01/02/2009 4:32PM

Stakes horses, debut sire stats, etc.

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Here are some interesting debut sire statistics from 2008 (courtesy of DRF Debut Reports - available on DRFPlus):


Under 5% (at least 20 starters):
Action This Day - 1-33 (3%)
A.P Jet - 1-27 (4%)
Aptitude - 1-50 (2%)
Arch - 1-34 (3%)
Authenticate - 1-38 (3%)
Beau Genius - 1-26 (4%)
B L's Appeal - 1-24 (4%)
Brahms - 1-48 (2%)
Champali - 1-25 (4%)
Civilisation - 1-26 (4%)
The Cliffs Edge - 1-33 (3%)
Concordes Tune - 1-35 (3%)
Cryptoclearance - 1-27 (4%)
Diamond - 1-27 (4%)
Dixieland Band - 1-27 (4%)
Dove Hunt - 1-24 (4%)
Dream Run - 1-25 (4%)
D'wildcat - 1-24 (4%)
Easyfromthegitgo - 1-28 (4%)
El Corredor - 2-68 (3%)
Favorite Trick - 1-24 (4%)
Freespool - 1-27 (4%)
Gone Hollywood - 1-27 (4%)
Gone West - 1-29 (3%)
Grindstone - 1-24 (4%)
High Yield - 1-49 (2%)
Hook and Ladder - 1-42 (2%)
Horse Chestnut - 1-44 (2%)
Ide - 1-36 (3%)
Karens Cat - 1-23 (4%)
Leestown - 1-46 (2%)
Lido Palace - 1-28 (4%)
Lit de Justice - 1-32 (3%)
Littleexpectations - 1-26 (4%)
Louis Quatorze - 2-46 (4%)
Minardi - 1-29 (3%)
Mineshaft - 2-56 (4%)
One Way Love - 1-29 (3%)
Out of Place - 1-32 (3%)
Partners Hero - 1-30 (3%)
Patton - 1-24 (4%)
Paynes Bay - 1-26 (4%)
Perigee Moon - 1-24 (4%)
Pleasant Tap - 1-36 (3%)
Rahy - 1-26 (4%)
Repent - 1-54 (2%)
Saarland - 1-26 (4%)
Scrimshaw - 1-28 (4%)
Silver Deputy - 1-44 (2%)
Silver Ghost - 1-23 (4%)
Skimming - 2-50 (4%)
Sligo Bay - 2-45 (4%)
Storm Creek - 1-39 (3%)
Storm Day - 2-53 (4%)
Stormin Fever - 1-37 (3%)
Sunday Break - 2-47 (4%)
Tenpins - 1-26 (4%)
Tomorrows Cat - 1-28 (4%)
Untuttable - 1-30 (3%)
Victory Gallop - 1-61 (2%)
Wiseman's Ferry - 1-41 (2%)
Yes It's True - 3-68 (4%)

Over 20% (at least 20 starters)
Bold n Flashy - 5-21 (24%)
Dome - 6-21 (29%)
Early Flyer - 5-22 (23%)
Elusive Quality - 10-46 (22%)
Greenwood Lake - 5-23 (22%)
Indian Charlie - 14-67 (21%)
Macho Uno - 11-45 (24%)
Red Bullet - 7-26 (27%)
Seeking the Gold - 5-24 (21%)
Slewdledo - 9-40 (22%)
Snowbound - 6-20 (30%)
West Acre - 8-29 (28%)

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Dan,
I am going to subscribe the Formulator for the first time to help with my trip handicapping. I was reading a brochure that was sent to me about it, and I noticed a feature called "Ticket Master" that allows one to construct Pk3's and Pk4's. I found this kind of interesting, since it apparently uses some of SteveCrist's methods. I was wondering if you could elaborate on this feature a bit and/or relate what Steve says about it. Also, I was wondering if "Ticket Master" helps to construct Trifectas and Superfectas.\
chicago gerry

I was under the impression that the Beyer pars were going to be noted at the top of the PP's, and I haven't seen them on PDF or Formulator. Am I missing something??
Steve T.

chicago gerry, the "TicketMaker" function should be available for FormulatorWeb sometime in 2009.  It will be a tool to help the handicapper structure multi-race wagers the Steve Crist way (dividing horses into ABCX, and computing the cost of the ticket).   Here's what our site says about the tool:

A number of new features within Formulator Web will be introduced in 2009. One is an item called “TicketMaker” – a program which allows you to construct Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets using the structural strategies described in Steven Crist’s “Exotic Betting” book. You pick the horses you like, twist a few knobs, and Formulator creates the tickets for you.

As a beginner to the Formulator series, may I suggest starting off with the Formulator 4.1 software version.  Play around with that until you feel comfortable enough to graduate to FormulatorWeb.

Steve T., the Beyer pars should be available on the PDF version of the past performances sometime in 2009.  It's some sort of programming issue that's kept it from happening sooner.

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It seems like these work designations (handily, breezing, driving, etc.) have gotten to the point that they no longer mean anything.
What about a new set:
H  Handily - a standard, no comment work.
R  Ridden - a work where the runner had to be ridden by the jockey to get him to perform.
W  Whip was used during the course of the work.
C  Companied - a maiden or two year old working in company with an older horse.

I am sure the present system is probably chiseled in stone, but what is the use of designations that have no real meaning??
Steve T.

As usual, Steve T. makes a good point, but it would be way too much work for the handful of clockers we employ to designate each and every one of what could be a hundred works each day.  As it is, morning workouts are chaotic.  Trying to narrowly define each workout is near impossible.  I wish we still published the Clocker Comments after the worktab like we did years ago.  Something along the lines of "wore blinkers,"  "worked in company with," "was under the whip," "was well away from the rail," "ridden by _____"

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Dan, I do have a question for you (no rush). Kentucky is well known for being the top thoroughbred producer in America relative to quality (if not everything else). Which state produces the 2nd best thoroughbreds? If it is not NY or CA, is it Pennsylvania? I only guess based on what I saw from PID runners shipping elsewhere.In any case, it made me wonder who is #2? Even a top five would be good to know.
Thanks.
slewofdamascus

Florida is widely accepted as #2 behind the Bluegrass State, but as successful Florida stallions migrate north, the quality of the Florida thoroughbred has declined in recent years.  Here are some pieces by Dave Goldman concerning the deterioration of the breed in the Sunshine State:

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=99578&subs=0&arc=1

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=99906&subs=0&arc=1

If it hasn't happened already, it's possible that California has eclipsed Florida as #2 in the breeding world with New York not far behind.  Also, the Maryland program, anchored by Not For Love, is rock-solid.

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By the way, (opps...BTW) Will you be coming to the NHC this year in LV....PLEASE say YES!!!! & that Steven will give you the opportunity to meet so many of your fans.
SR Vegas

I'd like to, but as it stands right now, I have some previous engagements on that weekend for New York City OTB.  I'll get out there eventually.  The only advice I have for Alan at the NHC is to keep "Chalky" locked in the room during the tournament.

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Hey Guys
Do any of you have any information of Big Surf, the colt who was vanned off in the Kentucky Jockey Club?
Sarah

Here's what Jennie Rees reported in the Courier-Journal on November 30:

"Overbrook Farm's Big Surf, a son of filly champion Surfside, was pulled up in deep stretch and vanned off the track. Jockey Jesus Castanon said he heard something pop and immediately sought to stop the colt. Churchill reported that Big Surf returned to trainer Todd Pletcher's barn, indicating a manageable situation.

"As soon as I got off, I was expecting to see him worse than he was," Castanon said. "But I'm happy that he was better.""

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Alan, I'm still waiting for a response to your Beyer question!

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Have a great weekend!

Dan