09/09/2009 6:57PM

Thanks for writing


Saratoga_Mike said: 

   Randy, Could you please post and comment on Rachel's Moss Pace figs from the Woodward?

    No problem.  Rachel Alexandra's pacefigs for the Woodward were not that far out of line with those of her recent races.  She deserves style points for putting away consecutive direct challenges from older males, but in terms of the clock, her figs were solidly above-average for 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga while not impossibly fast.

    Pacefigs for Rachel's last four starts 

       Woodward:  83-87-93-95  final 96

       Haskell:      75-85-93-99  final 99

       Mothr Gse:  83-90-94-96 final 97

       Preakness:  75-80-87      final 96

Patrick said:  

    As someone who computes Beyer Speed Figures, how difficult would it be for someone to make figures for the great horses that ran in the 1960s? I have access to a complete set of DRF chart books from the decade and have always thought about taking a swing at making Beyer pars/figures for the NYRA tracks as a special project. Any suggestions or advice? Thanks.

    That's something I've always wanted to try. Unfortunately, I could never find the time. You could get deeper than this, but for starters, I'd suggest compiling a five-year sample of average raw Beyer Speed Figures for every distance and class level. Using those raw-time pars, you could then take a stab at making track variants on the days those great horses ran.

     It's far from an exact science, but suppose Dr. Fager ran a race 30 points faster than nw1x allowance horses and 40 points faster than open maidens.  Wouldn't that be interesting? That could translate into a mid-120s figure by today's standards.

     Of course, this doesn't take into account the possibility that today's horses are inherently faster than those of yesteryear, but it would be a fun exercise.  Good luck, and if you choose to accept this mission, please let me know what you come up with.

GregB said:

   "...deserve nothing but platitudes." Platitudes? LOL You might want to look up that one in a dictionary.

    LOL indeed.  Thanks for the English lesson.  According to Merriam Webster, the first definition of platitude is "a quality or state of being dull or insipid."  Obviously, that's not what I intended to convey, so perhaps that would describe me.  I'm not sure whether to apologize first to the readers or Jess Jackson. How about both?  

Michael Costello said:  

   Past the Point, eh? Well I guess I can confidently dismiss these pace figures from any future handicapping ventures.

    Past the Point was merely an option I threw out based on, a) the chance he might make a clear early lead, b) the possibility he would be in comparable form to his '08 Woodward, given the recent success of Maktoum-owned horses in stakes races, c) his 15-1 program odds (he went to post at 13-1), and d) the reality that many horseplayers would want an option other than 1-5 Rachel Alexandra.

    What's the problem?  He only lost by 17 3/4 lengths.  

 Here's another from Saratoga_Mike:

     Is it possible for you to publish a Moss Pace fig to Beyer Pace fig conversion chart on here for half-time splits? I want to be able to convert your four-furlong pars into Beyer half-time equivalents. I typically bet on a track with very few shippers, so I simply use the Beyer four-furlong table contained in "Beyer on Speed" and adjust for the Beyer variant. I understand why you truncated your pars, but I think there are a lot of people accustomed to my simplistic single track approach. I'd gladly buy your Pace Moss figs everyday if you'd provide a conversion table--it will help me with the occasional shipper and speed up the process by taking the variant calculation out of the process. Thanks.

     Okay, you asked for it. 

     A Beyer Speed Figure of 120 corresponds to a 100 on the Moss Pace Figure scale, and on the other end of the spectrum, a Beyer Speed Figure of 0 corresponds to a 56 on the Moss Pace Figure scale.

      From there, it's not too difficult for those mathematically or algebraically inclined to come up with a conversion spreadsheet.  If x=Moss Pace Figure, use this formula to get the corresponding Beyer figure: ((x-100)/0.366)+120. 

      For example, if a Moss Pace Figure is 75, the Beyer Speed Figure will be:

      ((75-100)/0.366)+120, or (-25/0.366)+120, or (-68)+120 or.......52.

       Now that deserves platitudes!