07/02/2008 5:12PM

Tom Fool, Dutrow, Levine, AP maidens, etc.

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Per bloodhorse.com...All of Levine's horses tested at Monmouth, where he is something like 49%, came back negative. To be fair, he's not claiming for 5k and winning for 25k, but rather taking a 30-40k horse in NY and winning for 16-20k in NJ. Without going back over everything, I'd say the vast majority of those wins are favorites, many less than even money, so there aren't too many ridiculous form reversals.
Greg


Interesting stat alert.  Levine is 29-59 at the current Monmouth meeting.  Thirty-one of those starters were the betting favorite, and the barn has scored with twenty of those runners (65%, $2.41 ROI).  Forty-five of the fifty-nine starters were sent off at odds of 3-1 or less.  On the surface, it looks like a simple case of a horseman finding great spots in the condition book for his 'A' stock.

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How was Rose up on the high beyer?  I thought he was suspended for a month.
BPM


The race was run last Monday, the day of the whip incident.

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Dan -
I have been receiving workout notices for Point Determined & Lawyer Ron...are they making comebacks or do they have unnamed offspring posting workouts under their names????
Would be interesting to see the Lawyer make a comeback.
Supah Blitz


I'm guessing the Lawyer Ron notifications are mistakes.  The Lawyer entered stud this year at Stonewall Farms in Kentucky for a $30,000 stud fee.  He doesn't have any foals out yet.  Point Determined shows several workouts at Calder, and it's possible that the 2006 Affirmed (Grade 3) winner is making a comeback (didn't run in 2007). 

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Dan,
As you have noted, the developments over the past few days - the loss of Heatseeker and a lackluster Suburban - does not get the heart pumping in anticipation of future races such as the Whitney or Pacific Classic. Are there any potential understudies lurking in the shadows? Have you heard anything regarding the whereabouts of Asiatic Boy(injured?) or Godolphin's Jalil?
Gorgeous Georgie


Jalil is working at Keeneland in preparation for his North American debut.  Haven't heard much from Asiatic Boy, and I'd say he's doubtful for an American campaign.  Perhaps Divine Park and Giant Gizmo can move up the ranks of the division, and it certainly would be interesting if Zenyatta tries the boys down the road, but don't be surprised if Aidan O'Brien sends one of his interesting turf horses to the Classic over Santa Anita's cushion track.


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...Dan-since we've gone to Poly it seems like 2yo racing has really improved here at AP, and there are a couple of races I'd like your input on. The 7th race on Thursday is a mile for 2yos I actually have it down to 3 horses: Awesome Richie is (tentatively) my top play. Bernstein offspring tend to love poly, and run well early on poly and at a distance. WALLSTREET GOLD looks like a horse who wants more distance-(seems like trainer was looking all over to find a longer race since he's not a regular here) and GOLDEN CHAPEL is the less regarded (according to the ML) of Pletcher's horses-kinda like Touch Gold as a win early broodmare sire over Hennessy (25% to 5% as a bm sire first out. You're the 2yo guy so any help would be appreciated.
On the 4th, there's actually a 40K mdn claimer for 2yo. What do you think of Countess Katie at a price (Sire is 11% 1sters last 2, but BM sire Flying Chevron is 2 for 4 last 2 years with firsters) and here's where the formulator helps so much-trainer is 3 for 23 past 5 years with 2yo firsters but 2 for 4 when he sends out a 2yo firster for a tag. 10/1 ML but wanted to see if you see anything else of value in the race. Thanks guys for your input
Stephen Taylor


In the fourth race on Thursday, I really like My Pal Richie (the other half of the Awesome Richie entry), a son of first-crop sire Friends Lake that sold for 100K earlier this year (worked a quarter of a mile in 21.40 at the sale) after being auctioned off for 45K as a yearling.  The dam has already foaled stakes-placed sprinter Loveyouintheworld (a three-time winner at two).  The dam (by Afleet) cost $375,000 as a yearling, is a half-sister to stakes-winner Adarling ($71,455, 2yo winner), and Grade 2-placed juvenile router Crown Collection, and is a full sister to stakes-placed sprinter Von Fleet (114K), and stakes-winning router Freedom Fleet (264K).  The second dam, Avowal (by L'enjoleur), was a stakes-winner at two, three, and four, and earned over 470K.  The June 27 workout (4f in 47.60) matches up with trainer Larry Rivelli's juvenile gelding, My Dominick James, a debut winner on June 8 with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure.  The inside post is a bit of a drawback at this one-turn mile, but I think he's pretty quick, and hopefully will be the half of the entry to go.  Also, don't underestimate Becky's Express as the son of Congaree stretches out for his second start for Michael Stidham.
On Friday, I don't have much of an opinion, but I prefer Mommie Whiz for Asmussen.  She's bred both sides for speed, and shows a string of five furlong workouts leading up to her debut.  Wink At Richie and Precious Surprise are the obvious dangers. 

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Dan,
Please comment on this, I played Belmont last Fri. and in the first race Unrequited trained by Dutrow ran unplaced. He ran again on Sun. at Monmouth and I'm almost positive he broke down. I hate this guy, and I don't have anything for anyone in the media who claimed during the TC what a breath of fresh air he was. He and people like him have no business in this sport. Should this kinda stuff be allowed to happen?
Hillbilly


As of right now, it just looks like a terrible coincidence that Dutrow's horse was euthanized at Monmouth at the height of his spat with the media.  Usually, returning a horse on short notice is risky, but Dutrow has good stats with similar horses (5-29 over the last year with horses returning off a week or less rest including two wins by claimers).  Was the horse overworked?  You decide.

May 1 - Finished eighth in optional claimer/n2x at Monmouth
May 23 - Finished fifth in 'n2x' allowance at Monmouth
June 6 - worked 5 furlongs in 1:02.40 at Monmouth
June 13 - worked 3 furlongs in 37 at Monmouth
June 19 - worked 5 furlongs in 1:03.40 at Monmouth
June 25 - worked 3 furlongs in 37.40 at Monmouth
June 27 - finished fourth in 35K claimer at Belmont
June 29 - Broke down in 30K claimer at Monmouth

It's easy to second-guess, but I would doubt that Dutrow would put a dead-lame horse on the track in this situation.  Did the horse have problems?  Probably.  That's why he was in for a tag.  I'm guessing most of the horses in the race had physical issues.  If it was so obvious that the horse was hurt, then why didn't the track vet notice a problem, and scratch the horse before he entered the gate?
It's always a terrible situation when any horse breaks down, and Dutrow isn't going to win any popularity contests on this board, but, in this case at least, he's innocent until proven guilty.

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Dan,
Forgot that state has the jurisdiction over racing so let's replace US with NY or CA regarding the whip rules.
Best,
Arazi.


Here's the New York whip rules from the State Racing and Wagering Board:

(a) No whip shall weigh more than one-half pound. No whip shall be used unless it has affixed to the end a closed popper made of leather or other material approved by the stewards, not less than 1 1/4 inches in width, and not over four inches in length, and be feathered above the popper with not less than three rows of leather or other material approved by the stewards, each feather not less than one inch in length. No whip shall exceed 31 inches in length. All whips are subject to inspection and approval by the stewards.

(b) In all races where a jockey will not ride with a whip, an announcement shall be made over the public address system of such fact.

(c) Although the use of a whip is not required, any jockey who uses a whip during a race is prohibited from whipping a horse:

    (1) on the head, flanks or on any other part of its body other than the shoulders or hind quarters;

    (2) during the post parade or after the race except when necessary to control the horse;

    (3) excessively or brutally causing welts or breaks in the skin;

    (4) when the horse is clearly out of the race or has obtained its maximum placing; or

    (5) persistently even though the horse is showing no response under the whip.

(d) Correct uses of the whip are:

    (1) showing horses the whip before hitting them;

    (2) using the whip in rhythm with the horse's stride; and

    (3) using the whip as an aid to maintain a horse running straight.


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Anybody else have thoughts about the ride Daytona got? (OK, it's four days later, but I'm still puzzled.
He was the fastest horse in the race. He was eager and willing to go by Storm Military. Yet he was rated hard with his neck practically bent in half.
Maybe he bounced off his recent hard races (hopefully nothing worse went wrong) and would have lost anyway, but I have to question the ride. Yeah, it's a route, but maybe the fastest horse in the race should have been allowed to go to the front. Reminds me of the identical odd ride that Dreaming of Anna got 2 back (she was the fastest, was held back and not allowed to take the lead, didn't have enough late).
Kyri


I don't have a problem with either ride you mentioned.  Both horses (Daytona, Dreaming of Anna) were stuck outside the other speed in their respective races.  Storm Military broke very well, and seemed intent on the lead going into the first turn.  Taking into account that Daytona successfully sat in his previous race, the rider probably felt very confident in what was virtually the same spot.  In Dreaming of Anna's case, she drew outside the other speed, and that one seemed intent on the lead.  Although 'Anna' is much better when allowed to dictate instead of chase, her jock probably didn't want to get embroiled in a pace battle when she could comfortably sit close to the pace.

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Why is Dreaming of Anna not in the Cash Call? Catalono while successful with her and others doesn't normally have G1 type horses yet he hasn't sent her out against the big guns in the division. Seems like a 750K purse would be a strong incentive. Is he going to try polytrack and push her into the BC Distaff?
Cannibal


Dreaming of Anna will stay home, and train up to the Beverly D. at Arlington on August 9.

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What does Stardom Bound's race have to do with Cosmic Queen? It kind of sounds like we should be looking out for this Stardom Bound. There must be some sort of expectations attached to her.
Annie


Here is what Brad Free wrote in his June 30 column on the site:

"As impressive as Cosmic Queen was in her debut, trainer Chris Paasch might have one better.Jockey Mike Smith did not believe it until he worked Stardom Bound. After the workout, Smith said to Paasch, "You might be right." Stardom Bound cut her left rear leg and scratched from race 8 Wednesday. The gray Tapit filly will be live when she runs opening week at Del Mar."
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Back tomorrow with some picks for the Fourth.

Take care,

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His trainer, the late, Great (Hall of Famer) Laz Barrera made the 'quick-turnaround' move famous, and his victory with Cielo in the Belmont is still enough to get through at least a pint of suds with your favorite racing buds. I'll bet Dan can confirm that. Conquistidor Cielo's victory is Triple Crown lore.
slew

Woody Stephens trained Conquistador Cielo, and he wheeled the colt right back to win the Belmont after taking the Met Mile days before.

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For all you contest fans, the Breeders' Cup is launching a "Fantasy Challenge."  Here's the press release:

BREEDERS’ CUP LAUNCHES THE BREEDERS’ CUP FANTASY CHALLENGE; GIVES FANTASY SPORTS ENTHUSIASTS A SHOT AT $1 MILLION

NEW YORK (June 24, 2008) -- The Breeders’ Cup announced today the launch of its first fantasy sports game, the Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Challenge. The Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Challenge will coincide with the Breeders’ Cup Challenge that begins on July 5. Fantasy sports participants and horseracing fans will have an opportunity to win a $10,000 grand prize. The top three winners will get a free trip to Las Vegas and make up “Team Breeders’ Cup” at the Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship in Las Vegas for the chance to play for a $1 million purse.  Fantasy sports enthusiasts can register to play by visiting:
http://www.breederscup.com/bcfantasychallenge

“Many horseracing fans play fantasy sports with multiple teams in a variety of sports.  The Breeders’ Cup Challenge, which consists of 56 races from July to October is a perfect fantasy sports platform for the sport of horseracing,” said Peter Land, Chief Marketing Officer for the Breeders’ Cup.

The Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Challenge will follow the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series beginning with the first two Challenge races on July 5 at Monmouth Park with the Salvator Mile and the United Nations and conclude with the final Breeders’ Cup Challenge race, the J.P Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes on October 9 at Keeneland racetrack.  Players choose horses that are racing in Breeders’ Cup Challenge events to win or place and accrue points in the Fantasy Challenge based on their horse’s success.

The overall points leader in the month of July will win a trip to Emerald Downs in Auburn, WA for the Longacres Mile (Aug. 17), a qualifier for the Dirt Mile at the Breeders’ Cup World Championships Oct. 24-25 at Santa Anita Park.  The overall points leader for August will win an all expense paid trip to Woodbine Racetrack in Toronto a major Breeders’ Cup Challenge event (Oct.4),.

The Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Challenge will be supported with an interactive advertising campaign on sports sites and fantasy sports sites.  To learn more about the Breeders’ Cup Fantasy Challenge visit www.breederscup.com 

Dan