12/03/2009 12:48PM

A Tale of Two Carries

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Wednesday's two pick-six carryovers at Aqueduct and Hollywood Park unfolded in fascinatingly parallel fashion. While the Hollywood carryover and subsequent pool was roughly four times larger than the one at the Big A, there were precisely 122 live combinations going into the last leg of both:


In both cases, a 3-2 favorite won the last leg, leaving 46 winners at Aqueduct at $3,523 and 50 at Hollywood for $16,540, when the payoffs could have been as high as single winners of $161,536 at Aqueduct and $824,558 at Hollywood:


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It's interesting how differently the results lined up to produce the same number of live combinations into the last leg. At Aqueduct, there were four favorites in the $3.50 to $6.20 range and one $56.50 bomb in the only race of the sequence that lacked a standout. At Hollywood, after the first two winners paid $4.80 and $5.60, there were $16.00, $8.80 and $12.00 winners that blew up the potential payouts more than a 27-1 winner did at Aqueduct. They may have been trickier than the win mutuels suggest: The $12 winner, for example, was the longest shot in a four-horse field.

The willpays also illustrate how win-pool favorites are even heavier favorites in the pick-6, where the winning favorites in the last leg were effectively shorter prices than their 3-2 odds in the mutuels, and the top four choices accounted for 96 and 102 of the 122 live combos in each. There are also anomalies that skew attempts to identify value or correlate win prices to payoffs, such as there being three live tickets at Aqueduct to a 66-1 shot but only one live ticket to a 12-1 shot.

I didn't get involved in either one, but my hat is off to those who navigated them successfully. The Hollywood players got a decent double-the-parlay payoff but the Aqueduct winners had to be a little disappointed -- not just because the payoff barely beat the parlay, but also because when you get a $56.50 horse home in the second leg, you have to think you're looking at more than $3,523 if you get through the next four legs. Pick-6 players have gotten smarter and smarter over the years. There was a time when a $56.50 winner, even in the midst of five favorites (though only one of them odds-on) would have meant far fewer than 122 live tickets into the last leg.

Barry More than 1 year ago
I too could not understand why NYRA has not installed VLT's at AQU until I heard business at Yonkers is not what the track had hoped for. While some racinos are making 2 to 3 hundred a day from each machine, Yonkers barely make 100 per day. VLT's at AQU could be a losing proposition for both tracks.
garyw More than 1 year ago
Steve I see jeff mullins has a horse in todays race of the day.After being banned from N.Y. its a disgrace that hollywood allows him to run.I know that each jurisdiction has its own rules but until a national policy exists to prevent cheats like mullins to continue to race racing will continue its long term death spiral to oblivion.
Bochalls More than 1 year ago
Before Zenyatta can parade in NY she has an engagement as queen of the Endymion Mardi Gras parade in New Orleans...word has it that Rachel will be waiting for her in the viewing stand and then it is on!...good job on Blinks Off Steve. You and Beyer both have great voices. As an ex radio guy (no fargin money!) you two missed your true calling. You and Andy have enough on your plate, but a radio show would rule.
Jay in Seattle More than 1 year ago
I am happy to say my father and I won the pick 6 at hollywood that day! Not a bad payoff. Steven, where do you find the stats to find out how many live tickets there were in the last leg of a pick 6 pool? Do you just do the math? Sorry if too obvious a question.
Jeff Tatus More than 1 year ago
Saddle_up... I would have to second that because what you wrote was exactly what I was thinking when I read the blog. Ticketmaker is another strong weapon in multiple race betting... because you can stretch your budget further. I always feel I have an advantage against the Cali P6 players because of "Exotic Betting" and my own forms that I made from reading it... but not so with the Belmont, 'Toga, & Aqueduct players; they're more educated. [Jeff: I just copy down the willpays and do the math. It was easy Wednesday because you had one-winner payoffs in both pools so could figure out the # of live tickets. They don't compute out to the penny, which I attribute to Canadian-currency adjustments.] Steve just made everything easier w/Ticketmaker (for all the people who tasted success from reading Exotic Betting). My real question to Steve is, "How do you get the access to this information and the number of live tickets?" Also, how did the Pick 3 in the Fairgrounds 8th race pay more than what was in the pool?
hoofprintsandhorseplay More than 1 year ago
Thank you Mr Crist - Your wisdom is always appreciated. Vote Zenyatta for HOTY
Mike D More than 1 year ago
To Rawlawltd: "OTB is also pressing the Legislature to change a mandate the corporation blames for its losses, under which it must pass much of its revenue to the racing industry, the city and the state before it can pay its own costs [said Mr. Sandy Frucher, the new CEO of NYC-OTB]" ... NYT Dec.4, '09. What does that tell YOU? I think you're on to something here.
Saddle Up More than 1 year ago
...Any suggestions for NTRA's 2009 Moment of the Year? SU
rawlawltd More than 1 year ago
Are any other NYRA track players starting to get that uneasy feeling with the bankruptcy filing of OTB?? That, coupled with the criminal refusal to award a racino operator for the Big A are making me search for the conspiracy theories again. I don't think the state wants to share the revenue & is set to bleed NYRA once again. My radar tells me they'll be coming after the horseplayer to fund this as per usual. Can anyone tell me why the trainers & owners haven't filed suit to get the racino? I wouldn't care, but for the fact that it's us they're going to gouge again. Look out, up there on the grassy knoll!!! It's the Governor & friends & they're pointing at YOU!!!
Alan More than 1 year ago
Smarter, indeed. Had 5 of 6, missing the $50+ winner and expected $400-500, 5 of 6 payoff. Instead a whopping $14. About 5-years ago, a $50 winner won a leg of the P6 and 5 of 6 paid $500. I would agree, by this comparison, players are smarter.