06/16/2016 12:24PM

Tepin conquers Royal Ascot

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*As many of you have noticed, the "BLOG" tab on the home page has been removed. You can find this blog every week (usually published on Wednesday and Thursday) at drf.com/blogs or by going to the "NEWS" tab and clicking on the "Blogs" link. 
 
*With no other worlds to conquer on this continent, the mighty TEPIN looked overseas for new competition over middle distances on turf, and she couldn't be stopped in Tuesday's Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes over rain-soaked soft ground at Royal Ascot. 
 
Racing without her trusty Lasix and nasal strip, Tepin, the 11 to 2 co-third choice in on-track wagering, utilized her potent tactical speed to grab a good forward position under Julien Leparoux. She surged to the front with a furlong remaining and dug in gamely to deny co-favorite BELARDO, a 4-year-old colt that won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes last month at Newbury. 
 
With SOLOW, arguably the strongest European miler, still sidelined with a leg injury, this wasn't the strongest renewal of the Queen Anne, but it still featured some talented runners. Along with Belardo, the Group 1 winners vanquished by Tepin were ERVEDYA (Prix du Moulin, Coronation Stakes, French 1,000 Guineas), TOORMORE (National Stakes), AMAZING MARIA (Prix Rothschild, Falmouth Stakes), MONDIALISTE (Woodbine Mile) and ESOTERIQUE (Sun Chariot Stakes, Prix Jacques le Marois, Prix Rothschild). 
 
 
It's been a strong year for North American-trained runners overseas. California Chrome grabbed the Dubai World Cup in March, has returned to training in the States and is being pointed for races like the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita. 
 
Tepin, a nose and a head away from being unbeaten in her last 12 races, will take a deserved break before ramping up preparations for a Breeders' Cup Mile defense. A race like the Woodbine Mile is on the radar and trainer Mark Casse mentioned that she might remain in training for a Dubai tilt in 2017. 
 
*Speaking of talented female turf milers, CELESTINE steamrolled twelve others in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes on the Belmont undercard. Trained by Bill Mott, Celestine broke like a shot before settling off 44 to 1 longshot LA BERMA's opening fractions of 23.36 and 46.13. Celestine roared right by La Berma on the turn and was never seriously threatened in the final quarter of a mile. Her final time of 1:31.64, good enough for a career-best 107 Beyer Speed Figure, was 1/100th of a second off the course record. 
 
 
Although Tepin and MISS TEMPLE CITY, generally regarded as the two best female middle-distance runners in the country, were off at Royal Ascot, the normally-reserved Mott mentioned that "They might be lucky they were over there today."
 
A race like the nine-furlong Diana at Saratoga seems like a logical spot for Celestine.
 
*The 123 Beyer earned by FROSTED in the Metropolitan Handicap is the fastest figure since Saint Liam and Commentator popped 123's in the 2005 Whitney. Ghostzapper's 128 (2004 Iselin Handicap over a sloppy track at Monmouth) is the highest number recorded since Beyers were published in the paper. 
 
*Video stakes previews for many of the weekend's major stakes will be available later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos
 
*Matt Bernier, Mike Beer and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4:00 ET on Saturday. You can find us at live.drf.com.
 
*You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
 
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 5/31/16 - 6/6/16:
 
1. MIDNIGHT STORM - 108 - Shoemaker Mile (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 4Jun16-6SA 
2. FULL MAST - 101 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Jun16-3BEL
2. REQUITE - 101 - Parrot Key Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-2GP 
4. BEHOLDER - 100 - Vanity Mile (G1) - 1 Mile - 4Jun16-7SA 
4. MIDDLEBURG - 100 - Red Bank Stakes (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 5Jun16-8MTH
6. EDZACTLY - 99 - Alw 29500N1X - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-9PEN
6. LORD NELSON - 99 - OC 75k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 3Jun16-7SA 
8. HUNT - 98 - Siren Lure Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Jun16-1SA 
8. S'MAVERLOUS - 98 - Mountainview Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Jun16-3PEN
10. ALSVID - 97 - Aristides Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-10CD 
10. JAY GATSBY - 97 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 3Jun16-8BEL 
10. SHAFT OF LIGHT - 97 - OC35k/SAL25k - 6 Furlongs - 4Jun16-6MTH
13. ARROGATE - 96 - Md Sp Wt 56k - 1 1/16 Miles - 5Jun16-2SA 
13. TAKE COVER - 96 - Pennsylvania Governor's Cup - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-2PEN
15. SARATOGA DREAMER - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 2Jun16-7BEL
16. IKE WALKER - 94 - OC 40k/N1X - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Jun16-10SA 
17. BIG MOMMA - 93 - Alw 8000s - 5 Furlongs - 31May16-7PRX
17. DIMENSION (IRE) - 93 - Connaught Cup (G2-C) - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 5Jun16-8WO 
17. DUTY PROPER - 93 - OC7k/SAL5k - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 4Jun16-10CBY
20. CATCH A GLIMPSE - 92 - Penn Mile (G3) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 4Jun16-4PEN
20. CLASS AND CASH - 92 - Alw 44646N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 4Jun16-6PIM
20. DADDY'S BOO - 92 - Alw 16000s - 1 Mile (Turf) - 5Jun16-8CD 
20. LATENT REVENGE - 92 - Mighty Beau Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-9CD 
24. I'M IN A HURRY - 91 - OC7k/SAL5k - 6 Furlongs - 3Jun16-1LS
24. NASHVILLE KNIGHT - 91 - Alw 85802N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 5Jun16-7WO 
24. ROXBURY N OVERTON - 91 - Lyman Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 4Jun16-10PRX
24. RUN FOR LOGISTICS - 91 - OC 30k/N2X -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-5MTH
24. SUCCESSFUL NATIVE - 91 - Bonita Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 4Jun16-3GP 
24. VESTIBULE - 91 - Alw 30000N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 4Jun16-3CBY
 
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 6/7/16 - 6/13/16:
 
1. FROSTED - 123 - Metropolitan Handicap (G1) - 1 Mile - 11Jun16-9BEL
2. FLINSHIRE (GB) - 110 - Manhattan Stakes (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 11Jun16-10BEL
3. CELESTINE - 107 - Just a Game Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 11Jun16-8BEL
4. JOKING - 103 - True North Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - 10Jun16-8BEL
4. POSHKY - 103 - Crystal Water Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 11Jun16-2SA 
6. CAVORTING - 102 - Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Jun16-5BEL
6. DELTA BLUESMAN - 102 - OC 50k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs - 11Jun16-10MTH
6. ECONOMIC MODEL - 102 - Easy Goer Stakes -  1 1/16 Miles - 11Jun16-1BEL
6. PURE SENSATION - 102 - Jaipur Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - 11Jun16-6BEL
10. CREATOR - 99 - Belmont Stakes (G1) - 1 1/2 Miles - 11Jun16-11BEL
10. SHAMAN GHOST - 99 - Brooklyn Stakes (G2) - 1 1/2 Miles - 11Jun16-4BEL
10. ZINDAYA - 99 - Intercontinental Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Turf) - 9Jun16-8BEL
13. BACCELO (BRZ) - 98 - OC c-62k/N2X - 1 Mile - 10Jun16-7SA 
13. CARINA MIA - 98 - Acorn Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile - 11Jun16-3BEL
15. OHIO (BRZ) - 97 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 12Jun16-4SA 
16. DACITA (CHI) - 96 - New York Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 10Jun16-9BEL
16. KAREENA - 96 - Jersey Girl Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 10Jun16-5BEL
16. THEOGONY - 96 - Rags to Riches Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles - 10Jun16-3BEL
19. CASH CONTROL - 95 - Mint Julep Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 11Jun16-11CD 
19. CLEVER ROYAL - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 11Jun16-7SA 
19. FUNDAMENTAL - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 11Jun16-12BEL
19. NO DISTORTION - 95 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 11Jun16-6DEL
19. TOM'S READY - 95 - Woody Stephens Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - 11Jun16-7BEL
24. BOMBS AWAY - 94 - Md Sp Wt 85k - 7 Furlongs - 10Jun16-1BEL
24. CONNECT - 94 - Alw 90000N1X - 1 1/16 Miles - 11Jun16-2BEL
24. DANNIE'S DECEIVER - 94 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 11Jun16-13BEL
24. I'M A CHATTERBOX - 94 - Obeah Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 11Jun16-8DEL
 
*The lifetime past peformances for both Midnight Storm and Frosted are available at the bottom of this blog post.
 
*Baccelo was claimed for $62,500 by trainer David Jacobson from John Sadler.
 
***

Congrats to Curt V. for winning last week's HandiGambling challenge.
 
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
Curt V selected Saturday's fourth race from Churchill Downs for this week's exercise. 
 
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
 
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
 
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2016
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
 
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

 

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FROSTEDMIDNIGHT.pdf843.75 KB
Copy of HG 6 11 16 Belmont Stakes.xls54.5 KB
HGCDMSW.pdf173.42 KB