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Tale o' the Carryovers
Last updated: 5:56 p.m.
2:27 pm: They're at the gate for Leg 1 at Aqueduct...With 1 MTP they've bet $705k on top of the $205k carryover. A little under $2k of that is mine. I put most of my eggs in the Aqueduct basket.
2:37 pm: She's My Sunshine ($5.30), 2-1 onscreen during the race and 8-5 at the wire, beats 5-1 Alyssa Givonna to keep everyone alive after one leg, including 13 of my 14 tickets. A few anxious moments as 60-1 Western Decision appeared to be opening up on the field around the turn, but she tired late and She's My Sunshine wore them down from the outside.
2:45 pm: Here we go again: Favored Colin's Princess at 5-2 and 20-1 Reachforthecastle are scratched at the gate in race 4 at Keeneland, first leg of the pick six.
2:50 pm: Saved by the fave? Holiday Cruise, favored at 2-1 following two gate scratches, wins the opening leg at Keeneland to bail out those who backed the two gate scratches. My $672 play is now alive twice since all my tickets began "2,7/." It may have worked out this time but this is yet another reminder of why we need an alternate-selection mechanism. [Update: I'm completely confused. Commenters and the TVG commentators are saying you get a refund rather than a switch to the PT fave in the first leg of a p6 at Keeneland, but official results are showing the scratched horses (2&3) as "winners" in the first leg.]
3:06 pm: Bebob ($4.80), coming off a last-out Beyer of 90 in a field where no one else had exceeded a 79, rolls home by seven lengths. Buy a Personality, hammered to 3-1 changing barns from Dominic Galluscio to Bruce Levine, looks like a winner on the stretch turn but takes a funny step and loses all his momentum, continues on for second.
3:18 pm: Terrifany (5/2), Wesley Ward firster in filly baby race, homebred co-owned by Joe Pesci and produced by the mare Pesci, wires the field at 5-2 in Leg 2 at Keeneland. I singled second-best Pletcher firster Iberian Gate on my main ticket to I'm down to one backup ticket that goes 3,5/1,7/1,5,8,9/1,6 the rest of the way.
3:33 pm: Down to a thread at Aqueduct as 7-2 Volos, a chronic stopper I didn't care for at all, wins by 5 3/4 as all my clever ideas like 12-1 distant runner-up Metulla tank. Down to a 2x1x3 backup ticket: 3,10/7/1,4,8.
3:52 pm: Nistle's Crunch (8/5) is tons the best winning Leg 3 at Keeneland. Two faves and a second choice so far at both tracks but I'm thin at both: 2x1x3 at Aqu, 2x4x2 at Kee.
4:05 pm: Dontcha just love it when your only two horses hook up through fast fractions right out of the gate in a turf race? Fortunately, Raw Silk($5.80) turns back Tessitura and is so much the best that she rebreaks and draws clear to keep my thin, chalky ticket alive in Leg 4 at Aqueduct.
4:17 pm: Scared to death when Victorianna takes the lead a quarter of a mile into a Polytrack race but she's good enough to win on the front end in Leg 4 at Keeneland as the chalk parade marches on in both carryovers.
4:32 pm: Cosmic gets the job done at even money despite running like a goofball through the stretch, lugging in but just getting past 10-1 Sebastian Cat. Four faves and a second choice so far. Let's see if I can get my money back by finishing this thing off with the 1,4 or 8 in the finale.
4:38 pm: Here comes the Aqueduct will-pays.....Ick. $907 to the 1, $1015 to the 4, $2951 to the 8.
4:48 pm: Phew. Alwajeeha (9/2) looks like she won the photo in the Appalachian, leaving me alive to the 1 and 6 in the Keeneland finale...
5:02 pm: One down, one to go. At least the $1,015 beat the $907 at Aqueduct. Between that, consos and refunds, I'm perilously close to even. Still no will-pays from Keeneland on TVG or the NYRA website with 8 MTP. is it because of the opening-leg refunds?
5:15 pm: 6 of 6 at Aqueduct, 5 of 6 at Keeneland, and a net loser for the day. Was alive to the 1 & 6 in the Kentucky finale, both paying around $8k, and looked a likely winner with either one of them approaching the wire, but both hung and along came Matz second-timer A. P. Fortune to blow past everyone for an $18,342 payoff. I think it gets worse and that I actually would have had them both twice, because I got four rather than two consos and Keeneland is reporting the entire pre-scratch pool as the handle on the bet, suggesting you DID scratch into the post-time fave in the first leg.
Oh well. Plenty of action and I'd do it again. And now I believe it's time for a cocktail.
Steve- Read your drf plus article about Derby qualifications, and totally agree about adding alsos. (The other option is to make it financialy unfeasible for a horse to scratch without a vet's ok, but what vet is gonna refuse a trainer who says his horse has a health issue) Couple of minor (or not so minor wrinkles) I'd like to suggest: 1st, go ahead and use the same point schedule as the Derby Fantasy Challenge with these wrinkles: First, the scale would be used as is only on 3 yo dirt (or synthetic) around 2 turns (or a mile-take your pick) which are open to horses of both sexes. All other graded races count 1/2 points (turf, sprints, 2yo races, graded fillie races, etc) That would mean (in theory at least) that the horses who've recently run well around 2 turns (or at least this year) would be most likely to get in the race. Your thoughts?
If anyone is interested in the numbers for thr derby comtenders from the formula I posted earlier. Here's a url for a page on Dr. Roman's site. He computes the slope and intercept for the top 25 derby conteders. See the section labeled pace. Basically the lower the slope value the more likely the horse is to carry his speed the additional distance of the derby. You can also use the formula to predict when a horse will be likely to strech out and improve. The beyer speed figures assume all horses decelerate the same for a given class level. On the average they do. But there are times when plugging the numbers for horse into the formula will predict a horses speed figure will go up at a new distane. http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2008/2008_top_25.htm
Fred, Here are the stats for Keeneland: Races: 262 110+ BSF: 0 100+ BSF: 3 Avg BSF: 81 The three 100+ BSF's: 10-6-2007 Wild Gams (101) 04-09-2008 Carnack's Choice (107) 04-11-2008 Informed Decision (101) Here are the stats for Del Mar: Races: 281 110+ BSF: 0 100+ BSF: 4 Avg BSF: 79.49 07-21-07 Sun Boat (101) 07-25-07 Publication (102) 07-29-07 In Summation (107) 08-19-07 Greg's Gold (106) The percentage for BSF's of 100+ for these tracks is a combined 1.3% (7/543) These two look like the stats for the two Cushion tracks. Higher overall average BSF's but "clipped" at the top. For comparison, here are the stats for Saratoga and Belmont: Saratoga (189) 110+ BSF = 3 100+ BSF = 26 % 100 BSF = 13.76% Avg BSF = 85.03 Belmont (547) 110+ BSF = 10 100+ BSF = 59 % 100 BSF = 10.79% Avg BSF = 82.67 Interestingly Del Mar historically ran about 80% of the 100+ BSF's that Saratoga ran. Now it is 15%. Hope this gives you some food for thought on this subject.
Let's see, the come home time was 12.43, divided by 1.455*log(distance). Now take the derivative of pi*(stride length) with respect to distance, divided by the Beyer added to the speed of light. Then take the half-mile pace of 47.29 and add 93.532773*sqrt(traction in the surface/the angle of the banked turns)+length of the stretch-speed variant^7. Add log(quarter-mile time/3.44) for every bump. Of course, the weight of the blinkers has to be multiplied by the arctan of the 6f split, and we have to somehow factor in the possibility that some horses may be spooked when they hear the track announcer's voice over the PA. That deducts 0.02 seconds per foot. What has handicapping evolved, or devolved, in to? Are you guys actually serious with these calculations? Isn't part of the problem that handicappers have become so heavily dependent on numbers and figures that they have become totally incapable of watching and evaluating races for themselves? Does anyone use their eyes anymore, or has that become a lost art? Did you guys need numbers to know that Ghostzapper was good? Would your opinion of Curlin be any different if he was getting 85s in every race? In the old days, nobody needed a number or a figure to know that Secretariat was great. Gee, was that Belmont a 139 or a 137? Come on guys, get real.
I think flip dawson should start his own BLOG! I love his entries!
Everybody wrote about how hard those P6's were going to be, and then they both come out chalky with no bombs..All Thursday big carryover 'capping wasted...
Beyers on turf don't work all that well for the same reason they don't work well on synthetic, or in races on dirt where the pace is too slow. They're based on fatigue. There is a formula that validates Beyers Speed Figure Charts. log T=log b + Mlog D T is tim in seconds D is distance in furlongs B is a constant related to Class M is a fatigue Factor This was devloped for Human Athletes but it also works for horses. I use it it predicting which horses are best suited to the derby distance. DR. Steven Romamn has an execellent article on his web site where he uses it to validate Secratariats Time in the Preakness. Th point is that the beyers assume rightly so in dirt races that the winning horse is putting out a maximum effort and that the rate of fatigue as distance increases is linear. In turf races and synthetic races this isn't the case. The Jockeys slow thier horses down considerably so they will have reserve energy for the strech. This also effects the final times, and messes up any speed figure based solely on final time. The solution I think is to look at finsihing time as well as overall speed in sythetic and turf races, and come up with a figure that reflects both.
Since I am totally confused by the state of today's horse racing, I purchased Flips's recommended book. Albert G. Illytch,How to Pick Winners, $1.99 on Barners and Noble dot com. Maybe now I will have all the Secret Winners or what ever they are called. What the hell, I have nothing to lose.
I’ve read Ainslie, Beyer, Crist, Davidowitz, Heller, Quinn, etc to hone my skills…Harvey Pack to realize it does no good...and the Muppet Movie Book looking for some embedded secrets. But now for $2.95 + shipping I have coming the last piece of the puzzle, the secret play… Illich, Al George for Arco New York Al Illich's How to Pick Winners : America's Most Famouse Race Horse Handicapper Reveals His Million Dollar / $1,000,000 Secrets of Successful, Consistent Betting [handicap, Betting Techniques, Methods, Explained, How to Play, Daily Double, Read Charts] I’ll soon be on Balsam Lake with Flip…or if it doesn’t work, who better to get buried by than a man who can put a lasting monument on one’s expired bankroll. Go Flip!
Thanks, Waz. Good idea to print the KL press release. OK. How many of us tossed those "losing" Keeneland P6 tickets, before reading the above.? Don't be shy. 'Fess up. Reminds me of that wonderful, infamous AQ race years ago with Cop A Kiss getting DQ'ed and then getting unDQ'ed - and then dozens of patrons abandoned all dignity and dove headfirst into the trash cans, looking for "losing" tickets. From memory; details - aside from the garbage can high diving - are not necessarily accurate. Corrections, if applicable, are welcome. I'm still steamed about Ima Rabbit getting DQ'ed up in Saratoga @ ten years ago. If anyone else also got ripped with this fiasco, do contribute your own thoughts on the matter. Time has not healed all wounds.