11/07/2007 1:48PM

Too Tough


How much is a 6x3x5x3x4x6 pick-six play at Aqueduct Wednesday? Way too much ($12,960, to be exact), and it would still feel least 6-5 against getting me through a devlishly tricky card with a two-day $154,615 carryover.

So I think I'll pass and, nothing personal if you're playing, root for a giant triple-carryover pool into Thursday's slightly more manageable card. Just for fun, here's how I'd spend that almost 13 grand on a caveman ticket:

Race 4: 1,5,6,7,8,10
Race 5: 1a,5,8
Race 6: 1,3,4,6,8
Race 7: 3,6,9
Race 8: 1,2,4,5
Race 9: 4,5,7,8,9,11

--Today began the Aqueduct Fall Showdown contest at NYRA, and let's play that one too -- again just for fun, not because I can't scare up the $10 entry fee but because I'm ineligible. I'll again increase the degree of difficulty by excluding all morning-line favorites from consideration.

For opening day let's go with Sherine in the 8th race. I realize she's probably better on grass than dirt but she's turning back in distance and going turf to dirt against a small and weak field, and her recent workouts suggest she'll be fine on the surface. If were playing without the ML fave exclusion, I might instead go for Going Day in the 5th. She's lost all four of her U.S. starts as the favorite and may have some character flaws, but should still hit the board against this group.

Any improvement on our Belmont Fall Showdown results, where we were knocked out on Day Two (2), will be considered a moral victory.

Update 3:05 pm: Phew, saved $12,960. Managed to smoke out an 8-5 and a 9-5 in races where I went 5 and 6 deep on the mythical ticket, but couldn't have used Love Cove at 11-1 in the second leg on a $129,600 play. As for the Showdown, good thing I set that extra hurdle since ML favorite Going Day was off the board in the Love Cove race. Funnily enough, my non-ML-fave Showdown pick, Sherine in the 8th, turned out to be the second most-used selection of the day -- right behind Sibley, the ML favorite in the same race. Five of the day's top 10 picks by contest players have already finished off the board.

Joe Starace More than 1 year ago
recently, The post and the news mention a woman trainer was suspended a certain amount of days for her horse testing positive in the last race in saratoga which her horse won. Don't you think this is happening to often and the fine and suspension are way to leniant.
Will More than 1 year ago
I didn't play the Pick 6, but I hit Love Cove at 11-1, whom Steven wouldn't have played. Feels good to outsmart a guy I enjoy and respect as much as Steven Crist on a pick.
tom mcdonough More than 1 year ago
I am curious as to how you analyzed the 2d and 6th legs of the Pick 6-I put in a $216 ticket and went three-deep in the 2d race and had the winner, but didn't have either of the two favorites in the final-I had the 2 and 3 neither of which you touched going 6 deep.
kchris More than 1 year ago
I put together a $180 ticket. I live 50 miles from the Tampa track and cannot bet New York tracks on-line, so did not put the ticket in. I had a 3 x 5 x 3 x 1 x 1 x 2. 1a,8,10 with 3,4,5,8,9 with 1,5,6 with 3 with 1 with 4,5. In the 2nd leg, 9 was my 5th choice, but if I was that deep, how could I leave it out? Now I am kicking myself - 5 favs and it paid $14k - crazy.
Bob More than 1 year ago
This post is completely off topic but I gotta get it said. The breeding industry has got to be heading for an immense meltdown. 10.5 million for a barren mare no matter the breeding is just ludicrous. No one can go on breeding to breed, the Coolmore bunch has the sportsbook money and anyone who has filled their tank in the last 30 years knows where Darley prints theirs but whoa I wish I could find a way to short this stock, no pun intended.
Jimmy Darr More than 1 year ago
Mr. C, If we had played the .10centSuper in race 4&9 with the horses you used in the P/6 we would be having a nice surf&turf this evening!With Love,J.D.
AndyScoggin More than 1 year ago
The TVG guys were also talking about your comment about playing their picks cold! And right now they are crowing about Steve Davidovitz's latest DRF+ column on Pick 6 tickets. You have been teaching us about this all summer and fall. I guess they did not read EXOTIC BETTING!
Bob Grant More than 1 year ago
"TVG on-air talent has been ripping you..."; NOTHING could be further from the truth! Mr.B today noted, as he put out a $72 Pick-6 ticket for the Big-A carryover, that he could easily put together a $5,000 ticket & still not hit it! At that point, they brought up your Breeders Cup Play. Then for the secong straight day, they brought up your Blog comments regarding THEIR On-Air Tickets.. AND LOVED IT! Don't know which show the above poster watched, but it wasn't the one playing on MY TV!- Bob
Floppydog More than 1 year ago
TVG talent??? Oximoron? I wanted Brad Thomas BC day but there stood TVG (two vein guys). Not having Thomas in the booth was a stupendous mistake---how can TVG not recognize the most informative of NJ handicappers?
Jimmy Darr More than 1 year ago
How much is 5x2x5x2x1x6. Just for fun I took your pick's Tweeked them a little and my P/6 ticket is only $1200.A single on the #4 horse in the 8th race is the only lock on our ticket!Hang in there Players,winter will bring us lotts!!! of P/6 carryovers.With Love, J.D.