01/15/2010 6:29PM

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Here are the latest Kentucky Derby Futures from Lucky's Las Vegas:

Download LUCKY'SDERBYODDSJAN10

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Speaking of the Derby Trail (Cliff's Edge), what ever happened to Hull?
Kat

I wrote the good folks at Team Valor a note and Barry Irwin graciously sent me this update on last year's Derby Trial hero:

"Hi, Dan.
Hull suffered from bone bruising last season after his weaker than expected run in the race on the Belmont undercard.
He was sent to KESMARC (Kentucky Equine Sports Medicine and Rehabilitation Center) for several months.
The colt returned to training in late November. We hope to have him ready for a run towards the end of the Fair Grounds meet and ready for his first true test at 4 during Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs.
He is training with Dale Romans at Fair Grounds and is galloping at present.
Best regards,
Barry"

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In sadly noting that my horse-to-watch DISCONTENT had to be euthanized after suffering an injury on Sunday, I wondered if anyone knows what happened to either GO SMARTY GO or SPRINGSIDE, both of whom showed promise last year before being severely injured (the former was 1-1 lifetime and the latter broke down galloping out after winning the '08 Demoiselle). Did either survive?
Kyri

I believe that both horses survived their injuries.  I found this tidbit on Go Smarty Go at the following link:

https://www.purethoughtshorserescue.com/ottbdivision/gosmartygo.php

Both horses can be found on the "retired" section of our Disabled List, located on the right hand side of the blog.  The FormBlog Disabled List (2008-2010) features over 1800 names of horses that are either currently injured, retired, deceased, or horses that have returned from injury to race again. 

The progress of injured horses still in training (color-coded red) can be followed on the Disabled List as workouts and future racing goals are updated.

Horses listed under "Deletions" (color-coded green) are runners that have returned from injury to race again.  You can access the results of their first race back on the Disabled List.

Retired horses are color-coded blue while Deceased thoroughbreds are color-coded yellow.  Horses that are color-coded brown are unaccounted for at the current time.

The best way to search the disabled list is to do a "Find" (either Control-F or Apple-F), and type the name of the runner you're looking for. 


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I was wondering if you could please post the PP's of the greatest Nebraska bred of all time: Who Doctor Who
Thanks
Karl

Here's what I have for Who Doctor Who:

Download Who Doctor Who

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i got him both times and have made this horse my longshot Derby horse but worried about the pedigree and getting the 1 1/4. although he is borderline 3 on the doasge and has classic pedigree more son on the damn side, im still a little concerned..wondering if you have seen the horse and what you think of a derby chance..his name is kettle river.. thanks
angman

Kettle River is by Congaree, a Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs, one mile (twice), 1 1/8 miles, and 1 1/4 miles.  The dam, La Grande Mamma (by Compadre), won the Nandi Stakes over the old Woodbine dirt track going six furlongs. 

Kettle River had worked well leading up to his debut try going six furlongs at Saratoga on August 29.  Ten days before the race, he went .04 faster than Hockley, a Harty-trained, Darley-owned juvenile that had finished ahead of Eightyfiveinafifty and Discreetly Mine when second to subsequent Hopeful winner Dublin at the Spa on August 1. 
Perhaps Kettle River didn't appreciate the wet racetrack that day as he was outrun in the early stages, made a brief rally in upper stretch, and faded during the final eighth behind an impressive Bob Baffert-trained debut winner, Bulldogger. 

Harty shipped Kettle River to Hollywood for a maiden special weight on the grass at 1 1/16 miles, and Kettle River was more aggressive coming out of the gate.  He pressed the 70-1 longshot pacesetter, took over in upper stretch, and kept on in professional manner.  It can be argued that the early fractions weren't very taxing, and the competition wasn't very good, but Kettle River did finish up the right way.

Kettle River tried synthetics for the first time in an entry-level allowance race at Santa Anita on January 6 at 1 1/16 miles.  Like his maiden win, I couldn't find anything wrong with his race.  He professionally rated inside down the backstretch, willingly picked up the loose pacesetter on the turn, and dug in nicely to win. 

It's very hard to discuss the chances of Derby prospects at this time of year, especially ones that have yet to race on fast dirt.  Kettle River may have some distance limitations down the road, but he hasn't shown any fatigue in the stretch of his two-turn races just yet.  He doesn't have much early speed (the only time he was close to the pace was in a race that featured a 49 half mile), and I wonder if he's going to be more of a turf/synthetic horse down the road.  Still, there are certainly worse longshot Derby horses out there.  An interesting sleeper.

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Dan - I see a horse named Black Hills won a stake at Sunland on Saturday.  If memory serves, a horse named Black Hills broke down in the 1959 Belmont (Eddie Arcaro up?) and was euthanized.  Is it acceptable to give a horse the same name as a notable old-timer?  Can a clown name his 2 Y.O. Secretariat or Smarty Jones?  What's the deal?
Zan the Man

From the Jockey Club rulebook:
F. The following classes of names are not eligible for use:
1. Names consisting of more than 18 letters (spaces and punctuation marks count as letters);
2. Names consisting entirely of initials such as C.O.D., F.O.B., etc.;
3. Names ending in "filly," "colt," "stud," "mare," "stallion," or any similar horse-related term;
4. Names consisting entirely of numbers. Numbers above thirty may be used if they are spelled out;
5. Names ending with a numerical designation such as "2nd" or "3rd," whether or not such a designation is spelled out;
6. Names of living persons unless written permission to use their name is on file with The Jockey Club;
7. Names of persons no longer living unless approval is granted by The Jockey Club based upon a satisfactory written explanation submitted to the Registrar;
8. Names of racetracks or graded stakes races;
9. Names clearly having commercial, artistic or creative significance;
10. Names that are suggestive or have a vulgar or obscene meaning; names considered in poor taste; or names that may be offensive to religious, political or ethnic groups;
11. Names that appear to be designed to harass, humiliate or disparage a specific individual, group of individuals or entity;
12. Names that are currently active either in racing or breeding (see Rule6(E));
13. Names of winners in the past 25 years of grade one stakes races;
14. Permanent names. The list of criteria to establish a permanent name is as follows:
a. Horses in racing's Hall of Fame;
b. Horses that have been voted Horse of the Year;
c. Horses that have won an Eclipse Award;
d. Horses that have won a Sovereign Award (Canadian Champions);
e. Annual leading sire and broodmare sire by progeny earnings;
f. Cumulative money winners of $2 million or more;
g. Horses that have won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Belmont Stakes, The Jockey Club Gold Cup, the Breeders' Cup Classic or the Breeders' Cup Turf; and
h. Horses included in the International List of Protected Names.
15. Names similar in spelling or pronunciation to the classes of names listed in Rule 6(F) 6 - 14 above.
G. In addition to the provisions of this Rule 6, the Registrar of The Jockey Club reserves the right of approval on all name requests.
David H.

Zan the Man
I noticed in the Hollywood Park workouts listed today:
Silverbulletday (2007) 3F 0:35.20 Handily, it was a bullet work
...and I thought the same, Huh?
Isn't Silverbulletday the Champion 2 yo and 3 yo filly
Inducted in the Hall of Fame in 2009 ?
I'll have to check out the jockeyclub link Ray noted, to see if her name is/was protected.
SR Vegas

Silverbulletday (2007) is the notation for an unnamed work horse.  In a case like this, the horse's workout is recorded under the dam's name followed by the foal's year of birth. The horse that worked 3F in 35.20H at Hollywood Park on January 12 is a three-year-old filly by Elusive Quality out of champion Silverbulletday.

I'm not sure whether naming another Black Hills is completely appropriate but it's certainly legal and tender when looking at the above rules.

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Who's better?
CIGAR'S pp's to FORMAL GOLD and GHOSTZAPPER
Mickey

You can't really compare them unless they race against one another.  When Cigar was in his absolute prime, it was inconceivable that he could lose.  He was that dominant. 
Ghostzapper didn't have the longevity of Cigar, but his brilliance and versatility were out of this world. Formal Gold, on his best day, was one of the fastest horses we've seen in the last 20 years.


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Dan, will you post Cigar's 16 race win streak Beyers alongside the Beyers earned from the same races in 1997?  I don't think a 16 race steak would have been possible for any horse if they had to run in 1997.  Will you also post the Beyers from G1 main track races at 1 and 1/8 miles or more run in 1997?
Captain Bodgit


Cigar's Streak:

1.  'n2x' Aqueduct - 104
2.  NYRA Mile - 115
3.  'n4x' Gulfstream - 108
4.  Donn Handicap - 114
5.  Gulfstream Park Handicap - 116
6.  Oaklawn Handicap - 121
7.  Pimlico Special - 114
8.  Massachusetts Handicap - 117
9.  Hollywood Gold Cup - 118
10. Woodward Stakes - 111
11. Jockey Club Gold Cup - 111
12. Breeders Cup Classic - 117
13. Donn Handicap - 117
14. Dubai World Cup (N/A)
15. Massachusetts Handicap - 112
16. Citation Challenge - 117

Comparable Races from 1997:

1.  N/A
2.  109
3.  N/A
4.  114
5.  118
6.  114
7.  126
8.  122
9.  121
10. 125
11. 116
12. 120
13. See #4
14. N/A
15. See #8
16. N/A


1997 Grade 1 Dirt Beyers 1 1/8 miles and up (100 and up):

Whitney - 126
Pimlico Special - 126
Woodward - 125
Pacific Classic - 121
Hollywood Gold Cup - 121
Santa Anita Handicap - 120
Breeders' Cup Classic - 120
Gulfstream Park Handicap - 118
Preakness - 118
Jockey Club Gold Cup - 116
Kentucky Derby - 115
Haskell - 114
Oaklawn - 114
Donn - 114
Super Derby - 111
Santa Anita Derby - 110
Belmont - 110
Vanity - 110
Travers - 110
Strub - 108
Breeders' Cup Distaff - 108
Alabama - 107
John A. Morris - 105
Go for Wand - 105
Beldame - 105
Florida Derby - 104
Kentucky Oaks - 104
Coaching Club American Oaks - 102
Santa Margarita - 102
Mother Goose - 101


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Interesting price for Bon Jovi Girl at auction.  Could you put up the PP's for her and also some bloodline info,  just so we can see what a million $$ will get you these days, 
thanks Dan Da Man.
primo


Here are here lifetime past performances:

Download Bon Jovi Girl

The fascinating thing about Bon Jovi Girl is that she has never raced on grass despite being a half-sister to Gio Ponti (four Grade 1 wins between one mile and 10 furlongs on turf in 2010).  Her three-quarter brother,  Fisher Pond, won the off-the-turf Lawrence Realization Handicap at 12 furlongs. 
Bon Jovi Girl's dam earned her blacktype when third in the Azalea Handicap going one mile on turf at Remington Park.  The second dam, Salt Spring (by Salt Marsh), won the Grade 3 Yerba Buena Handicap at 1 1/2 miles on grass. 
While she has certainly run well on the main track, expect Bon Jovi Girl to race on grass as she has been turned over to trainer Bill Mott.

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Dan,
Alexander DeRosa won the 8th at Aqueduct today (an N1x) with Sawtooth Mountain, in what appeared to be his very first race as a trainer (he claimed the horse from Pletcher for $25k).
Do you know how many times that has happened - a trainer winning his debut?
Thanks,
Brian

This was DeRosa's first starter since 2003.  He had 38 starts that year.  I'm not sure how many times a new trainer won his very first start.

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Dan
If you wouldn't mind, I would like to hear your reasoning for your HG wager yesterday.  You someimes will make a WP wager on your pick: yesterday, of course, you scrapped the place bet and replaced it with three exactas-your prime pick in the two hole on each one.  I'm curious why you selected this method over a WP wager
Question for bloggers, or Dan:
Peppi Knows, my magical MKB horse, has three different trainers in three different states.  Why would that be?  Is it because each of them has a license for only one state? 
blackstone

I don't think I was doing anything especially clever.  I essentially traded in the place saver bet with the multiple exactas using the "Key" in the second spot.  I thought it was a pretty contentious race and, with a price horse on top, figured there could be some value in the exotics.  Since I was willing to include four horses with the key, I figured to go for the exacta.  I felt I had enough coverage.  If one of the also-rans I didn't like won, I felt I didn't deserve to cash. 
Of course, the point became moot when the key ran evenly. 

Peppi Knows had all kinds of licensing issues the last time he was scheduled to race in New York.  The trainer of record at that time, Tim Kreiser, failed to purchase workers' compensation by race day. 

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Hi Dan.  just one question.
Is the trainer at Gulfstream
park Laura Posada, Jorge Posada's wife?
Henry B

New York Yankee Jorge Posada's wife's name is Laura Posada, but it's not the trainer.

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Some quick picks this weekend:

Evening Attire (Aqu):  Well Positioned (chalk city)
San Fernando (SA):  Rendezvous
Marshuas River (GP):  Lomaki

More importantly, who do you like this weekend?  I want to know.

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Back Tuesday with more.

Enjoy the weekend.

Dan





Alfredo More than 1 year ago
HandyG 169 What a well bred turf bunch of maidens! I’m isolating on #10 Alcomatch as my top horse. Christophe Clement excels with all thing turf. One of my seldom used angles can be implemented here also. This is certainly not an original but I can’t recall who to credit…….probably Mark Cramer. The angle is to play every mount that the Kentucky Derby winning jock has immediately after his first Saturday in May win. The logic is: the day after the Derby win the jock is very much in the zone. So how does that angle come into play here? My assumption will be that Leparoux is in the zone today after being awarded the Eclipse Award Monday night. I will make him the key in some supers. Richard Dutrow should have #6 One Sky ready to roll. His two efforts over the sod have been solid. Dutrow horses can seldom be thrown out so Leparoux in his zone will have to share the top spots on some tickets with #6. I respect the connections of #9 Bigshot and #5 Rock America and will use them to fill out the exotic. #3 Parthian has finished third six times in nine outings. This is probably a tougher bunch than he faced in races in DEL so he gets the four hole on some ticket. $5 Supers 10 / 5, 6, 9 / 5, 6, 9 / 3, 5, 6, 9 $3 Super 6, 10 / 6, 10 / 3, 5, 9 / 3, 5, 9
Ron Zuercher More than 1 year ago
HG 169 $50 show #9 $50 exacta 9-6 Going with horses with some form.
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
So Santa Anita is now considering a return to dirt: If they actually do return to dirt, perhaps they should pay a visit to Aqueduct and install what essentially is the inner track to replace the pro-ride at Santa Anita, as that is considered from what I remembered to be the safest of the surfaces in New York (I have said before one thing I would consider at the Big A is to move what is the current inner track surface to the main track, which would allow the current inner track to go back to being a turf course as it was originally). Whatever is done however, they need to make it a deep enough surface, more like the eastern tracks to handle the kind of rain Arcadia can get in the winter months (and that we are seeing this week there, with rain in some cases expected to be as much as ONE YARD by the time these storms end late this week). As for Rachel, her being HOY I think sent a message to Zenyatta's camp that they needed to come east (and I mean to New York) and face Rachel on dirt. Their failure to come east for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, even without Rachel in it but where Zenyatta would have had to face Quality Road and Summer Bird on their surface (even a sloppy one) might very well have made the difference in winning and losing HOY for 2009 to Rachel. And as said in the Crist blog (where this was originally written for), I suspect as soon as NBC finally does finish with the Leno-Conan mess and gets their post-Olympics prime time schedule in order, NBC-Universal Chairman Jeff Zucker will be looking to pull all the stops to have Rachel and Zenyatta meet at Churchill Downs during a Derby week that I think still may very well include the first-ever Kentucky Derby at night, airing May 1 on NBC from 8:00-10:00 PM ET/5:00-7:00 PM PT (with a 9:25 PM ET post for the Derby if so). If that happens, I could see three scenarios for a Rachel-Zenyatta showdown on NBC: Such a meeting by itself in the either the Louisville Stakes or perhaps against the boys (perhaps moving the Stephen Foster up to Derby week?) on Wednesday, April 28 at 9:00 PM ET/6:00 PM PT (post time: 9:40 PM ET) or Thursday, April 29 at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT (post time: 10:40 PM ET). As part of a special prime time telecast of the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, April 30 at 9:30 PM ET/6:30 PM PT (post time for the Oaks: 9:55 PM ET with the Rachel-Zenyatta showdown scheduled for 10:35 PM ET). In the race immediately before the Derby on Saturday, May 1 (with post time at 8:25 PM ET and the Derby post pushed back to 9:55 PM ET and the telecast running from 8:00-10:30 PM ET). Of these scenarios, the Thursday one is the least likely. NBC is trying to rebuild their 10:00 PM ET/PT dramas after the Leno-Conan mess so pre-emptions (or even repeats) would hurt NBC coming off the Olympics. Wednesday night (April 28) would be very doable for NBC because NBC currently has repeats of Law & Order spinoff Special Victims Unit scheduled for 9:00 PM ET/PT on Wednesdays, mainly because NBC knows they have extremely stiff competition that night between ABC's comedy pairing of Modern Family and Cougar Town plus Criminal Minds on CBS and of course the big one, American Idol on FOX. A Rachel-Zenyatta showdown in the 9:00 PM ET Wednesday slot on April 28 may very well be one of the few items NBC can get a decent rating with going against on the other networks. Friday night (April 30) would work because NBC can pair a Rachel-Zenyatta showdown with the Kentucky Oaks, as each of those races would bring enough viewers with them to make a prime time telecast work, especially on a night NBC is practically giving up on otherwise. Add a Rachel-Zenyatta showdown to a prime time Derby telecast and you may be looking at ratings in the 14-16 range, which would be the highest in forever. If that happened and in prime time, Zucker and NBC Entertainment Head Jeff Gaspin would be doing cartwheels if it qualified for the prime time ratings. It will be very interesting to see if NBC tries to orchestrate a Rachel-Zenyatta showdown sometime on Derby week if not on Derby Day/Night itself.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Laura, LAURA RACHEL is running in the 9th at OP on Thursday! Hmmm Annie
Dick W More than 1 year ago
Van Savant Congratulations on your 'rare' day. I am not surprised, however, since you have repeatedly demonstrated your superior handicapping abilities and discipline in both the HG exercises and in your other posts regarding your picks and plays. And now you've done it again...a $43 exacta, a $73.00 win and an $11.80 win in succession. Of course, I don't know how much you bet, but that doesn't really matter. That is some fine handicapping. Your consistenvy amazes me ! Dick W
billg More than 1 year ago
Uncle Steve, Thanks for the turf stats. Much Obliged. Caseyjeaux, Take this for what its worth, but I've heard that a reason for the slow times at Oaklawn is that the track is very deep this time of year and as the weather warms the track will harden and times will quicken. Annie, As Queen of MKB I don't think my horse, Uh Oh Bango, has even worked in quite a while. If he is off the trail is Pleasant Storm available?
blackstone More than 1 year ago
Whacky What do I think of Chantal? As a talent? Oh, I don't know, fair to middlin I guess. Gotcha! Actually, I know the line is very long, but I might be in love again. I'll tell you what son, you lead and I'll happily follow. I'm going to the races at GGF this Saturday-1st time in over five months. I'll probably get to meet Kayla. I hope she can stand the excitement. She has four mounts, so after meeting her in the Winners Circle four times, we'll probably be buds. Semi-wealthy buds, too! Keep the faith, Whacky. I will too.
C More than 1 year ago
Kyri, The Breeders Cup only started using the "World Thoroughbred Championship" line a few years ago. Prior to that, it was simply a showcase day of important, but not necessarily Eclipse-deciding, races. True, most Eclipse winners happened to run in the Breeders Cup, but not always. The idea that the Breeders Cup is similar to the Super Bowl or World Series is wrong because horseracing is not set up like those sports. There's no playoff eliminations or organized regular season. Yes, some races are better than others, but there isn't even a point system or anything like that. Horseracing is a different game. Suppose Zenyatta only raced (and won) the Classic. Say she was 1-for-1 in 2009, but her 1 win was in the "Super Bowl". Do you feel she should still be HoY because she won the 1 championship race, but didn't run in anything else? Mickey, There were TWO undefeated fillies this year, not one. One was 5-for-5, the other 8-for-8. The Breeders Cup Classic is still a single race. It was a great performance over an OK field on a surface that, quite frankly, not a single dirt horse lifted a hoof over for the last 2 Cups. You wonder if Rachel could beat Life is Sweet... I wonder if Life is Sweet could beat Music Note on a dirt track. I'm not certain that she could. And as far as Macho Again goes, do I have to remind you that Zenyatta needed every inch of the stretch to nose out Anabaa's Creation... a filly who is winless since 2006? Have you ever heard the phrase about stones and glass houses? RayG, That looks like total nonsense to me... just like the "insider" who leaked the wrong HoY winner a few days ago. You can't believe everything you hear/read.
Joe L More than 1 year ago
Dan now that horse of the year has been settled and the talk will be about those two fine fillys meeting, I propose they race on the 29th of August at that special venue, Saratoga in the Personal Ensign...I think the race is a perfect fit, a one and a quarter mile race on the dirt...being late in August I don't think the heat from the summer will be a bother to either horse, and what is a better venue?
BigEasyBigChok More than 1 year ago
Annie, Of course. We got Mojo down here that will make scurvy earlier vikings had to deal with look like a common cold (and I am not referring to our women) Whacky, Bayou Boy??? Your QB was born in MIss so crick boy is more like it. ( Any body but Favre as he is one of my all time favs) BEBC