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Tepin conquers Royal Ascot
*As many of you have noticed, the "BLOG" tab on the home page has been removed. You can find this blog every week (usually published on Wednesday and Thursday) at drf.com/blogs or by going to the "NEWS" tab and clicking on the "Blogs" link.
*With no other worlds to conquer on this continent, the mighty TEPIN looked overseas for new competition over middle distances on turf, and she couldn't be stopped in Tuesday's Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes over rain-soaked soft ground at Royal Ascot.
Racing without her trusty Lasix and nasal strip, Tepin, the 11 to 2 co-third choice in on-track wagering, utilized her potent tactical speed to grab a good forward position under Julien Leparoux. She surged to the front with a furlong remaining and dug in gamely to deny co-favorite BELARDO, a 4-year-old colt that won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes last month at Newbury.
With SOLOW, arguably the strongest European miler, still sidelined with a leg injury, this wasn't the strongest renewal of the Queen Anne, but it still featured some talented runners. Along with Belardo, the Group 1 winners vanquished by Tepin were ERVEDYA (Prix du Moulin, Coronation Stakes, French 1,000 Guineas), TOORMORE (National Stakes), AMAZING MARIA (Prix Rothschild, Falmouth Stakes), MONDIALISTE (Woodbine Mile) and ESOTERIQUE (Sun Chariot Stakes, Prix Jacques le Marois, Prix Rothschild).
It's been a strong year for North American-trained runners overseas. California Chrome grabbed the Dubai World Cup in March, has returned to training in the States and is being pointed for races like the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.
Tepin, a nose and a head away from being unbeaten in her last 12 races, will take a deserved break before ramping up preparations for a Breeders' Cup Mile defense. A race like the Woodbine Mile is on the radar and trainer Mark Casse mentioned that she might remain in training for a Dubai tilt in 2017.
*Speaking of talented female turf milers, CELESTINE steamrolled twelve others in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes on the Belmont undercard. Trained by Bill Mott, Celestine broke like a shot before settling off 44 to 1 longshot LA BERMA's opening fractions of 23.36 and 46.13. Celestine roared right by La Berma on the turn and was never seriously threatened in the final quarter of a mile. Her final time of 1:31.64, good enough for a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure, was 1/100th of a second off the course record.
Although Tepin and MISS TEMPLE CITY, generally regarded as the two best female middle-distance runners in the country, were off at Royal Ascot, the normally-reserved Mott mentioned that "They might be lucky they were over there today."
A race like the nine-furlong Diana at Saratoga seems like a logical spot for Celestine.
*The 123 Beyer earned by FROSTED in the Metropolitan Handicap is the fastest figure since Saint Liam and Commentator popped 123's in the 2005 Whitney. Ghostzapper's 128 (2004 Iselin Handicap over a sloppy track at Monmouth) is the highest number recorded since Beyers were published in the paper.
*Video stakes previews for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos
*Matt Bernier, Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4:00 ET on Saturday. You can find us at live.drf.com.
*You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 5/31/16 - 6/6/16:
1. MIDNIGHT STORM - 108 - Shoemaker Mile (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 4Jun16-6SA
2. FULL MAST - 101 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Jun16-3BEL
2. REQUITE - 101 - Parrot Key Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-2GP
4. BEHOLDER - 100 - Vanity Mile (G1) - 1 Mile - 4Jun16-7SA
4. MIDDLEBURG - 100 - Red Bank Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 5Jun16-8MTH
6. EDZACTLY - 99 - Alw 29500N1X - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-9PEN
6. LORD NELSON - 99 - OC 75k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 3Jun16-7SA
8. HUNT - 98 - Siren Lure Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Jun16-1SA
8. S'MAVERLOUS - 98 - Mountainview Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Jun16-3PEN
10. ALSVID - 97 - Aristides Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-10CD
10. JAY GATSBY - 97 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 3Jun16-8BEL
10. SHAFT OF LIGHT - 97 - OC35k/SAL25k - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-6MTH
13. ARROGATE - 96 - Md Sp Wt 56k - 1 1/16 Miles - 5Jun16-2SA
13. TAKE COVER - 96 - Pennsylvania Governor's Cup - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-2PEN
15. SARATOGA DREAMER - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 2Jun16-7BEL
16. IKE WALKER - 94 - OC 40k/N1X - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Jun16-10SA
17. BIG MOMMA - 93 - Alw 8000s - 5 Furlongs - 31May16-7PRX
17. DIMENSION (IRE) - 93 - Connaught Cup (G2-C) - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Jun16-8WO
17. DUTY PROPER - 93 - OC7k/SAL5k - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 4Jun16-10CBY
20. CATCH A GLIMPSE - 92 - Penn Mile (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 4Jun16-4PEN
20. CLASS AND CASH - 92 - Alw 44646N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 4Jun16-6PIM
20. DADDY'S BOO - 92 - Alw 16000s - 1 Mile (Turf) - 5Jun16-8CD
20. LATENT REVENGE - 92 - Mighty Beau Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-9CD
24. I'M IN A HURRY - 91 - OC7k/SAL5k - 6 Furlongs - 3Jun16-1LS
24. NASHVILLE KNIGHT - 91 - Alw 85802N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 5Jun16-7WO
24. ROXBURY N OVERTON - 91 - Lyman Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 4Jun16-10PRX
24. RUN FOR LOGISTICS - 91 - OC 30k/N2X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-5MTH
24. SUCCESSFUL NATIVE - 91 - Bonita Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-3GP
24. VESTIBULE - 91 - Alw 30000N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 4Jun16-3CBY
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 6/7/16 - 6/13/16:
1. FROSTED - 123 - Metropolitan Handicap (G1) - 1 Mile - 11Jun16-9BEL
2. FLINSHIRE (GB) - 110 - Manhattan Stakes (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 11Jun16-10BEL
3. CELESTINE - 107 - Just a Game Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 11Jun16-8BEL
4. JOKING - 103 - True North Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - 10Jun16-8BEL
4. POSHKY - 103 - Crystal Water Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 11Jun16-2SA
6. CAVORTING - 102 - Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Jun16-5BEL
6. DELTA BLUESMAN - 102 - OC 50k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - 11Jun16-10MTH
6. ECONOMIC MODEL - 102 - Easy Goer Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Jun16-1BEL
6. PURE SENSATION - 102 - Jaipur Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - 11Jun16-6BEL
10. CREATOR - 99 - Belmont Stakes (G1) - 1 1/2 Miles - 11Jun16-11BEL
10. SHAMAN GHOST - 99 - Brooklyn Stakes (G2) - 1 1/2 Miles - 11Jun16-4BEL
10. ZINDAYA - 99 - Intercontinental Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 9Jun16-8BEL
13. BACCELO (BRZ) - 98 - OC c-62k/N2X - 1 Mile - 10Jun16-7SA
13. CARINA MIA - 98 - Acorn Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile - 11Jun16-3BEL
15. OHIO (BRZ) - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 12Jun16-4SA
16. DACITA (CHI) - 96 - New York Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 10Jun16-9BEL
16. KAREENA - 96 - Jersey Girl Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 10Jun16-5BEL
16. THEOGONY - 96 - Rags to Riches Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles - 10Jun16-3BEL
19. CASH CONTROL - 95 - Mint Julep Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 11Jun16-11CD
19. CLEVER ROYAL - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 11Jun16-7SA
19. FUNDAMENTAL - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 11Jun16-12BEL
19. NO DISTORTION - 95 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 11Jun16-6DEL
19. TOM'S READY - 95 - Woody Stephens Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - 11Jun16-7BEL
24. BOMBS AWAY - 94 - Md Sp Wt 85k - 7 Furlongs - 10Jun16-1BEL
24. CONNECT - 94 - Alw 90000N1X - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Jun16-2BEL
24. DANNIE'S DECEIVER - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 11Jun16-13BEL
24. I'M A CHATTERBOX - 94 - Obeah Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 11Jun16-8DEL
*The lifetime past peformances for both Midnight Storm and Frosted are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*Baccelo was claimed for $62,500 by trainer David Jacobson from John Sadler.
Congrats to Curt V. for winning last week's HandiGambling challenge.
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
Curt V selected Saturday's fourth race from Churchill Downs for this week's exercise.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
$10 EX 6 / 1,2,5, 8 = $40
$5 TRI 6 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,5,8 = $60
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|Copy of HG 6 11 16 Belmont Stakes.xls||54.5 KB|
I will answer all your questions more in depth this weekend......good questions too. I want to answer but not the way I would talk to Steve....there are so many "unspoken truths" between us that I want to answer without taking anything for granted....things Steve and I wouldn't say to each other because to us it's a given......
For now I'll give you something to think about when it came to Obviously. Nice fractions......some have been a bit critical of the other jockey's letting him "rumble along"......now I will agree that many of the turf races run now are run like they do in Europe...24's early faster late....and I will agree that on some occasions it gets horses beat.....like I always say for every length behind you need to be a length + faster to win so allowing a horse who can finish quick to get away with moderate fractions seems well stupid. Usually though slow early doesn't always guarantee a win if the horse in front doesn't also posses a quick turn of foot, it ties into what I say about horses who can make up significant ground around the turn, horses with sustainable runs....they usually will beat you regardless. As I mentioned to Slew during our spirited discussion about SBN.....I said he didn't posses that "turn speed".....looks impressive coming home but means little when it comes to winning.....I said compared to Creator who could gain 7 or 8 around the turn there was no comparison, so I lost 30.00 betting Creator in the KD....but got that back in spades Belmont day.....I will admit to a little satisfaction when SBN failed to hit the board......lesson learned I hope.
Anyway....Obviously.....History.....I don't blame the jocks for how they rode the race.......because of history....I will fault them a bit because they, after pace/closers had done well on the Widener that fact started to change on Friday and carried over into Saturday, missed it. However look at Obviously....he hadn't won in 2 years...almost to the day actually....fast early, moderate early, no matter how far in front he got beat.....sometimes second, sometimes not. I'm not sure but I believe it was about 8 starts. Even Bolo beat him at his own game a mile....Bolo??....Did you see where Bolo finished at CD's? after whipping Obviously?.....I understand why the others riders let him rumble...because in 2 years and even before that he always came back......this time he didn't......and the course had a little to do with it......someone would have had to run just about a 22 flat the last 1/4 to win and that doesn't happen often.......as a 4 or 5 year old King Kreesa could, but he may have lost a step....With the short field and the odds the way they were I saw the race as one with little potential for a score.....I was more interested in how Offering Plan would run......for future considerations. He did ok all things considered......It was really a race to stay away from....bragging rights was about all it was good for......Obviously isn't a changed animal......I believe he just took to the course....good for him...he deserves a win.....not the jocks fault, I know he was chalk, but except for the folks who bet him (at those odds all things considered you had to have a screw loose) no one thought he would go on with it especially the other jocks.....me too......Live and learn......Mike A
The PH Contest
Out of curiosity, I searched for our last PH contest champion to find out how he is doing.
Knewcomb, the poor fella, is currently ranked 1508 with the record of 5/27 and ROI of -$6.10.
**Sigh** @ the life of a handicapper.
I have never trained a racehorse, but does it bother anyone else that Songbird has won pretty much every race she has ever run geared down? Has she “learned” from experience that you get wrapped up in the stretch or will she be able to respond if ever challenged? Thoroughbred racehorses seem to be creatures of habit and I have some concern that she has never been asked for anything in the stretch during a race. Of course if she never gets challenged that is a question that does not need to be challenged, but one has to expect the waters are going to get deeper at some point. Carina Mia and Cathryn Sofia are both very good in her own division and when she tackles older or heaven forbid, takes on the males she is going to likely have to call on that reserve. Will she be able to respond?
Backstretch rumor - I have heard (and read in a few places) that “someone dropped the dime” on Lynch. I cannot confirm the speculation, but it the whole series of events seems to be strange, but sports seems to be going down that road now. I still do not understand the actions - when trainers use potentially life-threatening drugs on a horse they walk away with a slap on the wrist, yet when they personally partake in a recreational drug that is legal in a few states, they are suspended indefinitely. Just another inconsistency in the sport.
Wholeheartedly agree with your assessment of east coast riders on the turf. Sometimes they are not aggressive enough early. I have said that if I had a turf horse I would race it in Southern California as the pickings seem much easier there because the turf division is so weak. Maybe I would amend that to say if I had a speed horse for the turf I would consider the east coast because with an aggressive ride, you could steal more than your fair share of races.
As always thanks for putting the possible timing errors in perspective. I know the answers are going to be somewhat complicated, but I am interested in the answers to DavidM9999’s questions as well if you have time and get a chance.
Thanks for the reply, good points all around.
I posted this on Monday “Handicappers view time from their own personal prism. Some look at visuals of a race, some view who you beat as more important than what the time was, while others might rely on Beyer or Ragozin for a numeric translation of the raw time. For me personally times matter a lot but are not the only factor in handicapping. Complex sports often are not completely mastered with simple approaches….”
In order to incorporate some of your techniques into my regimen and for that matter for others on the site to do as well here are a few followup questions:
1. How SPECIFICALLY does one assess the quality of runners you describe as “who you run against and how well you do”. Is it conditions,company, graded class or field composition. If it’s the latter how do you specifically assess the field quality of who these animals run against. So let's say Kaigun beats Grand Tito and Tito is assessed as this or that. How did you assess Tito and against who. Once a horse is determined to be "capable" when does that capability gets adjusted. Thinking of prior form like with Potomac River these days.
2. Times are relative. I agree and understand that. Always have said context matters in regards to times be it company, course, or race shape. Courses vary with GP faster than AP, etc. A faster come home by off a slow half can be expected. Go to 6F in 1:14 and an average animal may be able to come home in 29 for final 5/16. Same animal might come home in much differently off a faster split. A final come home in in sub 29 off a 1:11 6F can mean this is a good animal on a fair course yielding par times. If it is done by a field of restricted state breds it may not be as powerful as open stakes types.
3. Winning with authority. How are you determining an authoritative turf win specifically? By lengths ahead coupled with a subjective opinion of the jockey ask? Just the ask? Apparent body language of animal throughout the stretch? Something else?
Not questioning what you say just trying to gain an understanding of how this skill set can begin to be developed more fully by the community including myself realizing it may take significant time. It seems there has to be a few “foundational” tenets that are shareable for us to apply keeping in mind Form Blog space constraints.
Horse update – Huddy Buddy went 1:02.20 Monday at DEL. He has worked 38.40; 49.20; 37.25 and 38.2 now. I expect a race soon but have not reviewed the condition book. AK’s Candy went 1:03.80 Tuesday. She had two prior works each in 38.40. I have no details from her work yesterday. I assume she was not pulling the Budweiser wagon as one might infer from the final clocking.
I can't speak for Mr Pricci of course, but it seemed to me he was implying that something was strange about a trainer getting asked to take a random drug test two days before one of the biggest racing days of the year...like someone who knew Mr. Lynch partook of the magical herb suggested officials test him...another trainer/owner who wanted Lynch's horses out of the way...and the fact that a Lynch horse then raced for a trainer who has been popped for chemical abuse of his horses....The surrender of the license also caught my attention...as well as what appeared to be an attempt to defend Rick Dutrow....At the end of the day, it read as if Pricci was implicating NYRA in playing favorites for whatever reasons. Would someone really go so far as to put a bug in someone's ear about a trainer getting high? Not a jock, but a trainer? I realize trainers make decisions that could be impaired by drugs/alcohol...but something did seem strange about nailing the guy on something fairly minor two days before the races?
Your assessment of King K's connections hoping Obviously might come back because of age could be the key...the distance did seem a bit short for Force the Pass...but I take nothing away from Obviously...if the clock is close to right, he was moving
Very interested to hear a recap of Woodbine if you have time.I love watching and betting races there.
I read the John Pricci piece. I left the article with more questions than answers. Maybe that was his intent. I could not ascertain if he was taking the position it was a selective sham or the NYRA authorities know more about this. The comment about an attorney advisingLynch to relinquish his license piqued my interest. What did you take away from the article?
Watch race 8 on turf at Belmont Saturday. I am a broken record but you will see what I mean about turf racing trips again… As to the Poker Stakes I just watched the replay as Saturday I was playing Granddad.
Obviously ran 22.88; 22.80; 22.74; 22.85 for 1:31.27. Those are truly amazing fractions. In the battle of dueling tick ticks until proven otherwise I will assume Longines has this right not Watchmaker. Kreesa goes 23.07; then 22.74. Grand Arch 23.12 and 22.77. So it appears on raw numbers the first quarter by the two other speed/stalk types were a bit off contention and not under an ask. NY jockeys to my simple mind are not aggressive send types on grass. I have been writing forever that New York is the home of the 50 second turf half mile. You can go to the Meadowlands and darn see near that. On grass generally jocks are afraid to engage thinking the closing wave will run over them late. I love to see a free running turf animal exploit the timidness of the NY colony.
Maybe the Kreesa connections thought this… sit second or in a tidy spot outside the speed hoping Obviously comes back to us as an 8 year old. That happened in the Woodbine Mile and in the BC but other factors were in play including Tepin and good ground. In the end if Obviously runs his race King Kreesa is not in his league anyway. If Kreesa pesters Obviously maybe Force the Pass (our pick) is the beneficiary. I though Force the Pass ran very well (38.0 MPH late) as did Offering Plan (38.4 MPH). Chasing down Jason Bourne is an easier task than trying to catch Obviously on a day where he missed the magical course record of Elusive Quality by 0.02. While I can’t seem to remember even a short grocery list these days I can still remember where I was sitting the day I saw that run by EQ.
Opening day at Belmont.....Steve updates me on the turf winners as I was out all day. He makes note of the times.....can you believe so and so ran a.....(fill in the blank). I say.....the course is glib, doesn't make sense they took rain early in the week. So onto Saturday....Apr. 30th. We're on the phone, first race comes up and Southern Gem wins a 1 1/16th race in 1:39:0....now I'v been watching SG race for a few years now, remember her maiden breaker when Pletcher had her, one of the few times I bet a pletcher horse. Glib or no there was no way that filly ran that time unless they strapped a Saturn V to her. We watched all day as NW1X alw. fillies ran 7f's in 1:19:4, A Lot set a course record for 7f's in 1:19:2.....I said to Steve there's a slight timing issue.....So we've observed this on and off for the last month and a half......The problem seems to be on the Widener course....not the inner. I trust the times on the inner.
It doesn't surprise me that someone finally saw it, what does surprise me is that folks who have been watching races from Belmont for so many years took so long to see it......Well I have good news, it doesn't really matter.......Times are relative to who runs them and how. It's just goes along with what I've been saying till I'm hoarse.....it's who you run against and how well you do.....raw times aren't that important...the times have been about a second fast throughout.....start finish, come homes...Sometimes they are quick, sometimes not, depends on the course "speed" and how the race unfolds.....does anyone honestly think a 5 year old that has been running for 2 or 3 years suddenly runs a time out of this world and believe "the lightbulb" suddenly came on?....All one needs to know is that the time was quick...whether it was correct or not, the key is how and against who.....add just how everyone did that ran also......The horse that won April 30th did so with authority whether the times were good or not. Now maybe the times fooled some trainers...as the trainer of SG decided after all those races she suddenly got better and entered her in a stake...to which she reverted back to herself and was beaten soundly...otherwise all of the ones who ran fast came back to run well and some of the ones who ran well into those "uick" times came back to win.....People have to stop obsessing over raw times.....look at Gulf, horses who couldn't sniff a win all winter are suddenly winning in fast times. Couldn't win a 7.5f race run in 1:29 and change in Feb. are suddenly winning in 1:27 and 1:28.....why??....it's all about the competition. The Time snafu hasn't slowed Steve and I down becauese we know just how good a race is by many other factors....final time only being a small part. Fast times like fast workouts doesn't guarantee you anything......it only means maybe......Mike A
long-time turf writer John Pricci's 6/19 column on the horseraceinsider.com was an interesting piece well-worth reading IMHO. Raised the question of why trainer Brian Lynch was randomly drug tested 48 hours before big Belmont weekend....Give it a look.
Still trying to figure out the Poker Stakes Sat...the last thing you want to give Obviously (like Heart to Heart) is an easy lead. Obviously tends to blink when confronted...Thought King Kreesa would at least give him some action up front. No one wanted to press him...I know they don't want to win battle and lose war, but you lost both by letting him get away. Takeover Target reverted back to form....must really need cut in the ground. Force the Pass gave solid effort, but wasn't getting to leader.
good luck to all!
Not much chance I will be swimming in Toronto. Flying in Saturday morning, nearby hotel, then back to the track Sunday. Home after the races.
Canada may figure into next year's Aquanut adventure. I think it is possible to swim in all of the Great Lakes in one day. Just trying to convince the others. Part of the difficulty is that we don't live anywhere near the Great Lakes, and part of the difficulty is that it is fresh water and not salt.
MOOCH, Ned Daly and Anderson,
Heads up on the Queen's Plate! AMIS GIZMO, winner of the recent Plate Trial, is MOOCH'S MKB! He has won 5 of 6, all stakes, all at Woodbine. Even his maiden win was a stakes. Although he never ventured to the U.S., he is a Canadian three-year-old star and probably will be the only MKB in the Queen's Plate. Best keep your eyes on him. :)
Good luck, MOOCH!!!