04/20/2016 2:23PM

Tepin sensational again!


It's beginning to sound like a broken record, but TEPIN was sensational yet again in last Saturday's Grade 1 Jenny Wiley Stakes at Keeneland.

Trainer Mark Casse had his choice between the $350,000 Jenny Wiley at 1 1/16 miles and the Grade 1, $300,000 Maker's 46 Mile against males on Friday, and he chose the slightly-richer spot at a slightly-longer distance.

Tepin took care of the rest and she never gave her many backers an anxious moment. Utilizing her potent tactical speed, Tepin settled just off the leaders while in the clear. She cruised by pacesetter SHE'S NOT HERE when produced and coasted home under moderate urging. Tepin completed the distance on firm turf in 1:40.53, a final clocking good enough for a 107 Beyer Speed Figure.

Tepin has now won five straight, eight of her last ten, and is a head and a nose away from being undefeated during that ten-race span. She's earned Beyers greater than 105 in five of those starts.

"She’s amazing," exclaimed Julien Leparoux after the Jenny Wiley. "She can do whatever we want. I didn’t think there was going to be that much pace today, so I was planning on sitting second. But when I saw (other horses) going (to the lead), I just sat back there. On the backside, she started to get going. Every time you ask her to do something, she does even better."

Tepin's next goal is the Grade 2, $300,000 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile on Kentucky Derby afternoon. If all goes well in that start, she might then make an overseas excursion to Royal Ascot for the Group 1 Queen Anne on June 14. That race could produce a mouth-watering matchup against European superstar, and defending Queen Anne winner, SOLOW, regarded by some as the best horse on the planet.

*Speaking of Royal Ascot, MISS TEMPLE CITY proved a capable fill-in for Tepin in the Maker's 46. In her first start against males, and first race against older horses of any kind, Miss Temple City reeled in sharp pacesetter HEART TO HEART despite failing to switch leads in the stretch. She was assigned a whopping 108 Beyer Speed Figure for her seasonal debut. Kudos to Graham Motion for a tremendous training job, and Miss Temple City is booked for the Group 2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes on June 15.

*I really liked the winning runs from both EFFINEX (Oaklawn Handicap) and EAGLE (Ben Ali Stakes). The former, second in last year's Breeders' Cup Classic, avenged his defeat at the hooves of MELATONIN with a pace-pressing score. Effinex traveled comfortably every step of the way at Oaklawn and he roared past a game Melatonin in the stretch.

Eagle received a lovely ride in the Ben Ali. Last entering the backstretch of the nine-furlong test, Eagle shot the gap along the rail to grab pocket position. Once switched out in the stretch, Eagle changed leads on cue and he wore down NOBLE BIRD late. This was the best I've seen Eagle in a long time. It must be noted that he is undefeated at Keeneland.


Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 4/12/16 - 4/18/16:

1. MISS TEMPLE CITY - 108 - Maker's 46 Mile (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 15Apr16-9KEE
2. TEPIN - 107 - Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 16Apr16-10KEE
3. EFFINEX - 106 - Oaklawn Handicap (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - 16Apr16-9OP
4. ALWAYS SUNSHINE - 102 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - 16Apr16-7KEE
5. EAGLE - 101 - Ben Ali Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - 16Apr16-7KEE
6. STRADIVARI - 100 - Alw 59585N1X - 1 1/8 Miles - 17Apr16-2KEE
7. FOREVER UNBRIDLED - 99 - Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 15Apr16-9OP
7. SAN ONOFRE - 99 - Los Angeles Stakes (G3) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 16Apr16-5LRC
9. MRS MCDOUGAL - 98 - Plenty of Grace Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 16Apr16-7AQU
10. CREATOR - 96 - Arkansas Derby (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 16Apr16-11OP
10. FOUR LEFT FEET - 96 - OC18k/SAL8k - 6 Furlongs - 14Apr16-5HAW
10. NATCHEZ - 96 - OC 75k/N2Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 16Apr16-2OP
10. PAULASSILVERLINING - 96 - Distaff Handicap (G3) - 7 Furlongs - 17Apr16-8AQU
14. GEAUX METS - 94 - Clm 25000 - 6 Furlongs - 17Apr16-2AQU
14. KASAQUI (ARG) - 94 - Alw 56692N3X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 17Apr16-9KEE
14. UNION JACKSON - 94 - OC 100k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - 15Apr16-2KEE
17. DELTA BLUESMAN - 93 - OC 62k/C - 6 Furlongs - 13Apr16-7GP
17. EXAGGERATED - 93 - Giant's Causeway Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 16Apr16-8KEE
17. TWEET KITTEN - 93 - Alw 63074N2X - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 14Apr16-6KEE
20. JOKING - 92 - OC 100k/C - 6 Furlongs - 13Apr16-5AQU
20. TOP BILLING - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 15Apr16-8KEE
22. ALL STAR RED - 91 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 13Apr16-8AQU
22. BOOZER - 91 - Bertrando Stakes - 1 Mile - 16Apr16-7LRC
22. HOWDY - 91 - OC 40k/N$Y -N - 1 Mile - 14Apr16-7LRC
22. MOMENTS NOTIZ - 91 - Alw 25000s - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 17Apr16-6LRC
22. SECOND SUMMER - 91 - OC 62k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 17Apr16-7LRC
22. TORO GRANDE - 91 - Clm 5000B - 6 Furlongs - 14Apr16-8HAW

*The lifetime past performances for MISS TEMPLE CITY are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Video stakes analyses for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

Matt Bernier, Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis for Charles Town, Keeneland, Los Alamitos and more beginning at 3pm ET Saturday aftenroon on live.drf.com.


Congrats to Saratogajunkie for winning last week's HandiGambling challenge.

Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Saratogajunkie requested a turf race from either Laurel or Keeneland. Let's go with the Henry Clark Stakes from Laurel for this week's exercise.


SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.

The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING .

1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.

2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.

3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.

4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.

In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.

HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40

$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100

Thanks Dan!




HG 4 16 16 ARK Derby.xls52.5 KB
HGLRL.pdf194.99 KB
Professor Molesap More than 1 year ago
vs and Mike - BSB Numbers Explained

There has been some question as to the BSB numbers – they are NOT the simple female family numbers. Yes, Mike is correct that Nyquist is a 6f. Many pedigree pundits stop at that point. But what Blackseabass (BSB) noted was that he looked at the female family for five generations, not just the female family of the dam. And yes, he did give credit to Bruce Lowe and in fact, his comments interested me enough to read more about the subject. I will say straight up that I know almost nothing about pedigree and as a scientist question the “BSB” formula some as it gives equal weight to all females in the first five generations, but the one thing that he presented was compelling data about the success of “his” numbers. I am not sure if someone has done this before him, but since he was the one who brought to the blog, they have been called BSB numbers. In addition, when I looked up some stuff last year, I could not find a similar system. So while he obviously did not invent the female family numbers, he used the numbers in an attempt to get at an overall view of the female families for five generations. 

So BSB looked at only the female family numbers for five generations of a pedigree (so all 31 dams) and noted the one that occurred the most frequently. That one was the “BSB” number. He ignored the letter designations. So for Nyquist, it is a BSB 4, even though the female family is 6. This is because there are five 6’s in his first 31 female descendants. There are six 8’s in his lineage as well. But, there are seven 4’s, making it the most frequent of the numbers and thus making Nyquist a BSB 4. All the other numbers that occur have a frequency of less than five, so they do not impact the number.

Not sure how solid this analysis is form a pedigree standpoint because as I said, it equally weights the influence of all female families on the pedigree for five generations, but his data on the way he calculated the BSB numbers was somewhat compelling as listed below – compelling enough for me to talk a closer look, but certainly not enough to get me on or off a horse in the Derby. However, I do not think it is “noise” either.

BSB Summary of BSB Numbers for the Derby (1980-2012)

23 = 4/13 (31%)
14 = 2/17 (12%)
1 = 17/176 (10%)
4 = 6/108 (6%)
All else (3, 8, 13, 16) = 5/169 (3%)

mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago

         Nyquist is a 6...6-f to be exact.....

Folks....while I know the fisherman had his "followers".....but to me it's ridiculous to give female family numbers the "bsb" designation like he invented the system...and my guess just a bit insulting to the spirit of the man who originally did the extensive work involved in coming up with those numbers....Bruce Lowe, who didn't live long enough to see his work published  in  the year 1895.....Those numbers have been updated a few times to get us where we are today......

               Google female family numbers for thoroughbreds...wealth of info and the fisherman isn't there.....unless he's the reincarnated soul of Bruce Lowe..... Mike A
Professor Molesap More than 1 year ago
Glad people could access the PP and hope they get some use out of them. 

I do not have the data in front of me and the only written record I have is as BSB file that says Nyquist = BSB 4. I am not even sure if I did those calculations myself, but whether I did or not, it could be wrong.  I cannot access any of the pedigrees on the site for some reason, so I cannot even check, but I will figure it out when the site is back up and will post the results. It could be that you are correct. If I did it, I could of made a mistake as it was the first one I would have done this year and they can get a bit confusing. I started keeping more detailed notes later, that is why I can easily check on Shagaf below as I just completed that one last night.

I thought the same thing - Shagaf has five 23's, but he has eight 4's - that is why he is a BSB 4. However, more so than most he has lots of good BSB numbers in his pedigree. Going with the top four BSB numbers (1-4-14-23), he has 16 of his 31 numbers as one of the top four - most other horses have half of that. Not sure what it means if anything, but I did notice the 23's as I see relatively few horses with that family number.
VanSavant More than 1 year ago

What am I missing?  I thought Nyquist was a BSB 6?
Anonymous More than 1 year ago

Too much, too little in final prep? Eight up or down is the max it has been for most previous Derby winners.






The rest were all within the parameters.


mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
I need to make a correction.....writing early in the morning has it's drawbacks. I said no LD winner ever won the Derby and that isn't what I meant to say.....No LD winner ever went directly from the LD to win the Derby...2 horses have won the Derby and won the LD...they just had another race in between.....

         I made my decision about the Bluegrass....I've decided to downgrade it a bit....seeing as they ran midlin early..the race basically ran slower each individual quarter.....and the 6f marker to the mile was run in 25:4...which gave Brody's Cause a 24:3, while not bad he ran just shy of 13 flat the final 1/8th. While that may bode well coming back to 1 1/8th in his third start, I don't see it helping with the extra 1/8th. As far as My Man Sam it was a very nice race considering he's only had 4, but while he closed down in the lane it was under 2 lengths and he did run slower around the turn.....so I just can't see him stretching and running better....I believe the Bluegrass was a cut below.....

          When you have a year where maidens run second in prep races it should tell you something......The more I look the more it seems the better horses are coming out of CA and Oaklawn......but I will watch Gun Runner......that work for him was over the top for a "slow" horse.....

         A friend emailed me after seeing I decided to go against Nyquist.....he was "puzzled" by my decision. He reminded me Haskin had him numero uno in his Derby Dozen...reasoning that he had done nothing wrong and it just may be that he is leaps and bound better than everyone. Winning from the front, stalking or coming from behind. I thought about it....seems reasonable...he could be and at 10-1 I would probably think differently, but as the favorite I want to see a 3 year old son from In Excess, Indian Charlie and now Uncle Mo do it first....maybe three's the charm.....either way if I can get a good price on someone else I like I'd rather lose at a decent mutual than win at 2-1.....who knows I may get better place and show prices should Nyquist win.....Mike A
God Bless Longshots More than 1 year ago
That should be read as Kee Race 6 Today

God Bless Longshots More than 1 year ago
Kee Wed - Race 8

Two favorites (#3 HEATH & #4 PINE NEEDLES) are expected to get the most attention not only because of the connections but also perhaps because of their close finishes to Lady Eli in The Wonder Again and Belmont Oaks respectively. I'm not sure why Christope Clement opted for James Graham on Pine Needles as better jockeys were available including Joe Bravo who has ridden the filly at Monmouth Park.

#5 WEREWOLF (10/1)
The lightly raced is an interesting filly. She can stay close to the slow pace and she can stay behind and close after moderate pace. Shaun winning at 25% clip and 48% ITM money at Keeneland... really? That gives me a lot of hope as he is the regular rider of the filly. Her last race at FG mud and the subsequent layoff could be of a little concern but if she's ready, she's capable of not only splitting the favorites but also upset them. A fair attempt is only what I'm hoping for here.

#11 SALAMA (10/1)
This spot looks more realistic compared to her last two as those two were the only off-the-board finishes in her career. I'm encouraged to see Charles LoPresti switching her to turf. Somehow, I just can't digest her bad showings in her last two and willing to give her a chance to show that she not only belong here and I can keep an eye on her in the future.

Rodney . More than 1 year ago
Bernard, Their last game sums up the problem at the moment. 2-0 at half time, I was thinking wouldn't be long before it was 3-0 second half. They came out flat, and it was soon 2-2. He seems an excellent coach, but they need to strengthen the squad to challenge at the top of the Premiership. You can't throw away games like at home & expect to finish top four. Might get away with in the Europa Cup though, fancy their chances. The defence needs added bite...their achilles heel is set pieces. Hillsborough...finally justice for those poor families, a travesty it has taken soo long, as you say, all football fans know that.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago


Thank you so much!!! Now that I have the magic PPs : ), I can begin in earnest.

I had only looked at SHAGAF'S three dams (mom, grandma, great grandma), and they were all 23s. So he apparently has some of those too. And, Pedigree Query says he is from family 23. Also, if ADVENTIST gets in, he has some 23s.