08/10/2011 4:44PM

Tizway, Flat Out, Promising Babies

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TIZWAY cemented himself at the top of the handicap division with a nice victory in the historic Whitney Handicap at Saratoga.  Prominent throughout, Tizway struck the front in the stretch and held off the solid late rally of Flat Out despite hopping back to his wrong lead in the final strides. 

Although Tizway has come to hand in his last two races, I'm still skeptical about his ability to handle 1 1/4 miles.  Flat Out, on the other hand, seems to appreciate the layout of Belmont Park and should prove a dangerous contender in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont.

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Joe Bravo gave a wonderful ride on SEAN AVERY in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt Handicap, yet another exciting race from a tough sprint division.  Sensing that the front was the place to be, Bravo gunned Sean Avery to the front, crossed over to the inside and took them gate to wire over a game and determined Trappe Shot.  Sean Avery matched the 112 Beyer that he earned at Monmouth three back, but one must wonder if he will regress next time (as he did after earning his first triple-digit Beyer). 

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CALEB'S POSSE will likely be a price once again when he tackles tougher competition in the Grade 1 King's Bishop, but he may be worth a look after he stormed down the crown of the track to win the Grade 2 Amsterdam.  Caleb's Posse had been plying his trade going longer with mixed success, but he's much more comfortable at shorter distances.  He would benefit from a possible pace meltdown in the King's Bishop.

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CURRENCY SWAP, a $42,000 weanling that resold for $70,000 last year (a $92,000 RNA earlier in 2011), put on a nice show in his career debut at Saratoga on Whitney afternoon, winning off by six lengths with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure.  The bay son of High Cotton (won Grade 3 Northern Dancer going 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs) is out of a full sister to multiple stakes-winner Your Bluffing (55-16-10-4, $542,031).  The dam is also a half-sister to stakes-placed sprinter Yachats and Grade 2-placed router Nacho Friend. 
Trained by Terri Pompay, Currency Swap may be headed to the Grade 1 Hopeful, where he may face Todd Pletcher's Sanford winner, OVERDRIVEN.

On the West Coast, CREATIVE CAUSE proved his debut win at Hollywood Park was no fluke by taking the Grade 2 Best Pal over the Del Mar polytrack.  Creative Cause dropped 10 Beyer points -  to an 88 - in the Best Pal, but he was extremely professional, impressively rating off the pace before cruising by in the stretch.  He is bred to stretch out and looks like a major player in the juvenile races later in the year.

An early "under the radar" juvenile may be HUNT CROSSING, a Todd Pletcher-trained son of Corinthian that won first-out at Saratoga on August 3 with an 87 Beyer.  Hunt Crossing, a $260,000 weanling, $275,000 yearling RNA, $150,000 yearling and $285,000 juvenile RNA, is out of stakes-winning sprinter Silver Lace and may prove to be a stakes horse down the road.

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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from July 25 to July 31:

1.  STAY THIRSTY - 106 - Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
2.  EUROEARS - 105 - Bing Crosby Stakes (G1) - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar
3.  FORCE FREEZE - 101 - Teddy Drone Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
3.  J C'S PRIDE - 101 - Md Sp Wt 51k - 5 Furlongs - Saratoga
3.  TURBO COMPRESSOR - 101 - Curlin Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
6.  OMI'S VINDICATION - 100 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
6.  POSEIDON'S WARRIOR - 100 - East Hanover Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
6.  SIDNEY'S CANDY - 100 - Fourstardave Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga
9.  BOURBON BAY - 99 - Cougar II Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Polytrack) - Del Mar
9.  ICABAD CRANE - 99 - Evan Shipman Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
9.  JEALOUS GIRL - 99 - Femme Fatale Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
12. ASK THE MOON - 98 - Ruffian Invitational Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
12. QUIET GIANT - 98 - Lady's Secret Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Monmouth
12. ZAGORA (FR) - 98 - Diana Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga
15. BATTLE OF LOVE - 97 - Three Ring Stakes - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Calder
15. CONVOCATION - 97 - OC 75k/N3X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
15. THIRD CHANCE - 97 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Arlington
15. TRES BORRACHOS - 97 - San Diego Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Del Mar
19. BOLD RECRUIT - 96 - Alw 28000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Louisiana Downs
19. COIL - 96 - Haskell Invitational (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Monmouth
19. ROMACACA - 96 - Matchmaker Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Monmouth
19. SOARING EMPIRE - 96 - Majestic Light Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Monmouth
23. CALIMONCO - 95 - Wickerr Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Del Mar
23. DARK THUNDER - 95 - OC 75k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - Saratoga
23. WARNING SONG - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - Del Mar
23. WINTER MEMORIES - 95 - Lake George Stakes (G2) - Saratoga

Stay Thirsty's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Here are the top 25 Winning Beyer Speed Figures from August 1 to August 8:

1.  SEAN AVERY - 112 - Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) - 6 Furlongs - Saratoga
2.  TIZWAY - 111 - Whitney Invitational Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
3.  CALEB'S POSSE - 105 - Amsterdam Stakes (G2) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Saratoga
4.  RULE - 104 - Birdstone Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Saratoga
5.  BUFFUM - 103 - Alw 54000N1X - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga
5.  JOE HOLLYWOOD - 103 -  Alw 50000N1X - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
5.  TURBULENT DESCENT - 103 - Test Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga
8.  COURTSIDE - 102 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar
9.  TAR HEEL MOM - 101 - Honorable Miss Handicap (G2) - 6 Furlongs - Saratoga
10. CHIPSHOT - 100 - Select Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
11. BLACK DIAMOND CAT - 99 - Major Moran Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
12. PRAYER FOR RELIEF - 98 - West Virginia Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Mountaineer
12. CURRENCY SWAP - 98 - Md Sp Wt 54k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Saratoga
14. OUR NAUTIQUE (NZ) - 97 - Joseph T. Grace Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Santa Rosa
14. HIGHER COURT - 96 - OC 35k/N1X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Saratoga
16. IBBOYEE - 96 - John Morrissey Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Saratoga
16. MEISTERSINGER - 96 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Delaware
18. WILBURN - 95 - OC 35k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Monmouth
19. IMMORTAL EYES - 94 - West Virginia Legislature Chairman's Cup - 4 1/2 Furlongs - Charles Town
19. MUSICAL ROMANCE - 94 - Barb's Dancer Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
19. NOT ABROAD - 94 - Alw 50000N2X - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Parx
19. SANGRAS (GER) - 94 - John's Call Stakes - 1 5/8 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga
19. ULTRA BLEND - 94 - Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Del Mar
24. D'WILD RIDE - 93 - West Virginia Secretary of State Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Mountaineer
24. GYPSY RING - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Woodbine
24. JU JITSU JAX - 93 - My Frenchman Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Monmouth
24. MYSTIC - 93 - West Virginia House of Delegates Speaker's Cup - 1 Mile 70 Yards (Turf) - Mountaineer

Sean Avery's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Again, I want to thank everyone for their patience as I've fallen behind my blog duties due to my Saratoga commitments. 

***

Congrats to whackymacky for finishing first in out Whitney HandiGambling exercise.  This week's race will be the Grade 1 Beverly D. from Arlington. 

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
 
Best of luck to all

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Stay Thirsty.pdf78.77 KB
Sean Avery.pdf616.02 KB
BeverlyD.pdf185.51 KB
Mr. Chubby More than 1 year ago
HG Beverly D $100 ex 1/11 At her best Stacelita is simply superior to anything in this field. I also really like Never Retreat. She's an honest mare with a nose for the wire, and Team Block has had so much success on the Arlington lawn. She's also versatile allowing Bridgmohan to sit close to a slow pace or settle back if a pace battle develops. We had a good, hard rain tonight so I'd expect good turf or softer tomorrow. (I'm about 30 miles west of Arlington.) This shouldn't be a factor for most of the field. Good luck all!!!
Dick W More than 1 year ago
HG - Beverly D. I'm on the road and don't have much time. So I like 3 Fantasia and 11 Never Retreat: $50 ex box 3,11 Good luck to all. !!! Dick W
Marc More than 1 year ago
Dan, can I get the pp's for brown bess, Sunday silence Spend a buck, proper reality & event of the year? Thanks!!
Laura More than 1 year ago
Thanks everyone for joining chat! We had lots of good 'capping and I really enjoyed our discussion of handicapping, contests and money management. Jonah has really impressed me with how much he's learned in such a short time. Keep it up and GL in today's contest! Have confidence in your abilities and keep repeating "This is fun!" Unfortunately, there's no chat history this week. The chat log is a jumbled mess and I need to talk with the techie people who installed the room. Our next chat will be August 26. We'll discuss the Travers, King's Bishop, Personal Ensign, Pacific Classic and all the other graded races. By then the room should be tweeked...unless I break it again, LOL. Laura PS - ANNIE!! We missed you!
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
Del Mar 8-13-11 saturday R1 #3 Gilligan seems to be the one to beat and gets better with each race moves up a notch which may put out the fire somewhat talamo puts him on the engine and beat if you can #1 Dixie Trouper stretches out today and he seems to need a longer race hasnt won in two years so think the lower spots may be best bet for this ridgling #5 Racketeer a closer type who I think pedroza moves much sooner with him than last effort no wins last two years so use on bottom of tickets trainer is 21% off claims #7 Fog Alert dropping off layoff for sherman may be the ticket for this one has beat better in early part of year will be making his run late stretch R2 #9 Irenes Jackpot back after a couple off returns for same level a plus this filly seems to run best on the grass with a win at Tup and a strong showing in last effort with much trouble #4 Secret Cove been on shelf for 4 months gets back to turf today where she has shown speed early on runs well at this level so expect a good effort today #3 Cactus Jane her first try on grass she got the win with talamo up and today gets bejarano to ride cutting back to mile having made up a lot of real estate in last race look for a late run in the lane #7 Lemon Drop Ridge goes to espinoza today this one rarely throws in a bad race so think she will be rolling late for her best try does stay in touch with the front runners though so a quicker run might be her best run today R5 #1 Moment of Weakness (IRE) drops out of those tough stakes races for this one today and gets rail riding smith to navigate looks like he will win for fun here #3 Aqua Fever is going to try the mile once more having come up short in first try think maldonato saves some for the late stages of this but would use on lower tiers of ticket #4 Nahem working good for comeback run after weakening in last two races going longer this just might be the distance he wants for best race has a win and place at this distance #7 Dr Green (IRE) blinkers might be the best prescription for this gelding after three very bad races for cassidy picks up stra for the race so will have odds for sure and the mile may well be his best distance R6 #1 Me Salty one of two droppers I like in this race delgadillo is two for four in the exacta so think this one only needs to show best foot to get the win here #7 Danzing Tribal had tightner in last run baze takes the call for lewis gets off the grass for this run today where trainer has had no success with that move 0 for 12s so use accordingly #5 Naturaliste like the way he stayed in the race last and pulled clear in late stages a sign of better things to come a win candidate here with bejarano up #9 Gold Star santiago back with this one having two seconds with him last year coming from the fair circuit and is two for two at this track a must use today R7 #3 Achak (IRE) stretches some today where he has won three for five at this distance is going to make one big run late stretch not for the weak at heart for sure although may be closer than last with talamo in the saddle 1 Jaycito may be a late scratch today cant figure why he is in this one being far the best one signed up having run against some very tough horses of late been off since march so may need one for best effort #1a Eye On Jacob a speed type who always gives a good accounting of himself stretches out and may be a little short here at this distance will lead the way to the top of the lane #9 Great Warrior (BRZ) takes his game to the dirt where he has limited tries like his closing style and with the speed signed up here will have something to shoot at late stage R8 La Jolla-Gr2 #2 Thirtyfirststreet last was to long for this one think he rebounds here and gets the money has run well in socal before and ships back today after running in some tough ones lately #7 Midnight Interlude looks to be ready for this after a freshener bejarano stays put is the one to beat todayon the grass #4 Burns two good runs under Patv and think this one likes the extra ground given his style of running late #3 Surrey Star have to give him a chance off that last effort against bottom horse just missed at a mile and today goes longer and gets weight off also R10 #2 El Nadia (NZ) looks like this one will lead the way and if can shake off the other speed here will prevail with not much to come after her gets speed freak talamo the one to beat #5 Bab At The Bowser (IRE) stretches out today after nice run in last just missing by half all but one of her wins have come on the soft stuff very popular at the claiming box #3 R Vicarious Girl gets the apprentice today after good effort back after layoff has a lot of speed and will use it here has beaten much better than these here #10 Bella Roja been off since april and returns for lewis not much success at this distance but think works show readyness for this runs fresh a plus good luck all mh01
Curt V. More than 1 year ago
HG246@Arlington, This seems to me, to be too hard of a race, as it looks like a humdinger...So, I'm gonna do something different from my perspective of things..I've seen enough of Gomez on the turf, as he's the King of Turf jockeys.... "When he gets horse, you get ride.......".............I've also seen enough of>Ramon Dom...........& then the local jock{I think}> Shawn-Me-Bridegmohan{sp}.. #7>Cheetah.................. #1>Stacelita.................. #11> Never Retreat........ $75 Exacta #7/over/#1........... $25 Exacta #7/over/#11.........
meathead01 More than 1 year ago
HG246 #1 Stacelita is the class of race having won several gr1 races and the change of jockey is huge the last two runs showed no threat to the top two at all think she is showing chinks in her armour somewhat hasnt run a good race in the last four tries may finish in the top three in this based on rider change and class #3 Fantasia (GB) broke thru after three tries and ran a very fast race to get the win albiet against the lower level of graded stakes maragh seemed to be the difference in that race and was run over a fast and hard surface look for this mare to throw in a good effort today if track stays fast breezed 5 furlongs to get ready for this #4 Upperline stepping way up for this race after win gets graham to ride with trainer 25% think she has outside chance to hit the board on lower spots has put two wins together in past when she gets the lead early stretch she seems to have lots left and pulls away that points to the distance not a problem for her #7 Cheetah (GB) all her races here in the states have been very competive and the last finish was the finish of a champion imo gomez was on two of her runs and knows when to push the button will be making her run late stretch love that last description drew off with flourish she is the one to beat today #11 Never Retreat no grade ones in pps but many graded stakes where she has performed well with last one matching her best beyer for the win she will have to break alertly from the outside post to be a part of the front tier with Dubawi Heights (GB) and rosario #5 Dubawi Heights (GB) the lone speed with Never Retreat at her heels early on think rosario tries the engine today no works over surface may take its toll on this filly trainer is 38% wls asking her to carry six additional lbs and go much farther here may be to much to ask $2 tri key 3 with 14711=$96 $4 win #3 good luck all mh01
Brad More than 1 year ago
Hi, I am a 31 year old pari-mutuels clerk, and your $2 tri key, is not $96.00, it's $ 48.00, add you $4.00 win ticket and that took you to $52.00. To key one horse on top of four for $1 e.g. 1 with 2345 with 2345 is a total of $12.00. Just letting a fellow horse play know the cost, but it didn't matter anyways because SPEED KILLED on saturday, and the #1 Stacelita was so good, how could anyone bet against her after she ran so well against the boys? And if you ever see a horse PREPPED on TURF at MONMOUTH PARK, and they ship somewhere else, they're usually very fit. I am not sure why, but MONMOUTH normally has very fast fractions on tuf, while other tracks like ARLINGTON, FAIRGROUNDS, have very slow fractions. Thanks and good luck, Brad from sarasota EMAIL: BIGTYMB@YAHOO.COM
lefthander32 More than 1 year ago
HG---- $20 exacta--- 7/1,3,6 $10 ex--- 1,5,8/7 $5 ex 4/6,8
bobr More than 1 year ago
HG $100 to win on 6 River Jetez-the Euros are going to sweep the stakes at AP! bobr
Annie More than 1 year ago
KNM, I see your BREAK UP THE GAME is running in the 8th at Saratoga today. He is 6-1 on the TURF! He's the only MKB in the race, but I don't know about the turf. Is anyone getting their name and e-mail automatically filled in? I miss that, I really do. :( Annie
knm More than 1 year ago
Annie, I just replied to your post about Break Up The Game - thanks very much - to see if my name and email were filled in, and they were.
Annie More than 1 year ago
Stella, I see you sold your MASTER OF HOUNDS to a Sheikh and he's going to race in Dubai. :) Annie
Taz More than 1 year ago
hg - $4 tri box 1,2,3,6 = $96 $ .50 tri 1/2,3,4/2,3,4 = $3 total = $99 gl to all taz
Taz More than 1 year ago
hg revised - tencent, I fat fingered my .50 tri portion of my original post @ 11:10 am today. I put 1/2,3,4/2,3,4 and it was suppose to be .50 tri 1/2,3,6/2,3,6 for $3. My original $4 tri post stays as is. sorry for the extra work. taz
Anderson More than 1 year ago
HG-Beverly D. Should be a terrific race with some top notch money earners competing. #1 Stacelita (FR) has banked 1.6 million after 15 races, last time over a similar course layout at Monmouth Park there was a good result considering a wide trip albeit carrying 10 lbs less than today. #6 River Jetez (SAF) has lifetime earnings over 2 million, the 8 year old frequent flyer has run 40 times and ran the straight mile at Newmarket last month. #11 Never Retreat has 867k in winnings and is deserving of a grade 1 start. Looking for #8 Pachattack to lead the way and hold the place. Putting #7 Cheetah (GB) #3 Fantasia (GB) and #6 and #11 on top in exactas. #2 Check the Label keys a small trifecta bet. hg wagers: $20 ex 3,6,7,11 with 8 $5 tri 8 with 3,6,7,11 with 2
Stephen Taylor More than 1 year ago
Well, headed to Arlington (Can't miss Million Day!) For a variety of reasons haven't gotten to the track as often as I like. Gotta take a shot at the Beverly D HG Contest! I'm gonna go with an 80 cent super: # 1,6,10,11 WT # 1,6,10,11 WT # 1,6,10,11 WT # 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,11 Also $4 win #10 Win Candidates: 1-Stacelita-prime top last was against the guys and without lasix. TOP CONTENDER 6-River Jetez-2nd off layoff and adds lasix-certainly must for gimmix and does have a shot here 10-Roamin Robin-monster race last compared to previous efforts and this could be the girl who puts price into the gimmix 11-Never Retreat-prime 3rd is a 3 time grades stakes winner this year and seems to be flourishing right now Secondary Contenders: 2-Check Out The Label-i guess third off layoff he could get a piece off last year's form 3-Fantasia-has the benefit of a race over the track and usually picks up a check 5-Dubawai Heights-layoff a concern for me since he's from a weak layoff barn. does have a 4 race winning streak so not sure what to do with this girl 7-Cheetah-prime 2nd ran a visually impressive race at delaware-guessing this is a better field though 8-Patchattack-may be a better horse on poly? another tough call Throw-Outs-4,9
patrrrrrriccccckkk More than 1 year ago
hg $10 tri: 1,6/11/1,3,6,8 $10 tri: 1,6/1,3,6,8/11
Bochalls More than 1 year ago
HG 246 Entry: Can't escape the obvious in Stacelita (#1) and will go with a consistent mare who's been running every month this year (once a month...is that too much to ask of many barns?...just run em once a month and i'll be happy) and that is #11 Never Retreat. Get's the look-see outside stalking trip, takes her game everywhere with wins on at least 5 different turf courses, and ALWAYS shows up. Outside post, longer trip, step up to Gr1 foes are all concerns; but I believe she's as game as they come. $10 TRI: 1 w 11 w 2-3-5-7 ($40) $15 EX: 11 w 1-7 ($30) $30 WIN: 11 ($30)