11/23/2010 6:19PM

Tons to Cover!

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Let's get to your questions.

First of all, do you know if Musket Man is gonna be running again next yr? Secondly, other than the current 3 yr olds that Watchmaker mentions are there any that may run again next yr that you are looking forward to see?? How about the top 3 yr old fillies from this year (blind luck, havre de grace, devil may care)? are any of them returning? Finally, any word on the top 3 yr old sprinter from this year (discreetly mine) who was injured after the kings bishop i believe. Will he return in 2011 to sprint or has he been retired.
eric t.

I haven't heard of any retirement plans concerning Musket Man so I assume he's currently a go for 2011.  Todd Pletcher hopes to have Discreetly Mine and Devil May Care back in training at Palm Meadows early next year. 

Blind Luck may run in the La Brea Stakes next month and she should perform in the La Canada series in Southern California for four-year-old fillies.  Havre de Grace is expected to run at Oaklawn next year for new trainer Larry Jones. 

As for three-year-olds that I'd like to see on the track next year, Fly Down and Morning Line are two obvious ones for trainer Nick Zito along with Apart for Al Stall  Steve Asmussen's Rule by Night was an impressive winner of the Groovy Stakes at six furlongs at Aqueduct on November 21, and may turn into a good sprinter next season.  The New York-breds Stormy's Majesty and Friend Or Foe have talent.  Watch out for Noble's Promise as he continues his return from injury, Smiling Tiger and Wise Dan in sprints, Paddy O'Prado on turf, and Richard Dutrow Jr.'s Trickmeister...if he ever returns to the work tab.  Toss in Admiral Alex and there are some promising runners out there.

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Dan can I get pp's for velvet blue & both ends burning?
Velvet blue was a horse that Tony Diaz got caught with
A buzzer after the race @ bay meadows. Would u know where
I can watch the video of both ends burning winning the oak tree
Invitational in 1984 with r baze up. Trevor Denman had a great
call of that race. Thanks
M D

I couldn't find a video of the 1984 Oak Tree Invitational, but the past performances you requested are available at the end of this blog posting.

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Dan. there was a horse in the 70s by the name ,, Break Up The Game do you have any pps please! thanks!
spiro

His past performances are available at the end of this blog posting.

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dan, could you please post the winning post positions from this yrs. saratoga meet. also we have synth /turf turf/synth stats but howcome no dirt/synth synth/dirt trainer stats , i could really use this info especially for the upcoming meet @ santa anita. also wanna say really like the vids with you & mike beers & throwing harvey into the mix was great... i really miss the old days @ the spa waiting for the little bespeckled man in the bright red jacket to take the mic & start "talking horses"
$bill

Here are the post position statistics from this past Saratoga meet:

Dirt Sprints:  

1. 24-169 (14%)  
2. 22-169 (13%)  
3. 28-169 (17%)  
4. 20-168 (12%)  
5. 14-166 (8%)  
6. 15-157 (10%)  
7. 18-136 (13%)  
8. 14-93 (15%)  
9. 10-63 (16%)  
10. 1-29 (3%)
11. 2-12 (17%) 
12. 1-3 (33%)
13. 0-3 (0%)
14. 0-2 (0%)

Dirt Routes:

1. 8-34 (24%)
2. 6-34 (18%)
3. 5-34 (15%)
4. 3-33 (9%)
5. 7-32 (22%)
6. 2-25 (8%)
7. 1-12 (8%)
8. 2-8 (25%)
9. 0-5 (0%)
10. 0-2 (0%)
11. 0-1 (0%)

Mellon Turf Sprints: 

1. 2-45 (4%) 
2. 10-45 (22%)  
3. 4-45 (9%)  
4. 5-45 (11%)  
5. 6-45 (13%) 
6. 4-45 (9%)  
7. 4-45 (9%) 
8. 3-42 (7%)  
9. 2-33 (6%)  
10. 5-21 (24%)  
11. 0-3 (0%)  
12. 0-1 (0%)  

Mellon Turf Routes: 

1. 8-50 (16%)  
2. 5-50 (10%) 
3. 7-50 (14%)  
4. 5-50 (10%)  
5. 4-50 (8%) 
6. 4-50 (8%)  
7. 9-47 (19%) 
8. 3-44 (7%)  
9. 3-40 (8%)
10. 0-31 (0%)  
11. 1-13 (8%)  
12. 1-7 (14%)  

Inner Turf Routes:

1. 6-92 (7%)
2. 10-92 (11%)
3. 8-92 (8%)
4. 9-92 (10%)
5. 14-92 (15%)
6. 14-91 (15%)
7. 5-90 (6%)
8. 10-84 (12%)
9. 11-64 (17%)
10. 6-38 (16%)
11. 0-9 (0%)
12. 0-4 (0%)

I'm not sure about the paper, but the Formulator program has the following trainer stats:

Dirt
Turf
Inner Dirt
First Time Turf
Off The Turf
Dirt To Turf
Turf to Dirt
Wet
Synthetic
First Time Synthetic
Dirt to Synthetic
Synthetic to Dirt
Turf to Synthetic
Synthetic to Turf

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...Forget those for a second... what if we just go back 5 years or so... would Zenyatta be able to nip Ghostzapper at the wire? Would she fall just a little short? Would she blow by him? Or would she never even get close to him? 
The question is, what does your gut feeling about this hypothetical matchup say about each horse's place on the all-time greatest list? Or does it not say much of anything? Maybe a little of both? I'd say the last option is probably true... and I admit that's the weakest stance one could take.
C

A discussion concerning a hypothetical matchup between two horses from different eras or years makes for fun bar-room banter, but I don't think it means anything in terms of an all-time ranking.

Who was better?  Zenyatta or Ghostzapper?  What's the distance?  What are the weights?  What's the pace involved?  Who else is in the race?  Is it a match race?  Is the track wet?  Sealed?  Biased?  With horses of similar quality, different circumstances will lead to different results.  Do I think Zenyatta would beat Ghostzapper 10 out of 10?  Hardly.  Do I think Ghostzapper would run Zenyatta off her feet?  Perhaps in some situations, but certainly not in every instance. 

If we run the race under different scenarios, we may have different winners.  How, realistically, can we compare those horses to Citation, Man o'War, or Spectacular Bid?  We can't.  All we have are our opinions, our gut feelings of which champion is better.  Not surprisingly, there will never be a consensus as to who the "very best" is/was. 

Sunday Silence bested Easy Goer three out of four times.  Affirmed won the majority of his races over Alydar.  Yet, there are fervent believers out there that swear Easy Goer and Alydar were the "better" horse.  If there's no agreement on the better horse when two runners faced off time and time again, how can we compare horses that never competed against each other?

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thanks for Mossflower, Dan.
I've been trying to remember the name of another fast filly that Shosberg trained some time ago, probably a 7 furlong specialist, could have been early 90s. Might not have been too sturdy, but was one of the best tryers I've ever seen.
I've tried to search for something like a lifetime stable of his, but haven't gotten anywhere. Do you have any idea of how to search for all the horses a trainer has cared for? (I'd know her name as soon as I saw it.)

Dan, if possible, would love to see that hard-hitting senior citizen's lifetime pps, thanks
p ensign

Formulator lists all of a trainer's starters over the past five years.  Before that time period, it could get somewhat complicated.  Here's a bio on Schosberg from the Breeders' Cup site that lists some of his better-known runners.

http://www.breederscup.com/bio.aspx?id=2392

The past performances for Coach Jimi Lee are available at the bottom of this blog posting.

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Dan,
We have a 2 yr old running thursday, 9th race at FairGrounds. Goodifitgoes. Please let us know your thoughts on the race.
Thanks
BEBC

First of all, I wish you the best of luck and hope that you get into the winner's circle. 

Although none of these babies have  reached the 65 Beyer par as of yet, I feel that this may be a pretty deep statebred maiden special weight. 
Rocco Tiger looms the horse to beat based on his runner-up effort at 3-5 odds at Delta on October 27.
Harrie (second-time starter, first-time blinkers) may improve after chasing next-out 92 Beyer winner Su Casa G Casa (won Kip Deville Stakes at Remington on October 8) at Louisiana Downs. 
Blackntansatlarrys shows some solid workouts for Morris Nicks, and Ryanide may be a value play for trainer Patrick Ladner.
 
It looks like a contentious race.  We'll be rooting for you and Goodifitgoes, who ran a nice race first-out on May 22.

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Dan,
Any comments from Baffert on his maiden winner Coil. Beyer good? Doesn't Uncle Mo's beyer in the bc match street sense's from his 2yo score in the bc?
thanks
Tony

Coil, privately-purchased from Glen Hill Farm after a third-place finish in his career debut, won impressively for Baffert in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Hollywood on November 13.  By Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given out of a half-sister to Possibly Perfect (won six Grade 1 turf routes), he is certainly bred to handle additional distance, and the connections do have high hopes for him next year.  He earned a 78 Beyer when winning his maiden.

The 108 earned by Uncle Mo in the Juvenile is equal to Street Sense's number.  War Pass (113) has the record for BC Juvenile winners (since 1991).

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LSD , can you post the PP's of Bold Chieftain and Go Between please. If so thanks in advance and good luck to you this weekend.
cheers BSB

They're at the bottom of this blog posting.

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Dan, my favorite claiming horse of all time is Sing Because. He ran in and won his last career race on my birthday....and I think he was 10 years old!
Could I see the PP's for Sing Because? It would mean a lot.
Paseana

Sing Because's past performances are at the bottom of the blog posting.

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Hi Dan,
Always a pleasure to read your articles in DRF. I was talking with a few racetrackers recently and I'm wondering if you could post lifetime pp's for 3 amazing Michael Dickinson horses...Cetewayo, Da Hoss and Business is Booming. I was telling the group about how Cetewayo was I believe claimed for 12k and went on to become a Grade 1 winner and millionaire. How Da Hoss came back to win back to back BC Turfs with I believe no prep race or one prep race. Business is Booming I believe was off 4 years and came back to win 5 straight off the shelf. Just amazing stories!
Thanks Greg

Mr. Dickinson's star horses are available at the bottom of the blog post. 


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Since we have all these congrats juveniles winning can we see Congrats lifetime PP's along with Lookin at Lucky.
CraigJ

They're at the bottom of today's post.

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Waiting for Gordon P to select this week's HandiGambling race.  I suggest something over the weekend.

Best,

Dan

AttachmentSize
VelvetBurning.pdf68.55 KB
Break Up The Game.pdf41.88 KB
Coach Jimi Lee.pdf72.16 KB
GoBold.pdf73.34 KB
Sing Because.pdf62.95 KB
Dickinson.pdf76.38 KB
CongratsLucky.pdf75.56 KB
Rob Anderson More than 1 year ago
Not really a piece of advice, but, I still recall watching the Breeders' Cup many years ago (Afleet's Sprint year?) and Harvey Pack was doing the Expert Handicapper role. Asked for his wagering tip before one of the races, his recommendation was "have you ever been to El Paso?".
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Curt V I know you liked the 9-so did Mickey. Very nice call for both of you. Hope you each cashed big-truly! Besides the Clark, I'm playing a couple of GGF races, and Wasted Tears at Holly. I've had her four times this year-one more win and she'll be a lock for my personal HOY. I have my own HOY poll-based strictly on my bets and bank account-who benefitted me the most. It's a poll that only me and mine care about, but it's a biggie. Good luck to you today.
Laura More than 1 year ago
Don't forget tonight's handicapping chat at Iron Maidens! We'll review graded stakes races from Aqueduct, Churchill and Hollywood Park, including some of the races included in the West Point Thoroughbreds Handicapping Challenge Contest. Place: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/ Time: 11-26-10 at 9:30 PM EST Here's info on the NTRA FREE contest: http://games.ntra.com/home/index/view/MTE= Laura
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Clark What a great race to handicap-eleven horse, eleven graded winners. Logic tells me to skip this race, but hey, what else have I got to spend my money on. Nothing will surprise me in this race, except that I end up winning it. Apart-much hype, but in the end, the odds will be much too short to confirm that he's the new Blame. No thanks, at least for today. Succesful Dan-once again, the odds will be too low for a horse that is (maybe) due for a regression. Of the others I like Redding Colliery and the BSB crush horse-Win Willy. Both are listed at 10-1, but I don't believe either number. I'm going to settle on Colliery-extrememly consistent and should get first run on all the closers. His numbers are as good as any of them, and in fact, better than most . Mickey loves Napravnik-says she's the best female jock in the Country. I think he's right. She'll get the chance to prove it today. ATB on Colliery, with an exacta to Willy and a smaller reverse exacta from Willy to Colliery. Willy will be flying late-may get it all. so I'll put a win saver on him as well. Good luck to all of you today.
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
Blackstone, Not for nothing, but that #9 horse ran 2nd @19-1 & paid $15.60 to place & the winner was out of Leestown, who is the son of the Big SS & the exacta paid $148.........now, only if...........? LOL.......
Molesap More than 1 year ago
HG - Cigar Mile $100 EX 7/3 Musket Man has always been a favorite and I think the 1 mile distance is perfect for him. Bribon will be coming late and there seems to be enough speed here to set him up in a very compettive race.
Patrick More than 1 year ago
BEBC : Steely Ran took it wire-to-wire, in a dismal 112.2. Is the track that slow or was this just a really bad field of horses? I'm hoping for the slow track. Rocco Tiger decided to run with the pace setter and lost it. Then again, if i recall right, both Rocco and your horse had not run beyond 5f. I don't recall Steely Ran stats. I gave your horse the benefit of the doubt from the 'layoff' but that's always a warning sign for me after a good race. So where to now? Maybe a change of venue/distance will help. Any idea of his Beyers? CAPTCHA : painkiller meloppor - You think thats what he needed?
C More than 1 year ago
BSB, That's great, but I'm not sure what you were trying to prove with that. In Bold Chieftain's case, he already showed an ability for grass racing before he tried the synthetic tracks. As I said before, when Santa Anita goes to dirt, you'll find a lot of horses like this who race year-round on a variety of surfaces, winning on each one occasionally.
chicago gerry More than 1 year ago
Dan. Not to beat a dead horse, but just one more comment about the DRF Past Performances Plans. Thinking about comments made by Jim Tully and PGM regarding weekend warriors, and bundling. I am not in marketing, but I would bet the DRf Manhattan marketing guys, could come up with something which have enhanced elements of flexibility and smorgasbord. I mean take Steak n Shake for example. When I order a bowl of chili, what is the first thing out of the mouth of the order taker. Would you like cheese withthat? Yes. (ca ching 25 cents)- Would you like onions with that? Yes. (ca ching-25 cents) Mickey D's. Would you like to super size that? Yes. (ca ching). Medium or Kingsize? Kingsize (ca-ching) And so what is means is, if you did not want to offer out and out a stand alone mix and match, which by the way would be would be the most preferable alternative , one method would be a taking an existing plan, keep the existing features and offering additional mix and match capabilities. For example, lets take the single race card plan for $2.95. Would you like to super size that sir? Yes. OK for $4.55, you get get your Track Specific Single Race Card, plus you get your 5 additional Single Race Down Loads from Any Track, to be used at Anytime within within a 45 day period. You may have up to 2 of these type plans activated at the same time. OK. Thanks. I'll take it! I mean if a mope like me, can come up with some marketing ideas, just think what the big boys at the DRF who are paid to create Markets, could come up with, if they set their minds to it.
PGM More than 1 year ago
Meathead, Prairie Meadows, where Coach Jimi Lee often races, is a far different track from Hawthorne. HAW is a deep and demanding dirt surface. Speed can carry when used properly and when (often ridiculously) the track is frozen, but it's not a carousel. PRM is not as deep, not as demanding, and more speed-friendly. Take a look at CJL's lifetime PPs. Yes, CJL ran the fastest 6F time at HAW (and faster than AP) in December of 2003, but that race was in the dead of winter when even $5K claimers can run 6F in sub 1:11 final race times, and inside speed is golden. So with there being no inside speed bias, and CJL 7-1-2-2 on wet surfaces (the track may have been good, but if there were racing tomorrow that track would be muddy/sloppy), and the final 5-2 odds made this horse unappetizing. Chicago Gerry, I too am someone that is all for making a cafeteria-styled package of racing forms. Excellent idea! Blackstone, Nice saver exacta.