full foal list? The one at the Racing Post is incomplete.
Jonah

Here's what I have for Leroidesanimaux (living, named Northern Hemisphere foals only):

2007 foals:

Actinsingle (2-0-1-0, $2,400)
Always a Princess (10-5-1-1, $516,048, multiple Grade 2 winner)
Annamanamoux (Unraced, sent to Ireland)
Ard Righ (9-1-1-1, $6,215)
Beau Maverick (14-0-4-0, $9,788)
Brasilier (4-0-0-1, $3,845)
Brazilian Charm (3-1-0-1, $30,720)
Considerate (12-1-3-4, $70,204)
Courtnmollyanne (14-0-3-5, $23,765)
Dancho (5-0-0-0, $0, raced in Korea)
Early Days (12-2-0-0, $239,975, raced in Japan)
Elegant Beauty (12-3-0-1, $15,171)
Fortunia (11-2-2-1, $76,949, Grade 3-placed on turf)
Gifted Apakay (13-2-2-3, $13,046)
Hasten to Be King (6-1-0-0, $10,762)
Jaloux (Unraced)
Jasmin Noir (57-6-8-8, $60,705, raced in Italy)
Joan's Bad Girl (Unraced)
King of Shwan (Unraced)
La Reine Lionne (6-3-0-0, $32,442)
Lareinedelabourse (Unraced, sent to Korea)
Lareinedesanimaux (Unraced)
Le Mieux (8-1-0-0, $20,547)
Leroi's Warning (9-2-0-1, $15,291)
Leroidugazon (2-0-0-2, $9,660)
Leroy's Dynameaux (7-2-2-2, $125,710, Grade 3 winner on turf)
Leroy's Pride (12-2-0-4, $25,523)
Leroys an Animal (Unraced)
Lewahdizaniwho (6-0-0-2, $15,922)
Lion Prince (Unraced)
Lorenza (Unraced, sent to Peru)
Madawaska (Unraced, sent to Ireland)
Mahindar (13-7-1-1, $136,675)
Marfach (10-1-3-1, $460,211, Group 3-placed on turf in Ireland)
Maux Money (15-0-1-1, $15,806)
My Cherimaux (Unraced)
Noble Cherie (Unraced, sent to Sweden)
O Rei Sou Eu (6-0-1-0, $3,140)
One French Kiss (13-1-1-0, $27,640)
Pendenciero (3-1-1-0, ???, raced in Spain)
Radiant Man (13-1-0-2, $20,500)
Radiant Sky (12-1-4-1, $49,578)
Rajadesaminaux (2-0-1-0, $9,400)
Reine de Bonbon (5-0-0-1, $1,790)
Revancha Del Tango (Unraced, sent to Ireland)
Riche d'Espoir (5-0-1-0, $6,180 in Frnace)
Ritmo Latino (2-0-0-0, $1,385)
Sai Tirando (Unraced, sent to Argentina)
Shaggy Chic (7-2-2-1, $63,400)
Shanta (8-1-2-3, $38,352)
Shine Star (Unraced, sent to Russia)
Simply Fast (Unraced, sent to Argentina)
Sing to the King (Unraced)
Solid as a Rock (Unraced, sent to Ireland)
Starred (4-1-2-0, $21,674)
Stepfather (11-0-0-1, $4,041)
Strong Willed Lady (8-2-1-0, $25,301)
Surf King (Unraced)
Swing Pattern (5-0-3-1, $7,703, raced in Ireland)
Valsa (2-1-0-1, $16,760, deceased)
Vee (10-1-2-2, $42,638)
Wombat (Unraced)

2008 foals:

A Little Grace (Unraced)
Ange Grise (1-0-1-0, $5,600)
Animal Kingdom (4-2-2-0, $326,900, Grade 3 winner)
Anna's Love Bug (Unraced)
Aquitania (Unraced)
Astro Ruler (Unraced)
B. J.'s Leroi (2-0-1-1, $11,435)
Badleroibrown (1-0-1-0, $9,600)
Batterynotcharging (Unraced)
Becky B (1-1-0-0, $12,600)
Blushing Miss (Unraced)
Blushing Noodle (Unraced)
Brazilian Rocket (Unraced)
Coastal Queen (Unraced)
Crimson Knight (6-2-1-1, $91,206, Grade 2-placed)
Desani's Chance (1-0-0-0, $254)
Destiny Rose (Unraced)
Donatella (5-1-0-2, $1,818, raced in Mexico)
Flying (Unraced)
Forever Ismay (Unraced)
Gilmer (3-0-0-0, $528)
Glor Na Mara (6-0-3-1, $150,999, multiple Group 1-placed on turf in Europe)
Great Warrior (BRZ) (1-0-1-0, $11,200)
Guanabara Gal (1-0-0-0, $344)
Hankering (4-0-0-1, $1,244)
Hunter Kane (2-0-0-0, $110)
Iam a Billionaire (Unraced)
Istropolitan (Unraced)
King Leroy (Unraced)
King of Stripes (1-0-0-0, $0)
L'Animaux (4-1-0-1, $7,160)
La Reine de Mots (4-0-2-1, $20,092)
Le Revolution (Unraced)
Lemou (2-0-1-0, $11,200)
Leroidessioux (Unraced)
Leroy Trampoli (2-0-0-0, $168)
Leroy's Saltine (Unraced)
Linda's Candy (4-0-0-0, $520)
Long Shot Luke (3-0-0-0, $325)
Made for a Mission (10-0-0-0, $2,793)
Mostly Love (1-0-0-0, $100)
Ms Silver Oak (4-1-3-0, $48,800)
Nishava (Unraced)
Odeeodee (Unraced)
Princess Mara (Unraced)
Queenside (4-1-1-0, ???, raced in Spain)
Rapajam (Unraced)
Redman's Hatch (3-0-1-1, $8,100)
Rich Jewel (8-2-0-1, $27,988)
Run Dora Run (Unraced)
Sarah's Secret (2-2-0-0, $54,000)
Smokin' Leroy (Unraced)
Swirls (Unraced)
Temple's Door (Unraced)
The Calypso Myth (Unraced)
Toni's the Won (4-1-0-2, $12,180)
You Know U Lied (Unraced)
Yuki (4-1-1-0, $14,282)

2009 foals:

Anjulie (Unraced)
Aprils May Jumper (Unraced)
Berrymeaux (Unraced)
Candymaid (Unraced)
Captivator (Unraced)
Come Acorkin (Unraced)
Crackerjakanimaux (Unraced)
Demonsterous (Unraced)
Destiny's Ahead (Unraced)
Happy Hour Honey (Unraced)
Karen's Cuisine (Unraced)
Lady of Birds (Unraced)
Leroi's Royal Lass (Unraced)
Leroy Herman (Unraced)
Leroy Jr. (Unraced)
Lord Tarzan (Unraced)
Mega Senna (Unraced)
My Libertine (Unraced)
Pretty Penelope (Unraced)
Prince Cheval (Unraced)
Qualionne (Unraced)
Queen's Bet (Unraced)
She's Stella Marie (Unraced)
Smoldering Ruins (Unraced)
The Real McCoy (Unraced)
Veramente Bella (Unraced, sent to Brazil)

*Data taken from Jockey Club statistics*

***

...And where is Ice Box? Retired? Lost more than I should have on him, thinking he would run back to his Derby performance. Big closers on the dirt, in the main they are like Sybil, and tend to break you down...
chicago gerry

The original plan was for Ice Box, last year's Florida Derby winner, to run at the end of the Gulfstream meet, but his last workout was on February 27 at Palm Meadows (3F - 37.50 B). 

***

Does anyone on this blog know if playing the top Tomlinson number (for distance) to win shows a positive r.o.i. in the Kentucky Derby?
gerry v.

I ran the past performances since 1990, and here are top three Tomlinson Distance Runners from each year (I wonder if these are accurate as it's possible they've changed with time?)

1990 Derby: 

Land Rush (441) - 7th
Video Ranger (399) - 4th
Unbridled (387) - FIRST ($23.60)

1991 Derby:

Another Review (413) - 13th
Corporate Report (371) - 9th
Wilder Than Ever (367) - 15th

1992 Derby: 

Arazi (480) - 8th
Thyer (435) - 13th
Snappy Landing (414) - 17th

1993 Derby:

Rockamundo (439) - 17th
Ragtime Rebel (379) - 9th
Dixieland Heat (369) - 12th

1994 Derby: 

Valiant Nature (407) - 13th
Smilin Singin Sam (381) - 10th
Go for Gin (369) - FIRST ($20.20)

1995 Derby:

Mecke (379) - 5th
Serena's Song (363) - 16th
Eltish (361) - 6th

1996 Derby:

Zarb's Magic (388*) - 13th
Unbridled's Song (371) - 5th
Cavonnier (359) - 2nd

1997 Derby:

Shammy Davis (373) - 12th
Concerto (363) - 9th
Crimson Classic (348) - 11th

1998 Derby:

Parade Ground (356) - 6th
Old Trieste (353) - 10th
Basic Trainee (342) - 15th

1999 Derby:

General Challenge (381) - 11th
Adonis (374) - 17th
Excellent Meeting (367) - 5th

2000 Derby:

Aptitude (458) - 2nd
War Chant (404) - 9th
Wheelaway (368) - 5th

2001 Derby:

Startac (368) - 10th
Monarchos (360) - FIRST ($23.00)
A P Valentine (355) - 7th

2002 Derby: 

Castle Gandolfo (407) - 12th
Saarland (368) - 10th
Perfect Drift (350) - 3rd

2003 Derby:

Brancusi (384) - 16th
Empire Maker (349) - 2nd
Buddy Gil (342) - 6th

2004 Derby:

Action This Day (366) - 6th
Friends Lake (366) - 15th
Read the Footnotes (353) - 7th

2005 Derby:

High Limit (332) - 20th
Bellamy Road (331) - 7th
Flower Alley (331) - 9th

2006 Derby:

Lawyer Ron (373) - 12th
Deputy Glitters (368) - 8th
Cause to Believe (345) - 13th

2007 Derby:

Hard Spun (410) - 2nd
Any Given Saturday (368) - 8th
Tiago (353) - 7th

2008 Derby:

Z Humor (368) - 14th
Monba (357) - 20th
Adriano (348) - 19th

2009 Derby:

Regal Ransom (343) - 8th
Atomic Rain (319) - 16th
Pioneerof the Nile (314) - 3rd

2010 Derby:

Super Saver (362) - FIRST ($18.00)
Discreetly Mine (331) - 13th
Awesome Act (307) - 19th

***

Can you post the PP's of Arromanches? thanks
CINNABAR

The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.  If you recall, he had a heck of a winning streak.

***

Sway Away
Given that it has been reported that Sway Away supposedly knocked a tooth out in the gate incident right before the Rebel, are you willing to give him a "mulligan" for that performance or do you think it was a true reflection of his ability in routes?
I am willing to give him another chance - perhaps because I thought he would run significantly better and was my clear choice for second behind winner. It could be in part because I hate to be wrong, but I think I will give him a hard look at the next race he shows up in.
Molesap

I'm not sure I'm willing to give him a "mulligan," and I'm not sure it's a true reflection of his ability in route races.  It's too early to tell what kind of horse Sway Away will become.  I didn't really like his race in the Rebel so I won't be waiting to jump on him when he shows up next in the entries, but it's probably too early to completely write him off as a stakes-caliber horse going long.  I just think that his connections may be rushing to try and make the Kentucky Derby, and that the conservative route might be the best way to go with him.

***

I remember playing a Shoemaker trained horse , another ridden by Carlos Baltazar , the other skips my mind , but the last was a maiden race and I had singled a horse named Twilight Agenda in a 7 furlong race. He had the lead the entire stretch and was caught right at the wire by a mount ridden by Danny Sorenson , who I was unfamiliar with at that time. Could you please print the PPs of Twilight Agenda so I can relive that near score. I bet a $10 P-4 that had three singles and two in one race. The last winner and Twilight Agenda were close in odds and the P-4 paid over three thousand. Close but no cigar. With the PPs I can recall the winning horse that shattered my dream.
Thanks,
Charley

Twilight Agenda's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.  I needed him when he was second to Black Tie Affair in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

***

Does anyone have any news on his American foals?
vicstu

Here's a list of Hard Spun's named 2-year-olds (all unraced, Northern Hemisphere only):

Aasya (sent to United Arab Emirates)
Abhaath (sent to United Arab Emirates)
Afaal (sent to United Arab Emirates)
Afraah (sent to United Arab Emirates)
Almaas (sent to Great Britain)
Artest
Battle Hard
Beer Run
Boudicca
Cafalis
(sent to Peru)
Cerce Cay
Circus Mondao
Clear Danger

Common Bond
Cotton Trader
(sent to Great Britain)
Dance Over
Doin' Hard Time
Don't Spin Me
Doosey
Dynamical

Easter Gift
Easterette
Favorite Gal
Filare l'Oro
Flame Run
Free as a Bird
Glavar (sent to Russia)
Gleaning
Grain
Hand Spun

Hard Drive
Hard Facts
Hard Hat
Hard Mystery

Hard Not to Like
Hard Spun Bells
Hard Spun Secrets

Hard Weekend (sent to Peru)
Hardbody
Hardened Wildcat

Heaven's Song
Hierro
Honey Im Home

Hussar Ballad (sent to France)
Jack Seabrook
Love Spun
Mabroor
(sent to Great Britain)
Marco's Bon Vivant
May Island
Mollita (IRE)
Monahee
Muhdiq (sent to Great Britain)
Pacific Girl (sent to Brazil)
Qannaas (sent to United Arab Emirates)
Questing (GB)
Reload
Ribbon Taffy
Safely Spun
Seaside Magic
Singavictorysong
Slinger
Smart Spun
Soft Rock
Soohaad
(sent to Great Britain)
Spellwork (sent to France)
Spin Job
Spinning Jenny
Spiral Sea (IRE)
Spun Around
Spun Cap
Spun Clear
Spun Lake
Spun Ribbon
Spun Silky
Spun Yarn

Tabib (IRE)
Tasrih (sent to Great Britain)
Tightly Wound
Waafid
(sent to United Arab Emirates)
Wicked Hard
Willow Breeze (GB)
Windlesham
(sent to Great Britain)
Wish Keeper
Woven Lace (GB)
Yvete Sangalo (MEX)
Zo Impressive

***

Should Uncle Mo win at 1 1/4, he would be considered an aberration on Indian Charlie's statsheet. Actually, wouldn't he be Indian Charlie's first success beyond 9f?
C

Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie - Hustleeta, by Afleet) won the Personal Ensign at Saratoga and the Delaware Handicap at 1 1/4 miles.

***

Bind was beat in allowance race this weekend by a nice horse named prime cut. Do you know what prime cut's BSF for his winning performance was? He was 1/5 of second of the track record.
Josh

Prime Cut received a 91 Beyer Speed Figure for his win over Bind on Saturday at Fair Grounds.

***

Where did Mr. Gruff finish? I haven't been able to find full results anywhere
Annie

Mr. Gruff finished last of 16 in the Al Quoz Sprint.

***

Dan,
I hope you give Rewilding consideration as your Performance of the Week. Although it wasn't the strongest field, his 3+L win in the Sheema was very impressive. Are the Timeform or Racing Post ratings yet available for the various Dubai winners?
Alan

I picked a Dubai runner for the Performance of the Week, but it wasn't Rewilding.  You can watch the videos at this link:

http://www.drf.com/news/weekend-stakes-preview-videos

Here are the Racing Post Ratings for the Dubai winners:

Al Quoz Sprint (J J the Jet Plane) - 115
Godolphin Mile (Skysurfers) - 118
UAE Derby (Khawlah) - 111
Dubai Golden Shaheen (Rocket Man) - 124
Dubai Duty Free (Presvis) - 123
Dubai Sheema Classic (Rewilding) - 122
Dubai World Cup (Victoire Pisa) - 120

***

I heard u 2day on Sam Spear. It's good 2 get
an unbiased opinion from the east. Can I get pp's
for Bite Me, Tell Flo Hello, Arp. Thanks.
Marc

The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Dan,
With Rewilding's win in the Sheema Classic, do you think we can now classify Darara as a Blue Hen? How many group stakes winners has she produced?
Alan

Here is Darara's produce record:

1988:  Dariyoun (by Shahrastani):  Multiple stakes-winner in France and Spain
1989:  Dardistan (by Alleged):  Winner
1990:  Dardjini (by Nijinsky II):  Winner
1991:  Dararita (by Halo):  Winner
1992:  Dariyani (by Doyoun):  Unraced
1993:  Darazari (by Sadler's Wells):  Group 1 winner in Australia
1994:  No Report
1995:  Kilimanjaro (by Shirley Heights):  Group 2-placed in England
1996:  Rhagaas (by Sadler's Wells):  Group 1-placed in France
1997:  Dead Foal
1998:  No Report
1999:  Diaghilev (by Sadler's Wells):  Group 1 winner in Hong Kong
2000:  Barren
2001:  Barren
2002:  Barren
2003:  Barren
2004:  Evita (by Selkirk):  Placed
2005:  Dar Re Mi (by Singspiel):  Multiple Group 1 winner
2006:  Barren
2007:  Rewilding (by Tiger Hill):  Group 1 winner in United Arab Emirates

***

*Back for my third venture into HandiGambling. Haven't even cashed in my previous two.
HG 226:
$80 Exacta 6-4
$20 Exacta 4-6
All signs point to #6 - Gimmearide just being better than every other filly and mare in this race. Having just missed in her previous two races, that were won with respectable times, she was given a little time off and should come back strong. I'll put her on top despite the claiming tag. #4 - Lilies So Fair is my second choice for the latter half of the exacta, but I feel roughly the same confidence using her as I would my first choice for this spot (Already has been used in HG). She's coming off of two not-so-great performance off the long layoff. She was clearly outrun in her 5 furlong return, though I do not know if she was fit enough for such a sprint. And even though I haven't seen her previous race, it would appear she got a strange ride. In her last, she broke widest of all and appeared to be asked a little to gain position, the pace was quite fast and she was slowly taken back before making a run in the final quarter. She should gain ground on horses that run a 1:09 and change 3/4 split in a first-level allowance at Tampa, but I feel it was an alright effort, and puts her in the hunt for second at this level. She drops in for the tag on what I'm expecting to be a much improved effort. If the effort returns to her July '10 BSF she may challenge #6 - Gimmearide.
Tom P


*Dan, I think I want HG 227 to be:
--
Thursday, March 31, Gulfstream Park Race 5.
--
Fillies going a mile on the turf. 3-year-olds to boot
Tom P


Congrats to Tom P. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.  Here are the past performances for this week's race.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POSTING

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan." Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified. Please post your plays and analysis to the blog. In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please. I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.

I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all!

AttachmentSize
Arromanches.pdf73.27 KB
Twilight Agenda.pdf62.28 KB
Bitearp.pdf111.54 KB
HG227.pdf156.1 KB
Eighttofasttocatch.pdf61.22 KB
kelso More than 1 year ago
can you give me the pp of lady in reverse he ran in the late 60s early 70s with darryl montoya up. i remembered i bailed out my father when he won the nitecap at aqueduct, i believe he paid 65.00.
Marc More than 1 year ago
Dan can u post pp's for cool edge
bobc More than 1 year ago
HG 227 #2 Miss Maggie Girl Seems to be a new horse. Broke maiden impressively. Ran very well first time on grass. Distance should not be an issue. #6 Floating Alone Appears to be best closer in field. Will be closing late. #8 Sarafina No where to run in last. A big shot with a better trip Wager: $50 tri key 2/ 6, 8/ 6,8 $100
larry mattson More than 1 year ago
i like the 8 20 wp 8 10ex 8/56 5 ex 5,6/8 10 tri 8/6/5
jwsax More than 1 year ago
$10 tri 2,5 w 2,5 w 4,6,7,8 $20ex 2,5 plent of pace in here but top two choices seem to have enough tactical speed to avoid getting caught in a duel. #5 second of a freshening looking to repeat at track and distance in first start agaist winners should be tough. #2 third off a layoff stretching out for the first time after a troubled trip going five eighths last out when closing to finish third in a solid 1xoptional also looks formidable. throw closers in for third and see if we cant get lucky
blackseabass More than 1 year ago
C, If you want to speculate that over time training patterns will change the number of miles that Derby winners have on them be my guest. Trainers have been trying to do it on less for a long enough time that its become common place and its not working out very good so far. I don't know whats going to happen in the next 25 years, but I know whats happened the last 25. I named quite a few good horses that were beaten on derby day and they all had low miles & low odds in common. I could name a bunch more if I wanted to track it back. I didn't say low milers can't win. I just said they don't do it much. If horses with 3.5 miles on them win 10 of the next 20 Derbies I'll change my mind . Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen. Do you see a major trend to low miles horses in the winners Yogi posted ? I don't . What I see is an occasional fluke. Derby truisms . They are truisms because they are rarely contradicted by results. When I gamble on something with low probability I want to get odds that make it worth the risk . It is unlikely that this year will provide such odds on the low milers. Rules are made to be broken. I agree when the rule is no smoking here or there etc. Derby "rules" are not really rules . They are guidlines and they are effective when eliminating losers. Personally , I like lines in the sand. My handicapping style is to eliminate the losers & then try to make a good guess on the ones that remain. In other words handicapping is a game of elimination for me. If you are afraid to draw lines in the sand then everybody is a contender and you are no closer to finding the winner than you were before you picked up the form. Pretending that all systems are go on a horse that has question marks is dangerous to the bankroll. Mo has ZERO female family 1 in his 1st 5 generations. Thats a black mark on his resume.He doesn't have a ton of negatives. Off memory Winning Colors is the only Derby winner since '70 that had zero FF 1 . Thats not in the PPs & it won't get said on TV or someplace else on the WWW. Its "informacion secreto" known only to Formbloggers that pay attention to what BSB says .LOL. Mo will come into the Derby just under or right at 5 miles of preparation. This cannot be construed as a good thing when faced with the reality that its better to have more miles. Thats another negative. Those two things are much more negative than his being sired by Indian Charlie IMO. Sound horses run . Unsound ones spend a lot of time in their stalls. I know nothing of Mo's soundness. I still put him at even money to be in the gate on the 1st Saturday in May. Thats business. Its a lot easier to make an excuse and say you were going to win the TC if your horse wouldn't have got injured than it is to just win the Derby. I'm guessing Mo will get a twisted nose hair that knocks him out of the Wood or Derby. Horseplayers are suckers. They assume that horse owners care as much about the horses as they do. They DON'T. If they did we wouldn't have umpteen BS horse retirement farms begging money from the players to support horses formerly owned by filthy rich scumbags. When I say scumbags I don't think thats really a strong enough word. Also there is no real connection between number of starts and number of miles. Thanks for the responses on mileage C, Yogi & Ron Z . I thought that was going to slip past without any. Yogi, thanks for posting the list kid . I didn't feel like posting it at the time I brought it up. You saved me the trouble of doing it later.
vicstu More than 1 year ago
Alan, Yes, all is well now...GO VCU!!! (I live in FL now, as you know, but I cannot help but love that team and their coach Chaka Kahn (oops, I mean Shaka Smart :)!) They are a T-E-A-M regardless of what they do from this point forward. Mathieu, Yeah, I know I am late to the party. I have watched him for some time...I knew who he was going into his big test at SA. I agree about the SA Derby giving us a clearer picture. I am hesitant to back any horse for the Derby early on any more despite Big Brown. The year before I was big on Hard Spun (and a lesser extent on Street Sense). I thought Curlin was good enough to place or show but was too green and lacked the early speed to win. Two years ago it was Musket Man. In 2006 it was Barbaro...then Bernardini. As time goes on I get less and less married to these horses and try and take a more pragmatic look at a horse's actual chances at hitting the board at a good price. I take pride in EVERY year picking a value horse that hits the board. Last year it was Paddy, and I hit the tri again (I missed it in MTB's year, of course). But I did pretty well that year placing $20 across the board for Musket Man to W-P-S. He paid pretty good at $20 to show, and then I hit the tri again in the Preakness that year (who didn't, the 3 best horses in that race ran 1-2-3?). So, yes...I am cautiously late to the party. But I do like the horse. BTW, I saw Tencent in a video taken at track side after the San Felipe Stakes. He actually joined the winner's circle party at about 2:06 at the video. The camera guy even says, "There's my friend Tencent...in the winner's circle." He has on a purple shirt and a hat. So, not only was he there for the Lewis, he was there for the SF!! A real fanatic! Here is the video link. If it does not hyperlink just cut and paste it. Then look for Tencent at about 2:06 or so... And lastly, we have no idea how good Runflatout is thanks to that last race. The horse is very, very fast. Up to 7f I bet he would keep TF busy for sure. Never said he would beat him. And, by the way...one of my reasons for being cautious about Premier Pegasus is El Gato Malo. EGM had an early Derby romp JUST LIKE PP in the San Rafael at 1 mile. He won by almost 7 and Trevor said the EXACT same thing: "They will have to sprout wings to catch him..." Same torrid early pace. EGM turned into a decent stakes racehorse, and a threat up to 9f, but he never was a LEGIT Derby horse. Col John made sure of that. The difference here is the pedigree (for one) and the amount of tactical speed PP has. EGM had speed, but was more effective coming with one late run. I really think PP could be any kind. Tencent, Man, if that IS you in that video, you are the ULTIMATE fan! I like PP as well...think he has a good shot if he runs back to that form. He hasn't run a bad race yet.
Scott More than 1 year ago
HG 227: Think there's enough speed to ensure an honest pace. Think the three favorites (5,6,7) will be around at the end but can be beaten. Miss Maggie Girl (2) drops and stretches out. If she likes the route she can win this kind of race. Sarafina (8) had trouble in the stretch versus two of the favorites here in just her second lifetime race, and can turn the tables with the expected improvement and a clean run. The play: $4 trifecta: 2,8 w/2,5,6,7,8 w/2,5,6,7,8 = $96 $1 trifecta: 2,8 w/6,7 w/6,7 = $4
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
#4 Blue Angel Express. Ran well in states Bred Stakes turf race. Showed early speed in an open Stakes turf key race last out. Nice turf run breaking Maiden. Good turf last 4, may improve. $5.50 Super 4/ 3,5,6 / 2,7,8 /3,5,6 =$99
Yogi More than 1 year ago
Van Savant, If a Blue Thonger may be so bold as to tender an opinion about the Downhill Madness....... There are some newbies to this unique affair, but I always tend to lean to the experienced downhill runners. That being said, I really couldn't find any reason to include any of them in my consideration. #2 Lunar Mist will be absolutely flying at the end. If she had an outside post, I would absolutely give her a big shot. From the 2 hole, and probably having to loop the field, the best that I can expect is bottom of tri, or if things go perfectly, the place money. #3 Linda Lou will probably lying just behind Bab At The Bowster. She doesn't have great early speed or late speed. If she were a router, she would be a grinder. Here, she just happens to be a high speed grinder. I'm afraid that her chalky class will put these away after they cross the dirt. #5 Bab At The Bowster could be dangerous out on the front all alone. The price could be right for a stab with this for the win and underneath a couple in exacta(place) bets. #7 Holy Flapper has a lot of layoff lines that concern me. She ran her best BSF last time when she was wearing shades for the first time. Then she goes on the shelf for a couple of months. She has that coveted outside post, and Gomez climbs back on. Not sure if that's a good or bad thing going downhill. If a speed duel develops, and there's a meltdown, she might win the attrition battle. I just don't see her getting more than place or show money. I will just play this one for action. $5 win #5 Bab At The Bowster $5 Exactas 2-3 / 5