03/27/2013 1:44PM

Strong SoCal Filly and Mare Turfers

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There are some very good filly and mare turf runners in Southern California right now. 

TIZ FLIRTATIOUS, never off the board from nine starts, used her excellent tactical speed and a recency advantage to fend off the classy LADY OF SHAMROCK in the Grade 2 Santa Ana Stakes on March 24.  Second in the Grade 1 Matriarch last November, Tiz Flirtatious ran her last three furlongs in 34.24, according to Formulator, with a final eighth in 10.94.  She got the jump on Lady of Shamrock and that may have made all the difference. 

One-run closer Lady of Shamrock, winner of the American Oaks at Betfair Hollywood Park on July 14 and the Del Mar Oaks on August 18, was one of the more underrated campaigners in 2012.  Unraced since a tough trip in her first try against older runners in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare turf, Lady of Shamrock flew home in the stretch and is capable of another big year for trainer John Sadler. 

While no match for the top two on this day, third-place finisher QUIET OASIS should improve from her effort.  This was her first race since undergoing knee surgery last July and she just missed in last year's Grade 1 Gamely Stakes at Hollywood. 

Throw in the sidelined mares RHYTHM OF LIGHT and QARAABA and it should be a very interesting summer for the turf distaffers out west.

*Lost in the shadow of last week's Kentucky Derby preps was the maiden win of a potentially stakes-class sophomore sprinter. 

ZEE BROS, well-clear of the show runner when second in his career debut on February 9, graduated in gate-to-wire fashion going seven furlongs in 1:22.08 for trainer Bob Baffert.  By multiple Grade 1 route winner Brother Derek out of an unplaced half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Sweet Nanette, Zee Bros was purchased by Zayat Stables for $260,000 at OBS last April after breezing two furlongs in 21 seconds. 

He may have been aided by a Santa Anita track that was kind to speed, but Zee Bros put up a triple-digit Beyer and is very quick from the gate. 

Runner-up MASTER APPEAL may be the most talented maiden in the country.  Trained by James Cassidy, the $240,000 yearling, a full brother to Kentucky Derby runner-up Closing Argument, caught a salty group when second in his debut on March 23 and simply ran into a tiger in Zee Bros.  Master Appeal received a 96 Beyer in defeat and shouldn't be a maiden for long.

*Grade 1 winner PURE FUN, third in her 3-year-old debut in last weekend's Bourbonette Oaks, came out of the race with a fever, according to a Twitter post from her trainer, Ken McPeek.  Pure Fun is now unlikely to contest the Ashland Stakes at Keeneland and may train up to the Kentucky Oaks.

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You can find the latest "Under the Radar" column here:

http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-derby-under-radar-titletown-five

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (3/18/13 - 3/24/13):

1. BIG SCREEN - 110 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
2. SKY KINGDOM - 103 - Tokyo City Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles - Santa Anita
2. TWILIGHT ECLIPSE - 103 - Pan American Stakes (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
4. L. A. WEEKEND - 101 - Coyote Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Turf Paradise
4. JUSTIN PHILLIP - 101 - OC 50k/N1Y -N - 6 Furlongs - Oaklawn
4. ZEE BROS - 101 - Md Sp Wt 56k - 7 Furlongs - Santa Anita
7. LAST GUNFIGHTER - 100 - Excelsior Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
7. LUCY'S BOB BOY - 100 - Alw 27000N3X - 7 Furlongs - Charles Town
9. ISN'T HE CLEVER - 98 - Bill Thomas Memorial Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Sunland
9. MANITO - 98 - OC 32k/N3X - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
11. LAURIE'S ROCKET - 97 - Hot Springs Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
12. AWESOME VISION - 96 (DH) - Compelling Word Stakes - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
12. SAGINAW - 96 (DH) - Compelling Word Stakes - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
14. AMERICAN BLEND - 95 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
14. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - Santa Anita
14. GOVENOR CHARLIE - 95 - Sunland Derby (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Sunland
14. TAPTOWNE - 95 - OC 75k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Oaklawn
18. DRIVEN BY SOLAR - 94 - OC c-25k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
18. MIDNIGHT LUCKY - 94 - Sunland Park Oaks - 1 1/16 Miles - Sunland
18. STOLEN CHEVY - 94 - Alw 5000s - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Laurel
21. REIN KING - 93 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile (Inner Dirt) - Aqueduct
22. BAFFLE ME - 92 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Gulfstream
22. BENT MISSILE - 92 - OC 40k/N$Y - 6 Furlongs - Hawthorne
22. SILSITA - 92 - Bourbonette Oaks (G3) - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - Turfway
22. TIZ FLIRTATIOUS - 92 - Santa Ana Stakes (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Santa Anita

*BIG SCREEN's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*DRIVEN BY SOLAR was claimed for $25,000 by trainer Jamie Ness from Bruce Levine.  From the same race, second-place finisher TOQUE was claimed for $25,000 by David Jacobson from Charlton Baker.

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Hi Dan. I appreciate the thorough anaysis on Titletown Five. Big question marks with this horse as he heads into LA Derby this weekend, however, Lukas seems on a roll this year. Seems a lot to ask of this guy to come into this off of one 6F race and first time at 2 turns and beat this field. But I'm in agreement that this horse has a ton of talent.
Dan, is it possible to get the Kentucky Oaks Pool 2 Futures PPs and those for Govenor Charlie and Black Onyx posted here for those of us that missed them or haven't seen then? Thank you.
Stan Lottes

The past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.  Thanks for reading!

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Dan,
If there is a strong wind at the track, how do we use this when handicapping? What if the wind is in the horse's face on the backstretch then at their back in the stretch. And vice versa. What if the wind is across? What does the wind do to the texture of the track? It was very, very windy at Gulfstream Sunday and I have yet to figure this out
Tom

Some handicappers believe that a strong stretch tailwind will aid closers as the speed horses had to contend with a headwind on the backstretch.  To be honest, I don't particularly pay too much attention to the wind unless a pronounced bias begins to take shape.

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Dan, I would love to see the complete PPs of a good ol' hard knocker, Cayambe, I believe he passed the half-million $ mark in his last start at age 9. He's been recently claimed by Gary Barber and shipped to NY from CA. I understand the economics involved - he is certainly eligible for starter allowances that seem to rarely get written anymore at SA, but I hope he stays safe in his new barn. I am concerned since he was entered back on short rest and was a vet scratch. Now I see he's entered again for the 28th. Fingers crossed.
nancyb

CAYAMBE's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of the blog post.

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Congrats to ALEX for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise. 

PENN NATIONAL RICK'S WEEKLY SCORESHEET IS AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Alex selected Friday's sixth race at Gulfstream for this week's event.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/conce­rns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.CO­M and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

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REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.

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You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman

AttachmentSize
BigScreen.pdf656.92 KB
Ky. Oaks Future Pool 2.pdf227.14 KB
BlackOnyx.pdf676.16 KB
GovenorCharlie.pdf635.09 KB
CAYAMBE.pdf74.76 KB
Copy of Formblog Gold Coast Delta 3-22-13.xls66 KB
HGGPTURF.pdf170.81 KB