11/12/2014 4:12PM

A star is born?

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It probably won't make us a dime, but one of the better juvenile fillies in the world made her career debut last week at Kyoto Racecourse in Japan.

A SHIN CARAT, a $400,000 yearling purchase by first-crop stallion Tale of Ekati, destroyed 11 other first-time starters in a seven-furlong turf dash.

Breaking from post position two, A Shin Carat immediately jumped to the early lead, and set fractions of 23.70 and 46.80 while pressured from the outside by ISA CHIL HOPE. That foe was off the bridle turning into the straight, and 2 to 1 favorite A Shin Carat opened up after one tap of the whip. The filly raced her final three furlongs in 34.1 while under mostly hands and heels urging. She scored by seven widening lengths and finished the distance in 1:20.9.

In comparison, 2-year-olds completed the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes in 1:21.7 later in the afternoon.

Tale of Ekati never ran on turf, but he won first-out at two by 8 1/4 lengths going 5 1/2 furlongs at Belmont. He grabbed the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes by seven furlongs, and finished a well-beaten fourth over goopy going in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

At three, Tale of Ekati downed 2-year-old champion War Pass in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial before finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. He rebounded during the second half of the season to prevail in the Grade 2 Jerome Handicap at one mile, and was promoted to first via disqualification in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile (106 Beyer).

The dam, Ellie's Moment (by Kris S.), took the Rare Treat Handicap at nine furlongs on dirt at Aqueduct. She also placed in a pair of Grade 3 races going long on the main track. Ellie's Moment is a three-quarter sister to multiple Grade 1 dirt route winner, and noted Japanese sire, Brian's Time. She is also a half-sibling to stakes-placed Rebounding Thrill, Grade 3-placed Floramera, and Grade 3-placed Storm Day.

Besides A Shin Carat, Ellie's Moment has also foaled stakes-winning dirt router Awesome Bet, and Grade 3-placed synthetic router Moment in Dixie.

Perhaps A Shin Carat will next appear in the Grade 1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Stakes at one mile on turf on December 14.

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Here are the top WINNING numbers from 11/4/14 - 11/10/14:

1. IRON POWER - 101 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Nov14-7AQU
2. STALLWALKIN' DUDE - 98 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Nov14-5GPW
2. TENANGO - 98 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 Mile - 7Nov14-5AQU
4. VILLANDRY - 97 - River City Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-9CD
5. MONGOLIAN SATURDAY - 96 - OC25k/SAL25k - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 6Nov14-2GPW
5. MUTIN (FR) - 96 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 9Nov14-7AQU
7. SILVER FREAK - 95 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 7Nov14-8CD
8. JUST CHILLIN BOSS - 94 - Alw 5000s - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 5Nov14-6MNR
8. LITTLE DADDY - 94 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 6Nov14-9GPW
8. LUKES ALLEY - 94 - Autumn Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - 9Nov14-8WO
11. COOL SAMURAI - 93 - Alw 67000N1X - 7 Furlongs - 6Nov14-8AQU
11. EAST HALL - 93 - Millions Classic Preview Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 8Nov14-8GPW
11. HOUSE RULES - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 6Nov14-5AQU
11. MEDIA KID - 93 - Alw 25000s - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Nov14-5AQU
15. CRACKERJACK JONES - 92 - Alw 28428NC - 1 1/4 Miles - 5Nov14-8FL
15. DISARM - 92 - Alw 8000s - 6 Furlongs - 8Nov14-7PRX
15. LITTLE JERRY - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-4DMR
15. OFFICER GRIFFIN - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Nov14-9CD
15. STREET SERENADE - 92 - Clm 16000(16-14) - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 8Nov14-5DMR
20. BROOME STREET - 91 - OC 25k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Nov14-3HAW
20. EL JEFE GRANDE - 91 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Nov14-6GPW
20. MY SLEW - 91 - OC 40k/N1X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 9Nov14-1DMR
20. SAFFRON HALL - 91 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 6Nov14-9CD
20. THE BIG DELUXE - 91 - Clm 25000 - 6 Furlongs - 8Nov14-4AQU
25. AIGUE MARINE (GB) - 90 - Long Island Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-7AQU
25. GAB POWER - 90 - Alw 7500s - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-6HAW
25. MCQ - 90 - Alw 39880N1X - 6 Furlongs - 7Nov14-9CD
25. MOONLUCK - 90 - Clm 35000 - 7 Furlongs - 7Nov14-7AQU

*IRON POWER's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Now that Goldencents is retired would like to take one final gander at his lifetime Past Performances. Not to many have a resume like his.
Derbyologist

His lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Dan...
Questions.
Had Matt whiffed, do you know if DRF would have still donated $10,000 to the fund?
Was this all Matt’s picks and wagers or was there collaboration from other DRF staff? I certainly don’t care as it is surely within the rules, who doesn’t ask when you are at the races, “Who do you like?” Just curious...
Also, unrelated, when does the new gelding notation begin in DRF? What does it look like and where posted? Or, was I dreaming? Sometimes it’s hard to tell.
RonZ

I'm not sure if DRF would have donated the $10,000 or not. I sure hope that would have been the case.

Matt made all of the decisions from picks to plays. He did a fantastic job and the Work All Week "dutch" bet was very clever. Going in, his strongest opinion for the Breeders' Cup was TEXAS RED. He put his money where his mouth was, and actually held the tournament lead going into the Mile.

I'm hoping that the "new gelding" information will be available very soon. The last I heard, we were working on design and placement so it can't be too long before it makes the big debut in the past performances.

***

Dan, wondered if you could please post lifetime pps of new track record holder at 5 furlongs on turf at Hawthorne - 10 year old claimer Stig's Deputy! I have great respect for, and possibly a little too much in common with, the old dudes that just keep on keepin on...
Dan or anyone, (perhaps Pat G or Alan if you're around), there are 29 different track records at Laurel for turf races at 5, 5 1/2, 8, 8 1/2 and 9 furlongs. There are six different tracks listed (Exceller, Dahlia, Kelso, All Along, Fort Marcy, and Bowl Game).
The turfmonster has schooled us on the subtle differences at the NY Tracks, perhaps you've got some insight on the above-mentioned Maryland Mess....
p e

STIG'S DEPUTY's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

The different "courses" represent the different rail placements on the turf course. Check out the following link:

http://www.laurelpark.com/can-you-explain-6-turf-courses-laurel-park

***

Dan or any other fellow formblogger................. I was looking at a book titled, "The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping," by James Quinn, and he states Timeform ratings are the European rating system based on speed and class. He goes on to write..
Timeform Ratings:
140 - Outstanding horse.
130-135 Above average Group 1 winner.
125-129 Average Group 1 winner
115-120 Average Group 2 winner
110-115 Average Group 3 winner
100-105 Average listed race winner
So my questions are as follows..... Are these figures still accurate? Has the Racing Post Rating replaced the Timeform rating? And why doesn't this figure appear in all the running lines for the European runners? Thanks...
JAYZZ82

The Racing Post Rating replaced the Timeform Figure in the DRF Past Performances. The Timeform numbers are still very much active.

***

...Dan – I agree Goldencents is game. I also thought visually Tapiture hung a bit. Numerically the last 1/8th goes in 13.24 and Tapiture never closes an inch. Last 8th run in 25.89 with Tapiture picks up only 1.75L. Not even going to talk or consider track conditions over the BC weekend. Apparently on the BLOG now days anyone that mentions a bias or a track “favoring” one style is considered a loser or looking for excuses. I have admitted to the former previously so maybe I can continue to talk track conditions after all. Question – around your DRF water cooler do the experts generally think the Saturday track was favoring speed or just another track?...
DavidM9999

I think most folks here believe that the Santa Anita main track is normally conducive to speed, and that there wasn't a specific bias, per se, for the day. Personally, I thought speed horses did very well on Saturday and would upgrade closers that made a late dent.

***

Dan,
I thought Del Mar switched to dirt after the Summer meet; the entries still show it as an All Weather track. Is the switch to dirt taking place after this Fall meet?
SpartanTom

The current Del Mar meeting will be the final polytrack meet. We'll have dirt at Del Mar next summer.

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Annie, please assign me an MKB if you still have one. I have an urge to bury the hopes and dreams of yet another promising 2-year-old.

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You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.


The video previews for the weekend graded stakes races will be available later in the week at the following link:

http://www.drf.com/videos#stakes-previews


***

Congrats to Sherri Craft for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling tournament.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.

Let's go with the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash for this week's exercise.


PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.


SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
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A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

AttachmentSize
STIG'S DEPUTY.pdf737 KB
GOLDENCENTS.pdf684.34 KB
IRON POWER.pdf724.57 KB
Copy of Formblog Long Island 11-8-14.xls77.5 KB
HGDEFRANCIS.pdf186.36 KB