05/15/2013 7:39PM

Some Horses to Watch

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Let's take a look at some up-and-coming horses to watch:

RAINBOW HEIR:

A New Jersey-bred son of the fleet Wildcat Heir, 3-year-old Rainbow Heir hasn't been headed in three lifetime starts.  Last week, he received a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after blazing six furlongs in 1:08.46 in a statebred allowance at Monmouth.  Trained by Ben Perkins Jr., Wildcat Heir is out of a stakes-placed sprinter and is one to follow in stakes company going short.

WORK ALL WEEK:

An Illinois-bred 4-year-old, Work All Week finished off the board in his lone start of 2012, but that race was a turf route and Work All Week has blossomed since being allowed to sprint on the main track.  Trained by Roger Brueggemann for Midwest Thoroughbreds, the son of City Zip has led throughout all of his three starts this year.  He now owns triple-digit Beyers on both dirt and polytrack and will be pointed to a statebred stakes race at Arlington.

BROADWAY EMPIRE:

Expect improvement next time for this son of Empire Maker.  After winning his debut on dirt at Turf Paradise by 16 1/2 lengths (97 Beyer), the Roberto Diodoro-trained 3-year-old missed time with an illness.  He returned in solid form, finishing second to sharp gate-to-wire sprinter LET EM SHINE in the Came Home Stakes, a seven-furlong heat contested over a speed-favoring Betfair Hollywood Park surface.  Broadway Empire is a half-brother to stakes-winning miler Cinderella's Dream and deserves a chance to successfully stretch out in distance.

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*STAKES HORSES ON THE WORKTAB:

May 15:

*ENDORSEMENT (aggravated old injury) - Keeneland - 7 Furlongs - 1:28.40 b (1/1)
*FORDUBAI (cough) - Arlington - 5 Furlongs - 1:00.40 b (2/31)
*EXECUTIVEPRIVILEGE (quarter cracks) - Betfair Hollywood - 3 Furlongs - 37.00 h (11/18)

May 14:
*FLASHY GRAY (Bruised right front heel) - Saratoga training - 4 Furlongs - 48.60 b (2/22)

May 13:
*SWIFT WARRIOR (tied up) - Belmont training - 5 Furlongs - 1:01.23 b (6/28)
*RYDILLUC (bruised foot) - Belmont - 1 Mile - 1:43.67 b (1/1)
*CALIDOSCOPIO (sore foot) - Santa Anita - 5 Furlongs - 1:00.60 h (8/20)
*BIG BAND SOUND (injured) - Woodbine - 5 Furlongs - 59.40 b (1/40)
*WAVE THEORY (cuts on leg) - Belmont - 4 Furlongs - 48.45 b (26/96)

May 12:
*TIZ A MINISTER (bruised foot) - Betfair Hollywood - 4 Furlongs - 48.80 h (19/53)
*JACKSON BEND (back swelling, soreness, possible concussion, unretired) - Calder - 4 Furlongs - 47.80 b (2/28)

May 11:
*DISTINCTIV PASSION (bruised foot) - Betfair Hollywood - 3 Furlongs - 35.80 h (2/19)
*PAYNTER (pneumonia, colitis, laminitis, etc.) - Betfair Hollywood - 5 Furlongs - 1:00.60 h (11/45)

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (5/6/13 - 5/12/13):

1. LET EM SHINE - 107 - Came Home Stakes - 7 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
1. SAINT LEON - 107 - OC 80k/C -N - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Arlington
3. WORK ALL WEEK - 102 - Alw 51480N1X - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Arlington
4. CONSOLIDATOR JOE - 100 - OC 60k/N2X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
4. PASS YOU BYE BYE - 100 - Decathlon Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
6. FREEDOM CHILD - 99 - Peter Pan Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
7. RELOAD - 98 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
8. RAINBOW HEIR - 97 - Alw 55000C - 6 Furlongs - Monmouth
9. SAGINAW - 96 - OC25k/SAL25k - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
10. DHAAMER (Ire.) - 94 - Round Table Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
10. MINE OVER MATTER - 94 - Corma Ray Stakes - 7 Furlongs - Belmont
10. PERCUSSION - 94 - Albert the Great Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Belmont
13. GOOD DEED - 93 - Unbridled Sidney Stakes - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Churchill
13. NO SILENT - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
13. RETREIVE - 93 - OC 75k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
13. TRAIN TO DESTINY - 93 - OC10k/SAL5k - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - Louisiana
13. TRAFFIC LIGHT - 93 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 7 Furlongs - Parx
18. ALPHA BETTOR - 92 - Eclipse Stakes (G2-C) - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - Woodbine
18. POINT TAKEN - 92 - Hcp 16000s - 1 1/16 Miles - Belmont
18. RIGBY - 92 - Clm c-20000 - 6 Furlongs - Belmont
18. TIEMPO LIBRE - 92 - Alw 16000s - 6 Furlongs - Parx
22. LA TIA - 91 - OC 80k/N3X -N - 1 Mile (Turf) - Arlington
22. TRIPLE A. RATING - 91 - Clm 12500(12.5-10.5) - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
24. ESENTEPE (Ire) - 90 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
24. KILAT - 90 - Alw 54750N1X - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
24. POWER BROKER - 90 - Alw 51384N1X - 1 1/16 Miles - Churchill
24. TENANGO - 90 - OC50k/SAL50k - 1 Mile - Belmont

*The lifetime past performances for Let Em Shine and Saint Leon are available at the bottom of this blog post.

*Rigby was claimed for $20,000 by trainer David Jacobson from Rudy Rodriguez.

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once heard a wise man say, you can pick the winner, you can even pick your nose, you just can't pick the odds you get. I understand the concept of jumping off a horse because the odds are too low. I have done that too only to have the horse I thought was going to win, Win easily and only pay $5. We try to look for value when investing in a wager. The thrill of winning with a 10- 1 vs an even money shot there is no comparison. That being said.
My question to you Dan is...
How often do you regret going off your original horse and if so are you making more of a profit or just making more regrets...
The one to fear the most to beat Orb is not Departing. Departing had already lost to horses that Orb has already beaten by open lengths. The Horse to fear the most are the unknown quantities such as Govenor Charlie who Orb has nothing to compare to.
One horse I am glad to see decline the Preakness was another unknown quantitie.
This one continues to improve but his connections state they are not going.
Bellarmine. Continues to improve but the connections are taking the Shug approach and the horse will tell them when he is ready.
BTW...I love Orb
Best of luck...
Phil Bailey

I rarely regret going off my original selection due to depressed odds.  An underlay is an underlay.  Even if it wins.  We all love the feeling of picking a winner, but the only way to make money is to demand value with all of your wagers.  If I believe a horse is a 6-1 chance and he goes off at 5-2, I don't feel comfortable betting.  If he wins, I tip my cap to those that cashed and move on without looking back.  Now, when betting multiple-race wagers, I will use horses that may be underlays in the win pool if I believe them to have an excellent chance of prevailing.  I'm trying to connect them with bigger-priced horses in the other legs in order to maximize their value and payout.

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Dan, is there any way you can post all the European races with million dollar or more purses and what the purse is? It will help me know which European races are the best of the best. Also what are the ten most prestigious races in the world in your opinion? I see a lot of grade ones but all grade ones aren't equal. Some are on another level. What are those races? I know what they ate in America but I'm not sure about foreign races.
Brandon Layer

Here are some Group 1 races with estimated seven-figure purses:

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (4 million Euros)
Prix du Jockey Club (1.5 million Euros)
Epsom Derby (1.325 million Pounds)
Irish Derby (1.250 million Euros)
Prix de Diane (1 million Euros)
King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (1 million Pounds)

I'm not sure the value of rating races by purse money, however.  In taking stock of the classier European races, generally I'd rank the Group 1 races by country while mentioning a handful of other quality Group 1 events. 

France (Prix du Moulin, Prix Jacques le Marois, Prix d'Ispahan, Prix Ganay)
England (Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, Prince of Wales's Stakes, Champion Stakes, International Stakes)
Ireland (Irish Champion Stakes, Tattersalls Gold Cup)

Germany (Grosser Preis Von Berlin, Grosser Preis Von Baden, Preis Von Europa)
Italy (Gran Premio del Jockey Club)

Hope this helps.

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Dan, nice to see another son of Malibu Moon make headlines today! Can you please post the past performances for Malibu Moon, Family Hero, and Terror To Go?
yo

The past performances are available at the bottom of the blog post.

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You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman

Handicapping videos with Mike Beer for Friday's graded races at Pimlico are available at the below link:

http://www.drf.com/events/black-eyed-susan-stakes-pimlico

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Congrats to Alex for finishing first in last week's HandiGambling exercise.

Rick M's scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.

Let's go with Saturday's Preakness as this week's race.

PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
 
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.

AttachmentSize
Top Beyer Horses.pdf72.77 KB
Malibu Moon.pdf572.44 KB
Family Hero.pdf56.13 KB
Terror To Go.pdf573.25 KB
Copy of Formblog Peter Pan 5-11-13.xls66.5 KB
HGPreakness.pdf268.43 KB