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Star Harbour, Giancarlo
STAR HARBOUR, claimed for $35,000 at Saratoga, may prove to be a bargain for trainer Bobby Dibona.
The speedy son of Indian Charlie earned the fourth triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure (103) of his career while handling a solid field of sprinters in last Sunday's seven-furlong Sunshine Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
Breaking from post four in the six-horse Sunshine State, Star Harbor immediately skipped to the lead and the rail under Paco Lopez. He was soon confronted by rank outsider CAT FIVE HURRICANE, a 45-1 shot that would eventually be eased and vanned off. After shooing away Cat Five Hurricane through an opening quarter of 22.36, Star Harbour repelled the three-wide challenge of BAHAMIAN SQUALL and entered the stretch with a comfortable lead. Star Harbour completed the opening half in 44.76 and had just enough to fend off JACKSON BEND's late surge.
A half-brother to stakes-placed turf performer LEMON POINT, a juvenile filly scheduled to compete in an allowance race on grass at Gulfstream on Friday, Star Harbour is out of the Boston Harbor mare Snug Harbour, a stakes-winner on dirt at 1 1/16 miles.
Star Harbour's original trainer, Bill Mott, had high hopes for the bay after he finished second in an 'N1X' allowance at Aqueduct on November 19. But, he floundered in three starts over the inner track that winter and thoughts of future stakes successes were put on the back burner.
Star Harbour looked super in his return to the main track, wiring an 'n2L' allowance by 8 1/2 lengths on April 21, 2012 and wasn't disgraced in his subsequent appearance, a fourth-place finish behind the stakes-caliber Buffum at a one-turn mile on May 28, 2012. In his final two starts that season, Star Harbour popped triple-digit Beyers (102, 103) when rambling through his 'n2x' and 'n3x' conditions.
Star Harbour failed to build off those races in his first three starts of 2013, however, and was dangled for $35,000 at Saratoga on August 29. He won by 12 lengths that day, earned a 108 Beyer, and was taken by Dibona in a five-way shake. In his first start for the new connections (racing under trainer David Nunn's name), Star Harbour finished third behind the double-tough Caixa Eletronica in the $100,000 Duck Dance Stakes at Belmont.
Star Harbour was training well leading up to the Sunshine State. According to DRF Clocker Michael Vesce in the Gulfstream Park Workout Report available on the homepage, Star Harbour "Was asked for a lot more today [November 30] than previous work, producing a very strong five eighths in company with lesser mate Trading Secrets, pulled away late by five widening lengths with some mild coaxing, zipped :58.22 over a pretty quick track, his final quarter in :23 with a mild tailwind. Rating: B+"
Star Harbour projects to start next in the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream on January 18.
*BROKEN SWORD earned a big number in taking the Grade 2 Bayakoa Stakes at Betfair Hollywood Park, but I wonder if that effort is as good as it looks on paper. Broken Sword grabbed an easy early lead, took virtually no pressure throughout and skipped home ahead of a mostly lackluster group.
*GIANCARLO, a 2-year-old colt by Tapit, earned a huge 98 Beyer Speed Figure in winning at six-furlong maiden special weight at Calder last Saturday. Trained by Efren Loza Jr., Giancarlo is out of a sprint-winning half-sister to Great Hunter, winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity going long on polytrack as well as the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on dirt at Santa Anita.
Second in his career debut (80 Beyer) on November 17, Giancarlo tracked pacesetter Mystical Myles from the two-path before asserting himself for good in upper stretch. He drew away to win by 6 1/2 lengths, but, before we get too deep into Derby dreams, it must be noted that it took him until just outside the sixteenth pole to make his final lead change and there was nobody else running at the end of the race (Mystical Myles was 7 3/4 lengths clear of third). For now, let's mark him down as a sprinter/miler with some potential.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (12/2/13 - 12/8/13):
1. BROKEN SWORD - 103 - Bayakoa Stakes (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
2. CSABA - 101 - Fred W. Hooper Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Calder
2. STAR HARBOUR - 101 - Sunshine State Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
4. L. A. WEEKEND - 100 - Caballos Del Sol Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Turf Paradise
5. POINT FINISH - 99 - Claiming Crown Iron Horse Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Gulfstream
6. EIGHTTOFASTTOCATCH - 98 - Broad Brush Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Laurel
6. GIANCARLO - 98 - Md Sp Wt 24k - 6 Furlongs - Calder
6. SPEAKING OF WHICH (Ire) - 98 - Tropical Turf Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Gulfstream
9. COMPLIANCE OFFICER - 97 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 Mile (Turf) - Aqueduct
9. FORTIFY - 97 - Alw 77000N1X - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
9. GOODTIMEHADBYALL - 97 - Claiming Crown Rapid Transit Stakes - 7 FUrlongs - Gulfstream
9. ULTIMATE DESTINY - 97 - Sir Barton Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Woodbine
13. CENTRIQUE - 96 - Claiming Crown Glass Slipper Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Gulfstream
13. MOONLIGHT SONG - 96 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - Aqueduct
13. MY PLACE ANYTIME - 96 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
16. BOAT TRIP - 95 - Hollywood Turf Express Handicap - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
16. DUBAI YOU X Y Z - 95 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
16. GROUPTHINK - 95 - Md Sp Wt 60k - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
16. ULLAPOOL - 95 - Garland of Roses Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
20. AMAZING HEARTED - 94 - Clm 50000(50-45) - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
20. LITTLE JERRY - 94 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
20. SPA CITY FEVER - 94 - OC 100k/N3X - 7 Furlongs - Aqueduct
20. WILLYCONKER (Ire) - 94 - Clm 40000(40-35) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
24. COUGAR RIDGE - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - Aqueduct
24. MOONSHINE BAY - 93 - Alw 34000NC - 6 Furlongs (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
*BROKEN SWORD's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
I have asked Dan to post my Gulfstream "Race Book" for all of the turf races held at Gulf last year during the "championship meet" on the next blog turnover (Wednesday). It is all the stats from December 1st to April 5th, including rail position. If you bet turf races at Gulf it is probably worth your while to download it.
I've attached it at the bottom of this blog post. Take a look!
Haven't heard anything about Revolutionary since Derby if I'm not mistaken. Whats up with him?
Also could we get Lifetime PPS for City Zip?
CITY ZIP's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
After REVOLUTIONARY finished fifth in the Belmont Stakes, it was announced that he was being put away for the rest of the year in order to fully mature. He has been working steadily since late November at Palm Meadows and breezed five furlongs in 1:02.20 on Tuesday morning.
It looks as if we'll have our annual FormBlog Convention at Gulfstream Park early next year. For more details, head on over to Laura's excellent website
It's always a blast so come on out if you can.
The weekend handicapping previews should be available on the site soon.
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Congrats to Meathead for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling contest.
Let's go with Friday's fifth race at Betfair Hollywood for this week's exercise.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per e-mail address please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***
I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
|CITY ZIP.pdf||644.22 KB|
|Copy of Gulfstream Park Turf Racebook 040513 FINAL Excel 2003.xls||206.5 KB|
JJ Thanks, I appreciate your thoughts. I do have some homemade stats from several years ago, regarding maiden/ 2 yo races at Calder and their Summit of Speed cards during one season. It's why I got so interested in maiden races and those DP DI CD numbers. I referred to them as my 'juvenile system' not just that they were for 2 yos/maidens , but also that they came about from my very early, naïve, juvenile perspective. (though the results were very positive, from a winning or itm standpoint) At that time, my Uncle Steve and my friend Lauren said I should expand my horse racing knowledge into other areas, like ...gee, I should learn to read the pp's and get a chance to understand how horses run...lol! So I did, and I continue to enjoy it. Handicapping, and that disciplne .. is more rewarding to me than a sudoku puzzle or crossword puzzle. Now , I DO enjoy an occasional winner at the sportsbook, when friends visit...or better yet , the thrill of seeing a winner at the track LIVE. But, reality makes it hard to get there. JJ You should have your own MKB horse to root on , think about the MKB draw in March:) SR Vegas
Just to make sure it didn't get left undone I went and scanned the MKB list . 1.5 % of the 64 random 2yr.olds had a negative CD . 6.2 % had 5 category representation. 17 % had a CD of 0.50 or less.......... recapping... 73% of 30 12 f Turf Classic winners have a 0.50 CD or less. 30 % had a negative CD . 33% had 5catRep. Getting the picture ? Seeing how there are times it can be useful . 27 out of 28 St.Leger winners had a CD of less than 0.52 . 96.4 % . I'd make a guess that 96 % of the runners didn't have less than a 0.52 CD :) I might even hazard a guess that some well fancied runners had higher than a 0.52 CD . The median CD for the winners is 0.03 . 39 % of St. Leger winners the last few decades have negative or 0.00 CDs . I doubt anywhere near 39% of St. L runners have a negative CD :) Yep I know the St. L is not a Hdcp.
SR Vegas - It is useful knowledge . You just have to know how and when to use it. If all you know about it is what's on the internet you don't have enough . If you have the homemade stats as AZWildcat would say , then you have something everybody else doesn't have and it becomes more useful :) There are ways and times that it's useful .
TBTA Dams...and Clear Mandate. I was looking at my MKB STRONG MANDATE lineage, and was saddened to see that his mama Clear Mandate died shortly after his foaling. http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/61554/stakes-producer-clear-mandate-dies He does have some talented 1/2 siblings. Full Mandate, Newfoundland, The Mighty Tiger, and of her 12 foals 7 became winners. It will be interesting to see how Stong Mandate ( having a surrogate mare ) continues to develop. ..he would fall under your ' Kerry Thomas personalities and the way they move in a herd ' comment for me. ---------------------- JJ I like going over the Dosage, DI, CD. I keep looking for what is an exact balance of speed and stamina CD 0.00 and DI 1.00 as explained in the 'chef' dosage review. ..and I enjoy reading your thoughts. There are many interesting things things one can chat about here. SR Vegas
C, I knew the dosage voodoo would bring out a comment or two from you. I can't say I use it much, but when I am having fun with the Formblog KY Derby angle worksheet and all the other "criteria" worksheets put out by various services and my head is spinning, sometimes I just use dosage as a "second to last" piece of the criteria puzzle. But as time passes and there is less and less stamina influence in the breed, the whole dosage formula becomes more and more useless. (If it isn't already.) In the final analysis, I always pick the horse that best meets my guidelines and who I think looks "prettiest" and moves the best over the Churchill strip. There is so much TV coverage of the workouts for the last week before the race, that it is very easy to get a gauge of most of the horses' physical condition. For example, this last derby, Verrazano and Orb were the two horses that were all the rave physically, all week. I used pedigree to choose Orb. Then I checked Kerry Thomas and what many think is his "crazy" ideas about the animals' personalities and the way they move in a herd. He may be nuts to a conventional horseman and definitely to a statistics or numbers oriented handicapper, but a couple of his strongest picks over the last three years were Animal Kingdom, Orb and I'll Have Another. (And I have only become aware of his work in the last three years or so)
C , I'm pretty sure about 60% of all TBs are dk brown or bay horses :) Nice try though . What 50/50 trend ? I just demonstrated to Bernard a way to use dosage to land on contenders and eliminate pretenders complete with illustrated examples of race specific stats. Unfortunately it got error messaged and I'm not going to write it all again. Like a lot of the other numbers it's how you use the numbers . The Turf Classic 12F grass - 30 race sample - 9 winners with a negative CD . 73% had a CD of 0.50 or less. 33 % had representation in all 5 categories. The median CD is 0.24 . The avg. CD is 0.25 . Now check those numbers against the random list of 2yr.olds pulled out of the Kleenex box . I'm guessing that 30% won't have negative CDs . I'm guessing 73 % won't have a CD of 0.50 . I doubt that 33% will have rep in all 5 cats but you never know. Luckily for MKB owners the median CD for the Derby is about 0.71 :) It's one thing to say you don't like dosage and don't like to use it . It's a different can of worms to claim the numbers can't be deciphered in ways that can make them useful . That's just ignorance of the numbers talking . I hope you aren't the 4 dimensional computer simulated normal adult heart wall movement quantifier guy C :) If you are then remind me not to let you simulate my heart :) JJ
One of the especially fun parts of the MKB is seeing the dams of some of the babies. So many of these moms were favorites of mine on the track, like Tessa Blue, Wild Gams, Caressing, One Hot Wish, Serena's Cat (mom-Serena's Song) and Clear Mandate. It is amazing though when contemplating how much time has passed since when I was watching them and rooting them on, to rooting for their sons. Speaking of old favorites, Gander is the featured horse of Barbara Livingston's most recent blog. I loved that PGH, especially when he and Evening Attire were in the same race. His is a recovery and retirement that sheds a positive light on racing. And another old favorite, Mike Turfmonster (hahaha), I always know exactly how you mean it.....and that you would never sass one of us ladies. You are too much a gentleman. Anyone who has seen you in action at the track, would be grateful for the tutorial and it's delivery. :)
AZ Wildcat I read that Dick Jerardi also likes Shared Belief. His article today, reminds me of what you wrote 3 days ago :) http://www.drf.com/news/dick-jerardi-shared-belief-stands-out-several-ways SR Vegas
Thanks Annie for the info, one start one win sounds good to me. Ohhhh, a lot of green backs for the purchase on him (490k). I’ll be looking forward to his next start. Sire Medaglia d Oro certainly has the pedigree to get distance but on the Dam side more a synthetic horse well race record ran in a lot of synthetic tracks. Bobby B said “The future is so bright on Indianapolis I have to wear my sunglasses not to get blinded. Or maybe it’s so bright around here; dam it’s always sunny in California.” NO he didn’t say that just having fun, no more fake quotes for a while.
50. STARR D, Your horse is BOBBY'S KITTEN. He is a bay colt by Kitten's Joy out of Celestial Woods by Forestry. He was born 3/30/11. Your trainer is Chad Brown. Being a Kitten's Joy, he is of course a homebred by the Ramseys. In spite of only having run on turf, he is only 45-1 on Wynn Futures. Does somebody know something? He has made 4 starts and earned $285,500. 7/27 SAR 3rd MDSP at 1-1/16 on turf 8/24 SAR Won MDSP at 1-1/16 miles on turf 10/6 BP Won GR3 Pilgrim at 1-1/16 miles on turf 11/1 SA 3rd GR1 BC Juv Turf at 1-1/16 miles on turf He has only run on turf, but you never know. A couple of Derby winners started out on turf. We'll just have to wait and see. Good luck with your horse! Annie