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Top 25 Winning Beyers, Recent Workers
Let's get back to business.
Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's races (2/7/11 - 2/13/11):
1. GROOMEDFORVICTORY - 105 - OC c-62k/N2X - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
2. TACKLEBERRY - 103 - Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship (G2) - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3. HILDA'S PASSION - 100 - Hurricane Bertie Stakes (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Gulfstream
4. SILVER REUNION - 98 - Endeavour Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Tampa Bay
5. MALIBU KID - 96 - OC 32k/N$Y-N - 7 Furlongs - Charles Town
6. COMMANDEERED - 94 - OC 62k/N2X-N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
6. NATHAN'S H Q - 94 - OC 80k/N3X-N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
6. QUIET AGAIN - 94 - Curribot Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Sunland
6. VISION IN GOLD - 94 - Santa Maria Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles - Santa Anita
10. DEPUTY DANEY - 93 - Always Run Lucky Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
10. LADY RAILRIDER - 93 - Alw 47800NC - 1 Mile (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
10. SILVER MEDALLION - 93 - El Camino Real Derby (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
13. EARNEDNOTGIVEN - 92 - OC 62k/N2X-N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Santa Anita
13. KATE'S MAIN MAN - 92 - Essex Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
15. BENCH POINTS - 91 - OC 80k/N1X-N - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
15. BILLY ONE LITE - 91 - OC 40k/N3X-N - 6 Furlongs - Parx
15. SEA RASCAL - 91 - Clm 50000(50-40) - 6 Furlongs - Santa Anita
18. ALBERGATTI - 90 - Md Sp Wt 55k - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
18. ANTHONY'S CROSS - 90 - Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Santa Anita
18. CAMP VICTORY - 90 - Clm c-(40-35) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Santa Anita
18. CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE - 90 - Rail Splitter Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Sam Houston
18. CODY SAMORA - 90 - Alw 50000s - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
18. COMPROMISE - 90 - OC 32k/N2X-N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Tampa Bay
24. CALLE VISTA - 89 - OC 62k/N2X-N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita
24. HILLSWICK - 89 - OC 35k/N3L - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
24. NERGAL (FR) - 89 - Clm 25000(25-20) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
24. ROMACACA - 89 - OC 100k/C-N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
24. SIENTE EL TRUENO - 89 - OC 17k/N1X-N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
*Groomedforvictory's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*Disappointing speed figure earned by BRETHREN (83) for his win in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. The undefeated kin to Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver regressed a point from both of his starts at two.
*BENCH POINTS made it 4-4 lifetime after his victory in a six-furlong, entry-level optional claimer at Santa Anita. The winner of the Graduation Stakes and I'm Smokin Stakes against California-breds last year, Bench Points is a three-year-old gelded son of Benchmark out of an unraced half-sister to Visible Slew (Grade 2-placed at 1 1/16 miles). Bench Points' second dam, Visible Gold (by Deputy Minister), won the Grade 3 Santa Anita Breeders' Cup Handicap at a mile on grass. His fourth dam, Alma North (by Northern Dancer), won 15 stakes races including the Grade 1 Matchmaker in 1973. Bench Points is trained by Tim Yakteen.
*ALBERGATTI, second in his debut on January 16, returned to graduate for Steve Asmussen at Santa Anita in a seven-furlong maiden special weight. A three-year-old son of Unbridled's Song, Albergatti is out of the stakes-winning sprinter My Miss Storm Cat, a half-sister to West Virginia Derby (Grade 2) winner Soul Warrior. Albergatti's third dam, Chaldea, was a multiple Grade 3 winner and a half-sister to multiple Grade 1 winner Cheval Volant.
*Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint hero Chamberlain Bridge tuned up for a trip to Dubai with a successful seven-year-old debut in the Rail Splitter Stakes at Sam Houston.
ON THE WORK TAB:
*TANDA (5F - 1:03.80H - SA - 2/15/11) - Tanda hasn't raced since finishing third in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont. She was sidleined with a bone chip in an ankle.
*POWHATAN COUNTY (5F - 1:00.02B - PBD - 2/13/11) - Second in the With Anticipation Stakes last year at Saratoga, Powhatan County missed some time with a fever.
*ATTA BOY ROY (4F - 45.60H - TUP - 2/14/11) - The speedy Atta Boy Roy suffered a superficial wound on his right foreleg when tenth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.
*COZI ROSIE (7F - 1:25.40H - HOL - 2/14/11) - Second in the Honeymoon last May, Cozi Rosie has been sidelined with an ankle injury.
*DAWNIE MACHO (6F - 1:13.00H - HOL - 2/14/11) - Seventh in the Sorrento at Del Mar last summer, Dawnie Macho has been out with a shoulder injury.
*DAYTONA (5F - 1:01.80H - SA - 2/13/11) - Unraced since finishing tenth in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Mile, Daytona has had various ailments including a torn tendon sheath.
*FREE FLYING SOUL (5F - 1:00.00 - SA - 2/10/11) - Second in the A Gleam back in July, Free Flying Soul underwent surgery to remove an ankle chip.
*GET MY FIX (3F - 36.40H - SA - 2/15/11) - Unraced since finishing second in the 2009 Hollywood Prevue, Get My Fix missed time with a bone chip in his ankle.
*LADY SHAKESPEARE (2F - 27.00B - PAY - 2/13/11) - The winner of the New York at 1 1/4 miles on turf on June 19, Lady Shakespeare has been out after suffering a condylar fracture to her right hind leg.
*LET'S GET FISCAL (5F - 1:02.40B - PMM - 2/9/11) - Fourth in the Schuylerville on Opening afternoon at Saratoga, Let's Get Fiscal had surgery to remove ankle chips.
*MEDAGLIA D'AMOUR (3F - 35.00H - SA - 2/13/11) - The winner of the Wilshire on May 1 at Hollywood, Medaglia d'Amour has been sidelined with a foot injury.
*MISREMEMBERED (6F - 1:12.60H - SA - 2/14/11) - Unraced since winning the 2010 Big 'Cap, Misremembered has had foot issues, but is gearing up to defend his title on March 5.
*MR. GRUFF (5F - 58.80H - HOL - 2/13/11) - Third in the Shoemaker Mile in May, the swift Mr. Gruff worked fast on February 13.
*NOTONTHESAMEPAGE (4F - 47.80 - GP - 2/13/11) - Unraced since finishing seventh in the 2009 Fountain of Youth, Notonthesamepage received his third workout back on Sunday morning at Gulfstream. He reportedly bled from his trachea in his last race.
*OCTOGARIAN (5F - 1:01.20H - SA - 2/13/11) - Unraced since finishing sixth in the 2009 Sorrento, Octogarian reportedly had shin issues.
*RIGOLETTA (6F - 1:13.80H - SA - 2/13/11) - The Oak Leaf winner, sidelined with a splint bone injury, is scheduled to return in the La Habra Stakes at Santa Anita on February 21.
*RODMAN (4F - 49.67B - BEL training - 2/14/11) - Unraced since winning the 2009 Queens County, Rodman is entered in an optional claimer at Aqueduct on February 18.
*SAVEMYSPOTIMBETING (4F - 47.90H - GP - 2/14/11) - Suffered a leg injury after winning his maiden at Gulfstream on January 23, 2010.
*SMASH (4F - 51.00H - SA - 2/15/11) - Injured a stifle after winning his maiden last July.
*SUMMER MOVIE (3F - 35.40H - HOL - 2/12/11) - Came back body sore after being impeded by Twirling Candy in the Del Mar Derby.
*SWAY AWAY (6F - 1:11.80HG - SA - 2/10/11) - Suffered a wrenched knee after finishing second in the Best Pal at Del Mar.
*SWEET REPENT (4F - 51.40B - CRC - 2/12/11) - Third in the Nancy's Glitter at Calder in July, Sweet Repent reportedly has had foot and splint problems.
*THE FACTOR (7F - 1:24.40H - HOL - 2/14/11) - Exciting maiden winner missed some time with a foot bruise, but may contest Sunday's San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita.
*TUVIA'S FORCE (4F - 50.04B - BEL - 2/10/11) - Unraced since finishing seventh in the Tampa Bay Derby (chip left knee)
*UH OH BANGO (4F - 47.40H - SA - 2/12/11) - Fractured left front cannon bone after finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Entered in an allowance race at Santa Anita on February 17.
*WINSLOW HOMER (4F- 50.10B - OP - 2/15/11) - The winner of the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga has been out after undergoing surgery to fix a condylar fracture of a cannon bone in his left foreleg.
Just wanted to thank everyone for their concern last week. All is well.
Back tomorrow with questions, answers, and HandiGambling past performances.
Re Beyer Numbers and Brethren: I don't pay much atention to the beyer figures. But for all who believe Brethren's number was too low, or the California Beyers are wrong, or this figure is wrong or that is wrong... Turn it into a positive because you may have yourself good betting opportunities. For instance, lets say Brethren runs next in the Fla. Derby and your opinion is his Beyer was way too low, he might be 10-1 in a race you think he should be 6-1. Same with Cali horses that come East. If you think, as a general rule, the numbers are low it should translate into inflated odds on those horses. Isn't that what we, as bettors, are looking for? I also agree that Brethren did not beat a stellar field. However, I think we will be saying that the winner didn't beat much in the majority of Derby preps from now on. What are there, like 8,000 prep races nowadays? And since the owners and trainers need to shop around to accumulate graded earnings to get into the Derby strong Derby preps will continue to be the exception, not the rule.
Dan Just a reminder to all that this weeks Handigambling race is at SA race #7 Ron B
Hi Dan, In regards to Brethren's low Beyer number I'd say that: a) the final time of 1:45.07 for 8.5 f is slow so that the BSF which is based on final time is low, b) it was his first race of the year and he has ample time to improve, and c) if one rally wants to understand the concept of the Beyer numbers, pick up a copy of Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer copyrighted in 1975. He spends over 40 pages dealing with the topic. Read those 40 pages, let it sink in, then read it again as necessary. One of the beauties of the old Racing Times, that Steve Crist ran, is that it offered the BSF and few people bothered to use them. Someone asked me once why I bought the Racing Times instead of the Racing Form and I said, “If the Times doesn't give me at least three double digit winners a day, I'm disappointed.” People would love to bet horses with a lot of first, seconds and thirds, but the Beyers might show them to consistently run in the 70's, while a horse that had struggled home fifth against better could run in the high 80's. On a high percentage of those occasions a horse with that sort advantage wins. Now everyone has access to the numbers and there is no real edge to them. They are a tool, however, and should be used as such. You still have to handicap the race, but the Beyers can point you in the right direction. And I too just finished “Lord of Misrule” and enjoyed it immensely. It is not an easy read as J. Gordon puts you through reading calisthenics and verbal gymnastics, but that is what good writers do. My question would be, “Did Elizabeth die too?” Thanks, Dan.
Steve, Brethren ran in Florida, not California. I didn't say a single word about California. You can't look at a race and say "that looks like a 95". Watch the Sam F Davis and pretend you are watching $5000 Maiden Claimers who routinely run in the 50s. Does the 83 seem fair now? It would probably be generous. Am I equating the Sam F Davis to $5000 Maiden Claimers? No. But the point is, you can't guess a BSF just by your visual interpretation of the race or how impressive you think the winner was. That doesn't matter. What does matter are the typical numbers earned by the entire field. If the also-rans were routinely getting BSFs in the 90s, Brethren's number would be a lot higher than 83. That's what I was saying to Kyri.
The Top Beyer # 105 for Groomedforvictory can't be accurate with the slow splits 1:12 6F etc.??The numbers that day are very inconsistant--look at the 7th race 5F turf the winner gets a 78--off great splits and finishing time--the 6th place horse jumps in the gate spots the field 6-8 lengths runs back to back sub 22 to get back in the race and gets a 58. No way to explain the 105 or the 78. I'd like to hear an explanation.
Annie You don't miss a thing !!! You got it. I hope Watchmaker keeps on saying how slow he (Brethren) is and Andy keeps giving him low numbers. Maybe the odds will actually get up to a place where I might even consider placing a small bet on him. Actually, I did not bet the Sam F Davis and I don't plan to bet him in his next race. Maybe in the Derby if he makes it. Sounds like he could end up in the Florida Derby. That surprised me a little bit. I'm sure having fun with him ! Dick W
REMINDER The Road to the Roses first scoring day is February 26, so be sure to have your stable created and entered in the DRF League no later than 11:59 AM on that day if you wish to participate in the fist scoring race. Otherwise, you can create your stable through April 30, but won't earn as many points. there will be a couple of supplemental drafts as well and I'll notify the board when that time period opens. For those who wish to participate: Go to: http://www.roadtotheroses.com/ Create your stable, THEN you can join the DRF league by entering this info when prompted: League Name: DRF BOXERS AND THONGS League Identifier: 1914857503 Activation Code: 962186939 You can enter up to three stables and RTTR is giving away weekly prizes as well as the major end-game prizes. EVERYONE (except those poor suckers in Quebec) is eligible. Rules are here:http://www.roadtotheroses.com/G=94/official_rules. Laura
two most interesting stats of the day for me - t/j combo in the money last 60 days: TBD: Race 8 Clement/Lenclud 90% (9/10) + 28% roi GP: Race 9 Canani/Lopez 92% (22/24) + 65% roi how'd they do? TBD: show price $2.40 (20%) GP: Placed ($4.60), but - show price $3.20 (60%) they might be small samples, (granted, the time frame is also limited), but these are some impressive streaks... HEY, has anyone else ever gotten a HEBREW word in their Captcha?? lol
#5 Suddenly Sam, the bomber who won the tenth at Parx, was 70-1 when the gate opened and 50-1 when the tote clicked at the top of the stretch. Magic ! !
Play at GP... Late Pick 4 50c All / 8,9 / 9 / All = $96 x 2 = $192 Just beat the fav at 3/5!!!! Good Luck. Whackymacky Out!!!