04/02/2008 3:57PM

Swaps, Beyers, Dutrow, etc.

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Dan, please tell me what I'm missing.
She's All Eltish runs 1:51.80 and Big Brown gets 1:48.16 35 minutes later.  That's a difference of 3.64 seconds.  Using the rule of thumb that one second equals 5 lengths, BB ran about 18 lengths faster than SAE.  I believe Beyer figs are approx 1 and 1/2 points per length in routes, I've got a spread of about 27 points between BB and SAE.  Yet BB gets a 106 and SAE a 90, a difference of only 16 points.  I've read all 3 of Andy Beyer's books and I don't remeber any mention of adjusting speed figs for pace - only the raw time adjusted for the speed of the surface.  What gives?
Tommy Triple



Dan,
I have a question pertaining to your comment below.

Race 2 received an 84 Beyer.  Race 9 earned an 89 Beyer.  I'm assuming that the figuremaker projected an 89 based on the slow pace of the ninth race.

This contradicts a direct question I asked Andrew Beyer during a Q&A session at the Washington Post several years ago.  My question pertained to his Beyer numbers and if pace was taken into account in determining the number.  His answer was that final time was the only deciding factor in the numbers.  He did state that the variant could possibly change during the course of the card due to changing track conditions.  Since the race in question was on the rubber the track variant should not have been adjusted.
Am I missing something here?
PhilFromBrooklyn



Mark Hopkins, one of Andy Beyer's most trusted figuremakers, mentioned that final times are the determining point for Beyer Speed Figures, but that the final times of some races are "out-of-whack" compared with others on a given card.  An abnormally fast or slow pace could contribute to such a weird final time.
When a race looks funny, as was the case with the second race at Santa Anita on Friday and the Bonnie Miss at Gulfstream on Saturday, a projected number is assigned. 

The Beyer Speed Figures aren't merely mechanical numbers.  They are sometimes tweaked by the figuremaker/handicapper.


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"Diamond Stripes...raced without medication"That's rich.

Next time, for the sake of accuracy and context, you might want to say that [whichever Dutrow horse] raced without medication which can be discerned by current testing technology...
Tinky


We've been so fortunate here at FormBlog over the last few months with posts from members of the Zayat and Mott families, horsemen, and our usual racing enthusiasts, fans, and excellent handicappers.   Finally, we've found someone, Tinky, that can make the 'L' and 'B' appear from our magical invisible formula that we spray on foreign past performances.  Perhaps it's the pixie dust or the magic wand, I don't know for sure.  Or, he is one of the diligent drug testers for the Emirates Racing Authority, and he is breaking a story for us. 
You see, Tinky, for the sake of accuracy and context, I'm going to say that Diamond Stripes didn't run with raceday Lasix and Bute, and he hasn't tested positive yet for any banned substances.  Therefore, for the sake of not being sued for libel or slander (vicstu, svhill, and others on my "Dream Team" can make the designation), I'm not going to make assumptions on whether a horse was "juiced" or not until it's been conclusively proven.

By the way, I'll see you at Belmont in a couple of weeks for the Peter Pan.


Has Dutrow been suspended for positives in the past?  Yes, he has.  Does that make him a cheater.  Yes, in those cases, it does make him a cheater.  But, in this case, there is no evidence of any wrongdoing.  There's only hearsay and conjecture. 


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Dan,
Have you heard anything about Vaulcluse, the 3YO filly who won the Suncoast at Tampa awhile back? She was 23-1 in Pool Two of the Oaks Future wager, but there hasn't been a word about her since, and she is not a wagering interest in Pool Three.
Mike


Jen Morrison, a great friend of racing, is reporting that Vaulcluse suffered a small condylar fracture, and will be out for several months.  Jen pens an excellent blog, and you can read all of her thoughts at the link below:

http://jen-thoroughbreds.blogspot.com/2008/03/two-years.html


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1.  Similar to the comment lines for claims and trainer changes in the PP's, is there any chance DRF can add a notation when a horse is gelded?  This is the exact type of data that DRF should provide.
Also, wondering if anyone knows whether or not Agnes Gold's dance card is full in Fla (and if so, the quality of mares) because I really want to see some grandchildren of Sunday Silence compete in the states. 
Best of luck to y'all.
rr


First off, welcome to the party!  We would love to add first-time geldings to our past performances, but the reporting of this information is very, very spotty.  Horsemen report changes to the stewards, and then the racing office takes its time sending the information to the Jockey Club.  Then, after all that, we receive the information, usually weeks late.  California seems to be the best state as it pertains to reporting first time geldings.  You'll see them listed in the program. 
I don't really know much about MACs so I can't be of much help on your second question. 

Here is Agnes Gold's webpage from Lambholm South:

http://www.lambholmsouth.com/images/lambholmsouth.com/default1.aspx?contentname=horse&horseid=757&thumbsize=_small


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Let's talk about Harlem Rocker, Salute the Sarge, and some top tens in tomorrow's blog.

Take care,

Dan