11/12/2014 5:12PM

A star is born?


It probably won't make us a dime, but one of the better juvenile fillies in the world made her career debut last week at Kyoto Racecourse in Japan.

A SHIN CARAT, a $400,000 yearling purchase by first-crop stallion Tale of Ekati, destroyed 11 other first-time starters in a seven-furlong turf dash.

Breaking from post position two, A Shin Carat immediately jumped to the early lead, and set fractions of 23.70 and 46.80 while pressured from the outside by ISA CHIL HOPE. That foe was off the bridle turning into the straight, and 2 to 1 favorite A Shin Carat opened up after one tap of the whip. The filly raced her final three furlongs in 34.1 while under mostly hands and heels urging. She scored by seven widening lengths and finished the distance in 1:20.9.

In comparison, 2-year-olds completed the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes in 1:21.7 later in the afternoon.

Tale of Ekati never ran on turf, but he won first-out at two by 8 1/4 lengths going 5 1/2 furlongs at Belmont. He grabbed the Grade 2 Futurity Stakes by seven furlongs, and finished a well-beaten fourth over goopy going in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

At three, Tale of Ekati downed 2-year-old champion War Pass in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial before finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. He rebounded during the second half of the season to prevail in the Grade 2 Jerome Handicap at one mile, and was promoted to first via disqualification in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile (106 Beyer).

The dam, Ellie's Moment (by Kris S.), took the Rare Treat Handicap at nine furlongs on dirt at Aqueduct. She also placed in a pair of Grade 3 races going long on the main track. Ellie's Moment is a three-quarter sister to multiple Grade 1 dirt route winner, and noted Japanese sire, Brian's Time. She is also a half-sibling to stakes-placed Rebounding Thrill, Grade 3-placed Floramera, and Grade 3-placed Storm Day.

Besides A Shin Carat, Ellie's Moment has also foaled stakes-winning dirt router Awesome Bet, and Grade 3-placed synthetic router Moment in Dixie.

Perhaps A Shin Carat will next appear in the Grade 1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies Stakes at one mile on turf on December 14.


Here are the top WINNING numbers from 11/4/14 - 11/10/14:

1. IRON POWER - 101 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 10Nov14-7AQU
2. STALLWALKIN' DUDE - 98 - OC 12k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Nov14-5GPW
2. TENANGO - 98 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 Mile - 7Nov14-5AQU
4. VILLANDRY - 97 - River City Handicap (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-9CD
5. MONGOLIAN SATURDAY - 96 - OC25k/SAL25k - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 6Nov14-2GPW
5. MUTIN (FR) - 96 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 9Nov14-7AQU
7. SILVER FREAK - 95 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - 7Nov14-8CD
8. JUST CHILLIN BOSS - 94 - Alw 5000s - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 5Nov14-6MNR
8. LITTLE DADDY - 94 - OC 50k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - 6Nov14-9GPW
8. LUKES ALLEY - 94 - Autumn Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - 9Nov14-8WO
11. COOL SAMURAI - 93 - Alw 67000N1X - 7 Furlongs - 6Nov14-8AQU
11. EAST HALL - 93 - Millions Classic Preview Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 8Nov14-8GPW
11. HOUSE RULES - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 Mile - 6Nov14-5AQU
11. MEDIA KID - 93 - Alw 25000s - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 10Nov14-5AQU
15. CRACKERJACK JONES - 92 - Alw 28428NC - 1 1/4 Miles - 5Nov14-8FL
15. DISARM - 92 - Alw 8000s - 6 Furlongs - 8Nov14-7PRX
15. LITTLE JERRY - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-4DMR
15. OFFICER GRIFFIN - 92 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 9Nov14-9CD
15. STREET SERENADE - 92 - Clm 16000(16-14) - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 8Nov14-5DMR
20. BROOME STREET - 91 - OC 25k/N$Y -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 6Nov14-3HAW
20. EL JEFE GRANDE - 91 - OC 62k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 6Nov14-6GPW
20. MY SLEW - 91 - OC 40k/N1X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 9Nov14-1DMR
20. SAFFRON HALL - 91 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 6Nov14-9CD
20. THE BIG DELUXE - 91 - Clm 25000 - 6 Furlongs - 8Nov14-4AQU
25. AIGUE MARINE (GB) - 90 - Long Island Handicap (G3) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-7AQU
25. GAB POWER - 90 - Alw 7500s - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 8Nov14-6HAW
25. MCQ - 90 - Alw 39880N1X - 6 Furlongs - 7Nov14-9CD
25. MOONLUCK - 90 - Clm 35000 - 7 Furlongs - 7Nov14-7AQU

*IRON POWER's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Now that Goldencents is retired would like to take one final gander at his lifetime Past Performances. Not to many have a resume like his.

His lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Had Matt whiffed, do you know if DRF would have still donated $10,000 to the fund?
Was this all Matt’s picks and wagers or was there collaboration from other DRF staff? I certainly don’t care as it is surely within the rules, who doesn’t ask when you are at the races, “Who do you like?” Just curious...
Also, unrelated, when does the new gelding notation begin in DRF? What does it look like and where posted? Or, was I dreaming? Sometimes it’s hard to tell.

I'm not sure if DRF would have donated the $10,000 or not. I sure hope that would have been the case.

Matt made all of the decisions from picks to plays. He did a fantastic job and the Work All Week "dutch" bet was very clever. Going in, his strongest opinion for the Breeders' Cup was TEXAS RED. He put his money where his mouth was, and actually held the tournament lead going into the Mile.

I'm hoping that the "new gelding" information will be available very soon. The last I heard, we were working on design and placement so it can't be too long before it makes the big debut in the past performances.


Dan, wondered if you could please post lifetime pps of new track record holder at 5 furlongs on turf at Hawthorne - 10 year old claimer Stig's Deputy! I have great respect for, and possibly a little too much in common with, the old dudes that just keep on keepin on...
Dan or anyone, (perhaps Pat G or Alan if you're around), there are 29 different track records at Laurel for turf races at 5, 5 1/2, 8, 8 1/2 and 9 furlongs. There are six different tracks listed (Exceller, Dahlia, Kelso, All Along, Fort Marcy, and Bowl Game).
The turfmonster has schooled us on the subtle differences at the NY Tracks, perhaps you've got some insight on the above-mentioned Maryland Mess....
p e

STIG'S DEPUTY's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

The different "courses" represent the different rail placements on the turf course. Check out the following link:



Dan or any other fellow formblogger................. I was looking at a book titled, "The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping," by James Quinn, and he states Timeform ratings are the European rating system based on speed and class. He goes on to write..
Timeform Ratings:
140 - Outstanding horse.
130-135 Above average Group 1 winner.
125-129 Average Group 1 winner
115-120 Average Group 2 winner
110-115 Average Group 3 winner
100-105 Average listed race winner
So my questions are as follows..... Are these figures still accurate? Has the Racing Post Rating replaced the Timeform rating? And why doesn't this figure appear in all the running lines for the European runners? Thanks...

The Racing Post Rating replaced the Timeform Figure in the DRF Past Performances. The Timeform numbers are still very much active.


...Dan – I agree Goldencents is game. I also thought visually Tapiture hung a bit. Numerically the last 1/8th goes in 13.24 and Tapiture never closes an inch. Last 8th run in 25.89 with Tapiture picks up only 1.75L. Not even going to talk or consider track conditions over the BC weekend. Apparently on the BLOG now days anyone that mentions a bias or a track “favoring” one style is considered a loser or looking for excuses. I have admitted to the former previously so maybe I can continue to talk track conditions after all. Question – around your DRF water cooler do the experts generally think the Saturday track was favoring speed or just another track?...

I think most folks here believe that the Santa Anita main track is normally conducive to speed, and that there wasn't a specific bias, per se, for the day. Personally, I thought speed horses did very well on Saturday and would upgrade closers that made a late dent.


I thought Del Mar switched to dirt after the Summer meet; the entries still show it as an All Weather track. Is the switch to dirt taking place after this Fall meet?

The current Del Mar meeting will be the final polytrack meet. We'll have dirt at Del Mar next summer.


Annie, please assign me an MKB if you still have one. I have an urge to bury the hopes and dreams of yet another promising 2-year-old.


You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

The video previews for the weekend graded stakes races will be available later in the week at the following link:



Congrats to Sherri Craft for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling tournament.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

On tab 2 you will see each HG Race we've held and they are color coded to denote if the race was run on Turf, Dirt or Poly.

Let's go with the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash for this week's exercise.


SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.


-  Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!




IRON POWER.pdf724.57 KB
Copy of Formblog Long Island 11-8-14.xls77.5 KB
Bernard Downes More than 1 year ago
Re some of the recent stuff on here, I really don't get the need for it. Most of us have different ways of playing the game, and while a surplus of competitiveness might well lead some to claim our way is best, why the need to use that opportunity to put other people down? Don't get me wrong, I love a vigorous debate on here, but its surely much healthier if it relates to horses and horse racing matters. Why concern yourself with how much money someone else is making (or not making)? I usually go to the races with one particular friend. He knows his horses in terms of when and how they ran, but he is absolutely RUBBISH at interpreting how they are going to run in the upcoming race. If he wins one time in 5 visits to the track, he thinks he is doing okay. Fortunately, he only bets very small stakes, so for him its a relatively cheap and FUN hobby. I know it might not suit many on here, but he still calls himself a fan and sees no need to denigrate anyone else. Me, I am slightly more protective of my bankroll, so I COMPETELY ENDORSE Turnbackthealarm's recent final paragraph. As a bettor of longshots I do have losing days aplenty, but I do really enjoy (and celebarate) those profitable "WAY cooler" days. Best Regards - Bernard Downes
mike turfmonstr More than 1 year ago
pe, Pompous is in the eye of the beholder and who is doing the speaking....It depends on where you come from and from what position you speak. Being better at something and passing things along isn't being pompous....being sarcastic to people who don't win all that often if ever, don't contribute a "thought" only pick and chose who they will be nice to and who they'll "go after" without knowing what goes on away from this blog, do not deserve my time of "kindness"...they should listen and maybe learn something. If memory serves you and I never really got along, but before you went on Hiatus and came back as "funny man" you wrote and actually apologized to me....I believe it was after I posted a string of price horses before post time and you gave me my do...if you'd like I'll look it up for you.....so now were back to this?.....Ok with me.....everyone is entitled to change their mind a few times.......I'm here to pass along things I've learned, if everyone wishes to ignore those things that's fine, like i said "birds of a feather"....It's our ball and all...I get it.......I'm not here to be anyone's friend, I have those already...listen and maybe win at more than 4-1....don't and do what makes you happy.......i'm all for people being happy....even you. I know the people that are tired of losing more than they win, They email me.......like KYL.....by the way did you join the fantasy league? If you did you know who kyl is, he would be the guy who just missed winning it all....after 20 years of losing.....I'd like to think I helped with that......but I'm pompous.....probably not.....Mike A
Okiesharp More than 1 year ago
TBTA You probably already know this: you can print out your PP's in 1/5 second increments or in hundredths. I prefer hundredths as I don't have to do all figuring in my head, the DRF computers do it for me. You can practice by using the Race of the Day free PP's. Here's how: Go to the events tab on the DRF home page and click on Race of the Day. In the upper right hand corner of the PP above the track layout configuration, you will see the view tab. Click on the view tab and under incremental splits you will see a circle and this horse. Click on the circle and the run times will change to each individual quarter run. To change back to where you were before go back and click on the view tab and then click on the elapse time circle. Wallaaa, you're back to the original view. You can also run the times in hundredths. Again, click on the view tab and select hundredths. If you don't click on the this horse circle, all times will be shown for the leader at each call. Now realize that some people prefer to do this computation in their head or are too cheap to run the time for each horse both ways. On turf races I run the times both ways (actual run time for each individual horse in hundredths and actual 1/4 mile increments in hundredths too). Race of the Day is a great way to learn how to use the system and it's free. Good Luck in the future. Okiesharp
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Spartan Tom, I see your HONOR CODE is returning on Sat. at AQU! Good luck! Annie
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
So Mike A...keep up with your reports & analyses, there are people who appreciate them... The horses are named, and the reasons are explained in detail. ......Rodney.
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
TBTA's ramblings and musings on the ups and downs of hobbies, handicapping and money: Fellas fellas fellas................... Can I just say that I have learned a lot from Mike A and when I remember it, sometimes I win. Ron Z gave me a new fun way to spend the day at the track with friends. It is so much less stressful to pick a horse I think will show. Then I have plenty of time to talk, goof around, stare at horses and generally have a social day filled with an activity and friends that make me happy. P Ensign, Finding a horse you think is the fastest at odds that will make you money could be the easiest and most simple handicapping advice I've ever received. Kind of Buddha-like in it's grace, wisdom and simplicity............... DavidM999, Poor sweet man, among others, has tried to teach me come home times, but although I'm not dumb, I just can't do the math quick enough in the time I allot to handicap per race. Pat G, Man after my heart when it comes to paddock observations,both of the equine and human variety. Bernard, I know the horses are not all euro joggers and adore the overseas commentary and comparisons. Now on to some ladies and a gentleman: The pedigree geeks.............like Laura, JJ and his 1's, Lauren Stich and some others who love dirt to turf angles. Or Turf "hill" angles.......... KNM, She loves her jockeys, particulary Joe Rocco at Keeneland, at a price. Annie, MKB, nuff said. But I still refer to her A B C D method for taking down the multi race wagers at SoCal tracks just to see what happens. SR VEGAS, Is the queen of maiden progressions, silly names and of course, the PGH. Nancy B, Her observations are astute and when she likes a horse, pay attention. Which brings me to the final thought: Although it is so much fun to win and stinks to lose, would you still have fun if over ten years you managed to balance out to zero? I think that's what makes some of us different. I LOVE to win, I HATE to lose, but in the end, it's all in the puzzle of the game when I am looking at horses and enjoying the company of others who love it too. It's not my job, it's my hobby, so if I lose but have fun, it's cool. If I make money while having fun, it's WAY cooler.
Jackson Jackson More than 1 year ago
Okiesharp - Have a great time and best of luck to you . JJ
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Al, Was the race you referred to about Palice Malice the one where he was injured or was it his last race and then he was injured? I ask because the looking inward could have been the clue to the injury. Horses have a wide variety of clues to pain, for instance, bobbing their nose down at a walk, usually it's the opposite side front that hurts. Another example is kicking at their abdomen. In their stall or the pasture, it could be colic. But in the walking ring it could mean a hind leg. I don't remember the name of the horse at AP on either Millions Day or Bernard Downes Comes to Arlington Day, but although I looked for flies and couldn't find any, he was definitely kicking at his abdomen. I lined him out as a result and if memory serves, he was low odds and finished off the board. Dan Illman himself has noted on numerous occasions that lead changes are often a clue to horse health. In two year olds it is not as definitely a problem, but with experienced racehorses or older horses who are making a maiden start late maturity wise, it's often a tell. ( I guess you can tell I don't make notes, but I do remember some things............usually horse related that strikes a chord from the days where I was intimately involved with their care.)
Turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
VS, I hate to drop a bomb on you , but Captain and Tennille also sang, "You Better Shop Around". To my great shame, I was once caught walking with an IPOD over a bridge in New Jersey with "Love Will Keep Us Together" in my ears and the words belting out of my mouth. The fishermen in the dinghies, that I had failed to see under the bridge, actually threw something to get my attention and busted me royally for that faux pas. Ah yes, National Letter of Intent Day.................good luck. I have a feeling your daughter is going to get a better offer than a D 2 school. I never liked that "now or never" pressure.
Okiesharp More than 1 year ago
JJ I did look at that race after the fact as well as all the other preferred races for the 15th & 17th too. The race you mentioned appeared to be too easy for most folks so they tried to beat it. After reviewing the aforementioned races I noticed that whenever I don't follow my basic handicapping guidelines and try to short cut the process, I tend to overlook the obvious. I'm looking forward to this coming weekend to see if I can correct some mistakes I've been making. Some great payoffs at AQ even with the short fields. Okiesharp