05/02/2010 2:17PM

Sixty Cents


How much did that contest winner's $100,000 bet on Super Saver affect the Derby winner's payoff? People have guessed everywhere from nothing to two full odds points, but it appears the correct answer is 60 cents.

The chart below shows the final win pools as posted at tvg.com, then repeats them to the right with the $100,000 wager hypothetically removed from the $30.6 million win pool:

The $100,000 increased Super Saver's share of the win pool from 8.97 % to 9.27 %, dropping his odds from 8.36-1 to 8.06-1 (after breakage, from 8.30-1 to 8.00-1.) So it appears that Super Saver would have paid $18.60 rather than $18.00 to win had the bet not been part of the pool. Conversely, had Ice Box finished first rather than 2nd, he would have paid $25.40, but without the bet he would have paid $25.20.

Putting aside the contest bet, let's look at a different version of that chart, with horses ranked in order of favoritism in this unusually-bet Derby that had the highest-priced favorite and lowest-priced longshots in the history of the race:

Given that each entrant would attract 5.00 % of the pool if the money were simply spread equally among them, the bettors effectively said that only one horse was barely twice as likely to win as a random choice and that nobody was only half as likely to win as a random selection. Obviously there's a lot of money being bet on names and numbers on Derby Day, but I still don't get -- and I'm truly not knocking anyone's selections -- how in a pool of this size a horse like Backtalk is 23-1 instead of something more like 53-1.

3:00 pm: Taking a $924 shot at today's $96k double-carryover at Belmont as follows:



6:00 pm: Well, thanks to one of the two gate scratches, I had it twice for $340 each instead of once for the original willpay of $506 but....ick. Spent all day wondering whether the first-leg victory by a neck of a 2-1 "A" over a 38-1 "C" was going to be a blessing (if another B or C won later on), or a curse (if I ran the table with five A's).

Lucky me, I ran the table with five A's.

So let's see: $924 in...$680 for the two 6-of-6's..$292.60 for 38 consos (16 of them twice, six of them in the finale once) at $7.70 each...total of $972.60. Looks like I hit the pick-6 twice and made $48.60!

JPC More than 1 year ago
Always enjoy following your P6 plays. Are you going to post them today for Churchill? Also, Ticketmaker needs an option for all A/B to be in line with your P6 approach. That would be a good enhancement.
Wayne80 More than 1 year ago
fast and firm at CD, good luck to all.
fastjoey More than 1 year ago
I just want to say DRF WEEKEND is a tremendous thing, and your writers have done great work on this year's Triple Crown trail. I pretty much had dumped buying the DRF, but given the incredible resources your writers from all the tracks have poured into DRF WEEKEND, I now fork over the $7 with avid anticipation.
Walt P. More than 1 year ago
When I was comparing Day to Borel, I was looking at some of the riders I remember being at Churchill back in 1993: Names like J. Otto Thorwarth, Peter Outzs, Dana Whitney, Rodney Prescott, Dean Sarvis and others like them who were riding at Churchill at the time Day was a regular, and most (if not all) of those jockeys (who are still active) are now riding at lower-run circuits. Churchill's purse index (especially in years they had the Breeders' Cup) in the pre-simulcasting days was often quite inflated by the Derby week stakes and other things, as the quality otherwise was much lower. It was only after simulcasting as we know it today began in earnest where, coupled with Churchill's agressive marketing did quality and other things rise at CD.
Tom D. More than 1 year ago
Made my plane reservations for Saratoga this morning. It can't come soon enough.
J.V.R. More than 1 year ago
to George Quinn again its not a question if he's the best rider or not but no rider you mentioned could have possibly ridden better then he did on those 3 winners in the derby there is no debating that even Todd Pletcher paid him a great compliment after the race, and remember he uses John Velazquez and other great riders too.
RichP More than 1 year ago
I wasn't comparing the ability of Day and Borel. My point was that they both understood the pecularity of the CD race track. Day used the same type of ride Borel does to win at Churchill. You have to be inside on the turns unless you have a monster. Given that this derby field was so evenly matched, it's not a suprise that Borel won. I've also seen him not do so well at Belmont because de doen't rdie many races there and a raill skimming ride gets you nowhere at Belmont. Many Jocks get lost in that final turn and move too soon or too late.
tony More than 1 year ago
waquoit no calvin would not have won on Lucky . No one could have won on the trip she got . She seems to be the bad luck horse . Im kind of sick of losing money on her . Now watch her win the preakness
C More than 1 year ago
Walt, That's pretty debatable. I seem to recall Sellers, Romero, Albarado, AND Borel riding at Churchill pretty frequently during Day's time. Nowadays, it's mainly Borel, Leparoux, Bejarano, and Albarado. Of course, one could mention several other decent riders for both generations.
George Quinn More than 1 year ago
Hey Steve, I think my comments about Calvin Borel were a bit misunderstood by the blogosphere here at DRF.COM The point I was trying to make is that the jockey colony that bounces from Gulfstream to Keeneland to Saratoga with stops at Belmont and Churchill along the way cannot be seperated by much. If anyone thinks Calvin Borel is better than Johnny V. or Garret Gomez, than I give up. He does have talent and maybe is a little more fearless than most. But to suggest that Calvin Borel can carry a horse across the wire, is just ridiculous. Yes he is one tough veteran. But is he better than Ramon Dominguez? Heck no. So let us not get carried away with the 3 wins in 4 years. It is a nice story but I say much of that was what was underneath him. You 100% have to have the horse in this business. And I still say jockeys at this level are much like pro golfers. Any one can win on any given day. George in Tampa