04/13/2017 4:23PM

Timeline an up-and-comer

Horseplayers generally shouldn't get too excited about giant performances on wet racetracks. 
In the case of Chad Brown's undefeated 3-year-old TIMELINE, however, one can't help but wonder if he's the goods. 
Timeline hammered a field of entry-level optional claimers traveling a mile at Aqueduct on April 6. Sent away the even-money favorite in the 7-horse field, Timeline broke in under Javier Castellano, but soon righted himself to take up a pace-prompting position outside 21 to 1 rank outsider DEVINE DENTAL. Timeline attacked on the far turn, scooted away once he switched leads in upper stretch and drew off to win by 13 1/2 lengths in 1:36.95 over the sealed, sloppy track. He received a whopping Beyer Speed Figure of 102 for the effort.
Not bad for only his second lifetime appearance. 
Timeline was purchased for $500,000 at the 2015 Keeneland September yearling auction. He is by Hard Spun, a Grade 1 winner at 7 furlongs that was able to successfully stretch out to 1 1/8 miles. Timeline's dam, the Empire Maker mare Azorina, is an unplaced half-sister to Grade 3 route winner Altesse, Grade 3-placed router Alchemist and stakes-winning router Where's the Moon. 
The second dam, Aldiza, captured the Grade 1 Go for Wand Handicap at 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga. Timeline is a direct descendant of blue-hen mare Courtly Dee. 
Timeline made his debut in a 7-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on March 4. The extremely valuable "DRF Clocker Report" (http://www.drf.com/keeclocker) had him pegged as a runner:
Feb 26 PMM 4f fst :48.90
Timeline and Bobby on Fleek both went well while in hand going easily over a fast track through energetic splits of 24.80, 48.80 / 1:01.20, 1:15.20. RATING: B+
Feb 19 PMM 4f fst :48.45
Was traveling better than Ticonderoga under a big hold in the fog and galloped out two lengths clear with very good energy in 12.40. RATING: B+
Feb 13 PMM 4f fst :49.30
Got the better of 5yo MGSW March while in hand going easily in 24.80, 49.00, out 1:02.20, and kept on going with great energy all by himself in 1:15.00, 1:29.60. RATING: B+
Jan 31 PMM 4f fst :48.20
Second-best from the gate to the promising Switzerland while being asked through nice splits of 36.60, 48.40 / 1:01.40. RATING: B
Jan 24 PMM 4f fst :48.30
Went well without being asked for much effort alongside Switzerland through excellent splits of 24.20, 48.00 / 1:00.80, 1:14.40. RATING: B+
Jan 17 PMM 5f fst 1:00.40
Timeline (Castellano) and Take Your Guns both broke well showing good gate speed over a fast track while just going easily in 24.60, 35.80, 48.20, asked some late in sharp clocking, and out a solid 1:15.20. RATING: B+
Timeline rallied from off-the-pace to post a half-length triumph in 1:24.61, a clocking good enough for a solid 85 Beyer Speed Figure. That race was flattered when the runner-up, GIUSEPPE THE GREAT, returned to graduate at Keeneland with a 90 Beyer. The fourth-finisher, TIME TO TRAVEL, came back to win with an 88 on the Florida Derby undercard and will run this Saturday in the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. 
Brown has mentioned the Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan at Belmont Park on May 13 as a possible next race for Timeline. The colt is still a little bit green, but he shouldn't have any issue with the extra distance of the Peter Pan. He's a 3-year-old to watch for the second part of 2017. 
Dan, hopefully you can explain how was the Beyer numbers calculated on 2 races from Florida Derby day. In particular the Honey Fox won by Celestine that earned a 93 # vs the 86 earned by Dover Cliffs winning the Cutler Bay handicap. Both races were essentially run at the same pace and there was only a 3 one hundredths of a sec difference in the final time. Can you please elaborate 
Ian Douglas
I'd guess that the portable rail settings might have had something to do with this. The Honey Fox was run with the rails down while the Cutler Bay was contested over a course with the rails out 72 feet. Not exactly the same one-mile race, to be sure. 
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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 4/5/17 - 4/11/17:
1. SEND IT IN - 119 - Excelsior Stakes (G3) - 1 1/4 Miles - 8Apr17-8AQU
2. PARADISE WOODS - 107 - Santa Anita Oaks (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 8Apr17-6SA 
3. AWESOME SLEW - 102 - Commonwealth Stakes (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 8Apr17-6KEE
3. MACAGONE - 102 - Danger's Hour Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 9Apr17-8AQU
3. TIMELINE - 102 - OC 80k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 6Apr17-8AQU
6. IRISH WAR CRY - 101 - Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 8Apr17-10AQU
7. HOLDING GOLD - 100 - Shakertown Stakes (G2) - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 8Apr17-7KEE
8. JAY'S WAY - 99 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 9Apr17-3AQU
9. GREEN GRATTO - 98 - Carter Handicap (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 8Apr17-9AQU
10. HILLHOUSE HIGH - 96 - Royal Heroine Stakes (G2) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 8Apr17-5SA 
10. PROJECTED (GB) - 96 - Alw 64410C - 1 1/16 Miles - 9Apr17-7KEE
12. DECEMBER SEVEN - 94 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile - 7Apr17-3KEE
12. MISS SKY WARRIOR - 94 - Gazelle Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 8Apr17-11AQU
14. HIGHWAY STAR - 93 - Distaff Handicap (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 9Apr17-5AQU
14. IRAP - 93 - Blue Grass Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 8Apr17-10KEE
14. RECOUNT - 93 - Alw 83000C - 6 Furlongs - 7Apr17-8OP 
17. AMERICAN ROAD - 92 - OC25k/SAL25k - 1 Mile - 7Apr17-5LRL
17. ILLUSSION ARTIST - 92 - Carousel Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 8Apr17-9OP 
19. KATHRYN THE WISE - 91 - Alw 57000N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 5Apr17-8AQU
19. ROY H - 91 - OC 40k/N1X -N -  About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 8Apr17-1SA 
19. SCHIVARELLI - 91 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 8Apr17-3KEE
19. SCITECH - 91 - OC 25k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Apr17-7HAW
23. BIG SCORE - 90 - Transylvania Stakes (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 7Apr17-9KEE
23. GIUSEPPE THE GREAT - 90 - Md Sp Wt 59k - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 8Apr17-4KEE
23. PAULASSILVERLINING - 90 - Madison Stakes (G1) - 7 Furlongs - 8Apr17-8KEE
23. SWEET LORETTA - 90 - Beaumont Stakes (G3) - About 7 Furlongs - 9Apr17-8KEE
23. WESTLEY - 90 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 6Apr17-5GG 
*Send It In's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
There was no winner in the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
Let's go with Saturday's Arkansas Derby as this week's exercise.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
SEND IT IN.pdf757.53 KB
HG 4 8 17 Bluegrass notes.doc27.5 KB
HG 4 8 17 Bluegrass.xls16.77 KB