05/18/2012 12:54PM

A Special, a Susan, and a Carryover

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2:00 pm: Here's the post-scratch lineup for the $319k triple pick-6 carryover at Belmont, which starts in about half an hour with the 4th race at 2:26 pm:

 

I haven't been following the lower-level racing in New York lately and found the races inscrutable and uninspiring, so I'm planning on a sort of token just-in-case-it's-easy play that goes something like this to the tune of $560:

 

Yes, I fully realize I'm leaning on a couple of maiden claimers you wouldn't normally bet with wooden nickels. In the upcoming first leg, none of the first-time starters were taking any real money in the double betting on races 3 and 4 so I'll take my chances with second-timer Dylan Dangerous off a decent-figure debut.

Meanwhile down at Pimlico, it's fast and firm, the first four are in the books without a price bigger than 7-2, and no scratches yet in the Black-Eyed Susan (race 10) or Pimlico Special (race 12).

 

 

2:35 pm: Dylan Dangerous stalked two longshots from third, took over in upper stretch, and won the first leg pretty easily after being hammered late from 3-1 opening price to $4.40.

And so much for the chalky start at Pimlico: The 5th went to Share Out, off dince November, at $46.60 with Rise Napravnik up.

 

3:05 pm: Well, at least that was mercifully quick and decisive: Used half the field in the 5th, leg 2 of the Belmont carryover, and managed not to run 1-2-3 as 12-1 Adjournment beat 5-1's Plainview and Shotinthefog. The winner, who went to the lead and tired in his two previous turf sprints, was taken back early today and rallied for the victory.

Surprising early favorite in the upcoming 6th -- Simply Stunning, beaten 13 lengths at this level in her debut, opened the slight 3-1 choice and closed as the narrow choice in the 5-6 double and 4-5-6 pick-3 wagering. She's switching from trainer Gary Gullo to Jeremiah Englehart (38 percent with new trainees) today.

 

3:25 pm: Some Preakness props copurtesy of Jimmy Shapiro and the Bovada online sportsbook:

Winning Time

Over / Under                  1:55.50

Will Secretariats 1973 Preakness Record be broken in 2012?

Yes (Faster then 1:53.40)                       +600

No (Not Faster then 1:53.40)                   -1000

How many lengths will the winner win by?

More than or equal to 1 length                  -225

Less than 1 length                                 +185

More than or equal to 3 lengths               +175

Less than 3 lengths                                 -215

Will a horse win wire to wire?           

Yes                                          +220

No                                             -280

 

3:40 pm: Leading Citizen, Rudy Rodriguez-trained firster bet late to clear 2-1 favoritism, was outrun early but rallied down the center of the track to win the 6th at Belmont by four lengths. Simply Stunniny, 3-1 second choice at post time, was far back throughout and finished last. Pick-3 comprising first half of Pick-6 paid $562.40 for $2, more than triple the $183.80 parlay.

 

3:50 pm: An hour of Black-Eyed Susan and Preakness preview coverage scheduled to begin at 4 pm on NBC Sports Network. Tomorrow's network coverage begins at 2:30 pm on NBC SPorts Network, then switches to NBC proper from 4:30 to 7 pm.

 

4:07 pm: Big gate scratch in the 7th of #10 Ninety Degrees, 3-1 second choice. Looks like you get moved to #12 Touch of Revenge, who just dropped from 2-1 to 7-5 after the scratch.

 

4:12 pm: Touch of Revenge a flat 5th at 6-5 as 0-for-42 7-year-old mare City Vice finally made it to the winner's circle at 20-1. A little chance of a quadruple carryover?

And speaking of Rudy Rodriguez, the trainer's Agave Kiss won the Miss Preakness, the 8th at Pimlico, to run her record to 6-for-6 including four straight stakes as an odds-on favorite. The 3-year-old New York-bred daughter of Lion Heart races for Flying Zee Stables and scored by 5 1/2 lengths over Millionreasonswhy as the lone speed and 3-to-5 favorite. Her winning time of 1:10.40 looks pretty good next to Bold Affair's 1:11.71 winning the Skipat for older fillies two races earlier.

 

4:52 pm: There are five uncovered horses in the Belmont finale who would produce an $862k carryover into Saturday:

 

Looks like there are 13 live combos: 4 at $215k to #9 Shalangar, 2 at $431k to the #3, #5 and #7, and 1 each at $862k to the #1, 6 and 8.

Meanwhile down in Charm City, Todd Pletcher ran 1-2 in the Black-Eyed Susan with Bourbonette winner In Lingerie and Demoiselle winner Disposablepleasure as favored Mamma Kimbo faded to 4th as the even-money favorite.

 

5:15 pm: No quadruple carryover at Belmont as 2-1 Tapaway ran down longshots Pervis and Classic R and B to reward two Pick-6 bettors with a $431,363 payoff.

 

5:35 pm: Sensible Lady's $51.60 victory in the The Very One has pick-4's into the Pimlico Special paying from $19k (Mission Impazible) to $155k (EIghttofasttocatch). Hymn Book, Nehro, Alternation and Mission Impazible vying for favoritism, all in the 7-2/4-1 range.

 

6:00 pm: Alternation ($10.20) ran down Endorsement and then held off Nehro to win the Pimlico Special, running his record to 4 for 4 this year and staking a claim to being the pro tem leader of the nation's older horses. The 4-year-old Distorted Humor colt swept Oaklawn's three races for older dirt routers -- the Essex, the G3 Razorback and the G2 Oaklawn Handicap -- in his last three starts. He's trained by Donnie Von Hemel, who also trains Calbeb;s Posse, the runner-up in last year's 3-year-old championship voting who will run in the Met Mile at Belmont May 28.

Alternation completed an all-stakes pick-4 that paid $27,961 for $2 and a Jackpot pick-5 that paid $13,339.75 for 50 cents. There's a carryover of $168k in that Jackpot pick-5 into Preakness Day, when the pool must be distributed because it is closing day of the 29-day Pimlico spring meeting --regardless of whether there are multiple 5 of 5 winners or even no 5-of-5 winners.

First post for Preakness Day is 10:30.

 

 

 

 

Salvatore DiChristina More than 1 year ago
does anyone know where I can find the Black eyed Susan/Preakness daily Double prices 5/19/2012?
Greg Rouch More than 1 year ago
Do you regard the Pimlico surface as pretty fair Friday and likely to remain so Saturday? Thanks.
First More than 1 year ago
City Vice. 0-42. Knocks me out of my Pick 6 and Pick 4. I had the 3 in both and thought I had a chance....may have to give up this hobby.
Jack Docking More than 1 year ago
Just look at the bottom of City Vice's PP's and it tells the story of a horse that, going back on the turf, he could easily handle this group. Don't feel bad, I didn't notice the City Vice key until they were almost finishing loading and all I could do was whimper "oh no".
rstanzel More than 1 year ago
Steve, how can ML maker in NY have anything from Rudy Rod at 10-1 especially in a weak field like the 6th? Won for fun at 2-1
Steven Crist More than 1 year ago
I guess because Rudy's only 13 percent with firsters and 10 percent with debut maiden-claimers, but that didn't stop Dave Litfin from putting her right on top in his selections.
rstanzel More than 1 year ago
His ROI is outrageous with those runners too. Still hard to believe the secret wasn't out when Agave Kiss debuted on Showcase Day!
gowanusbaseball More than 1 year ago
Anyone know how to bet the Special-Preakness double through NYRA Rewards?
Steven Crist More than 1 year ago
It's alphabetically under "S" in the betting menu, listed as "SPLPREAK DD ARBN," whatever that means.
trytrytryx3 More than 1 year ago
Any pimlico pick 5 ticket ideas? 0.50 minimum
Steven Crist More than 1 year ago
Remember, as a couple of commenters pointed out yesterday, that it might pay to wait until tomorrow for the Pim pick-5 -- it's a "Rainbow"-style jackpot bet that only pays out in full if there's a single winner today but there's a mandatory payout tomorrow on Closing Day.