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"Sou-Million" Scalped by Stewards
The headline wrote itself after THE APACHE crossed the wire first in last week's Arlington Million:
Then, the inquiry light started to flash.
Hold the presses.
I picked The Apache in the DRF video preview of the Million and didn't need to see the head-on replay to know he was coming down.
I'm simply snakebit in that race.
It wasn't that long ago (2004 to be exact) that I needed POWERSCOURT for a big ticket. He won and was disqualified. It hurt even more when he came back to beat me the following year. In 2003, it was STORMING HOME who finished first for me only to be slapped by the stewards.
After taking my medicine, I wasn't going to argue with the call against The Apache. Real Solution had all of the momentum and it appeared he was going right by The Apache when the interference occurred. Also, Christophe Soumillon continued to flag The Apache left-handed while drifting out into Real Solution's path.
*DANK exploded through the stretch to win the prestigious Beverly D. Stakes, but I have this nagging feeling that there may be several better waiting overseas for a crack at this fall's Filly and Mare Turf. Beverly D. winners do not have a good record in the Breeders' Cup, but there's no denying that she was very impressive.
*RENEESGOTZIP was the lone speed on paper and she zipped right to the top en route to a sizzling score in the Rancho Bernardo Handicap at Del Mar. Although 6-6 on synthetic tracks, she did finish a good second to Book Review in the Grade 1 La Brea on dirt and was third in last year's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Trainer Peter Miller has plenty of options.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (8/12/13 - 8/18/13):
1. DANK (GB) - 108 - Beverly D. Stakes - 1 3/16 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
2. EVOLUTION ROCKS - 104 - Clm 10000(10-9) - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
3. LAST GUNFIGHTER - 103 - Philip H. Iselin Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Monmouth
3. RENEESGOTZIP - 103 - Rancho Bernardo Handicap (G3) - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Del Mar
5. HELISKIER - 102 - OC 25k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Canterbury
6. HERBIE D - 100 - Longacres Mile (G3) - 1 Mile - Emerald
6. REAL SOLUTION - 100 - Arlington Million (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
6. SOUPER SPEEDY - 100 - OC 100k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs - Saratoga
6. STRAPPING GROOM - 100 - Kid Russell Stakes - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Saratoga
10. HOGY - 98 - Troy Stakes - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Saratoga
10. PRINCESS OF SYLMAR - 98 - Alabama Stakes (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles - Saratoga
12. COMMANDER - 97 - Westerner Handicap - 1 1/16 Miles - Northlands
12. JOY BOY - 97 - OC 40k/N2X -N - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Indiana
12. LOUISIANA GLORY - 97 - Louisiana Cup Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Louisiana
12. MOE MAN - 97 - John Bullit Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Canterbury
16. BIG BLUE KITTEN - 96 - Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga
16. FORTE DEI MARMI (GB) - 96 - Sky Classic Stakes (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Woodbine
16. SLUMBER (GB) - 96 - OC 100k/C -N - 1 3/16 Miles (Turf) - Saratoga
19. DETERMINATO - 95 - Alw 39500C - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Calder
19. DOUBLE JUDGE - 95 - Alw 6250s - 1 Mile - Gulfstream
19. MY PAL CHRISY - 95 - Paseana Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
19. SECOND STREET CITY - 95 - Hoist Her Flag Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Canterbury
23. DANDINO (GB) - 94 - American St. Leger - 1 11/16 Miles (Turf) - Arlington
23. STRING KING - 94 - Louisiana Cup Turf Classic Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Louisiana
23. WORK ALL WEEK - 94 - OC 75k/C -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Indiana
*DANK's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Could you post the lifetime past perfomances for the last 10 Travers winners?
They are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Thanks for selecting the Arlington Million. One of the key reasons for asking is this is a great race year after year. Also, we get to learn how to handicap US Thoroughbreds and the Euros/South African horses.
How do you compare Euro's Racing Post figures to the US Beyer Speed Figures??
I think it's very dangerous to attempt a conversion from Racing Post Ratings to Beyer Speed Figures as they aren't even close to being on the same scale. Check out the following link on Racing Post Ratings to learn more:
When you get the chance, you're definitely going to want to check out "RACEHORSE," the latest production from Jessica Pacheco, racing analyst at Arlington Park.
Things take a tragic turn in Episode 6 of Racehorse, as Ali's Racing Stable is forced to deal with the loss of Givenchi.
Previous episodes can be found at:
The weekend handicapping videos should be up on the homepage later this week.
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
There were no winners of last week's HandiGambling contest.
Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
Let's go with the Travers Stakes for this week's race.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***
I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
Best of luck to all.
|Copy of Formblog Arlington Million 8-17-13.xls||67 KB|
Annie, I meant to answer your question. No I didn't play it. I never did play a wager in the Travers. But ugh. when I saw the payoff for the win I was ugh. on hg I thought Palice Malice was the one to beat. Get em' next time. --Rick
PennNatRick, Um, I guess that answers my question. You apparently did not bet your MKB. :) Annie
Dave - Thanks again. Formulator did get back to me to explain. TR = Turf Rail position out from permanent rail. Those numbers are the Moss Pace Figures. He gave me a link about them to study. Unfortunately they are for dirt races only, so we're on our own as far as turf races go! I've found one reason to justify the extra expense of the Formulator PPs: clarifying or validating the trip notes and end results. Since you can watch the race for an individual horse in question from the past performances by clicking on the blue highlighted trip notes, you can "see for yourself" and draw your own conclusion(s). For instance, on Bluegrass Flash in the 5th the running line says he was beaten 3/4 length, but it was actually closer to a length. The trip notes are accurate. And in the 7th race, I think Clement got a bit fooled as far as Viva Allegiances ability goes, as he started him in a $25k maiden claimer. After watching the replay from the PPs he won so effortlessly after gaining the lead and exploding down the stretch angling inside the leader around the 8th pole, showing no signs of shying from the rail as young horses are sometimes prone to do. He might have a shot right back as I think the favorite English Rhythm is vulnerable and he's more dangerous at a mile an a sixteenth.
Just Jan Update She ran 5th beaten 9.5L. JJ looked a bit heavy in the paddock to my untrained eye although she is a well-built filly. She broke a tad slow but was moved into the pace along the rail. The first quarter was quick 22 then softened to 46. She was done at head of the lane. She did not switch leads when asked at head of lane. Jockey McMahon upon dismount says “let me ride her back. She will win next time”. You have to love salesmen or jockeys. Don’t you. This was a very slowly run MSW at 1:12.36. Maybe a reverse key race. It is amazing how hard Jones gets bet. 5-2 and off 18 month break. Mike’s 4 year old grandson Tucker summed it up best post race saying “Papi that was pitiful”. He is a sweet kid. I expect a better run from Totally Tucker tonight. She obviously appears live on paper in a beatable field. If you review her works during the layoff versus Just Jan you will see a much quicker pre-race work of 1:00.20. The problem with TT is she will have little value in win pool. I expect 8-5 so that means a no go in that pool. I may try to structure a pick 4 but only if I can find two live prices to work with the low priced TT.
Ron I was impressed with Indiana Downs. It is much newer than Hoosier Park but it was nice. I liked the simulcasting area especially. The clubhouse dining was good although the menu was weak. Again it was Tuesday night so I give them a pass there. I agree on the posting of injuries for the bettors but I doubt it ever happens. It would take some of the risk out of the claiming game. My point of reference is off a year or year plus means a MAJOR problem. These types are often form compromised . I usually avoid first back but again it depends on how big the price is. If off 4-6 months not so concerned but still look at value and works closely. You can email me at Dmiddleton@namic.org and I will discuss your question off line.
Andy: RU means run up distance. It startled me back in the day to have someone tell me the clocking of race does not start at the gate. The RU’s vary at tracks explaining why some tracks have quicker first quarter times with the longer RU distance. It should be measured in feet. I have a question for the Blog. Why wouldn’t all tracks just measure a 6F race from the gate to the finish. I imagine configuration comes into it but at Churchill for instance they have a long backstretch. The starting gate can be placed exactly 6F from the wire. The gates open and you start the clock. Why have the run up to allow horses a flying start versus the clock measurement? Now if I bet horses for a living full time I would have spreadsheets that calculated this factor so I could determine the exact first quarter speed from varying tracks. I usually do old school DRF Classic PP’s but occasionally use Formulator. Others can probably define this better but race shape to me would be was it fast early (Q1 or Q2), then average in middle then slow late. This could be a contested lead scenario. The inverse could be a slow early 25 on grass, then quickening to 24 then 23 seconds to finish. Slow early but fast late. Good information to know as you can see how it impacts the different running styles of the entrants. Closers typically are enhanced by hot early duels and speed enhanced with soft early trips. The pace should be a measure of how quick they are going early but others should be able to decipher that out a bit better. I too could not access the workouts. First time I have seen that but probably up this morning.
Dan, I was talking to my co-worker and she takes care of a old thoroughbred. 26 years old and going strong. He has Seattle Slew bloodlines and went by the name: International Slew. It looks like this horse stayed in the northeast and ran at Penn Nat and Laurel. If possible would you have any PP's for him? Thanks! Rick
Wow! HG Travers Results Will Take Charge held true to the name. Nosing out Moreno for the win. Congrats to Swede for nailing a $4 Superfecta that paid over $10k. Drinks are on Swede! Gerry V. came along and got a $50 place on Moreno that paid just over $630 and Ed Kay gets change for his parking meter by having $1 to show on WTC paying $2.60. Congrats to Swede on a great handicapping contest! PNR
David- Thanks for getting me up to speed! So I purchase my 1st clocker report late last night PST all excited to download @ 3PM EST to factor things into my handicapping, and guess what?!? IT'S STILL NOT UP HAHA!! Just my luck, eh?!? I've called the DRF customer service line (3x since 12:30 PST) and they try their best but they have no DIRECT PHONE NUMBER!! HA! Hope this isn't a portend for my "luck" in the pick six tomorrow!!! Gotta laugh. I remember when I worked in Miami back in the day. Loved Hialeah! Too bad it's embroiled the way it is/has been for awhile. 'KEEP POLITICS outta the sport. (Yeah, fat chance!). It'd be a shame if it goes the way of Hollywood park. But I digress. Loved reading a column in the Miami Herald sports page during that time (yeah I'm that old) titled, "Broken Down Horse player". Chronicled the innumerable ways one can lose a bet!! Taint it the truth!!! Sorry for the stream of consciousness rant! Let's all go make some $$ tomorrow and beyond! And towards that end I need help deciphering the gobbledygook found in DRF formulator PPs. I've gone to their FAQ page to no avail. Even emailed Formulator help. So here's the deal: 1. What does the bold faced "RU" mean under the race date and how is it best factored into handicapping? (I think I've got an idea but would rather hear it from the horses mouth! (Can't believe I just said that..) 2. Decipher "Race Shape" for me and what do the superimposed numbers mean? Why are there two and then a final 3rd number with no superimposed figure? 3. Same for the "Pace Line" numbers, including the final figure. Thanks for humoring me everyone! I've only been playing since the late 70's and had my share of good (and bad) fortune, but all this newfangled internet data makes my brain into porridge.
Dan - any chance you can publish lifetime PP's for Miss Dolan's Rose? I flipped on TVG last night and just happened to catch her winning a race at Mountaineer. Not a frequent winner, but a hard knocker, and I did have her at a decent price a couple of years ago at BEL. Thanks!