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Stallwalkin' Dude back-to-back
*As many of you have noticed, the "BLOG" tab on the home page has been removed. You can find this blog every week (usually published on Wednesday and Thursday) at drf.com/blogs or by going to the "NEWS" tab and clicking on the "Blogs" link.
Over the last few years, trainer David Jacobson has transformed several dirt sprinters into legitimate stakes threats.
It all began in 2012 when Jacobson took Saginaw for $30,000 at Aqueduct from Rick Dutrow. Saginaw, always a solid New York-bred, became a beast for his new connections. He won four in a row off the claim and kept right on performing. Saginaw's sole loss in his first eight races for Jacobson came when entered against the previous year's Preakness winner, Shackleford, in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap. Saginaw won 14 of 18 starts for Jacobson, including 10 stakes races, before his career came to a tragic end when he fractured both sesamoid bones in his left ankle during a Saratoga optional claimer in the summer of 2013. He was later euthanized.
On May 24, 2013, Jacobson took a chance on Strapping Groom, a son of Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Johannesburg returning from an eleven-month layoff in a $35,000 'beaten' claiming race at Belmont for trainer Carl Domino. Strapping Groom lost by a head that afternoon, but he returned 33 days later in the $100,000 Lion Cavern Stakes at Belmont. Making his first start for Jacobson, Strapping Groom popped a 104 Beyer Speed Figure in a gate-to-wire score. Strapping Groom won four more stakes for Jacobson, including the Grade 1 Forego over sloppy going at Saratoga that summer and the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap the following spring at Aqueduct. Strapping Groom broke a bone behind his right knee when he fell past the finish line after placing sixth in the $200,000 Fabulous Strike Handicap at Penn National on November 29, 2014. He was sold earlier this year to Panamanian interests as a stallion prospect.
Salutos Amigos took over as Jacobson's best sprinter in 2014. A solid Grade 2-placed type for previous trainer Eric Guillot, Salutos Amigos turned into a machine for Jacobson. He won his first three starts for his new barn, grabbed two graded stakes that year and, ultimately, became one of the more consistent sprinters in the country over the next few seasons. The mud-loving Salutos Amigos has won six graded events for Jacobson with his big triumph coming in the Grade 1 Carter Handicap on April 9.
STALLWALKIN' DUDE's exploits haven't matched those of the above-named projects, but they've come pretty close. Claimed out of a Gulfstream turf route for $16,000 on September 20, 2014, Stallwalkin' Dude has won four stakes for Jacobson. More importantly, the 6-year-old gelded son of City Zip has banked over $700,000 over the last two-plus years with four graded placings, including a close third in the Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational last fall at Belmont.
Last Friday, Stallwalkin' Dude won Saratoga's $100,000 Tale of the Cat Stakes for the second consecutive year. With his form dirty following three consecutive off-the-board finishes over muddy tracks, Stallwalkin' Dude was dismissed at 8 to 1 in the ten-horse field.
Stallwalkin' Dude bobbled after leaving his inside post position, but saved ground under veteran reinsman Joe Bravo while DADS CAPS, LEWYS VAPORIZER and BIG GUY IAN scorched through an opening quarter in 21.97 seconds. Those three paid the price turning into the stretch while Bravo expertly altered Stallwalkin' Dude into the clear turning into the straight. The duo set sail after stablemate CHIEF LION, himself a $62,500 Jacobson claim that had previous finished second in the Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap at Gulfstream, collared that one late and went on to prevail by 1 1/2 lengths. Stallwalkin' Dude polished off the six furlongs in 1:10.05 and received a 101 Beyer.
"He's been a great horse for us and done an amazing job," Jacobson told track publicity following the 2016 Tale of the Cat. "The last two races were a little off. We tweaked him a little bit. He showed his true class. He obviously likes this track. To win the Tale of the Cat - or to win any race two times in a row at Saratoga - is an accomplishment."
When Jacobson gets one of his hard-hitting dirt sprinters good, they tend to stay good. Although Stallwalkin' Dude took advantage of a hot pace and a perfect trip to win last week, and will probably be entered against tougher competition next time out, he'll likely offer good value and can be expected to give his usual solid effort. Keep an eye on him for the time being.
*While unlikely winners in tough spots on Saturday, both IMPERATIVE (Pacific Classic) and FAMILY TREE (Alabama) can be expected to perform well. Whether they're good enough to defeat the likes of CALIFORNIA CHROME, DORTMUND and BEHOLDER (Imperative), or SONGBIRD (Family Tree), well, that might be another story.
*Dan, would you please post all the horses who have won multiple Breeders Cup races and the races and years they won?
To Anonymous regarding the Breeder's Cup repeat winners (and saving Dan Illman some work!)
Go to http://stats.breederscup.com/ There are tabs that will give you race recaps, every multiple starting horse, trainers, jockeys, country of origin, etc. All on neat little tabs. Have fun. I did.
*Matt Bernier and I will be on for free and fun live handicapping analysis at 4:00 ET on Saturday. You can find us at live.drf.com. This week, we'll cover Saratoga, Del Mar, Woodbine and Monmouth
*You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.
*Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 8/10/16 - 8/16/16:
1. POINT PIPER - 103 - Longacres Mile Handicap (G3) - 1 Mile - 14Aug16-8EMD
2. STALLWALKIN' DUDE - 101 - Tale of the Cat Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 12Aug16-9SAR
3. DA BIG HOSS - 100 - American St. Leger (G3) - 1 11/16 Miles (Turf) - 13Aug16-6AP
3. SCARLY CHARLY - 100 - OC c-62k/N2X - 7 Furlongs - 10Aug16-8SAR
5. HOBBITS HERO - 99 - Alw 70970N1X - 1 Mile (Turf) - 14Aug16-6DMR
6. IRISH JASPER - 97 - OC 80k/C -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 12Aug16-4SAR
6. MONDIALISTE (IRE) - 97 - Arlington Million (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 13Aug16-9AP
6. POOL WINNER - 97 - My Frenchman Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 13Aug16-9MTH
6. WHY TWO - 97 - Green Flash Handicap - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 12Aug16-7DMR
10. BIGGER PICTURE - 96 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 12Aug16-8SAR
11. KAFISTER - 95 - OC 80k/N3X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 10Aug16-7DMR
11. SEA CALISI (FR) - 95 - Beverly D. Stakes (G1) - 1 3/16 Miles (Turf) - 13Aug16-8AP
11. TURCO BRAVO (CHI) - 95 - Birdstone Stakes - 1 3/4 Miles - 10Aug16-9SAR
14. SEVE'S ROAD - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 13Aug16-5DMR
15. BEACH PATROL - 92 - Secretariat Stakes (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 13Aug16-7AP
15. BOTTLE ROCKET - 92 - OC c-62k/N2X - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 10Aug16-1DMR
17. A M MILKY WAY - 91 - OC 30k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - 10Aug16-8PRM
17. CATAPULT - 91 - OC 80k/N1X -N - 1 1/8 Miles - 14Aug16-8SAR
17. CHOCTAW CHUCK - 91 - OC 62k/N3X - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 14Aug16-7PID
17. GHOST HUNTER - 91 - OC 50k/N3X - 1 Mile (Turf) - 12Aug16-8MTH
17. MY FRIEND EMMA - 91 - Jess Jackson Owners' Handicap - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 13Aug16-9SR
17. PAPA PAPA PAPA - 91 - Alw 40000s - 6 Furlongs - 10Aug16-4DMR
17. TOUCH OF DISNEY - 91 - Alw 48700N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 13Aug16-9WO
24. MAJESTIC HEAT - 90 - Solana Beach Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 14Aug16-8DMR
24. LATE NIGHT LU - 90 - Clm 20000 - 1 1/8 Miles - 11Aug16-4SAR
24. SHADOW ROCK - 90 - Hcp 42000 - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 13Aug16-8ELP
Point Piper's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Scarly Charly was claimed for $62,500 by trainer Larry Rivelli from Michael Hushion.
Bottle Rocket was taken for $62,500 by Jeff Mullins from Chris Hartman.
*Congrats to Suheil for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
We'll try the rescheduled Fourstardave from Saratoga for this week's exercise.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
HANDIGAMBLING version 2016:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
As an example :
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
$10 EX 6 / 1,2,5, 8 = $40
$5 TRI 6 / 1,2,5,8 / 1,2,5,8 = $60
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)
|POINT PIPER.pdf||841.22 KB|
|Copy of HG 8 6 16 W V Derby.xls||56 KB|
sigh... I hear you .
HG Rules. It did not come easily. The points you mentioned did not go un-noticed. ..as you noted 'a line in the sand' so to speak. Unfortunate, but it is not the first time this has occurred.
There are gentle reminders each week, from regular formbloggers, when someone sees something amiss. I see others revise and refresh their posts when they do miss something.
I'm glad that you have brought friends to Dan's formblog. It is a wonderful community ...and I hope that they will continue to participate.
I'm going on 10 years , and enjoy the camaraderie and handicapping prowess that everyone shares.
...I'm so happy to see my MKB GIFT BOX show his PGH face. He'll be up against it, for sure ! and at higher odds. Like Jeanne's Majesto ...I can't resist a small win on him. Come home safe , pretty boy.
Majesto has a snowballs chance in the Travers, but I'll take it if he wins and everyone gets through the race safe and soundly!! Dullahan comes to mind!! :)
Well, I am shocked to see my old girlfriend Chantal Sutherland back in the saddle at Del Mar...I thought that once she was married, she would have a couple of babies and settle down...She was the face of Del Mar 3-4 years ago...She was a great rider in her prime, and is a shell of that today...my favorite blue thong of all time....it must be tough on her...I wish her a safe journey back and hope that she can find what she is looking for...;)
Spot Plays Spa 8-25
Early Pick 5. 50 cent play x 5 times.
1,3,4,7 // 4,6/7 // 1,3,7 // 5,7 // 5,6,9,10.
$300 Win // #600 Place
Good Luck All!!!
DQ? If you go back and check the records for the last 3-4 years you will find that "Ron B" has been an active participant playing the HG many many times with more than enough info given over the years to qualify per se for the prize. Knowing the man this slip up is a one time freak thing and should be treated as such but to DQ somebody that dominated seems a little harsh. I would think a reminder on how to play seems more the course. I get the premise of the contest don't get me wrong, but 60 forms goes a long way for a senior on a fixed income.
I was the one that got him involved in this from the beginning and he has participated diligently just about every week. If you do have access to the records you will probably find that he owns the biggest payoff ever in this thing at over $32,000 for a straight trifecta at Arlington a couple years ago.
There must have been something that happened time wise for him not to finish his analysis like normal but I have seen many posts here with limited if any analysis throughout the years but maybe they just haven't won. I can tell you this though that Ron B did not and has not come into this contest from the beginning as a pot shotter...
Hopefully there can be some sort of consolation or maybe it's just one of those things where you draw the line in the sand...heck they didn't even DQ Bayern in the BC Classic and that seems far worse to the players than this...
Ron Z ol' partner
Congrats on your HG win last week !
Tough way to lose the HG, But good job of andicapping !
The topic that I forgot to address. I will cold punch a 'sure fire' exacta. When I was playing lots and lots and lots of races in a session, I would play all kinds of races. A ton of pick 3's, DD's and supers and tri's. Often I found myself trying to FORCE a big payoff. Adding horses to the end of the bet in tri's and supers and spreading cave man tickets in DD's and Pick 3's. The problem? they totally affect the bankroll. You need a lot of "luck" to have a 60-1 shot clunk up for third. WHEN it happens it can pay for a lot of sins. In the long run it drains the kitty.
Since I only play what I see in front of me. I do what "real" gamblers tell us NEVER to do. If I am Laurel, Pimlico and Timonium and CharlesTown and any other live venue I will PLAY EVERY RACE I see. Others that people will pass I will play because WHY NOT...I am there and even though a horse might look unbeatable on paper he could look a wreck on track. I would say that I will make a small wager on an outcome that might happen......but only for super small stakes. Once I hit a 6,000 super STRAIGHT by playing the last 4 digits of my SSN. It cost me ONE DOLLAR. It was a silly action bet. I was totally flummoxed by the race. I think for my real bet I bet 3 WS on a about at 6-1 shot.[I lost]. I rarely box especially in a race where it looks like a micro payoff. That might be the biggest waste of money at the track. Weighting is better than boxing. I would always say this. If you play a 2 dollar exacta box.....STOP it....and play it 3 dollars in the way you think is the most likely and 1 dollar the other way. I've done the work...it is the superior way. SOON you will bet straight exactas.....which are good bets.
But with "chalky" pick 3's or 4's couldn't a viable option be to INCREASE the base amount of the bet and try to hit it 10 times with a limited amount of horses picked....and DECREASE the base amount on a "what if" Songbird[or other can't lose type] runs out. Just like in POKER sometimes you have to "mix up" your play.
There is something about being at a track or OTB rather than home on the computer. I think my access to information, will pays, probables, replays (TIVO) is much better at home but something is missing. Plus my wife always has me doing things right at post time. That is 1/9 every time. It sounds like you have a great group.
Clocker reports are indeed products for sale. A DRF for a meet can be $200-$300 depending on what day you buy it. Other reports like Andy Harrington or Bruno are higher but generally much better quality and more comprehensive. One of our own Blog friends Laura does some great pedigree work for Bruno’s report. That is super add on.
I think tracks ought to put this out for players. If LRL had their own clockers and post them for FREE on a website it could drive some increased wagering. It should drive some winning that increases churn. It would only take a million in extra wagers to pay for a few year around clockers. Keeneland makes a limited approach at this. They have a Clocker Comments section for free on their site. It covers a couple of handfuls of horses a day but not everyone. Keeneland often is a few lengths ahead of the herd. CDI likely would be the last to do this. They would want to charge you. Make that over-charge you.
Thanks. I was thinking it was about what you relayed. Hit a longshot today for me!
I agree it depends on the player and his intent. My question was how does the Blog community view micro pricing in wagering. I was looking for how each person handles it individually but worded my question poorly. Since we have a variety of types from watchers only, small,medium and larger I thought it would be beneficial to see it. The traditional view seems to be a lot of folks single the heavy chalk then spread, spread, spread. I see that work if a 35-1 shot hits but sometimes the spreads are just spreads to be spreading. This sequence last Saturday did not call for a shotgun spread IMO. I chose to bet $0.20 instead.
Nice but difficult card on Travers Day. I have a wedding to attend out of town. Is it poor form to be betting on your phone when vows are being exchanged?
I hope Lady Eli comes back the beast she left. She is the type I root for but bet against. I know she has been prepped well. The connections believe she is back. The DRF clocker Mike Vesce seemed cautiously optimistic Sunday on TVG. I expect her to be getting very good marks on her works though. This reminds me of Paynter. He beat back death returning to race. Bad memory in play here but seems he fired a good one or two however was not as good as he once was. The rub is Lady Eli will be bet like the 3 YO Lady Eli. Has she progressed to be a solid OLDER graded type now? Seems a bad bet even if she wins. Again I hope she crushes. A Hollywood ending is nice but often we get something less in horse racing.
Mr. Dan - can you please post the pp's of Paynter.
A rough F3 tornado blew thru central Indiana yesterday. A nearby town up the road called Kokomo took the worst of it. Everyone survived. I think Hoosier Park and Indiana Downs were unscathed too. Sometimes I get caught up in losing tough nose bobs. I won one yesterday. It all evens out.
Hey, how about your GIFT BOX running in the Travers? Good luck!!! :)
Who would have thought your MAJESTO would be there too? He had a bit of a slow start. Good luck!!!