01/02/2009 4:32PM

Stakes horses, debut sire stats, etc.

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Here are some interesting debut sire statistics from 2008 (courtesy of DRF Debut Reports - available on DRFPlus):


Under 5% (at least 20 starters):
Action This Day - 1-33 (3%)
A.P Jet - 1-27 (4%)
Aptitude - 1-50 (2%)
Arch - 1-34 (3%)
Authenticate - 1-38 (3%)
Beau Genius - 1-26 (4%)
B L's Appeal - 1-24 (4%)
Brahms - 1-48 (2%)
Champali - 1-25 (4%)
Civilisation - 1-26 (4%)
The Cliffs Edge - 1-33 (3%)
Concordes Tune - 1-35 (3%)
Cryptoclearance - 1-27 (4%)
Diamond - 1-27 (4%)
Dixieland Band - 1-27 (4%)
Dove Hunt - 1-24 (4%)
Dream Run - 1-25 (4%)
D'wildcat - 1-24 (4%)
Easyfromthegitgo - 1-28 (4%)
El Corredor - 2-68 (3%)
Favorite Trick - 1-24 (4%)
Freespool - 1-27 (4%)
Gone Hollywood - 1-27 (4%)
Gone West - 1-29 (3%)
Grindstone - 1-24 (4%)
High Yield - 1-49 (2%)
Hook and Ladder - 1-42 (2%)
Horse Chestnut - 1-44 (2%)
Ide - 1-36 (3%)
Karens Cat - 1-23 (4%)
Leestown - 1-46 (2%)
Lido Palace - 1-28 (4%)
Lit de Justice - 1-32 (3%)
Littleexpectations - 1-26 (4%)
Louis Quatorze - 2-46 (4%)
Minardi - 1-29 (3%)
Mineshaft - 2-56 (4%)
One Way Love - 1-29 (3%)
Out of Place - 1-32 (3%)
Partners Hero - 1-30 (3%)
Patton - 1-24 (4%)
Paynes Bay - 1-26 (4%)
Perigee Moon - 1-24 (4%)
Pleasant Tap - 1-36 (3%)
Rahy - 1-26 (4%)
Repent - 1-54 (2%)
Saarland - 1-26 (4%)
Scrimshaw - 1-28 (4%)
Silver Deputy - 1-44 (2%)
Silver Ghost - 1-23 (4%)
Skimming - 2-50 (4%)
Sligo Bay - 2-45 (4%)
Storm Creek - 1-39 (3%)
Storm Day - 2-53 (4%)
Stormin Fever - 1-37 (3%)
Sunday Break - 2-47 (4%)
Tenpins - 1-26 (4%)
Tomorrows Cat - 1-28 (4%)
Untuttable - 1-30 (3%)
Victory Gallop - 1-61 (2%)
Wiseman's Ferry - 1-41 (2%)
Yes It's True - 3-68 (4%)

Over 20% (at least 20 starters)
Bold n Flashy - 5-21 (24%)
Dome - 6-21 (29%)
Early Flyer - 5-22 (23%)
Elusive Quality - 10-46 (22%)
Greenwood Lake - 5-23 (22%)
Indian Charlie - 14-67 (21%)
Macho Uno - 11-45 (24%)
Red Bullet - 7-26 (27%)
Seeking the Gold - 5-24 (21%)
Slewdledo - 9-40 (22%)
Snowbound - 6-20 (30%)
West Acre - 8-29 (28%)

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Dan,
I am going to subscribe the Formulator for the first time to help with my trip handicapping. I was reading a brochure that was sent to me about it, and I noticed a feature called "Ticket Master" that allows one to construct Pk3's and Pk4's. I found this kind of interesting, since it apparently uses some of SteveCrist's methods. I was wondering if you could elaborate on this feature a bit and/or relate what Steve says about it. Also, I was wondering if "Ticket Master" helps to construct Trifectas and Superfectas.\
chicago gerry

I was under the impression that the Beyer pars were going to be noted at the top of the PP's, and I haven't seen them on PDF or Formulator. Am I missing something??
Steve T.

chicago gerry, the "TicketMaker" function should be available for FormulatorWeb sometime in 2009.  It will be a tool to help the handicapper structure multi-race wagers the Steve Crist way (dividing horses into ABCX, and computing the cost of the ticket).   Here's what our site says about the tool:

A number of new features within Formulator Web will be introduced in 2009. One is an item called “TicketMaker” – a program which allows you to construct Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets using the structural strategies described in Steven Crist’s “Exotic Betting” book. You pick the horses you like, twist a few knobs, and Formulator creates the tickets for you.

As a beginner to the Formulator series, may I suggest starting off with the Formulator 4.1 software version.  Play around with that until you feel comfortable enough to graduate to FormulatorWeb.

Steve T., the Beyer pars should be available on the PDF version of the past performances sometime in 2009.  It's some sort of programming issue that's kept it from happening sooner.

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It seems like these work designations (handily, breezing, driving, etc.) have gotten to the point that they no longer mean anything.
What about a new set:
H  Handily - a standard, no comment work.
R  Ridden - a work where the runner had to be ridden by the jockey to get him to perform.
W  Whip was used during the course of the work.
C  Companied - a maiden or two year old working in company with an older horse.

I am sure the present system is probably chiseled in stone, but what is the use of designations that have no real meaning??
Steve T.

As usual, Steve T. makes a good point, but it would be way too much work for the handful of clockers we employ to designate each and every one of what could be a hundred works each day.  As it is, morning workouts are chaotic.  Trying to narrowly define each workout is near impossible.  I wish we still published the Clocker Comments after the worktab like we did years ago.  Something along the lines of "wore blinkers,"  "worked in company with," "was under the whip," "was well away from the rail," "ridden by _____"

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Dan, I do have a question for you (no rush). Kentucky is well known for being the top thoroughbred producer in America relative to quality (if not everything else). Which state produces the 2nd best thoroughbreds? If it is not NY or CA, is it Pennsylvania? I only guess based on what I saw from PID runners shipping elsewhere.In any case, it made me wonder who is #2? Even a top five would be good to know.
Thanks.
slewofdamascus

Florida is widely accepted as #2 behind the Bluegrass State, but as successful Florida stallions migrate north, the quality of the Florida thoroughbred has declined in recent years.  Here are some pieces by Dave Goldman concerning the deterioration of the breed in the Sunshine State:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=99578&subs=0&arc=1

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=99906&subs=0&arc=1

If it hasn't happened already, it's possible that California has eclipsed Florida as #2 in the breeding world with New York not far behind.  Also, the Maryland program, anchored by Not For Love, is rock-solid.

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By the way, (opps...BTW) Will you be coming to the NHC this year in LV....PLEASE say YES!!!! & that Steven will give you the opportunity to meet so many of your fans.
SR Vegas

I'd like to, but as it stands right now, I have some previous engagements on that weekend for New York City OTB.  I'll get out there eventually.  The only advice I have for Alan at the NHC is to keep "Chalky" locked in the room during the tournament.

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Hey Guys
Do any of you have any information of Big Surf, the colt who was vanned off in the Kentucky Jockey Club?
Sarah

Here's what Jennie Rees reported in the Courier-Journal on November 30:

"Overbrook Farm's Big Surf, a son of filly champion Surfside, was pulled up in deep stretch and vanned off the track. Jockey Jesus Castanon said he heard something pop and immediately sought to stop the colt. Churchill reported that Big Surf returned to trainer Todd Pletcher's barn, indicating a manageable situation.

"As soon as I got off, I was expecting to see him worse than he was," Castanon said. "But I'm happy that he was better.""

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Alan, I'm still waiting for a response to your Beyer question!

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Have a great weekend!

Dan



Gary More than 1 year ago
Annie, Thanks for the effort you have put into trying to empty the Kleenex box. Lots and lots of good info. Thanks too for giving me a 3 year old bred to love the grass (does that sound familiar?) Thanks again, Gary P.S. Bred to love the grass, but without foot problems. YAY, I see the light already.
Van Savant More than 1 year ago
Uncle Steve; Enjoy the break. It is certainly well deserved. Your selections will surely be missed, but make no mistake, kind sir; you, cayman01, Leo, Ivan (where are they, by-the-way?) and many others who post selections for SoCal here absolutely run circles around me. I do fairly well, but you guys...dude...come on. Enjoy your time away, and thanks for all that you do.
Steve T. More than 1 year ago
Tinky and Blue, I have started work on the REAL sire stats - not the breeders generated crap based upon "earnings" but how many actually make it to the track, and then what they do from there. I also have a list of those sires that get fast but brittle progeny (Unbridled's Song, Mud Route, In Excess types). I would be very interested in your guys opinions on the sires you think have kids with more than their fair share of physical problems. I am also interested in your opinions on who you feel are undervalued sires - either regional (Blue I know you are familiar with NY) or national. I am pretty familiar with the California sires and would be interested in your opinion of a couple as well (I think we have beaten UH into the ground: Atticus Cee's Tizzy Stormy Jack Tribal Rule Thanks for taking the time, I really appreciate it. Any others that would like to chime in, please feel free!
Calvin Carter More than 1 year ago
vicstu, Annie, Here's some Kentucky Derby statistics you might find interesting. Real Quiet broke his maiden on his 7th attempt. In the 12 races prior to the Derby his race record was 2-2-5 with an overall total win margin of four lengths. His total loss margin was 69.75 lengths. Charismatic broke his maiden on his 6th attempt. In 14 starts prior to the Derby his race record was 2-3-3 with a win margin of 7.5 lengths and a total loss margin of 91.25 lengths.
robertSD More than 1 year ago
All - After a tough Saturday at Santa Anita the luck seemed distant again today as I made the last minute choice to replace an original selection (the speedy Unbridled Story) in my first P3 played (R6-8) with Steve T's top works runner Red Sun. Of course, Red Sun finished a grinding half length behind wire to wire winner Unbridled Story. Don't you know that I would have hit the P3 had I either included Unbridled Story or had Red Sun ground out a win. So after being snake bit yet again I chose to put together one final P3 (R7-9): Tizfiz/Marzelline/Valbenny/Belmont Cat (another late change) w/ Serra Song w/ Taste's Sis/Sherri Said/Wicked Delight/Solo Piano/Mosaic/Joint Agreement/Brookie Girl ($28). And even with seven live runners (count that seven) going into R9 I was nervous as I hadn't been able to close out a P3 or P4 in weeks but I also wanted to have a few bombs included in the wager so I spread out more than usual. Though I was happy to see at least two payoffs over a thousand -- with my top selection Taste's Sis paying $186.40. They then scratched favored Solo Piano after she flipped in the paddock -- thus reducing all my payoffs pretty considerably -- still not sure I like this way of handling late scratches. Though with the consolation guaranteed I would ironically get back my investment of $28. Long story short I finally caught a P3 when my top selection Taste's Sis won easily to pay out $137.40 for the late P3 -- though I lost about $20 because of the late scratch of Solo Piano. Though it wasn't a big score it was gratifying to see my runners actually win including a price in Tizfiz and my single Serra Song. Of course, it was a bit of a bummer to see the Pick-4 pay a healthy $1202 without me on board, but at least I maybe have some momentum. - robertSD PS - Don't forget to take a look at my Daily Trifecta Longshot page where I post a few 8-1 ML or greater runners from Southern California who I think might just run well. Fortunately, the last two days had Spinning Yarns ($14.40) and Tizfiz ($21.00). http://www.equiedge.com/infoPages/trifectaLongshot.html
Buffalo Joe More than 1 year ago
Blue Horseshoe- Like I said my intention is not to start a peeing match, and I do respect your opinion, but along those same lines I would really be intrested in your opinion of Steve Asmussen. And may I say for the record I was a big fan of both Curlin & Big Brown, they both did a lot to keep horse racing in the news.
Greg More than 1 year ago
Question: Where do you video guys and gals get Gulfstream replays. They used to have them on CalRacing through the horse search and I used to have some free service through RaceReplays.com that seems to have been disabled. I think I'm going to have to buy them this time I'm just curious before I do that. Thanks, Greg
C More than 1 year ago
No more Gulfstream for me until they get their act together. Ended up with the P4 for $2 and thought it was a smidge on the light side. But that's certainly not my complaint... what IS a MAJOR complaint is that I had no idea what any of the will-pays were. They never flashed any P4 (or P3, P6) will-pays after the 8th race. After the 7th, they cycled through the Exacta will-pays about 4 times before finally showing the Daily Doubles with about 3 minutes to post. Why even bother? It takes that long to get to the front of the line at most tracks. Going into the last leg, I was alive with all but 4 horses, who were between 10-1 to 20-1. How do you hedge if you don't even know what you're expecting to win? Glad I ended up letting it ride with no hedge, but come on, Stronach! Who's in charge of the TV production there? Horrendous. Alan, Not to go off on a tangent, but after a nice showing yesterday, the team I thought was the best bet of the 4 games lost. Anyway, I'll take Curt Warner over Matt Whatshisname in a playoff game any time. Also, it was the 1st ever playoff game IN Arizona. Even though their fans are not as crazy about their football as in other cities, it's still a closed stadium, and that's much more significant in a playoff game than in week 5, IMHO. I think their season ends next week though; however, I think your Ravens might very well represent the AFC in the SB. OK, back to racing.
zarpo More than 1 year ago
Annie, If there are any horses left could I have one. Thanx Zarpo
turnbackthealarm More than 1 year ago
Johnny Z I posted an insider comment from Steve Haskin's blog, unfortunately I was not the insider! hahaha That would have been pretty cool to be an owner of BiG Brown. I didn't want to leave you confused. However, one of the named percentage owners of BB has a daughter that my son has dated! Unfortunately the timing did not coincide with an opportunity to get in the winner's circle photos! lol Speaking of LOL, I'm home with the flu but there has been a bright spot....I just sat down and read the collected works of Uncle Steve's Yarns and Fables on Thoroughbred Ink and they are hysterical. Believe me the insult that "your father was a $2500 claimer" will be repeated.....these stories are so funny!!!!!!!!!