10/07/2015 4:22PM

Tepin to the Breeders' Cup Mile

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TEPIN stamped her ticket for the Breeders' Cup Mile with an open-lengths triumph in last Saturday's Grade 1 First Lady Stakes contested over a boggy Keeneland turf course.

Sent away the 17 to 10 favorite in the eleven-horse First Lady, Tepin broke nicely from the far outside post under regular rider Julien Leparoux and settled on the outside of stakes-winning pacesetter CARA MARIE without giving up too much ground. Cara Marie set splits of 24.38 and 48.90, but Tepin was merely cruising and she burst to the front after six furlongs in 1:13.69. From there, it was merely a question of how far and how fast (the answer was seven lengths in a mile clocking of 1:37.04, a final time good enough for a career-best 108 Beyer Speed Figure).

According to Trakus data, Tepin polished off her final quarter mile in 23.26 and she was geared down by Leparoux in the final 150 yards. Left in her wake were multiple Group 3-placed CROWLEY'S LAW, Grade 2 winner MY MISS SOPHIA, Irish stakes-winner OUTSTANDING, Cara Marie, Canadian Grade 2 heroine SKY TREASURE, Grade 2 winner SHE'S NOT HERE, Irish stakes-winner EASTER, Grade 3 winner KISS MOON, multiple Canadian Grade 2 winner SOLID APPEAL and JEALOUS CAT.

Bred by Machmer Hall, Tepin was foaled in Kentucky on March 14, 2011. She is by the late multiple Irish Group 3 winner Bernstein. The dam, unraced Life Happened (by Stravinsky), has also foaled multiple Grade 2 dirt route winner Vyjack and Grade 2-placed dirt router Prime Cut (a full brother to Tepin). Life Happened is a half-brother to multiple Grade 3 dirt sprint winner Disco Rico.

Tepin was purchased for $140,000 by Robert Masterson at the 2012 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling auction and sent to trainer Mark Casse's barn. She has been consistently good throughout her three seasons of racing. At two, Tepin finished third in the $100,000 Rags to Riches Stakes going a flat mile at Churchill Downs and polished off her campaign with a win in the Grade 3 Delta Princess, also at eight furlongs. Last year, she placed in the Grade 2 San Clemente Handicap traveling nine furlongs over Del Mar's turf course.

This year, however, Tepin has truly shined for Casse. She looked very good winning her seasonal debut, an 'n2x' optional claimer at Gulfstream Park on March 21. In that race, she tracked the pace while four wide and in between rivals, made an early bid to the front on the far turn and finished the race off with gusto.

That start put her in good enough form to try the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill Downs and Tepin utilized her good tactical speed to grab an uncontested lead en route to a gate-to-wire tally. She backed that win up with a three-wide, pace-tracking triumph in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes over a "good" Belmont turf course.

Although nosed by Hard Not to Like in the nine-furlong, Grade 1 Diana Stakes on July 25 and headed by Dacita in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Stakes at 8 1/2 furlongs on August 29, Tepin ran well both times. She was close to an enervating pace in the Diana and finished best of the forwardly-placed runners, and fended off all but the late-flying Dacita in the Ballston Spa. Perhaps the Diana and Ballston Spa were at distances a bit beyond Tepin's scope.

Tepin has been very good this year - she's less than a length away from being undefeated from six starts in 2015 with five consecutive triple-digit Beyers on her page - but facing males in the Breeders' Cup Mile will be a major ask. First of all, it's quite possible that she relished the soft going at Keeneland last week. Two, she seems more of a "tweener" than a true Breeders' Cup horse. The Filly and Mare Turf is a bit too far for her distance-wise, and she'd have to try the Mile, and some big guns, in order to participate in the World Thoroughbred Championships.

Still, one can't knock her excellent current form, stellar record at one mile, and her overall consistency. She deserves a look at a price come Breeders' Cup Saturday.

***

Here are the WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 9/29/15 - 10/5/15:

1. TONALIST - 109 - Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles - 3Oct15-10BEL
2. APPEALING TALE - 108 - Kelso Handicap (G2) - 1 Mile - 3Oct15-5BEL
2. TEPIN - 108 - First Lady Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 3Oct15-7KEE
4. NUBLADO BLING - 105 - OC 25k/N2Y -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 2Oct15-8RET
5. RUNHAPPY - 104 - Phoenix Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - 2Oct15-8KEE
6. GRAND ARCH - 103 - Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 3Oct15-9KEE
7. AMELIA'S WILD RIDE - 102 - Woodford Stakes (G3) - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 3Oct15-5KEE
8. BEN'S DUCHESS - 100 - L. A. Woman Stakes (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 4Oct15-3SA
8. GOLDEN SABRE - 100 - Durham Cup (G3-C) - 1 1/8 Miles (Polytrack) - 3Oct15-8WO
8. STEPHANIE'S KITTEN - 100 - Flower Bowl Invitational (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 3Oct15-6BEL
11. GOT LUCKY - 98 - Spinster Stakes (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - 4Oct15-9KEE
11. WILD DUDE - 98 - Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) - 6 Furlongs - 3Oct15-8SA
13. MISTER POLLARD - 96 - Brickyard Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 30Sep15-9IND
13. SLIM SHADEY (GB) - 96 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 Mile - 3Oct15-4BEL
13. TAKEOVER TARGET - 96 - Hill Prince Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 3Oct15-9BEL
16. FLASHY MARGARITTA - 95 - Alw 19592NC - 5 Furlongs - 29Sep15-7FE
16. TUTTIPAESI (IRE) - 95 - Suffolk Downs Distaff Turf - About 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 3Oct15-11SUF
18. GALARDONADO - 94 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 1Oct15-10GP
18. GREENPOINTCRUSADER - 94 - Champagne Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile - 3Oct15-8BEL
18. OLD TIMES SAKE - 94 - OC10k/SAL10k - 7 Furlongs - 2Oct15-4GP
21. GIFT BOX - 93 - Md Sp Wt 85k - 1 1/16 Miles - 3Oct15-11BEL
22. CONNEMARA COAST - 92 - OC 50k/C -N - 1 Mile - 2Oct15-9LRL
22. GUNS OF STEEL - 92 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - 1Oct15-5PEN
24. BRIDARIA - 91 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 2Oct15-7KEE
24. COASTLINE - 91 - OC c-62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - 3Oct15-3KEE
24. FIORETTI - 91 - Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) - 6 Furlongs - 3Oct15-6KEE
24. MADE IN DETROIT - 91 - Alw 104400N1X - 1 1/16 Miles - 3Oct15-2BEL
24. SARAGUARO - 91 - Foolish Pleasure Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 3Oct15-9GP

*Tonalist's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*Coastline was claimed for $62,500 by trainer Michelle Lovell from Mark Casse.

***

Dan,
Heard that Mike Beer has left Timeform US and is heading back to DRF. Do you know what position he will have at DRF?
Thanks, Mike

Mike will join Matt Bernier and I with video and written handicapping previews. We're very glad to have him back.

***

Video stakes analyses for many of the weekend's major stakes races from Keeneland, Belmont and Santa Anita can be found later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

Mike Beer and I will cover some of Saturday's action at Belmont, Keeneland and Santa Anita beginning at 3pm ET.

***

Congrats to Curt V. for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling event. Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Curt V. recommended Saturday's seventh race at Keeneland for this week's exercise.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
---------------------------------

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

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Tonalist.pdf721.37 KB
Copy of Formblog Shadwell 10-3-15.xls16.69 KB
HGKEEMSW.pdf130.97 KB