05/09/2008 3:28PM

Stakes opinions, sound sires?,

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Dan,
An important point regarding the stallion statistics that you've pulled is that they include 2008 2 year olds (most of which have not started) and as a result, "younger" stallions are disproportionately negatively impacted in this statistic.
Blue Horseshoe


I want to repost the list of stallions from last night with the adjustments I made early this morning/afternoon.  These are the top stallions from 2007 and 2008 as well as the top turf sires for both years.  Unraced juveniles are not counted in the study.

Name - Runners/Foals win percentage (Winners/Foals percentage)
Slew City Slew - 86% (66%)
Dynaformer- 86% (62%)
Cryptoclearance - 86% (61%)
Petionville - 85% (65%)

Sky Classic - 84% (63%)
Cherokee Run - 84% (62%)
Yes It's True - 84% (60%)
Gulch - 84% (57%)
Salt Lake - 83% (65%)
Out of Place
- 83 (64%)
Catienus - 83% (63%)
Devil His Due - 83% (60%)
Forest Wildcat- 83% (60%)
Concerto - 82% (67%)
Not For Love - 82% (62%)
More Than Ready (82%) (57%)
Songandaprayer - 82% (56%)
Lost Soldier - 82% (55%)
Stormin Fever- 82% (55%)
Exchange Rate - 82% (54%)
Put It Back - 81% (61%)
Smoke Glacken - 81% (60%)
Quiet American - 81% (59%)
Pulpit - 81% (52%)
Dixieland Band - 80% (62%)
Silver Deputy- 80% (62%)
Eltish
- 80% (61%)
Distorted Humor- 80% (59%)
Mr. Greeley - 80% (58%)
Victory Gallop- 80% (57%)
Marquetry - 80% (55%)

Smart Strike - 79% (56%)
Include - 79% (54%)
Langfuhr- 79% (54%)
Freud - 79% (50%)
Kingmambo - 79% (47%)
Mutakddim
- 78% (62%)
Lite the Fust - 78% (61%)
Louis Quatorze - 78% (58%)
Northern Afleet - 78% (58%)
City Zip  - 78% (57%)
Indian Charlie - 78% (56%)
Dixie Union - 78% (55%)
Grand Slam - 78% (54%)
Seeking the Gold - 78% (54%)
Trippi - 78% (54%)
Gone West - 78% (53%)
Pleasant Tap - 78% (53%)
Touch Gold - 78% (52%)
Theatrical - 78 (50%)
Deputy Commander - 78% (49%)
El Prado - 77% (57%)
Gilded Time- 77% (57%)
Rahy - 77% (54%)
Swiss Yodeler - 77% (54%)
Elusive Quality - 77% (52%)
Lemon Drop Kid  - 77% (43%)
Lucky Lionel- 76% (62%)
Double Honor - 76% (59%)
Successful Appeal - 76% (59%)
Arch - 76% (57%)
Skip Away - 76% (55%)
Storm Cat- 76% (55%)
A.P. Indy - 76% (54%)
Malibu Moon - 76% (54%)
Stormy Atlantic - 76% (53%)
Bernstein - 76% (52%)
Alphabet Soup - 76% (51%)
Royal Academy - 76% (51%)
Red Ransom - 76% (50%)
Stephen Got Even- 76% (50%)
Tale of the Cat - 76% (50%)
Straight Man - 76% (48%)
War Chant - 76% (48%)
Fusaichi Pegasus - 76% (43%)
Outflanker - 75% (56%)
Broken Vow - 75% (53%)
Holy Bull - 75% (52%)
El Corredor - 75% (48%)

Montbrook - 74% (53%)
Unbridled's Song- 74% (52%)
Tactical Cat- 74% (48%)
Thunder Gulch- 74% (47%)
Mizzen Mast - 74% (41%)
Yonaguska - 73% (52%)
Doneraile Court - 73% (51%)
Giant's Causeway - 73% (41%)
Aptitude - 73% (40%)
Whywhywhy - 73 (33%)
Halo's Image - 72% (54%)
Belong to Me - 72% (51%)
Honour and Glory - 72% (49%)
Siphon - 72% (47%)
Singspiel - 72% (45%)
Jump Start - 72% (44%)
Officer - 72% (42%)
Harlan's Holiday - 72% (37%)
Real Quiet - 71% (44%)
Five Star Day - 71% (43%)
Point Given - 71% (37%)
Cat Thief- 70% (51%)
Bertrando - 70% (49%)
Awesome Again - 70% (46%)
Orientate - 70% (43%)

Johannesburg - 69% (32%)
Forestry - 68% (44%)
Tiznow - 68% (40%)
Street Cry - 68% (33%)
In Excess - 67% (49%)
Benchmark- 67% (46%)
Albert the Great - 67% (45%)
Chief Seattle - 65% (46%)
Horse Chestnut - 64% (40%)
Milwaukee Brew - 64% (33%)
E Dubai - 63% (36%)
Proud Citizen - 62% (25%)

Kipling - 54% (36%)

While some may argue that this list indicates quality more than soundness, I think that soundness does play a role here.  True, these are the top sires of 2008, but we're not just talking about stakes-winning progeny.  This list ranks sires by percentage of progeny sound enough to make it to the races. 

Laura mentioned Slew City Slew as a source of soundness, and voila!  He tops the list with 86% starters and 66% winners (not counting unraced juveniles of 2008).  By the great Seattle Slew, he is free of both Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer blood, and is inbred 5 x 5x5 to Princequillo. 

Dynaformer is by Roberto, and is also free of Mr. Prospector and Northern Dancer. 

Cryptoclearance is by Fappiano, a noted son of Mr. Prospector.  There is no Northern Dancer blood in his pedigree, and he is inbred 5 x 5 to Princequillo. 

Petionville is by Seeking the Gold, a son of Mr. Prospector.  There is no Northern Dancer blood in his pedigree, and he is inbred 3 x 5 to Raise a Native, 3 x4 to Buckpasser, and 5 x 5 to Nasrullah.

Again, this is a very unscientific study.  Freak injuries occur often, and they have nothing to do with pedigree, medication etc. 
I agree with Tony Kelso that the lack of Northern Dancer blood in the "top" stallions on the list is pure coincidence. 
Still, the medication issue needs to be revisited.

Alan mentioned that the number of starts per number of foals may be a better way to go, and he's probably right.  I'll give it a look this weekend, and let you know what I come up with.


***

Dan just wondering, why do the old PPs you post (e.g. Yankee Affair's) show up without intra-race calls?
terryf


Good question.  I wonder if the really old past performances trigger some sort of a glitch in our system.  I'll try to find out.

***

Best of luck to everyone this weekend.

Take care,

Dan