08/14/2011 12:39PM

Spa Day 21: 8/14/11


12:40 pm: "The weatherman is fearful of rain as the day progresses" announced Tom Durkin, so post times will be accelerated on Day 21. The pick-6 with a $76k carryover begins with race 5, which has been moved back from 3:13 pm ET to 2:57, and the last of the day's 10 races will now run at 5:28 pm, 36 minutes earlier than the original post time of 6:04.

There's still uncertainty about the status of races 5, 8 and 10, scheduled for the turf but eligible to be moved to the main track if things turn ugly. As of 12:30, most of the also-eligibles and main-track-onlies on the card have yet to be scratched. None of the 15 entrants in race 5 has been scratched though a maximum of 10 will actually run.

Races 1 and 2 are also on the turf, currently listed as firm, but a monsoon does not appear imminent.

Today's feaure is the G2 adirondack for 2-year-old fillies, where the very impressive July 22 debut winner My Miss Aurelia will be heavily favored in a field reduced to 5 by the scratch of Funny Proposition. You may get some early confirmation of the quality of her performance when the 2nd and 3rd-place finishers from that race, Delightful Magic and Stopshoppingmaria, return to make their second starts in the 7th race. Either one of them might have gone off the second choice in the Adirondack.


1:25 pm: No rain yet, and the two AE's and three MTO's have been scratched from the 5th race.


2:35 pm: Still no rain yet, remaining ae's and mto's scratched from 8th and 10th, so I'm putting in the tickets as if we're staying on the grass:

Obviously I'm betting that the form and fig of the aforementioned July 22 maiden race holds up, having put 90 percent of my investment through My Miss Aurelia in the Adirondack and 100 percent of it through Delightful Magic and Stopshoppingmaria in the 7th.


3:15 pm: Third choice Rudy Rudy Rudy ($7.90) held off second choice Carson Bandit and favorite Strolldownbroadway to start things off on a happy note in the pick-6. The wind is picking up and there are big dark storm clouds on the horizon.

RudyX3 completed an early $4,740 pick-4 that ended with $6.00, $7.10 and $7.90 winners. The trick was coming up with Welcome Dance, the $57.50 winner of the 2nd, a firster-filled turf route for maiden 2-year-old fillies. Welcome Dance, a Ramona Bass homebred trained by Michael Matz, led every step of the way, running her first six furlongs in a modest 1:15.50 that left her with plenty to finish the 8.5f in 1:44.60. Wlecome dance is by Henny Hughes from the Dynaformer mare Choreograph.

Six of today's 10 races are for maidens, as were 6 of yesterday's 11, a total of 12 out of 21 weekend races.


3:45 pm: Usually you'd be annoyed if a C catches a B at the wire, but 11-1 David the Great's nailing 4-1 War Colony in the 6th not only thinned the herd by also cost me just one horse later on, my lone B in the 10th. So I'm 2x5x1x2, A's only, the rest of the way.

A bigger concern is Book Review, the Chad Brown firster who opened co-favored with Stopshoppingmaria and a shorter price than Delightful Magic in the upcoming 7th. A firster being bet into the teeth of second-timers who earned Beyers of 78 and 83 in their debuts is getting very serious support.


3:55 pm: Another cause for concern is Bandelle, a fading 5th in her CD debut but slammed from 10-1 to 7-1 in one flash here despite the two strong-second-timers and the well-bet firster.


4:05 pm: Stopshoppingmaria ($5.30) led every step of the way and rocketed away in the stretch to win by what Durkin guesstimated as 10 lengths in 1:09.87. Time looks excellent against the day's three earlier 6f races, which went in 1:11.27, 1:11.59 and 1:12.39.

Delightful Magic stalked the leader early but settled for third when outfinished for the place by Book Review. Bandelle showed nothing.

Reminder to NYRA: Those in-house advertisements on the main infield toteboard continue to obscure the odds on numbers 10 and higher. Have no idea what the odds are on the 10 in the 8th race because there's a big graphic reminding us of the date of the Travers where the odds and pools should be.


4:35 pm: Australis Princess ($9.20) held off 5-2 fave Lemon Tiger to win the 8th and keep the dream alive 1x2. Today's fresh pick-6 money added up to $367,082 on top of the $76k carryover.

Lady's Lunar Luck, the #10 with the hidden odds, gave me a flutter moving into second around the turn but ended up just salvaging third at 15-1.

My Miss Aurelia opened the 1-5 (or 1-4 in NYRA tote-software parlance) favorite for the Adirondack. The only way a horse displays as the more-familiar 1-5 now is if the current odds would result in a payoff of precisely $2.40. If it's $2.50, $2.60 or $2.70, it displays as 1-4, then goes to 2-5 at $2.80. The use of 1-4 (and 3-4) has always struck me as unnecessary, confusing to customers familiar with 1-5 (and 3-5 or 4-5), and inconsistent since it doesn't extend to saying 5-4 for $4.50, 7-4 for $5.50, 9-4 for $6.50 etc.


5:10 pm: My Miss Aurelia ($3.00) held off Millionreasonswhy in a thrilling stretchlong duel to win the Adirondack by a neck. It was 14 3/4 lengths back to Bellacourt in 3rd.

The race (1:17.01 for 6.5f) won't get as good a figure as Stopshoppingmaria's 1:09.87, but My Miss Aurelia was under pressure early and late and I don't think she was going to let the other filly by her if they'd gone around again.

Alive for $11,225 to the #6 (firster Magic Box) and $8,758 to the #9 (second-timer Drinksonthehouse). The $10 insanity-insurance pick-4 (see comment section)to the firster #8 Going Green would come back $2,225. At least I seem to have guessed correctly between the firsters as Magic Box is 3-1 and GG is 13-1.  

Everyone in the race iis covered except #7 Sweet a Way, who would produce a $280,286 double-carryover.


5:45 pm: Ouch:

First post tomorrow is 1 p.m. Time for an adult beverage.