02/02/2018 2:18PM

Some good sprinters at Oaklawn

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Saturday's King Cotton Stakes at Oaklawn Park features several hard-hitting sprinters. Let's take a closer look. 
 
Ivan Fallunovalot (2) won this race in 2015 and 2016, and has banked almost a million dollars in his career.  That's not bad for a horse that was claimed for $25,000 in 2014. He obviously has an affinity for the Oaklawn surface and should benefit from his most recent start, a runner-up effort in the first race following a 112-day layoff. He's an extremely logical horse, but is 8-years-old now and might have to deal with other speeds. Here's the TimeformUS Pace Projector for the King Cotton. 
 
 
 
TimeformUS believes the pace will be fast and that St. Joe Bay (4) and Prime Engine (5) could press Ivan Fallunovalot for the lead. That scenario could set things up nicely for a stalker or closer. I'm hoping that Recount (7) will be that horse. 
 
Recount (7) ran a very game race at Churchill Downs on May 12. That afternoon, he was involved in a tough speed duel with a 31 to 1 shot, put that horse away and was only beaten a neck by a pace-aided Wilbo, who is also in the King Cotton. I bet Recount in his next start and was very surprised when he faded pretty tamely. Since that race preceded a 198-day layoff, I wonder if Recount injured himself in that race.
 
He returned at Oaklawn in the King Cotton prep, pressed Ivan Fallunovalot from the get-go, tried hard all the way around and watched as the opportunistic Wilbo ran them both down in the waning stages. 
 
The pace projector has Recount sitting back off the speeds this time around. Here's hoping that someone else does the dirty work with Ivan Fallunovalot, and that Recount will save something for the stretch.  He's worth a win wager at 5 or 6 to 1.
 
***
 
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 1/26/18 - 2/1/18:
1. Gun Runner - 119 - Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational - 1 1/8 Miles - 27Jan18-12GP
2. Rainbow Heir - 105 - Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 27Jan18-10GP
3. Army Mule - 103 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 31Jan18-4GP
4. Edwards Going Left - 102 - California Cup Sprint - 6 Furlongs - 27Jan18-4SA
4. Great Stuff - 102 - Grade 3 Toboggan Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 27Jan18-3AQU
6. Captain Scotty - 99 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - 26Jan18-2SA
6. Tommy Macho - 99 - Grade 3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes - 1 Mile - 27Jan18-7GP
8. Oscar Nominated - 98 - Grade 3 W. L. McKnight Handicap - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 27Jan18-8GP
8. Stormy Victoria (FR) - 98 - South Beach Stakes - 7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 27Jan18-11GP
10. Hogy - 97 - Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint - 5 Furlongs (Turf) - 28Jan18-6HOU
11. Afleet Willy - 96 - Native Dancer Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - 27Jan18-7LRL
11. Bigger Picture - 96 - Grade 3 John B. Connally Stakes - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 28Jan18-8HOU
11. Calculator - 96 - Clockers' Corner Stakes - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 28Jan18-4SA
14. Texting - 95 - Grade 3 La Prevoyante Handicap - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - 27Jan18-3GP
15. Niigon's Glory - 93 - Alw 16000s - 1 1/16 Miles - 27Jan18-5OP
15. Tiger Moth - 93 - Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic - 1 1/16 Miles - 28Jan18-9HOU
15. Will Call - 93 - OC 80k/C -N - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 26Jan18-3FG
18. Big Guy Ian - 92 - Clm 10000 - 6 Furlongs - 27Jan18-5AQU
18. Imma Bling - 92 - Spirit of Texas Stakes - 6 Furlongs - 27Jan18-7HOU
18. Rye - 92 - Unusual Heat Turf Classic - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 27Jan18-8SA
18. Still Having Fun - 92 - Frank Whiteley Stakes - 7 Furlongs - 27Jan18-8LRL
22. Ferguson - 91 - OC 40k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - 27Jan18-2SA
23. Line Judge - 90 - Clm c-(50-40)B - 6 Furlongs - 27Jan18-2FG
24. Fort Fortitude - 89 - Alw 76000N1X - 6 Furlongs - 27Jan18-9OP
24. How About Zero - 89 - Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Sprint - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 27Jan18-3SA
24. Incensed - 89 - OC 40k/N1X -N -  About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 26Jan18-7SA
24. Rated R Superstar - 89 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles - 27Jan18-6OP
 
Here are Gun Runner's lifetime past performances and the replay of his final career start. 
 
 
 
Gun Runner will stand for a $70,000 stud fee at Three Chimneys Farm in Kentucky.
Rainbow Heir has also been retired. He'll be at Ocala Stud in Florida with a $3,500 fee.
 
Line Judge was claimed for $50,000 by trainer Michael Maker from Thomas Amoss.
 
I review Edwards Going Left's sprint win in this week's Out of the Gate:
 
 
Mississippi, my top selection in Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes, is expected to scratch due to his lousy post position. Instead, I'll focus most of my play on Audible and Tiz Mischief and will use in equal weight in multiple-race wagers. 
 
***
 
Congrats to Joe L. for winning the most recent HandiGambling exercise. 
 
The weekly scoreboards are available for download at bottom of this blog post:
 
This week's race is Sunday's ninth from Santa Anita. 
 
FREE PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
 
Here are the rules:
 
HANDIGAMBLING version 2017:
Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place.
The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but SPARE A SENTENCE OR TWO outlining your HANDICAPPING ANGLES and/or THOUGHT PROCESSES about WAGERING.
 
1. Start your post with HG or HANDIGAMBLING to find your entry in a thread.
2. You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose that is available for that HG race. Anyone going over the $100 limit will be DISQUALIFIED.
3. Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog prior to the start of the designated race. SIGN OFF WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF YOUR POST. Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST SIGN YOURSELF AT THE END (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to identify who you are.
4. (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes. Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.
5. Separate your analysis from the wager and use the PROGRAM # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.
6. If any of the rules listed above aren't met, the wager is subject to review which can lead to disqualification of your entry.
 
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.
The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"
 
As an example :
 
HG 2017
The speed in this race are #1 Alpha, #2 Beta, and #8 Ocho. I like the works for layoff horse #5 Cinco who can sit off the pace. Lots of speed in here, so this could set up for a closer like  #6 Six Flags and I like the trainer's stats in these conditions. I’ll put the closer over the speed.
 
HG wager:
$10 EX   6 /   1,2,5, 8  = $40
$5 TRI   6 /   1,2,5,8  /  1,2,5,8  =  $60
Total $100
Thanks Dan!
Harpo
 
A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS  IS  ALWAYS  APPRECIATED !
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

 

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Copy of HG 1 28 18 GP 12 Claiming.xls48.5 KB
HG 1 21 18 SA9 Claiming notes.doc16.79 KB
HG0204SA.pdf149.56 KB