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Some fillies to follow
UNBRIDLED FOREVER stamped herself as a filly to watch with a fast maiden victory traveling seven furlongs at Churchill Downs on November 30.
Making her second career start and racing with Lasix for the first time, Unbridled Forever, ridden by Robby Albarado for trainer Dallas Stewart, tracked the leaders while three wide and between horses on the backstretch. Entering the turn, she attacked favored RESISTIVITY from the outside and took over for good with an eighth of a mile remaining. Looking professional in the stretch while racing on her right lead, Unbridled Forever drew away under one crack of the whip and stopped the timer in 1:21.91, good enough for a 96 Beyer Speed Figure.
The connections of any juvenile filly with promise at this time of year will obviously look ahead to the Kentucky Oaks in the spring amd Unbridled Forever has the pedigree to indicate she would stay that demanding nine furlong trip. In fact, her dam, Lemons Forever, won that very race in 2006 for Stewart at odds of 46-1. She's by Unbridled's Song and will likely winter at the Fair Grounds.
*Keeping an eye out for these comebackers, hopefully in the near future:
SPELLBOUND, a 3-year-old filly, hasn't raced since finishing fourth to Beholder in the Santa Anita Oaks on April 6. Soon after that race, she underwent surgery to remove a bone chip from an ankle. Trained by Richard Mandella, Spellbound is entered in Saturday's Grade 2 Bayakoa Handicap at Betfair Hollywood Park.
FLASHY GRAY, a 3-year-old filly trained by Bill Mott, recently returned to serious training after missing time with farious foot issues. She hasn't raced since finishing second in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks (97 Beyer) on March 30, but breezed an easy three furlongs in 38.10 at Payson Park on Wednesday morning.
DECEPTIVE VISION is a full sister to Queen's Plate hero Eye of the Leopard and multiple stakes-winner Hotep (over 700K in earnings). Trained by Malcolm Pierce, the 3-year-old filly suffered a bruised foot after winning two in a row at Fair Grounds last winter. More physical ailments followed and she was eventually turned out in Florida. She had her first work back on Wednesday morning, breezing a half-mile in 51.20 in New Orleans.
Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (11/25/13 - 12/1/13):
1. FLAT OUT - 110 - Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
2. PALACE - 104 - Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
3. BEN'S CAT - 103 - Fabulous Strike Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Penn National
3. SUMMER HIT - 103 - Berkley Handicap (G3) - 1 1/16 Miles (Tapeta) - Golden Gate
5. GANTRY - 102 - Thanksgiving Handicap - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
5. TAPTOWNE - 102 - Swatara Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Penn National
7. BEAR NO JOKE - 101 - Kennedy Road Stakes (G2-C) - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
7. WILL TAKE CHARGE - 101 - Clark Handicap (G1) - 1 1/8 Miles - Churchill
9. LAST GUNFIGHTER - 100 - Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (G2) - 1 1/4 Miles - Hawthorne
10. REFLECTED WAY - 99 - Alw 38600N2R - 1 Mile - Parx
10. SILENTIO - 99 - Citation Handicap (G2) - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
10. WILD DUDE - 99 - Alw 53858N1X - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
13. WEDDING TOAST - 98 - Comely Stakes (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles - Aqueduct
14. EGG DROP - 97 - Matriarch Stakes (G1) - 1 Mile (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
14. SAME CROSS - 97 - OC 62k/C -N - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
16. MAJESTIC STRIDE - 96 - Vernon O. Underwood Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
16. UNBRIDLED FOREVER - 96 - Md Sp Wt 40k - 7 Furlongs - Churchill
18. LONG RIVER - 95 - Time for a Change Stakes - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
18. OL WINEDRINKER WHO - 95 - ZIa Park Distance Championship Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Zia
18. SHOW ME THE WAY - 95 - Clm 16000(16-14)N3L - 5 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
18. WINE PRINCESS - 95 - Falls City Handicap (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles - Churchill
22. EDEN PRAIRIE - 94 - Pago Hop Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - Fair Grounds
22. SPA CITY FEVER - 94 - OC 62k/N2X - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
24. KNIGHTS NATION - 93 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - Churchill
24. MAJOR HIGHWAY - 93 - OC 40k/N3X -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Parx
24. ROYAL LAHAINA - 93 - Go For Wand Handicap (G2) - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
24. SEEK AGAIN - 93 - Hollywood Derby (G1) - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
*FLAT OUT's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
Arizona Wildcat/Steve T and Dan,
Thanks to you both for the physical handicapping document. I would also like to add another poster child to your "trouble lines" and their impact, Al Khali. This horse is absolutely uncanny at finding trouble. It doesn't matter if he is inside or outside, way back or mid pack. Trouble finds him constantly. (Incidently, he was the "Giant Oak" of Jim Tully) I think that this horse is typical of many large, long strided Dynaformers, Rock Hard Tens and Giant's Causeways, they just aren't really nimble if they end up steadied or bottled up.
So, Dan, could you please post the PPs of Al Khali so everyone can see the race comments? Thanks in advance.
AL KHALI's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.
We were really lined up for Black Onyx in the Kentucky Derby and he scratched the day before. They said on May 25th he had an ankle chip but after more xrays Breen said it was a hairline fracture and would need 6 weeks or so and then they would start him back working. Well it is November and there has been no word on him at all. Any ideas of what is going on with him?
Interestingly enough, he breezed three furlongs on turf Wednesday morning at Palm Meadows. Clocker Michael Vesce tweeted "Black Onyx back on worktab since pre Derby. Nice 3F work on the grass" while colleague Bruno DeJulio tweeted "Just watched Black Onyx have 1st work at PMM on turf, around dogs at 12 feet, for Kelly Breen- 3/8 in 37.3 on my watch out 5f in 104.2...Black Onyx went last furlong on grass in good 11.3, galloped out well over pristine turf course, all times unofficial off our own watch."
It looks as if we'll have our annual FormBlog Convention at Gulfstream Park early next year. For more details, head on over to Laura's excellent website
It's always a blast so come on out if you can.
The weekend handicapping previews should be available on the site soon.
You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman
Congrats to Biggar W. for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling contest.
Rick M's HandiGambling scoresheet is available at the bottom of this blog post.
Let's go with Friday's eighth race at Aqueduct for this week's exercise.
PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.
Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.
PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. One entry per person please.
I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.
Best of luck to all.
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.
ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).
***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***
I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
|FLAT OUT.pdf||727.25 KB|
|AL KHALI.pdf||768.82 KB|
|Copy of Formblog Cigar Mile 11-30-13.xls||68 KB|
David99999 asks " How can we train new people to profitably play our sport " Now, that is the 64 thousand $ question. It takes a lifetime of learning and the profitably is always somewhat elusive. The question should be, How do we get new people into horseracing? Well in my case, I went with family members and was drawn to the lure of easy money. Then at some point I realized that the easy money was a myth. But, I did not leave the game, my love for the history and bloodlines of the game has kept me in for over 40 years now. Do I still gamble on the horses? Hell yes, and like everybody else sometimes I win, sometimes I lose. If I kept a log of over 40 years of gambling would I be ahead of the game? Hell No! YFL
MKB I am very pleased about all the new participants that have signed up for the MKB. Once again, welcome! I hope you will enjoy the experience. And, of course, welcome back to the many loyal participants who have signed up year after year! However, with the deadline coming up tomorrow, I want to give a call out to the remaining former participants from which we have heard nothing in a long time. I always worry when people stop posting...that something might be wrong. So, if you see this, at least let us know that you are okay. ALAN MOLESAP HAIRY SCOTT CAPT. RON YOGI CASEYJEAUX KELLEY BELLES DIZZY BALTIMORE BRIAN COLIN ALYDARANDEASY BYANOSE STEPHEN TAYLOR RICK Annie
Symposium - Ad Nauseam I opened up the DRF this morning to see the annual UA Symposium on Racing and Gaming had opened. There was a power panel that included an eclectic mix including veteran tourney players Beychok & Hellmers, newbie Bernier, several others, and an Armani suit CEO type – Michael Kay. Reading the recaps nothing of note was discovered or accomplished. When a bright group of folks come up with basically the statement “I got nothing” that highlights the serious problems horse racing faces. Actually in fairness they did not say “I got nothing”. They offered various thoughts that included: It’s about stars dummy …. promote the sports stars. Get the young 30’s with disposable income into the sport. More women needed. Tournaments and internet replacing live race track. About guest experience. Don’t promote horses as they race only about 14 minutes a year. Easier ways to handicap including Timeform I don’t know that a round table including Michelangelo, Edison, Da Vinci, Newton, Galileo, and Ben Franklin could solve my beloved sport’s issues. As a simple man I certainly cannot. To me what got me to the sport and kept me there bottom line was gambling and competition. I wanted the chance to make money betting against other people. I also wanted to prove I was smarter than the rest of the crowd although that is certainly waning as I enter the home stretch of life. Sure the beauty, grace, power of the magnificent animals factor in. This is a certainly a beautiful sport. But strip away the gambling and sadly my one dimensional mind would only stop by a track a few times a year. For those of you that played athletics remember the feeling you had right before tipoff. That feeling was hard to quantify but it was real, it was powerful and it felt good. I still get that same feeling driving to the track and always before that first race. How can we educate and train new people to profitably play our sport? How can we tell people they are better off betting against each other rather than versus a casino? Those are important questions in my view. For me the education has taken four decades and still continues. Most people are not willing to invest 14,600 days preferring the stool, free cocktail, and a machine with a lever.
Okie, I'm speaking about Turf and more so in the fall than in the spring.....speed will play better when the course opens in April than it does in Nov. and the inside will play better in the spring than it does in the fall too, but it's always a good idea to really scrutinize horses who win on the engine at Aqu. regardless of what time of year it is. The course plays slower than either Belmont or Saratoga, on average about 10 lengths slower....so using raw times in any figures you make is problematical unless you see how the course was playing on a particular day. AS a rule of thumb though, any mile race won in 1:37 or less or a 1 1/16th in under 1:44 should be looked at, especially if the horse did it on the engine and ran a sub 24 final quarter for a mile and sub 30 for the final 5/16ths at aq 1 1/16th. When I played King Kreesa in his first turf race I did so because I loved his breeding and he was running first turf in a beatable field.......after the race It was because he won on the engine, a mile in 1;37:2 and he ran his last quarter in 23:4.....of course stride and other factors came into play, but I was sure he'd be a nice horse.....after breaking his maiden for 25,000 he's earned 657,000.00.......and knowing how a course plays made me pay attention..... As far as the Inner course at Aqu. if memory serves it's kind to speed types.....I'd have to look back, it's been 20 years since I bet the inner course.....times and things change......the Inner course tends to be a chalk players delight, they do get price horses, but they tend to be farther and fewer between after the first couple of weeks. I'll give you a tip.....like any track it plays well to horses who have shown a liking for it......believe it or not it is kinder to turf types than the main track is...turf horses will run well over it, albeit in the proper class. Never auto toss a turfer without looking first. Also pay attention to how a horse comes in that has run well over the course before but hasn't been winning lately.......say like Chilton in todays 5th......Mike A
Mike A. When you say: Aqueduct Is not overly kind to speed horses....are you talking dirt or turf, or inner or main? Okiesharp
DavidM9999, Years ago when I was still "youthful" I had a real good friendship with the racing writer for the Baltimore Sun. Whenever I went to Pimlico, Laurel or Timonium I would sit next to Dale Austin and shoot the breeze. He was a self avowed "lousy handicapper" but was an excellent writer and reporter. He broke the Valentine's Day Scandal that landed several Bowie jockeys in prison where one Eric Walsh committed suicide. The story is worthy of a movie or at least a 30 for 30 on ESPN. Of course the jockeys who held their horses got little of the money and ALL of the penalties. Great story. It happened in 1975 and the plan was hatched at a poker game. If the triple had paid $28 less or the brother of one of the riders had spread his bets around to more than one teller they would have gotten away with it. Jesse Davidson';s brother played an $18 tri-box "hit it 38 times" he said to teller who (analog days)punched it in. The first ticket that was attempted to be cased was by a 10% er. and it just fell apart from there. There was a kid(younger than me) who was almost always up there betting on horses, I think he was related to the mutual clerk in the press box. . He always had a lot to say and was a nice kid..... that guy turned out to be the new ML maker at the Maryland tracks. He has called charts for equibase, but for someone who has seen 50 times more races than I...well I guess he isn't so good at Math, but needs more time to make accurate lines. Thanks for the advice on ML odds and how to use..... I usually do not play horizontally... but will give it a tepid toe into those pools. Concerning Ignacio Correa.... he is the trainer for the storied Sagamore Farms(birthplace and burial place of one of the top 5 horses ever, Native Dancer: only loss Kentucky Derby). The farm was purchased and wants to get back to the greatness of Alfred Vanderbilt. The owner of Under Armour(Kevin Plank) is spending remarkable amounts of money in the pursuit of regaining its past glory. I wish him luck . The farm is gorgeous and I recommend ANYONE to visit it when they come to MD. I used to pass it everyday on my way to work. The old story about horse racing is funny. "You can make a small fortune in horse racing....... you have to start with a large fortune."
Chris Lowe, Yes, it is a real Kleenex box. However, it is not an ordinary Kleenex box. It's a magic Kleenex box. You will find out why on Saturday. Watch for my post. : ) Annie
JUMP TO RACE: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 Click here to print Print Thursday, December 12, 2013 Forecast Partly Sunny Precip: 8% High 55°F Low 46°F (Post Time: 1:00) Surface: Dirt GET PPs 1 Mile 70 Yards | Open | 3, 4 and 5 Year Olds | MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT | Purse: $45,000 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Daily Double # PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER CLAIM $ EQUIP. MED. 1 1 Song to You ML: 8-5 J. Graham 121 Lbs M. Stidham - L 2 2 Ten Indian ML: 6-1 J. Theriot 121 Lbs A. Stall, Jr. - L 3 3 Empire Taker ML: 7-2 L. Goncalves 123 Lbs D. Peitz - L 4 4 Seeking an Empire ML: 2-1 S. Bridgmohan 121 Lbs S. Margolis - L 5 5 Tappan Street ML: 20-1 M. Mena 121 Lbs N. Howard Blk-On L 6 6 Large Scale ML: 10-1 A. Reznikov 123 Lbs P. Vashchenko - L Horse to watch on Thursday from the FG. Race #1. #5 Tappen Street blinkers off, Trained by Neil Howard. 20-1 M/L Word is, this one has been kicking down the barn door, just needs a good start from the gate!!!! watch out. Could score at a big number.... Good Luck!!! Whackymacky Out!!!
Pat G: Thanks for your LRL posts and response about trainer Magee. I like playing this circuit. I try to exploit a bad or inflated (deflated) ML in the horizontal wagers. My personal experience is many bettors overload on favorites in horizontal wagers. I have friends who have been to the track for years that play Pick 3’s using a 3x3x3 sequence with all ML chalks. That is a recipe for disaster or at least a steady bleed out. I try to find a sequence with a bad ML chalk (top 2-3) and play the sequence without them if it is a deflated ML. I like inflated ML’s better. If it is an inflated ML meaning the line maker is underestimating the chances I will use that horse in a middle or last leg. Why? A lot of bettors let the board drive them to horses in pick 3 or 4. So if the horse is 15-1 ML but opens or is off at 4-1 the herd bettors use this animal. By using the middle or ending legs you are leveraging your opinion versus the line maker while protecting yourself from the herd that follows the tote to live animals. I agree the LRL line maker is not solid. The other day I saw one at 12-1ML that went off very low. I had him as second choice. I just used him in the middle and last legs. I was live to the final leg with the will pays being greatly elevated versus the other choices in the same odds neighborhood. Now the story had a bad ending. I still missed but at least the overlaid value potential was created. This works really well at lower tier tracks where line makers can be a bit weaker. SoCal is a bit different as Annie can attest. Also turf races are wonderful to use this technique on. A horse may have a bad dirt running line so the line maker gives him a high ML on grass. Really what you had was a dirt workout that is a fitness builder/prep and now a well- intentioned try for a turf move up animal. Since I play horizontals I see this a lot. The horse at GP out of excellent turf producer Stormy Atlantic Sunday was similar. Dirt efforts for show for LRL trainer Ignacio Correas (21% first turf), fast work at Payson, then a pop to front immediately on grass at 18-1. Won rather easily. His ML should have been lower in my opinion given first turf pedigree and sprinting but was 20-1.
Annie Do you use a real Kleenex box for the draw? Or is it Puffs? Family Dollar? LMAO! Chris Lowe