05/18/2017 5:09PM

Some Pimlico stakes thoughts

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Featuring a bulky field of evenly-matched horses, Friday's Black-Eyed Susan Stakes looks like a fantastic betting race.
 
First, let's look at the shorter-priced contenders:
 
I can certainly understand the position that SUMMER LUCK's form is dirty and that she'll finally benefit from a fast pace on Friday afternoon. I liked her performance in the Davona Dale on March 4 as she was up against a one-mile track profile at Gulfstream that favored front runners and pace-pressers during their winter meet. Also, she was held up in traffic during a crucial juncture on the turn before being altered to the outside turning into the stretch. 
 
In her most recent start, the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland, she tried to rally from last in a paceless race contested over a speed-favoring track. Her running style, and the surface, really worked against her. 
 
Summer Luck is a logical factor, but she will likely take strong tote support considering her impressive company lines. I'll use her defensively in multiple-race wagers as I'm not convinced this nine-furlong distance is truly up her alley.
 
MOANA is the 4 to 1 morning line favorite in the Black-Eyed Susan for Pletcher and Velazquez, and was a professional maiden winner last month at Keeneland. I didn't think that maiden field she beat was that great, however, and this seems like a big class hike at a relatively short price.
 
SHIMMERING ASPEN couldn't have been more impressive when hammering 'n2x' optional claimers at Laurel on April 29 (see below). 
 
 
 
She has big speed in a race full of other gas, though, and the inside post forces her hooves. She has to go, go, go and hope the expected quick fractions coupled with the additional distance doesn't take her down. I like this filly, but I do wonder if the race flow hurts her win chances as she stretches out around two turns for the first time in her career.
 
I want a price in this race and ended up in ACTRESS, a maiden stretching out in distance for high-percentage trainer Jason Servis. She's a daughter of Tapit out of Woodbine Oaks winner Milwaukee Appeal so I'm not too concerned about the extra ground she'll cover on Friday. 
 
She gave a good account of herself in her most recent start at Gulfstream Park as she was forced to move a bit early from in between horses before being outfinished by the favored winner. 
 
 
 
According to the Beyers, she is just as fast as several of the more-fancied contenders in the race and has a world of potential with this only being her third lifetime start. 
 
As win overlays, I'll consider Actress along with TAPA TAPA TAPA, a filly that was part of a very strong pace at Oaklawn Park last time out. She doesn't need the lead and can settle into the second flight here while saving valuable ground.
 
Matt Bernier and I took a look at the Black-Eyed Susan for DRF TV. Here's our preview:
 
 
 
I wanted to be clever in the Preakness, but eventually chalked out with ALWAYS DREAMING. He ran hard every step of the way in the Derby and his good positional speed should have him in the mix when the real running begins. Perhaps MULTIPLIER can pick up some pieces at a big price for the single-race exotics.
 
Here's what Matt, Mike Beer and I had to say about the Derby:
 


On the Preakness undercard, I'm looking forward to THREE RULES in the Chick Lang. He's a very talented horse that was ambitiously-placed in longer-distance Kentucky Derby preps. He's getting the turnback he needs here. 
 
In the Sir Barton, HONOR THE FLEET looks like an improving sort that can work out an inside trip against favored HEDGE FUND and TIME TO TRAVEL. In the Dixie, I'll give RING WEEKEND another chance. 
 
Best of luck this weekend!
 
***
 
Dan and the Met Mile
Dan, what no Practical Joke? That is my MKB and that THAT IS THE RACE HE IS BRED TO WIN. Not sure how he cam out of the Derby, but it looks like he would love that one turn mile and if he came out of the Derby OK, it would be good spacing. I know it is tough as a 3YO against older, but I would likely bet him in that spot...
Professor Molesap
 
Practical Joke is likely to run next in the Dwyer Stakes for 3-year-olds on the Belmont Stakes undercard. One of the horses that I failed to mention last week for the Met Mile is IMPERATIVE, who seems to be in career form for trainer Bob Hess.
 
***
 
For free video analysis of some of the weekend's major stakes races, take a look at http://video.drf.com/
 
Please watch "Out of the Gate," a handicapping program that previews the weekend's best races. This week, we cover Preakness Saturday. 
 
"Out of the Gate" will premiere at 12:30 p.m. ET at live.drf.com and will also be available on demand at video.drf.com as well as Daily Racing Form's YouTube and Facebook pages An audio podcast version is also available on iTunes and SoundCloud. 
 
 
I'll be on with Mike Beer and Matt Bernier and will be joined by DRF Breeding's Nicole Russo, noted tournament player Jonathon Kinchen and Timeform US handicapper and figure-maker Craig Milkowski.
 
You can check me out on Twitter @DRF_Dan Illman.
 
For up-to-date video releases from DRF, follow DRFTV on Twitter @DRFvideo.
 
***
 
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 5/10/17 - 5/16/17
 
1. ZHUKOVA (IRE) - 107 - (G1) Man o' War Stakes - 1 3/8 Miles (Turf) - 13May17-8BEL
2. KENJISSTORM - 101 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 14May17-1SA 
3. HAWKSMOOR (IRE) - 100 - (G3) Beaugay Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 13May17-6BEL
4. CREWMAN - 98 - (G3) Hanshin Cup - 1 Mile (Polytrack) - 13May17-8AP 
4. WILBO - 98 - OC 100k/N$Y -N - 6 Furlongs - 12May17-4CD 
6. AMERICAN ANTHEM - 97 - (G3) Lazaro Barrera Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 13May17-5SA 
6. HIGHWAY STAR - 97 - (G2) Ruffian Stakes - 1 Mile - 13May17-10BEL
6. TIMELINE - 97 - (G3) Peter Pan Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - 13May17-4BEL
9. LOOSE ON THE TOWN - 96 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - 11May17-8BEL
10. ARMS RUNNER - 95 - Desert Code Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 13May17-4SA 
10. LEX VEGAS - 95 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 12May17-8BEL
10. LONG MAY YOU RUN - 95 - Alw 10000s - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 13May17-6PRX
13. JIMMY BOUNCER - 94 - OC 20k/N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 11May17-7SA 
14. RAINBOW HEIR - 93 - Wolf Hill Stakes - 5 Furlongs - 13May17-10MTH
14. YORKTON - 93 - Queenston Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Tapeta) - 13May17-8WO 
16. BOMBARD - 92 - OC 40k/N1X -N - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 12May17-3SA
16. NOBODY'S FAULT - 92 - Unbridled Sidney Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 13May17-10CD 
16. UNSCATHED - 92 - Alw 28500C - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 13May17-5AP 
16. WESTFEST - 92 - Clm 50000(50-40)N2L - 6 Furlongs - 14May17-1CD 
20. ARE WE NOT MEN - 91 - Clm c-20000 - 1 1/16 Miles - 10May17-7BEL
20. STORMY ROCIT - 91 - OC 40k/N1X - 5 1/2 Furlongs - 13May17-3SA
20. ALGORHYTHMIC - 90 - OC 20k/N1X -N - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 12May17-5SA  
20. DAN THE GO TO MAN - 90 - Alw 50196N1X - 1 Mile - 12May17-8CD 
20. I'LL WRAP IT UP - 90 - Clm 32000(32-28) - 1 1/16 Miles - 12May17-7SA 
25. FAYPIEN - 89 - Angels Flight Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 14May17-7SA 
25. FIRST GROWTH - 89 - Alw 8000s - 6 Furlongs - 12May17-2TDN
25. GAMBLER'S GHOST - 89 - OC 30k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - 13May17-9MTH
25. GIGANTIC BREEZE - 89 - Alw 74527N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) - 13May17-7WO 
25. PELLUCID (GB) - 89 - OC 40k/N1X -N - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 11May17-1SA 
 
*Zhukova's lifetime past performances available at the bottom of this blog post.
 
*Are We Not Men was claimed for $20,000 by trainer John Toscano from Rudy Rodriguez.
 
***
 
Congrats to edb for winning the most recent HandiGambling challenge.
 
Rick M and SR VEGAS' HG scoreboard spreadsheet is available at the bottom of this blog post. 
 
The Preakness is this week's HandiGambling exercise. 
 
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
PLEASE NOTE THE BLACK-EYED SUSAN/PREAKNESS STAKES DAILY DOUBLE IS AN AVAILABLE WAGER FOR THIS WEEK'S CONTEST. FREE BLACK-EYED SUSAN FORMULATOR PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT http://www.drf.com/race-of-the-day
 
SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to update all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2017:
 
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2017
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
 
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

 

AttachmentSize
ZHUKOVA.pdf728.12 KB
Copy of HG 5 13 17 HG Hanshin.xls51.5 KB
HG 5 13 17 Hanshin notes.doc31 KB
HGPREAKNESS.pdf204.68 KB