08/14/2011 12:39PM

Spa Day 21: 8/14/11

Email

12:40 pm: "The weatherman is fearful of rain as the day progresses" announced Tom Durkin, so post times will be accelerated on Day 21. The pick-6 with a $76k carryover begins with race 5, which has been moved back from 3:13 pm ET to 2:57, and the last of the day's 10 races will now run at 5:28 pm, 36 minutes earlier than the original post time of 6:04.

There's still uncertainty about the status of races 5, 8 and 10, scheduled for the turf but eligible to be moved to the main track if things turn ugly. As of 12:30, most of the also-eligibles and main-track-onlies on the card have yet to be scratched. None of the 15 entrants in race 5 has been scratched though a maximum of 10 will actually run.

Races 1 and 2 are also on the turf, currently listed as firm, but a monsoon does not appear imminent.

Today's feaure is the G2 adirondack for 2-year-old fillies, where the very impressive July 22 debut winner My Miss Aurelia will be heavily favored in a field reduced to 5 by the scratch of Funny Proposition. You may get some early confirmation of the quality of her performance when the 2nd and 3rd-place finishers from that race, Delightful Magic and Stopshoppingmaria, return to make their second starts in the 7th race. Either one of them might have gone off the second choice in the Adirondack.

 

1:25 pm: No rain yet, and the two AE's and three MTO's have been scratched from the 5th race.

 

2:35 pm: Still no rain yet, remaining ae's and mto's scratched from 8th and 10th, so I'm putting in the tickets as if we're staying on the grass:

Obviously I'm betting that the form and fig of the aforementioned July 22 maiden race holds up, having put 90 percent of my investment through My Miss Aurelia in the Adirondack and 100 percent of it through Delightful Magic and Stopshoppingmaria in the 7th.

 

3:15 pm: Third choice Rudy Rudy Rudy ($7.90) held off second choice Carson Bandit and favorite Strolldownbroadway to start things off on a happy note in the pick-6. The wind is picking up and there are big dark storm clouds on the horizon.

RudyX3 completed an early $4,740 pick-4 that ended with $6.00, $7.10 and $7.90 winners. The trick was coming up with Welcome Dance, the $57.50 winner of the 2nd, a firster-filled turf route for maiden 2-year-old fillies. Welcome Dance, a Ramona Bass homebred trained by Michael Matz, led every step of the way, running her first six furlongs in a modest 1:15.50 that left her with plenty to finish the 8.5f in 1:44.60. Wlecome dance is by Henny Hughes from the Dynaformer mare Choreograph.

Six of today's 10 races are for maidens, as were 6 of yesterday's 11, a total of 12 out of 21 weekend races.

 

3:45 pm: Usually you'd be annoyed if a C catches a B at the wire, but 11-1 David the Great's nailing 4-1 War Colony in the 6th not only thinned the herd by also cost me just one horse later on, my lone B in the 10th. So I'm 2x5x1x2, A's only, the rest of the way.

A bigger concern is Book Review, the Chad Brown firster who opened co-favored with Stopshoppingmaria and a shorter price than Delightful Magic in the upcoming 7th. A firster being bet into the teeth of second-timers who earned Beyers of 78 and 83 in their debuts is getting very serious support.

 

3:55 pm: Another cause for concern is Bandelle, a fading 5th in her CD debut but slammed from 10-1 to 7-1 in one flash here despite the two strong-second-timers and the well-bet firster.

 

4:05 pm: Stopshoppingmaria ($5.30) led every step of the way and rocketed away in the stretch to win by what Durkin guesstimated as 10 lengths in 1:09.87. Time looks excellent against the day's three earlier 6f races, which went in 1:11.27, 1:11.59 and 1:12.39.

Delightful Magic stalked the leader early but settled for third when outfinished for the place by Book Review. Bandelle showed nothing.

Reminder to NYRA: Those in-house advertisements on the main infield toteboard continue to obscure the odds on numbers 10 and higher. Have no idea what the odds are on the 10 in the 8th race because there's a big graphic reminding us of the date of the Travers where the odds and pools should be.

 

4:35 pm: Australis Princess ($9.20) held off 5-2 fave Lemon Tiger to win the 8th and keep the dream alive 1x2. Today's fresh pick-6 money added up to $367,082 on top of the $76k carryover.

Lady's Lunar Luck, the #10 with the hidden odds, gave me a flutter moving into second around the turn but ended up just salvaging third at 15-1.

My Miss Aurelia opened the 1-5 (or 1-4 in NYRA tote-software parlance) favorite for the Adirondack. The only way a horse displays as the more-familiar 1-5 now is if the current odds would result in a payoff of precisely $2.40. If it's $2.50, $2.60 or $2.70, it displays as 1-4, then goes to 2-5 at $2.80. The use of 1-4 (and 3-4) has always struck me as unnecessary, confusing to customers familiar with 1-5 (and 3-5 or 4-5), and inconsistent since it doesn't extend to saying 5-4 for $4.50, 7-4 for $5.50, 9-4 for $6.50 etc.

 

5:10 pm: My Miss Aurelia ($3.00) held off Millionreasonswhy in a thrilling stretchlong duel to win the Adirondack by a neck. It was 14 3/4 lengths back to Bellacourt in 3rd.

The race (1:17.01 for 6.5f) won't get as good a figure as Stopshoppingmaria's 1:09.87, but My Miss Aurelia was under pressure early and late and I don't think she was going to let the other filly by her if they'd gone around again.

Alive for $11,225 to the #6 (firster Magic Box) and $8,758 to the #9 (second-timer Drinksonthehouse). The $10 insanity-insurance pick-4 (see comment section)to the firster #8 Going Green would come back $2,225. At least I seem to have guessed correctly between the firsters as Magic Box is 3-1 and GG is 13-1.  

Everyone in the race iis covered except #7 Sweet a Way, who would produce a $280,286 double-carryover.

 

5:45 pm: Ouch:

First post tomorrow is 1 p.m. Time for an adult beverage.

joe r More than 1 year ago
not to change the subject, but anyone want to hazard a quess on what year thoroughbred racing would consider itself a professional sport in the usa? i don't know either, but the reason i'm asking is because each week the pennsylvania lottery website has a trivia question and the question is what is the oldest professional sport in the usa? they are saying baseball, i say its horse racing.
Diceman More than 1 year ago
The Winner in Sar's 10th was Stickout once You drew a Line thru its last race at SAR. I loved the Winner, but true to my convictions, I did not make a Play since it was a Maiden Race. The Horses's previous Bel Races were excellent and with decent Beyer Figures. Steve, you are Gambler with" Deep Pockets!" In my judgment, you are also one of the best Handicappers on the Planet. I keep asking myseld the same rhetorical question: How did you miss the Winner in the 10th. Please share with us your rationale for leaving the Winner out of your Pick 6 Tickets? [I'm glad for you that the 23-1 shot was such a cinch. I don't know how I failed to prefer a 0-for-19 horse to a second-time starter who had beaten him and whose lone start was better than any of the winner's 19 races. -SC]
chris lowe More than 1 year ago
re: sunday pick six I, too, talked myself into betting the six in the finale. Much to my chagrin, about 30 seconds to post, I noticed ZERO gate works. Sigh......
charlie L More than 1 year ago
tough beat Steve. Getting beat by an obscure twenty something to one shot. There are all types of bad beats in gambling, but horse racing has the cruelest beats.
Kruffian More than 1 year ago
Hi Steve, #6 doesn't get out of the gate in the 10th. Why does the days finale always seem like an adventure this year? lol
Eric More than 1 year ago
Anyone else get a little deja vu from the Adirondack? Ten years ago, Cashier's Dream and You ran an equally thrilling stretch duel in their Adirondack. Gave me goose bumps then, and again yesterday.
ralph conte More than 1 year ago
hi steve, how come in Md Sp Wt. races (state breds are run for 40K and open is run for $50K? in PA and NJ state breds are run for more. thanks, ralph [My guess would be that a)New York wants to attract the best 2yos from around the country to run in open MSW 2yo races, and b)NY runs a lot more statebred msw races than NJ or PA and thus has to spread its money around. In my opinion, open races SHOULD offer bigger purses than races restricted to statebreds. -SC]
ralph conte More than 1 year ago
i can see that. i guess in NJ they do that to keep Jersey breds to race in NJ and not leave NJ to race out of state. thanks again steve.
alhattab More than 1 year ago
Ralph- the J-breds are generally not competitive in open company. The $ are there in part as Steve notes b/c the season is shorter and the J-breds have limited time to make the money. I heard earlier this year that there is a law that requires statebred races to pay a certain % more than the comparable open company race. That is why this year you see Monmouth carding $100k state-bred maiden claimers and starter allowance races that are really NW1X allowance races, to do an end-around this law.
Richhf More than 1 year ago
The 1-4 (and also the 3-4) is an United Tote thing. Used to bug me when it would come up on the tote boards Capital OTB displayed on TV. So when NYRA changed over years ago, it still bugged me seeing it come up here. If we really need to get detailed on the $2.10-$4.00 payoffs, let's start using 2-9, 4-9, 5-9, 7-9 and 8-9 odds. :P Otherwise, there's enough disparity between 1-5 and 2-5.
yuwipi More than 1 year ago
Honestly don't know how you can stand the tension. They'd have an oxygen mask on me. To top it off it had to be a turf sprint that undid you. Sometimes you have to wonder what makes this planet spin around. Still have almost half the meet to go, keep swinging.
Alexander Morris More than 1 year ago
When a trainer has 2 top horses running in seperate stakes at seperate tracks always take a chance with the one where the trainer stayed!!! Clement didn't even go to Chicago for Gio Ponti!! He was in Saratoga for Winchester.