05/11/2010 12:17PM

Supersaver Pricing

Email

Will Super Saver be bet like a standout Derby winner in a motley Preakness field on Saturday, or will we see the same kind of weird squashed-together odds we did at Churchill Downs 10 days ago?

SuperSaver

It's more than an idle question, because the answer may determine whether you want to take a shot against him as an overbet favorite at less than 2-1 or if he's so lukewarm a choice that he becomes an appetizing proposition against a generally unimposing field of opponents?

Things that will make people bet him: a 2 1/2-length Derby victory; the absence of the tough-trip Derby runner-up, Ice Box; Calvin Borel's popularity with the general public; 4 of the last 8 Derby winners returned to win the Preakness; he's lightly raced and improving from start to start.

Things that will make people bet against him: he won the Derby on a sloppy track with a perfect trip; while Borel won last year's Preakness, he is widely perceived as providing a bigger edge at Churchill; the Derby earned a mediocre Beyer of 104, the second lowest in 20 years; the trend of overbetting longshots and underbetting favorites that we saw at Churchill.

Here are the Preakness odds for the last 25 Derby winners who contested the Preakness, in order of their parimutuel popularity at Pimlico:

*It's interesting, if not necessarily significant, that of the nine Derby winners in this span who went off at 1.80-1 or less, only two won, while the rest of the group was 7 for 16.

*Obviously, when a huge longshot wins the Derby, bettors remain skeptical: The only three Derby winners in this sample who went off at at 6-1 or more in the Preakness were the three longest-priced Derby winners in that time: Charismatic (31-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Mine That Bird (50-1).

Mike W. More than 1 year ago
Looking at lucky is the best pony in the field if he can clear the pack. I would like to think Baffert will break him hard out of the gate get clear of trouble and let him run. Super Saver is nothing great.
jercek More than 1 year ago
Stockwell, Typically speaking most people don't say the jockey manhandled a horse to a perfect trip. Face it, some horses aren't scared to run in close quarters and that alone is worth 5 lengths in a crowded field. If you want to ignore it fine, I'll take your money every time.
dan c More than 1 year ago
This race is simple. Super saver on the easy lead and Lookin at lucky stalking trying to get by in the last furlong. its that simple. The rest of the field has NO chance.
prizboy More than 1 year ago
Anyone who thinks this horse will be 7/2 is dreaming......He will be more like 7/5 on the board, due to the lack of the field itself. I am of the personal belief that Lookin at Lucky will be terribly overbet in the race also. He was the favorite in the derby and all you hear about with this horse is trouble trip trouble trip trouble trip. So I guess its time for this horse to get a "Perfect Trip"??? "Lucky" if thats what you want to call him ran 1 decent dirt race with his best running coming on synthetics. I say he is the horse to leave out on Saturday, a la Peace Rules and other 2nd choices before him. Baffert was "52%" to run this horse to begin with and was quoted as saying "we felt we owed it to the horse" to run in this spot. My guess is he is not going to the Belmont Win Lose or Draw and will be pointing to the big money synth races this summer with this horse. Super Saver had his favorite track with its favorite son sitting on him at Churchill. You want less than 2/1???? Good Luck to you. I will take ANYONE else. priz
Ernie More than 1 year ago
Calvin + soft competition= heavy fave. Probably be somewhere in between jeff_moss and jt, 7-5ish
beerbelly More than 1 year ago
Here's a fiscally prudent wager on the Preakness from the Department of Risk Mitigation: $200 Win Super Saver $400 Place Super Saver $1200 Show Super Saver If SS runs 3rd & pays $3.00 to show you break even. If SS runs 2nd to any horse other than LOL & pays $3.60 to place you make a profit of $720. If SS wins & pays $5.60 you make a profit of $1280. Not exciting enough? If Super Saver wins you have $1280 to play Pick 4s to beat him in the Belmont. Hmmm...
HorseRun More than 1 year ago
if Pletcher did not win the Derby, he would not be here, that Baffert is still entered here with Lucky is enough for me !
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
50% strike rate for Derby Winners returning in the Preakness at 9-5 to 3-1 odds, the range where SS will likely fall (due mostly to large field). BUT, Monachos, by same sire as SS, was the only Derby Champ to run off the board. The winner that year? Baffert's Point Given. Signs point to LAL. Do not be concerned with Garcia, Gomez has ridden LAL horribly, his trip can not get any worse.
retroray More than 1 year ago
Mister Beerbelly: What money management class did you miss? Your bet should be as follows: $1,200 WIN Super Saver; $400 PLACE on Lookin at Lucky and $200 Exacta Box($100 on Lucky and Saver). Better odds equal beter payment.
Mr_preakness More than 1 year ago
Ok, Super Savor will not have the lead, Pady O Prodo will controll the lead from start to the last 1/16 of a mile and be passed up by the Prince with Super Savor getting 3rd. Bank on it!