10/29/2015 12:20PM

Some Breeders' Cup price plays

Email

Last week, I mentioned some price horses to consider for your exotic and multiple-race Breeders' Cup wagers
(http://www.drf.com/blogs/some-pre-entry-thoughts).

 Here are a few more:

JUVENILE TURF
SHOGUN (12 to 1 MORNING LINE):

Of the European entrants, I prefer HIT IT A BOMB, but he is mired in an extremely difficult post position for this mile distance. If the post proves too much for the undefeated Hit It a Bomb, then Shogun deserves some consideration at nice odds. A full brother to Epsom Oaks winner Qualify, Shogun has moved forward in his last three races with blinkers and can continue his ascent with the addition of Lasix. Although Shogun finished behind CYMRIC in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere earlier in the month, Cymric might also be compromised by post position in the rematch.

***

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
ALICE SPRINGS (6 tO 1 MORNING LINE)
LAST WALTZ (20 to 1 MORNING LINE)

I don't believe that Alice Springs is a superstar, but she needn't be to make a strong impression on the Juvenile Fillies Turf. A full sister to multiple Group 2-placed Criteria and Group 3-placed Kingston Jamaica, Alice Springs received a confidence boost in her most recent start, the rich Tattersalls Millions at Newmarket on October 3. She seems like a tactical and professional sort that probably won't be outpaced in the early going.

Last Waltz is stuck in an extremely tough post position, but she was purchased privately following a third-place finish in a Group 3 at the Curragh. She raced in cheek pieces two and three starts back and started in a hood last time, but Chad Brown will remove the headgear for this assignment. She has a little bit of speed and shouldn't be discounted at a big price.

***

JUVENILE FILLIES 
LAND OVER SEA (8 to 1 MORNING LINE)

Although no match for SONGBIRD in both the Del Mar Debutante and Chandelier Stakes, Land Over Sea attempted to rally over speed-friendly tracks on both occasions. She showed no quit when second behind loose-on-the-lead Songbird in the latter race, boasts improving Beyer Speed Figures and would benefit if someone pushes Songbird early in the Juvenile Fillies. Land Over Sea should save valuable ground after breaking from the rail. The five-furlong work in 59 and change on October 16 indicates she's coming into this race in good form.

***

FILLY AND MARE TURF
MISS FRANCE (6 to 1 MORNING LINE)
BAWINA (15 to 1 MORNING LINE)

LEGATISSIMO is way the horse to beat in the Filly and Mare Turf, but Miss France and Bawina both have their merits. The former hasn't won since grabbing the English 1000 Guineas last year, but she was sidelined for most of 2015 with a splint injury and could be cycling back to a big effort in her third start of the year. There isn't much speed in this race and Miss France should be forwardly-placed. Note that the distance and possible soft going could work against her.

The distance and a wet turf course could help Bawina, who seems a cut below the major contenders from a class perspective. If the ground stays wet, however, Bawina should run well. Let's look at her last record over wet tracks:

3/8/14 - Prix Calandria (soft) - 1st by 1 1/4 lengths
5/11/14 - French 1000 Guineas - G1 (good to soft) - 4th, beaten 3 3/4 lengths
8/15/14 - Prix de Lierey (soft)- G3 - 1st by 1 3/4 lengths
5/1/15 - Prix du Muguet (soft) - G2 - 1st by 1 1/4 lengths (beat the good Esoterique)
8/23/15 - Prix Jean Romanet (soft) - G1 - 2nd by neck

She also has some decent races over firmer ground. In the Group 1 Falmouth Stakes on July 10, she was buried behind horses, couldn't extricate herself until inside the final furlong and finished a decent fourth. Oh, and she's 3 for 3 on left-handed courses.

***

JUVENILE
EXAGGERATOR (6 to 1 MORNING LINE)

I have great respect for GREENPOINTCRUSADER, who overcame an awkward start to win the Grade 1 Champagne, but I'll go with the consistent Exaggerator in the Juvenile. A professional sort that doesn't mind racing in and among horses, Exaggerator gave a good effort when second to BRODY'S CAUSE in the Breeders' Futurity. That race looks like a strong prep and Exaggerator's tactical speed could allow him to get the jump on that main rival once again.

TURF SPRINT:
UNDRAFTED (4 to 1 MORNING LINE)
STACKED DECK (30 to 1 MORNING LINE)

This is a spread race as it will likely come down to who receives the best trip. Undrafted might find the distance a bit short and he'll need some racing luck rallying from the back of the pack, but he certainly has the credentials to win a race like this. His most recent race at a mile looks like a rock-solid prep.

Stacked Deck is more of a reach, to be sure, but he has good races on all three surfaces and has been working swiftly at Woodbine. He earned a 97 Beyer on synthetic two back and on turf four starts ago. Wouldn't those races make him tough here?

***

Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures from 10/20/15 - 10/26/15:

1. DORTMUND - 105 - Big Bear Stakes - 1 Mile - 24Oct15-8SA
2. LOCHTE - 98 - Spider John Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 25Oct15-5GPW
3. BEST BARD - 97 - OC 40k/C - 1 Mile (Turf) - 24Oct15-4WO
3. PULLING G'S - 97 - OC 100k/C -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 25Oct15-3BEL
5. LUBASH - 96 - Mohawk Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 24Oct15-7BEL
6. OM - 95 - Twilight Derby (G2) - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 24Oct15-7SA
7. CROWLEY'S LAW (GB) - 94 - River Memories Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 24Oct15-6WO
7. EMPIRE DREAMS - 94 - Empire Classic Handicap - 1 1/8 Miles - 24Oct15-5BEL
7. WHERE'S THE WIDGET - 94 - Alw 92794N1X - 1 1/16 Miles (Polytrack) - 23Oct15-3WO
10. COPPERPLATE - 93 - Alw 70175N1X - 5 1/2 Furlongs (Polytrack) - 21Oct15-7WO
10. GLENVILLE GARDENS - 93 - Labeeb Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 25Oct15-9WO
10. PALACE - 93 - Hudson Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - 24Oct15-3BEL
13. MOR SPIRIT - 92 - Md Sp Wt 52k - 1 Mile - 23Oct15-4SA
13. PAIN AND MISERY - 92 - OC 25k/C -N - 1 Mile - 25Oct15-8ZIA
13. QUEEQUEG - 92 - Alw 25000s - 6 Furlongs - 24Oct15-7PRX
16. BARUTA (BRZ) - 91 - Senator Ken Maddy Stakes (G3) - About 6 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - 25Oct15-5SA
16. HOBBITS HERO - 91 - Clm 32000(32-28) - 1 Mile (Turf) - 23Oct15-7SA
16. OFFERING PLAN - 91 - English Channel Stakes - 1 Mile (Turf) - 25Oct15-7BEL
16. PROCUREMENT - 91 - OC 80k/C - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 22Oct15-7SA
16. SOUTHERN FREEDOM - 91 - OC 80k/C -N - 1 1/4 Miles (Turf) - 22Oct15-7SA
21. BOLD CONQUEST - 90 - Alw 57723N1X - 1 1/16 Miles - 23Oct15-8KEE
21. COUGAR RIDGE - 90 - Alw 65886N3Y - 1 1/8 Miles - 24Oct15-7KEE
21. INVADING HUMOR - 90 - Ticonderoga Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) - 24Oct15-11BEL
21. KITTEN'S DUMPLINGS - 90 - Little Miss Magic Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles (Turf) - 24Oct15-5GPW
21. SPRINGBOARD - 90 - OC 80k/N3X - 1 1/16 Miles - 22Oct15-3KEE

*Dortmund's lifetime past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

***

Video stakes analyses for the Breeders' Cup races can be found later this week at http://www.drf.com/videos

You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman.

I'll be with Mike Beer in the DRF studios at 2pm ET on Friday and at 10:30AM ET this Saturday for all of your Breeders' Cup live coverage (live.drf.com). We'll have guests from on-site at Keeneland as well.

***

Looking forward to Dan and Mike's Webinar later this morning. Interested to hear Dan's current thoughts on SMOOTH ROLLER with all his inactivity.
Annie

Thanks for listening. You can find the archived webinar here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1YIsnu95m9s

***

Dan,
I keep hearing about your videos, but can't find them. Am I an idiot or is this new page change (which of course I hate) to blame? Why can't IT guys leave well enough alone? They almost had me as a paying subscriber to DRF + and then they took away my classic home page. sigh..................
For what it is worth, in the Juvenile Turf, I like Cymric (a pre-entry) and my crush horse, Isotherm.
TBTA

Try this link:

http://www.drf.com/videos

***

Congrats to Ed for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling event.

We'll go with the Breeders' Cup Classic for this week's exercise. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE BREEDERS' CUP DISTAFF/BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC DAILY DOUBLE IS ALLOWED.

PAST PERFORMANCES FOR THE CLASSIC ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.

SR Vegas and Rick M. have graciously decided to streamline all of the HG rules in order to make them an easier read for everyone...

With so many new people attending Dan's Formblog we thought it would be a good time to update the Handigambling Guidelines and Rules as we go forward in 2014.

Let's remember WHY we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses and why we're betting them the way we are. We are not asking for a novel but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

HANDIGAMBLING:

Please start your post with  HG or HANDIGAMBLING to better recognize and find your entry.

-  You have a mythical $100 to wager in whatever format you choose and that is available for that HG race.
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.

- Post your WAGER and ANALYSIS to the blog WITH YOUR NAME/OR MONIKER AT THE END OF THE POST.  Remember that posts may start as 'anonymous' or an 'alternate name'. You MUST sign yourself at the end (even if it is the same) This enables the scorekeeper to recognize you .

- (1) ONE ENTRY per person for the Handigambling contest. If you have multiple email addresses, use just ONE for contest purposes.  Multiple entries will be cause for disqualification.

- Separate your analysis from the wager and use the horses # in your wager. Just like you would do in a real wager. No horse names.

-In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. Dan reserves the right to approve or deny any entries.

- The winner will receive a "60-Card Quarterly Formulator Past Performance Plan"

As an example :

HG 2014
The speed in this race goes to  horses # 1, 4 ,6 ..Ennie , Meenie, and Mo
Since it's a sprint I don't see any closers catching them.. like # 9 Miney.
I think trainer Groucho with the #6 Mo has the best stats in this condition, route to sprint.. just a gut feeling at large odds ML 20-1

HG wager
50$ Ex box 1-6
total $100

Thanks Dan!

Harpo
---------------------------------

A MORE DETAILED ANALYSIS IS ALWAYS APPRECIATED !
 
REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATER THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A SATURDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL)

AttachmentSize
DORTMUND.pdf652.12 KB
Copy of Formblog MaidofMist 10-24-15.xls.xls17.17 KB
HGCLASSIC.pdf179.86 KB