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Taris, Breeders' Cup 2015?
If TARIS stays healthy, she will be one of the best filly and mare sprinters of 2015. She's already one of the best in training this year.
If you don't believe me, take a look at what she did to the field in last Saturday's Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland.
The main track at Keeneland did not favor speed. Taris, a 3-year-old filly, was the only gate-to-wire winner on the main track, and she did it with devastating ease. At first glance, it appeared that the riders of the other speed horses had taken strong holds and allowed Taris the lead.
I don't think that was the case. Taris zipped the first quarter in the seven-furlong Raven Run in 22.45, completed the half in 44.80, and opened up on a solid field to win by nine lengths in 1:21.32. Taris received a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. She simply outran them.
"With her, the biggest thing is just to get her to relax," jockey Clinton Potts told track publicity after the race. "She was cool as a cucumber the whole way around there, just doing her business. She’s really maturing, coming into herself. She makes my job easy.”
Taris is unbeaten in sprint races as she's taken all four starts by a combined 34 lengths. Her only loss came in the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes at 1 1/16 miles. She reportedly injured her shins in that race, and was subsequently freshened for six months.
Trainer Todd Beattie quickly dismissed wheeling Taris back in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, and opted for more long-range goals. The Grade 1 Madison Stakes at April looks like a strong major objective and, of course, the 2015 Breeders' Cup will be held at Keeneland.
After the post positions are drawn next week for the Breeders' Cup, I'll put up the HandiGambling past performances, and will put up a few horses for discussion.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 10/14/14 - 10/20/14:
1. TARIS - 110 - Raven Run Stakes (G2) - 7 Furlongs - 18Oct14-9KEE
2. HILLSTAR (GB) - 104 - Canadian International (G1-C) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 19Oct14-6WO
3. JUST THE JUDGE (IRE) - 102 - E. P. Taylor Stakes (G1-C) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 19Oct14-10WO
3. KHARAFA - 102 - Mohawk Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 18Oct14-4BEL
3. W. B. SMUDGE - 102 - OC c-25k/N1X - 6 Furlongs - 14Oct14-8IND
6. NEVER LATE FLYER - 99 - OC 20k/N2X - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 18Oct14-7RET
7. CASPAR NETSCHER (GB) - 98 - Nearctic Stakes (G2-C) - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - 19Oct14-8WO
7. RAPSCALLION - 98 - Alw 59915N2X - 1 3/16 Miles - 16Oct14-6KEE
7. TAKE IT LIKE A MAN - 98 - Clm c-32000 - 7 Furlongs - 17Oct14-5KEE
10. MOONLIGHT SONG - 97 - Hudson Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 18Oct14-10BEL
10. NORTH SLOPE - 97 - Bowl Game Stakes - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 19Oct14-9BEL
10. RED OUTLAW - 97 - Uniformity Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 19Oct14-6SA
13. DISCREET MARQ - 96 - Ticonderoga Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 18Oct14-9BEL
13. EFFINEX - 96 - Empire Classic Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 18Oct14-8BEL
15. HOLIDAY STAR - 95 - Sycamore Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 16Oct14-8KEE
15. MY SAMURAI WARRIOR - 95 - Clm 50000(50-40) - 6 Furlongs - 18Oct14-2SA
15. TENANGO - 95 - OC 65k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 16Oct14-8DEL
15. ZEE BROS - 95 - Alw 58045N2X - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 17Oct14-6KEE
19. HEITAI - 94 - Alw 45700NC - 5 Furlongs - 17Oct14-10DED
19. IMAHIT - 94 - Oklahoma Classic Cup Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 17Oct14-10RP
19. WHITE ROSE - 94 - Dowager Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 19Oct14-8KEE
19. J J GARBAR - 94 - OC 50k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 17Oct14-7HAW
19. RICO CAPOTE - 94 - Alw 19500N2R - 6 Furlongs - 16Oct14-8FL
24. EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH - 93 - Maryland Million Classic - 1 1/8 Miles - 18Oct14-10LRL
24. ELNAAWI - 93 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 18Oct14-8KEE
24. HILLABY - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 19Oct14-4WO
24. LA VERDAD - 93 - Iroquois Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 18Oct14-5BEL
24. PRINCESS VIOLET - 93 - Empire Distaff Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - 18Oct14-7BEL
24. TALK SHOW MAN - 93 - Maryland Million Turf Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 18Oct14-9LRL
*The lifetime past performances for TARIS are available at the bottom of this blog post.
*W. B. SMUDGE was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Matt Kordenbrock from Marvin Johnson.
*TAKE IT LIKE A MAN was claimed for $32,000 by trainer Chuck Peery from Kellyn Gorder.
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
The video previews for most of this weekend's graded stakes action will be available later in the week at the following link:
Congrats to MIKE O. for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling race.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.
Let's go with Friday's ninth race from Keeneland as this week's exercise.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
- Please start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.
- You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .
- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race goes to horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1
50$ Ex box 1-6
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
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Annie, Congrats on the $46, lol! (Yes, it's me, as well as Nancy B.) knm
KNM, Oh for pete's sake. That is you, isn't it. I don't think I ever knew your first name. I thought it was from the other Blue Thong with the same first name. Thanks again. Annie
KNM, I did check my e-mail. One from Cathy and one from Nancy. None from you though. Or were you just making sure I saw those. :) Thank you. Annie
What do you get by putting Baffert's longer shot over his favored entry? $46, that's what you get. :) Annie
Bernard Great job on the horses from Europe – I know compiling that type of information can be daunting. Do not feel pressure if other outlets call. For me it is not my brother, but my lovely wife who as we approach Breeder’s Cup chants under her breath, “Redrum, Redrum” which of course is “Murder” backwards and reference to Jack Nicholson’s character going crazy in the Shining. LemonSoupKid As stated multiple times on the blog, the words free and DRF generally do not belong in the same sentence. :) I am not aware of any place you can find the DRF PP in PDF form for free. There are sites you can get the Brisnet or Equibase ones, but that’s it as far as I know. I did not purchase them as I was hoping to get the old fashioned paper form for those days. Annie This 2YO crop is very fast so far and as we all know, fast young horses are hard to keep healthy and on the track. I thought American Pharaoh looked outstanding I could easily see why someone would have singled him. Baffert has a long history of his less hyped entrant winning (think New Year’s Day), but I really like Daredevil here. Also, I know Fed Biz is in the best form of his life and he fits the profile pretty well, but he has been terrible in this race the last two years. I also think he will be a fairly short price. Also speaking of prices paid for horses, I do not know if I have seen it on the blog, but Chicquita was purchased last November for $8 million. Turnbackthealarm I keep reading all over the place about Cigar Street and I just do not see it. He is rapidly becoming a wise guy horse and that makes even more skeptical. Caseyjeaux As far as having uneven legs, I think it is a function of what the differences are. The inside leg on the turn has the bear considerably more stress, while the outside leg has to move through the range of motion quicker as it has to travel further. So it depends on what those differences between the two legs are as to what effect it would have on a left handed or right handed turn. Alan Put Willie in the mile race.
Atta boy RonZ :) I knew you would confirm my outlandish claim :) Because you're my official outlandish claim fact checker :) I like that . The players wanted free market capitalism . The owners colluded to remain a communist octopus organization . The owners succeeded. I knew a few of the players as well as a few of the scabs . The scabs I knew were just as good as the big leaguers :) They just got stuck behind somebody that got there first . The owners are always the Un-American jerks . Don't take my word for it . Watch the Ken Burns documentary " Baseball " . Did you see Jackie Robinson hit that ball ??? HE STOLE HOME !!! And that ain't all .... It's a beautiful day for a ballgame for a ballgame today the fans are out to get a ticket or two from Walla Walla Washington to Kalamazoo It's a beautiful day for a home run but even a triples okay We're gonna cheer and boo and raise a hulabaloo !!! At the ballgame.. today- ay -ay at the ballgame today !! All that being said I wouldn't buy a ticket to a MLB game . I like High School & College games where I get to "discover " prospects and visit with old friends that are still coaching . JJ
JJ Tell me again who can ride the dip good. Okiesharp
Anyone know if you can get a reduced price for Fri/Sat classic pdf PPs? Or are they free somewhere?
I like Willie . Give him every chance to show what he might have. He's got a lot of 1s . A lot of the best kind of 1s . I like the same race as Pat 8f dirt . TBTA - I can see how that could work out for you . I just use all 3 and maybe another here and there.I'm glad it helped you a little . That's why I posted it:) JJ
TBTA, PLEASE keep commenting! I don't get HRTV - at least, not at any particular time. They just show it when a spot opens up! I seriously need your observations to complete my handicapping, lol! knm