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Stakes Beyers, etc.
Here are the winning Beyer Speed Figures from last week's stakes races:
*Queens County (Aqu): Researcher (J. Runco/M. Luzzi) - 105
*Kenny Noe Jr. (Crc): Yesbyjimminy (E. Plesa Jr./E. Trujillo) - 104
*Jennings (Lrl): Broadway Producer (J. Terranova II/D. Beckner) - 101
*Fred W. Hooper (Crc): Finallymadeit (J. Negrete/E. Nunez) - 100
*Parlay Me (Aqu): Accredit (K. McLaughlin/A. Garcia) - 99
*La Prevoyante (Crc): Herboriste - GB (M. Matz/J. Leparoux) - 99
*New Mexico State Racing Commission (Sun): Peppers Pride (J. Marr/C. Madeira) - 98
*W. L. McKnight (Crc): Presious Passion (M. Hartmann/E. Trujillo) - 98
*KLAQ (Sun): Wind Water (C. Hartman/K. Tohill) - 96
*On Trust (Hol): Star Nicholas (P. Eurton/M. Baze) - 93
*Prairie Bayou (TP): Canela (M. Maker/V. Lebron) - 92
*Lousiana Downs Champions Day Ladies Sprint (LaD): Coach Mike (T. Richey/J. Jacinto) - 92
*Governor's Cup (RP): Red Rock Creek (S. Asmussen/L. Quinonez) - 92
*Lightning City (Tam): Game N Laughin' (B. Rhone/D. Butler) - 91
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Ladies (LaD): Superior Storm (R. Jackson/J. Jacinto) - 91
*You'd Be Surprised (Aqu): Are We Dreamin (R. Persaud/S. Elliott) - 90
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Classic (LaD): Autobeacat (E. Heitzmann/D. Meche) - 89
*Hollywood Starlet (Hol): Laragh (J. Terranova II/E. Prado) - 89
*Ladies (Aqu): Borrowing Base (P. Quick/J. Castellano) - 88
*Johnie L. Jamison (Sun): Cattleman Prospect (A. Gonzalez/A. Medellin) - 87
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Sprint (LaD): Star Guitar (A. Stall Jr./R. Albarado) - 86
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Turf: Wildrally (T. Amoss/B. Hernandez Jr.) - 86
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Starter (LaD): Mr. Porter (S. Ducoing/P. Valenzuela) - 85
*Foil (Aqu): Distorted Passion (T. Pletcher/R. Maragh) - 84
*Silver Goblin (RP): Okie Time (D. Von Hemel/D. Pettinger) - 84
*Black Mesa (RP): Reel Chrome (K. Craddock/F. Wethey Jr.) - 82
*Corte Madera (GG): Will O Way (V. Cerin/R. Baze) - 78
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Lassie (LaD): Master Link (M. Nicks/R. Albarado) - 77
*Louisiana Downs Champions Day Juvenile (LaD): Break Up (B. Brinkman/C. Lanerie) - 73
*Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity (Haw): Summer's Empire (A. Mitchell/J. Campbell) - 68
*Kudzu (FG): Slew's Quest (C. McKean Jr./J. Eads) - 46
Here are the lifetime past performances for the highest and lowest Beyer stakes performers of the week:
"D" is so rarely used anywhere that I don't even remember the last time I saw it. It's probably not a very good sign if/when you do.
I second C's point that workout designations are more regional (see his December 11 post at 12:02 p.m for more). Amazingly, we did see a couple of "D" or "Driving" workouts at Saratoga this summer, and not surprisingly, those horses didn't pan out very well.
I believe both Formal Gold and ill-fated Prosperous Bid(1/2 brother to Best Pal) posted 112 Beyers in their debut races.
I think you missed one debut runner with a triple digit beyer. I think light the fuse earned a triple digit beyer. I think he earned a triple digit beyer in every start.
Prosperous Bid and Formal Gold did Beyer 112 in their career debuts, but both were three-year-olds at the time (Prosperous Bid on January 18, 1998, Formal Gold on June 12, 1996).
Lite the Fuse received a 103 Beyer in his career debut at Saratoga, but he was also three at the time (August 3, 1994). He earned a Beyer in every start save one (96 Beyer in the 1996 Tom Fool Handicap).
Our list only covers juvenile debut winners.
Dan, how often do you think front wraps are used for duplicitous purposes, i.e. the horse is fine and may be sitting on a big race but the connections put wraps on to scare away claims and keep the odds up? Is this an angle to look for with certain...uh...shall we say.... "crafty" trainers?
I guess anything's possible when trainers are playing the claiming game although I don't think it happens too often. This looks like a job for Formulator if you're interested in doing the research. Another time that "front wraps on" may not be such a bad angle is when an outfit that always uses wraps, no matter the circumstances, claims a horse from a barn that didn't apply them in previous starts. Now, the horse shows up with front wraps, but we can't really assume physical problems since the new barn always uses them.
Also, I tend to be more lenient with horses adding front bandages on wet tracks. Sometimes, trainers will just play it safe, and seek more protection over the sloppy going.
"DRF, Equibase, and many others provide stable mail alert services that have been invaluable for a long time now. Most of them provide alerts by horse, by trainer, and even carry-over notices! One service, though, that I haven't seen offered out there is workout, entry, and results notification by sire. There are a lot of us out here who love to follow the freshman sires as their first youngsters enter into serious training and eventually start their racing careers. As we look at another year turning over, it would be nice to peruse the list of stallions whose first crops will run in 2009, and be able to pick a few to follow with the help of Stable Mail. Do you know of any outfit that is currently providing this service? If not, is it feasible for DRF to run with it? I'm clueless as to all the intricacies of putting together a thing like this.....is it really that problematic? It seems to simple-minded me that it would be easier to do sire notification than trainer. Horses change barns all the time......they never change who their daddy is! ;-) I believe this would be a very popular thing to put in place. What do you think?
Thanks as always for your comments."
I know that BRIS has a service where you get a notification when a certain sire's progeny is entered, but that's a pay per-name, per-day deal, and I would assume it could get quite costly when following a popular first-crop sire with many, many babies.
I'd love to see free Sire or Dam Watches incorporated into our current system, and I'll bring it up to the technical people here are DRF to see how difficult it would be to implement.
That is mindboggling and I was wondering if you could confirm that figure and, perhaps, give some more information about Northern Dancer and his domination of worldwide thoroughbred racing. Thanks.
I have read that figure in more than one publication, and do believe the $1M number to be true. Of course, the thoroughbred breeding business was booming at the time with breeders/buyers from Ireland, Japan, and the Middle East vying for the best bloodstock. When it came to North American stallions with the most coveted progenty during that time period, you had Northern Dancer, his son Danzig, and Mr. Prospector.
If I remember the discussion Donnaguska was the Hawthorne runner from Hawthorne who stopped and had a coke and a hot dog, before barreling home late in her first out. Wonder what her beyers is on this one.
Any clue on the beyer Dan?
Donnaguska earned a career-best 78 Beyer Speed Figure for her 'n1x' allowance win at Turfway Park on Sunday.
By the way:
Alan, I'm still working on that Beyer question of yours.
Greg and Steve T., the DRF e-mail has apparently been on the fritz (again!), and I just received some e-mails from both of you from quite a ways back. I'll respond ASAP!
Would like to talk about the Breeders' Cup, our HandiGambling race, and some patterns regarding our 100+ juvenile debut Beyer list later this week.
Midwest Ed, Didn't get a chance to look at the HAW P6 plays and won't get much of a chance to with a holiday party tonight. However, you've got a pretty good handle and good ticket construction. Let's hope it carries over to Thursday and maybe then I'll get a better chance to take a swipe at it.
Before the scratches, I really liked the #6 – Knockinelder, #12 – Nikkiandme, and the #13 – Hurricane Annie. I really shouldn’t look at the AE’s, because when they don’t get in, I look at the race in a less than sure fashion. So be it, now I have to do more work: Of the remaining horses, the only one I felt I could surely eliminate was the #8 – Divine Symphony, leaving some tough choices. #1 – Hot Brew will most likely get shuffled back by the first turn and she doesn’t seem to have the tactical speed to make it up later. #2 – Frontier Franny looks well positioned here although I question her ability to finish, may get up to get a piece. #3 – Harmony Found should be a step below these to win, but may be competitive enough to hit the board. The #4 – The Lady Waffles seems to love the turf at Tampa at this class level based on last year’s performance. Looks like she moved back to Tam early so should be well adjusted. I tried many ways to fit the #5 – Paint Me Red into the mix, but couldn’t. Others seem more playable. #7 – Hurricane Nikki did fairly well last year in Tampa and may figure here. It looks like the #9 – C B T Snakeye had a good work at CD before coming to Tampa and worked once since arriving. Class is a positive with this one. #10 – Starlight Dove has good numbers from up north, but has had no published works since 10/1. I wonder where she’s been in the meantime. Sometimes I play these types because of the mystery of it all, but not today. You know the 1XX level of difficulty does not fit for this race, it really should be HG214, oh well. Here’s my not so confident bet for HG114: $2 Exacta: #9 – C B T Snakeye with #2 – Frontier Franny, #4 – The Lady Waffles, #7 – Hurricane Nikki - $6 $2 Exacta: #2, #4, #7 with #9 - $6 $4 Exacta: #9 with #2 - $4 $2 Trifecta: #9 with #2, #4, #7 with #2, #3 – Harmony Found, #4, #7 - $18 $2 Trifecta: #2, #4, #7 with #9 with #2, #3, #4, #7 - $18 $1 Superfecta: #2, #4, #7, #9 with #2, #4, #7, #9 with #2, #4, #7, #9 with #2, #3, #4, #7, #9 - $48
HANDIGAMBLING 114 Love the stretchout for #6. Should maintain solo lead unless an AE draws. So here goes the bet: $70 win #6 $10 ex. 9-6 $5$ ex. 2,4,5,10/6 Just a little insurance if she gets caught on the wire.
Buffalo Joe, I had a very strong opinion on Frontier Franny....Unfortunately, it was on back on July 18th when I hit keyed her with a nice win bet and on top at that trifecta. That was a good day my friend, a good day indeed. Mr. Rhone is pretty good at bringing a horse back and usually has them ready to fire. It won't surprise me in the least if he has her ready to run today too. Good luck.
bombsaway bob grant and trenton ralph, According to the Tampa Downs website, Aurora Springs Stable last year, was 15% win, and 40% in the money. it was 3rd in over purse money $307,024; behind B. Sukharan at $357,770 and Calabrese $329,656.
HG 114 Overview of strategy: This is one of those races where I just can’t formulate a strong opinion, really for the first time since I started participating in this exercise. They happen from time to time and I am of the belief you should be passing races like this when they confront you. If you must, I guess a small little action bet is allowable. Therefore, you won’t see me putting in the whole mythical $100 here as you have in weeks past. I’m just not as confident. Through four races that I’ve played, my bankroll stands at $708 so +$308. Therefore, I’m going to only risk a small portion of that here just to have a reason to root and pay attention. I’m trying to treat my HG bankroll the same way I’d treat my real bankroll. While I may not make a killing today, there is always another race right around the corner. My handicapping: With that in mind, I think the one with the most upside is the 5, Paint Me Red. The biggest reason is class relief. This horse has simply been facing better competition at Belmont and Saratoga than the rest of these. I still count three horses (7,8.9) who are going to be looking for the lead in this affair so she should have some pace to run at here up front. I like how that lifetime best 77 Beyer two back hasn’t knocked her for the long loop. She bounced a bit running that 61 two back, but returned to a 69 last time out. I’m thinking she continues to progress and runs at or near that lifetime best today which should be enough to handle these. The Tomlinson rating of 658 for turf + distance also says this should be in her wheelhouse. I’m hoping that Homeister can keep her a little closer to the early pace than some of her recent efforts and make one big run in the lane. My wagering: I’m going to play my key horse: $10 to win on 5. I’m then going to play a $1 exacta box with 2,3,4,7, and 10 with the 5 = $10 Total Wagered = $20. HG Bankroll = $688 Good luck to everyone, especially those who found more to like here than I did.
HG: $40 Ex Box 4-9 $20 St. Tri 4-9-10 Good luck to all! Michael H.
HG 114 Because of the scratch of #6, insert #5 where I previously had #6. Still hoping there's enough speed but now the pace for #2 to close into almost surely won't be as strong. Good luck to all. Buffalo Joe, good luck to you if you do indeed take off that rubber band.
HG $30 win # 5 $10 ex 5/3,4,9,10 $2tri 5/3,4,9,10 $6 ex 10/5 BigEasyBigChok
For those of you who were picking Knockinelder, she was a Vet scratch. Annie