Showdown at Delaware, Virginia Derby

P.Ensign , yeah but I ain't got the onions to bet 1 g on a pic-5 . LOL. Thats Annie's department. At least I knew ahead of time I needed 23 horses to feel about 90% safe. Uncle Steve T. hit it with a $512 ticket with 20 horses. DR. Derango was on fire today. Maybe someone hit it IRL. My single ran second and made a nice Ex & Tri . That was all I needed like I said in the original post. I had a couple of other decent ex & tris that didn't need a lot of horses. & 3 good placers at medium to long odds. I was a little shy on top pick winners though. LOL. DMR ain't no pic-nic. One time I bet a $20 1x1x1 pic-3 there & hit the 1st two legs with $12 & $30 horses. The horse in the third was the program favorite at like 3-1. Easy so & so was his name. He opened up at 1-9 eventually went up to 1-5 . My brother told me I should hedge the ticket a little but I said ,"DON'T MAKE ME LAUGH this horse ain't gonna lose to these bums". Wrong !! I thought I was en fuego. LOL.

P. Ensign , you graciously forgot to mention that my $12 ticket didn't have a single winner on it. Which means that after I narrowed it to about 23 contenders I picked 10 from the pool and couldn't scrape up a winner from 5 tries. I left all 5 winners in the lucky 13 that got jettisoned .LOL. Seems like monkeys should be able to do better than that ,right? LOL.

You are going to get some frontrunning longshots the first week at Del Mar as a lot of the riders go paranoid about the surface. Happens every year. Now you just have to figure out who that is going to be... I would look for a PVal longshot, he doesn't care if they are running on peanut butter, he's going to the front.

Trying to start off the Del Mar with a bang. Trying the Pick 5 today with the following: R1: 1-4-6 *1:Eye On Jacob-hard to go against Baffert/Rosario *4:Times Gone By-O’Neill/Bejarano (32% at DMR, thanks Steve T for the stats), 1 for 1 on DMR *6:Kettle Corn- 2:1-1-0 over AW (although at Arlington), positive trainer switch R2: 8-5 *8-Battle School-O’Neill/Bejarano, drops in class *5-Red Scare-drawing a line through last, trying blinkers for first time, the other speed with the #8 R3: 7-1-5 *7-Sir Ed-O’Neill/Bejarano, dropping in class *1-Devour-the other O’Neill entry, gets the rail *5-Stu’s Gone Wild-dueled in last, still held 3rd, I see the 3 and 4 entering a speed duel, as long as PVal can rate Stu’s Gone Wild, would be the best “speed” selection in here (along with the above 7) R4: 8-3-2-7-10-4-5-1 *pretty much buying this race, although if I had to go small here, would pick the 8, 3, and 10. Maiden races aren’t my forte, so I’d rather be safe. R5: 7-8-9-10 *Could hit the ALL button here as well, but budget doesn’t allow  *7:Nashiller-(thanks again Steve T for the stats) Gaines/Blanc @ DMR (60%), sprint to route (26%) *8-Correspondent-any of his first 3 would be competitive with this group *10-Simply Carina-like the #8, very competitive in previous efforts, although 0 for 8 concerns me, but gets positive jockey switch to Rosario *9-Born Lucky- Machowski 30% with turf, 3rd off layoff, always like Gomez Ticket is $288 (1,4,6/8,5/7,1,5/8,3,2,7,10,4,5,1/7,8,9,10) Gotta love opening days, like starting fresh!!!!

The first day at Del Mar is like walking over a cliff... Del Mar – Wednesday (07-20-2011) Race 1 – Kettle Corn, Price, Eye on Jacob DD: Galleta Monstruo Race 2 – Battle School, Red Scare, Isle of Prado DD: King Ledley Race 3 – Stu’s Gone Wild, Sir Ed, Devour DD: Classy Lion Race 4 – Cha Cha Latte, Sweet Nothings, Weemissfrankie DD: Cavalletta Race 5 – Correspondent, Mrs Mayor, Simply Carina DD: Last Sting Race 6 – Domonation, Get My Fix, Ominous Thomas DD: E Z Led Race 7 – Desperate Measures, Judge Joan, Queenie Marini DD: You Can Dream Race 8 – Temple’s Door, Mr. Commons, Akkadian DD: Burns Race 9 – Indy Ride, North Fork, Whirling Thunder DD: Pico Pico Race 10 – Don’t Stop Riding, Del Mar Dude, Fairfax Lion DD: Mean Valentine

Here are the PolyPed Sire scores for the main track races at Del Mar today. An asterisk indicates there is a sample size of less than 5, and a "new" indicates a freshman sire. Like I say every year, use the stats, don't let them use you: Race 1 #1 Eye on Jacob (12) #2 Galleta Monstruo (69) #3 Balboa Bay (50) #4 Times Gone By (41) #5 Big Business (50) #6 Kettle Corn (80) #7 Price (78) #8 Arcodoro (41) Race 3 #1 Devour (53) #2 Unbridled Score (31) #3 Warren’s Gus (40) #4 Giuseppe G (28) #5 Stu’s Gone Wild (100*) #6 Regroup (42) #7 Sir Ed (53) #8 Classy Lion (53) Race 4 #1 Mia Isabel (56) #2 Smoke Train (41) #3 Cavalletta (100*) #4 Lady Fairbanks (61) #5 Love My Way (New) #6 Punch Drunk (New) #7 Weemissfrankie (New) #8 Sweet Nothings (75) #9 Act Sweet (0*) #10 Cha Cha Latte (New) Race 6 #1 Back at You (56) #2 Domonation (57) #3 Me Salty (59) #4 Memphis Mobster (39) #5 Jerry’s Fever (33) #6 Get My Fix (64) #7 Mentidoso (59) #8 EZ Led (67) #9 Ominous Thomas (64) #10 Scratched #11 Fire in Excess (69) Race 7 #1 Queenie Marini (49) #2 Money Lover (49) #3 Desperate Measures (140) #4 Cayanna (50) #5 Judge Joan (83) #6 Sugar Spike (40) #7 You Can Dream (38) #8 Jade Taylor (0*) #9 Fullbridled’s Sis (0) Race 9 #1 Job Boss (68) #2 Indy Ride (80) #3 Courtside Action (56) #4 Whirling Thunder (68) #5 Deputiformer (54) #6 Pico Pico (71) #7 Mr. Saturdaynight (36) #8 Gilligan (36) #9 Racketeer (29) #10 North Fork (40) Race 10 #1 Mean Valentine (86) #2 Omega Storm (33) #3 Fairfax Lion (58) #4 You Little Devil (20) #5 Gahnzo Bob (0) #6 Scratched #7 Iammakingapoint (New) #8 Cabo San Lucas (43) #9 Warren’s Tiger (New) #10 Ignited (40) #11 Let Me Finish (New) #12 Don’t Stop Riding (80) #13 Del Mar Dude (73)

DMR, 6th (11),1,2) might be able to bet them all 7th (4) 7) 8th (2,3,8) 10th (9) 12) I think I'll check out my pond and then take a nap before the races Good luck everyone.

Tony P, Here is the URL to the Disabled List: https://spreadsheets.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ak-hpVmgvXrhcE9ERlNXQUVaX3pja1J6dmNmNUFPZEE&hl=en_US#gid=0

Meathead01, You know I'm not a pic-player normally but since Annie has been hitting so many pic-5s I figure it must be easier than I thought. LOL. Just kiddin' Annie . You know I have a lot of respect for your comprehensive approach to cappin' . You plan your work & work your plan. Anyway like I told MikeA last week DMR ain't my favorite track but I'll take a stab at filling in the pic-5 in Annie's place for a few bucks. Nothing major. I guess for .50 it makes it cheap to take a flyer. Race#1 #1 Eye on Jake > calls Escena mommy, obviously has had some problems but looks like a contender with these. # 4 Times Gone By > aptly named horse has seen better days. Mandella finally gave up and let him go. He's always had some talent to go with whatever his physical problems are. He likes it at the beach on turf or main. With 3 legs he can probably act for 40,000. He's faced the better ones. #7 Price > Zucker is not having a good year. He's slightly better than an 0fer trainer though. He isn't likely to stay 0fer all year. When he does pop one its usually between 5/10 -1. He's finished in front of Jake in a sprint. He's not impossible. Zucker has frustrated me winning with ones like this in the past. He's hard to pigeon hole even when he has stats that don't say 0.00. I actually wish Zucker wasn't in my race. That seems like a craZy thing to say about a guy thats 0fer this year but he's been around forever . He ain't an 0fer trainer. He's a sneaky Zucker. LOL. When he does win one his guys tend to whoop it up on the way to the windows. They tend to bet their bums on just the right days in my memory bank. #5 Big business . 3yr old has faced some decent horses. No disgrace to take some time breaking mdn vs those. He appears up against it here buttZ... the older ones all have their problems ? I'm usung 1/4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Race #2 #2 Isle of Prado> can spring a surprise . He broke mdn vs straight mdns and probably has a hidden class advantage against these bums. Worth a shot at a price #1 One Nation > is not yet a completely proven loser. #5 Red Scare > tries open co. 1st time . Thats not the kiss of death for a cal-bred like it is in some other jurisdictions. There are actually cal-breds that can run. He's not a proven loser yet. #3 King Ledley has steadily worked his way down to this level . His weak connects and fact he's only hit the ex once in two years make him tough to want to bet although he does look like this is a rough fit for him. He's got a pile of dough in his bank earned a long time ago. I'm not even going to look up where and when because it was so long ago. I'm singling #2 IsleO'Prado the 12 -1-0-0 guy. My pic-5 will die or seperate me right here. _______________________________________________________________________________ Race #3 #1 Devour >is the logical favorite . He's the one to beat and he looks beatable to me. #4 Joey G. > is a curcuit switching class dropper . The drop may well be bigger than it appears and he's in a spot to spring a surpriZe . Wave him Bye- Bye ? #5 Stu's > got speed & Patrick could ruin things for Joe G . I'll be optomistic and say Joe's just faster . # 7 Eddie > would not be impossible for Oneal/Bejarano. This is a logical spot for him. #8 Classy Lion > Has won and was claimed at this level. Bacorn took him . Herb is not much of a trainer. He probably got tricked. He's not hopeless but I can skip him. #4 & #1 Joey & Devour ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Race #4 #1 Mia Isabel > Got bet 1st out . Given improvement the # might not be good enough if #10 gets improvement. Trainer is 0/9 with 2nd timers which is dismal given that Par is about 20%, of course he might be 1/10 after today. #10 Cha Cha Latte > Walsh has always been a tri /board trainer for me. she's 5/15 with 2nd timers and she produced a # that given improvement would make her tough to beat. She didn't get bet 1st out which means she's NOT a coin flip. She is however a contender. # 8 Sweet nothings > Got bet to favorite status first out. Showed speed and stopped . Holly is 19/68 with 2nd timers . She needs more than 5 lengths improvement to contend not impossible but not with my money. #7 Weemissfrankie > has a steady string of improving works topped by 3 goodies in a row. Eurton is not the best with 1sters but this one looks best of the 1sters. I wouldn't be surprised by a nice effort. Only one gate work. this might be just that. #3 Cavelletta > missed a work in the middle there but has 3 gates. Nothing spectacular in there but probably the 2nd best 1ster at the moment. #1 & #10 ________________________________________________________________________________ Race #5 #2 last Sting> Runs her race wherever she goes. Her race probably ain't gonna be good enough buttZ... it might be good enough to get in the mix underneath. # 6 Honey's PriZe > Kitchingman has always been one of my pets. His real niche is with mdn babies .Something of a poormans wes ward. He can probably take a mdn race this meet. If he doesn't he'll track switch them to the fair and pop. 120,000 is a high dollar horse for him . Turf is not his forte. The fact he's coming back turf with a horse that showed good 2yr old promise has me intrigued. Is he form darkening for later or is he trying to pull something off ? Thats the question. I'm inclined to believe he's form muddling but I won't leave him off. #8 Correspondent > is very logical . Bejarano got to know him last time. He should get a good stalking trip & have every chance to run them down. # 9 Born Lucky > Stretcher could throw a wrench in Carina's plans. GomeZ isn't much for pressing hard though so he might not push. If he doesn't then the fader #10 Simply Carina would have yet another good chance to get a victory. She calls Astra Mommy and it seems right that she should break her mdn eventually. Perhaps today. I'll go 3 deep with 6 ,8 ,10 thats 2x1x2x2x3 =$12 . IMO there are 23 horses that might win the 1st 5 races and I only have 10 . Pic-5s are hard . I don't know why people like to play them ???? On top of that my single is a little precarious. Thats why I avoid long horiZontals. DDs are one thing but beyond that they just make you wait to long to find out if you won. To much suspense for my taste. I'll play the $12 because my single might be the seperater in the sequence. I know a smart pic player that thought that would spread more in the other legs but I ain't smart enough to dump much into pic 5s. Since I'm in pic -mode though I'll play pic-3s 4x1x1 with Joe G singled in the 3rd & 1x1x5 in the second pic-3 . Thats it for pics. I think I might have one later that I like but I can't remember who right now. I'll go back to find out and put it up tomorrow. Singling IOP & JoeyG is slightly ambitious but I'll be betting both of them & if the board is right for them I might step it up. If either of them run 1st or 2nd I'll probably be making money tomorrow. I'm not recommending anyone take these pics seriously. I only put them up because Meathead specifically asked me too. My confidence level at DMR is slightly less than it is most places. Good luck to the formbloggers on opening day. Be glad you aren't going to be sardine canned in the place. It is possible to get shut out there when you are 2nd in line and there is 4 minutes to post on opening day. DMR on opening day is a line thing.15 minutes out is cutting it close.

Dan, Keep up the great work at DRF - your handicapping expertise in maiden races is top notch! Have you heard anything concerning the outcome of the recent surgery that Dialed In was having done to remove the bone chip in his right knee? Jim

Dan/Anyone: Although it is still too early to tell I would say that right now Blind Luck has to be near the top of the list regarding Horse of the Year. If she beats the boys once, which looks quite possible, she could do it. If she wins HOY it would be three straight years with a female HOY. Has this ever happened before?

Happy and hot Tuesday. Steve T. Just kidding about Chantal. She was on the beach at Del Mar. She was working on her tan for Mikey. Still lookig for a race for the next HG contest. Hot weather is standing in the way. Whackymacky Out!!!

I have made up a couple of lists to help the non-SoCal types navigate the trainer waters at Del Mar. The first is the "25 Club" - all of a trainer's stats that are 25% or above, and it looks like this: AVILA, A.C. 25% - Long Layoffs BAFFERT, Bob (31%) 67% - Team with Joel Rosario at Del Mar (9) 43% - Team with Rafael Bejarano at Hollywood (23) 39% - Team with Joel Rosario at Hollywood (31) 37% - Team with Joel Rosario overall (67) 35% - Team with Rafael Bejarano overall (81) 34% - Team with Martin Garcia at Hollywood (151) 33% - Team with Alonso Quinonez at Hollywood (9) 31% - Team with Mike Smith overall (29) 30% - Team with Alonso Quinonez overall (10) 30% - Allowances (216) 29% - Team with Martin Garcia overall (384) 28% - Route to Sprint (57) 27% - Two Year Olds (81) 27% - Short Layoffs (232) 27% - Sprints (484) 26% - Synthetics (444) 26% - Won Last Start (193) 25% - Second Off Long Layoff (97) BELVOIR, Vann 25% - Won Last Start 25% - Allowances BLINCOE, Thomas 25% - Long Layoffs (8) BONDE, Jeff 67% - Team with Joel Rosario overall (6) 35% - Graded Stakes (26) CALLAGHAN, Simon 46% - Team with Joel Rosario overall (24) 46% - Team with Joel Rosario at Hollywood (13) 30% - Claiming (10) The other one is a listing of the turf stats for all SoCal trainers and looks like this: 33% LITT, Joshua (3) 32% MOREY, William (114) 30% MACHOWSKY, Michael (57) 30% SPAWR, Bill (54) 27% ELLIS, Ron (60) 25% SWYAK, Alex (8) 23% BERNSTEIN, David (13) 22% CALLAGHAN, Simon (79) 21% JONES, Martin (121) 21% CERIN, Vladimir (84) 20% SADLER, John (271) 20% PROCTOR, Thomas (319) 20% BONDE, Jeff (51) 19% MITCHELL, Mike (180) 19% GAINES, Carla (104) 19% MULLINS, Jeff (110) 19% HOLLENDORFER, Jerry (388) 19% BONDE, Jeff (52) 18% SHIRREFFS, John (77) 18% PUYPE, Mike (90) 18% MIYADI, Steven (99) 17% WARREN, Donald (69) 17% PALMA, Hector (35) Laura has graciously agreed to post them on her IM site to avoid clogging up the blog.

Dan you use to have a disabled list that told why the horse was on the dl, do you still post this somewhere or how can I get his info?

Hello to all Form Bloggers... I have selected the race for the next HG contest: HG 243 will be one of my Dad's favorite races on opening day at Saratoga. Friday July 22nd 2011 Race #9 The Schuylerville Stakes 6 Furlongs l Fillies l 2 Year Olds l G3 STAKES l Purse $100,000 Good Luck To All!!! Whackymacky Out!!!

If the opening day card is and indication.......Saratoga will have an excellent meet this year. Mike A

Correction The firster out of Clement's barn that I saw wire the field yesterday was Primadona, and not Primadonna as I think I typed yesterday. Apologies.

DEL MAR WINNER'S RUNNING STYLE (2010/2009/2008) Main Track Sprints 2010 - Front 41%, Stalk 28%, Close 30% 2009 - Front 41%, Stalk 27%, Close 33% 2008 - Front 35%, Stalk 22%, Close 43% Main Track Routes 2010 - Front 31%, Stalk 18%, Close 51% 2009 - Front 16%, Stalk 32%, Close 52% 2008 - Front 35%, Stalk 23%, Close 42% Turf Sprints 2010 - Front 43%, Stalk 21%, Close 36% 2009 - Front 27%, Stalk 33%, Close 40% 2008 - Front 47%, Stalk 40%, Close 13% Turf Routes 2010 - Front 32%, Stalk 34%, Close 34% 2009 - Front 34%, Stalk 19%, Close 47% 2008 - Front 35%, Stalk 35%, Close 30%

Here are the post position stats for 2009 and 2010 for Del Mar Main Track Sprints (2010/2009) 1 - 15.5%/11.9% 2 - 10.1%/9.7% 3 - 10.8%/13.0% 4 - 10.8%/13.0% 5 - 11.7%/14.2% 6 - 13.2%/15.7% 7 - 12.9%/6.3% 8 - 13.7%/9.0% 9 - 9.6%/6.9% 10 - 4.3%/10.0% 11 - 3.8%/9.8% 12 - 33.3%/8.3% Main Track Routes (2010/2009) 1 - 12.8%/9.2% 2 - 12.8%/10.8% 3 - 10.3%/6.2% 4 - 15.4%/10.8% 5 - 10.3%/15.4% 6 - 16.7%/11.3% 7 - 21.7%/7.5% 8 - 0.0%/25.6% 9 - 18.2%/23.1% 10 - 16.7%/12.5% 11 - 0.0%/12.5% 12 - 50.0%/0.0% Turf Sprints (2010/2009) 1 - 7.1%/6.3% 2 - 14.3%/6.3% 3 - 21.4%/25.0% 4 - 7.1%/25.0% 5 - 14.3%/6.3% 6 - 25.0%/7.1% 7 - 18.2%/16.7% 8 - 0.0%/28.6% Turf Routes (2010/2009) 1 - 8.5%/16.2% 2 - 13.6%/7.4% 3 - 16.9%/11.8% 4 - 8.5%/13.2% 5 - 16.9%/8.8% 6 - 17.2%/15.6% 7 - 13.5%/19.0% 8 - 11.8%/6.1% 9 - 4.8%/10.8% 10 - 0.0%/4.8%

Here are the top PolyTrack sires from 2007-2010. These are a huge deal and a great way to take down some serious pays, especially in the maiden ranks. The scores are based on the percentage of winners and ITM finishes for the sire. 80+ is an "A" grade, 60-79 is a "B" grade. 143 Concorde's Tune 111 Vicar 110 Yankee Gentleman 108 Proud Citizen 100 Arch 100 The Cliff's Edge 96 Unbridled's Song 92 Stormy Jack 90 Pioneering 89 Birdonthewire 87 Explicit 86 Aldebaran 86 Cape Town 86 Pure Precision 83 Chief Seattle 83 Gentleman 83 Successful Appeal 82 Distorted Humor 82 Black Minnaloushe 82 Carson City 81 Fusaichi Pegasus 80 Redattore 80 Sweetsouthernsaint 79 Najran 78 Candy Ride 78 Runaway Groom 78 Forest Camp 78 Street Cry 78 Put it Back 77 Tale of the Cat 75 Avenue of Flags 75 Dumaani 75 Purge The ideal set up is a maiden claimer who is like 0/5 coming from Hollywood who has a PolyPed sire and suddenly starts working faster at Del Mar.

Steve T, Thanks again for mucho info for me to copy and paste. Are you still keeping the poly/ped sire list? With apologies to Curt V, I believe you recenlty said the Slewsters do not like it. Meathead, hahaha.....now I know someone reads what I post! :) Even though that was not very polite, I couldn't resist. VQ, Thanks for the google idea. When it comes to horse racing stuff, I don't even think to google stuff because we have so many helpful experts who not only explain it, they detail how they apply it too. I'm so happy you take your ettiquette cues from the experts you listed. That is quite a variety. Back in the dark ages before email, texting, aim chatting, etc.......I was given a book called "Charlotte Ford's Book of Modern Manners" as a wedding shower gift. It was from my former Mother In Law, so what does that tell you? "Hori unitict"- I think captcha is tempting me to say something dirty again.

Here are The stats Steve T mentioned above, PLUS DelMar stats from the 2010 meet. Also listed are the Polytrack sires. http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/STATS.html Laura

Here are the consolidated jockey statistics for 2008/2009/2010: 2008-2010 MAIN TRACK SPRINTS (Win/ITM) ATKINSON, Paul – 0%/7% BAZE, Tyler – 10%/30% BEJARANO, Rafael – 22%/62% BLANC, Brice – 9%/33% DELGADILLO, Agapito – 2%/8% ESPINOZA, Victor – 12%/40% FLORES, David – 9%/25% GARCIA, Martin – 9%/36% GOMEZ, Garrett – 16%/49% JOHN, Kerwin – 0%/24% MEDINA, Luis – 6%/12% PEDROZA, Martin – 11%/31% QUINONEZ, Alonso – 11%/34% ROSARIO, Joel – 20%/50% SANTIAGO-REYES, Christian – 11%/39% SCOTT, Joy – 0%/10% SMITH, Mike – 14%/34% STRA, Kayla – 0%/14% TALAMO, Joe – 11%/32% VALENZUELA, Patrick – 16%/44% 2008-2010 MAIN TRACK ROUTES (Win/ITM) ATKINSON, Paul – 5%/20% BAZE, Tyler – 15%/40% BEJARANO, Rafael – 21%/56% BLANC, Brice – 14%/31% DELGADILLO, Agapito – 13%/27% ESPINOZA, Victor – 11%/36% FLORES, David – 12%/35% GARCIA, Martin – 14%/38% GOMEZ, Garrett – 24%/52% JOHN, Kerwin – 0%/40% MEDINA, Luis – 33%/33% PEDROZA, Martin – 9%/38% QUINONEZ, Alonso – 12%/34% ROSARIO, Joel – 21%/51% SANTIAGO-REYES, Christian – 13%/44% SCOTT, Joy – 0%/0% SMITH, Mike – 18%/24% STRA, Kayla – 0%/20% TALAMO, Joe – 15%/48% VALENZUELA, Patrick – 14%/36% 2008-2010 TURF SPRINTS (Win/ITM) ATKINSON, Paul – 0%/0% BAZE. Tyler – 0%/29% BEJARANO, Rafael – 40%/67% BLANC, Brice – 17%/50% DELGADILLO, Agapito – 0%/0% ESPINOZA, Victor – 23%/41% FLORES, David – 6%/38% GARCIA, Martin – 6%/56% GOMEZ, Garrett – 31%/56% JOHN, Kerwin – NR MEDINA, Luis – NR PEDROZA, Martin – 0%/31% QUINONEZ, Alonso – 11%/22% ROSARIO, Joel – 11%/44% SANTIAGO-REYES, Christian – 20%/40% SCOTT, Joy – NR SMITH, Mike – 16%/47% STRA, Kayla – NR TALAMO, Joe – 35%/65% VALENZUELA, Patrick – 14%/43% 2008-2010 TURF ROUTES (Win/ITM) ATKINSON, Paul – 0%/0% BAZE. Tyler – 5%/36% BEJARANO, Rafael – 15%/50% BLANC, Brice – 8%/40% DELGADILLO, Agapito – 50%/100% ESPINOZA, Victor – 13%/43% FLORES, David – 16%/34% GARCIA, Martin – 15%/39% GOMEZ, Garrett – 23%/46% JOHN, Kerwin – 0%/0% MEDINA, Luis – 0%/0% PEDROZA, Martin – 5%/21% QUINONEZ, Alonso – 5%/28% ROSARIO, Joel – 14%/52% SANTIAGO-REYES, Christian – 20%/33% SCOTT, Joy – 0%/0% SMITH, Mike – 9%/39% STRA, Kayla – NR TALAMO, Joe – 9%/32% VALENZUELA, Patrick – 14%/24%

Mike A and PGM, Thank you so much for your explanations. I think I understand track variants a bit, now we'll see how I apply the knowlege. BSB, Gentle? As gentle as a baseball bat! knm, Nah, you are not missing that much. I just have a bee in my bonnet over the whole Life at Ten debacle. Whenever I see some BS article that tries to excuse what happened to that poor horse and the bettors who had their hard earned money on her, it makes me see red. You should see the comment I wrote to some article by a guy whose last name was Ehalt. He claimed to be a 40 year expert writer and watcher of horseracing. I was about as gentle as BSB on that one. Tinky even appreciated my comments! HAH! Speaking of LAT, I nearly puked my lunch when either Matt Carothers or Ken Rudolf (I can't remember which of the two said it, but they are both idiots in my opinion) commented that LAT was "rounding back into form" after the drubbing she received at the hands of Blind Luck and Harve de Grace. Who do they think they are kidding?????? Who hires these incompetents???????? Also, does anyone else think that poor Friesian Fire should be retired? He came in last in the Salvatore Mile at Monmouth and last again this weekend in whichever race he ran in. (sorry the memory is going) The horse totally spit the bit in both races after being either on the lead or close to it into the far turn. This weekend, after FF spit the bit and had plummeted quickly to last place, I counted at least 10 strokes of the whip from the jock. If I had been that horse's owner, I can guarantee that jock would have felt exactly the same from me directly in front of the grandstand. Calvin Borel after the BC Marathon would have looked calm compared to what I would have been like if FF was my horse. As much as I am a fan of this game, it has been really hard to justify lately.

Dan, Just watched your and Mike Beer's recap races and I gotta tell you, you guys are getting very, very good. In fact I think I look forward to your weekend race videos and the recaps more than anything else on DRF. I think the one thing that people really like about you guys is that you guys really do like horse racing, and that you follow your pieces with a trip to the windows. The discussions are great and on target, you guys have very different styles and you have been damned accurate along the way. You have always been polished, Mike? not so much early on, but boy has he come a long ways from that early deer in the headlights look. He now seems comfortable and does a nice job in breaking down how they won and whether it was a tough trip or a set up and his personality is starting to come through - loved the look he gave you when you asked whether Ultra Blend could play with Switch at 7 furlongs. Why exactly aren't you guys showing up on ESPN and the like? I guess Mutton Chops, Hammering Hank and Kenny Mayne make for good theater, but my TV has suffered some major damage over the years from me throwing crap when those morons start talking. I guess that's the other thing - I would go with you guys to the races any day, I can't think of another horse media type I can say that about. You are a man of many talents Dan Illman!

Readers, If you're looking for some extra dollars for Del Mar or Saratoga, here's an angle that you can exploit at Arlington Park. That dangerous heat wave has parked itself over my city, and as of this post's time stamp the heat index is over one hundred degrees. Well, over at Arlington Park, the hot/humid conditions along with a dry spell have left the turf course parched. It's firm, hard and dry. These conditions make the course a potential carousel. So take a look at their turf courses and look hard for speed/frontrunners. Here's some good clues. 1) Speed horses on paper or by pace figures. 2) Horses who did well at Hawthorne's Fall 2010 meet, when unseasonably warm and dry conditions prevailed for nearly all of the meet's turf races. 3) Horses getting rider switches to riders who do their best work on the front end. E T Baird and Junior Alvarado come to mind here. Randy Meier is a sometimes-overlooked veteran speed rider who also qualifies. Now not every race is going to be a carousel race. I figure there may be some races where all the speed goes crazy fast and there's a pace meltdown. But until it rains, you might have a nice angle to play with at my home oval. Good luck, gang, and stay cool.

BSB, Pa.'s 20% take-out for Exactas is much better than Cali's 23 & changer. What's the difference if your betting simulcasting anyway ? Pa. has no vigorish & you get to lose in comfort. More than I can say about those other flea infected OTB's they got elsewhere. One in Orlando, Fla. you need to wash your hands, BEFORE you get to the bathroom..of cHorse I wash them afterwards for all the nitpickers out there... On the other hand. Sure I remember those cocktail laced tirades you gave Jay before. That was some funny sheet...Did you notice I left out the "Sponge" comment ? You know you're short a few ? Right ? >>LoL>>>>>Why don't you send Jay a DVD of "A Bronx Tale" ? One of my fave movies..*********Remember the Soundtrack ? >So, here it is.........> \\\\\ " If you want something to play with Go & find yourself a toy Baby, my time is too expensive & I'm not a little boy If you are serious Don't play with my heart, it makes me furious BUTTS: If you want me to love you Then Baby, I will, girl, you know I will........... Tell It Like It Is................ Don't be ashamed to let your conscience be your guide..........///// "........... Tell It Like It Is>>1966>.Aaron Neville........... CV..........>>

"I tried to give it to him as gently as I could...........">BSB....... "You really need to clue up on where the bulk of the money that buys YOUR product comes from & start looking to protect them rather than SNOW them Jay.....">BSB... Gentle ? As gentle as a male goat.........LoL.... What you meant was, as gentle, in terms of being allowed to be printed.......You're the best..

Meathead, Sorry, it IS Del Mar, and Del Mar only for 2008/2009/2010. Whacky, No Chantal because she hasn't ridden at Del Mar.

BSB.......I read your piece to JH......good stuff, by the way that was you in the grandstand? Saratoga turf course tidbit.......be mindful of what turf course your horse is running on. Saratoga's main track is 1 1/8 th...like Aqueduct, that doesn't leave alot of room for two turf courses. The Outer course, or Mellon course is 1m and 98ft...the inner 7f and 304 feet......with a stretch length of over 1100 ft that makes for tight turns. Bigger horses will tend to have trouble negotiating those inner turf course turns, often going wide and loosing ground. A good example is the good race mare You Go West Girl. It's how I picked Exclusive Scheme to beat her on the Inner course to the tune of 25-1. So it's important to take notice of which course a horse wins on. The same applies to Belmont, but it isn't as pronounced as both turf courses are large due to the track being 1 1/2m. Now this angle I use year in and year out.....a trainer will purposely put a charge on the course he doesn't like because he needs a race, he runs so so, one because he needs a race and two he doesn't run well on the course, then next time he's entered on the proper course and lots of folks are left scratching there heads wondering how he improved so much. Turf isn't turf and courses aren't courses......you need to see how each performs. Speed will carry on the inner more so than the outer.....that was very pronounced last year, the surprise was the Mellon course also carrying speed, when it tends to play more honest. Mike A

RE: Saratoga (I think) I took my brother to Suffolk Downs for his birthday today. His first time ever at a racetrack. He was kind enough to say he enjoyed it. In the 4th, an MSW 16K at 1 1/16 on the turf, I noticed a firster trained by Clement. The horse is Primadonna, a 3yo bred in Ireland. I think "What is this horse and this trainer doing on a Monday at Suffolk?" Well, winning wire to wire for one thing. Won by 4 1/2 at even money. Is this a prep for Saratoga? Might bear watching, or I might need to learn something from wiser heads. Thanks.

MH01 Sr. Enrico, not to be confused with Mr. Enrico (who can win occasionally) needs CNL downs and 5,000 claimers.......Mike A

Did not see exactly where the track variant discussion originated,but am of the persuasion they are very important and hardly obsolete and are very important in making one's decision.The comment that horses can only run so fast is espscially unfathomable.

Jonah , LOL @ the 7/14 post. Funny stuff. I especially liked "...I do think the term 'genius' is now all but meaningless..." LOL. Now thats the way a baseball guy would stick the needle in ! One game and you're already picking up the customs ! Funny . LOL. "People argue just to win scholars assert" ROFLOL . A research project to prove that ? LOL. Next a research project to prove the Sun rises in the east and sets in the west ? LOL. "I just find the whole field of psychometrics to be dubious at best". Don't feel like the Lone Ranger. A lot of smart people that can memoriZe and recite feel that way. They mistake accumulated/ learned knowledge for the natural ability that leads to asking and/or answering the questions that didn't get asked or looking at things in a different way on their own initiative. They don't recogniZe the difference therefore they find the measurement dubious. Thats a perfectly natural reaction. It isn't the measurement that is flawed. Its the guys doing the measuring you have to watch out for.LOL.

Tbta besides the info given 2 u by MikeA and Pgm google TV 4 additional info. u should find some worthwhile stuff on the subject. Mh01 u crack me up do u really think that SR Vegas or any other female on formblog is going 2 think your a WIMP b/c your wife has 1ST CHOICE when it comes where your going 2 spend your anniversary. roflmao i don't think S00000000000 btw, if some 1 happen 2 think that..WHO CARES as long as the playing field is level i.e at different times u get 2 pk where 2 go and what 2 do. best wishes Ann Landers Dear Abby Paris Hilton

Meathead01 Your wife has her priorities in the right place. Go and enjoy! and have a Happy Anniversary. ...if per chance, the Sunday works out, that would be icing on the cake. Tell her Del Mar sunsets are beautiful and romantic :) But your wife comes first. ----------------------------------- knm ..oh yes, some of us go check out the others blogs. It reminds me how good we have it here, lol! Barabara Livingston's Blog site is a sight for sore eyes, as she really does a superb job with her pictures and writings. -------------------------------------- MH01 ...Senor Enrico? ...que' paso?

Steve T. My girl Chantal Sutherland not on your West Coast list?? With so many race's to pick from for the HG contest, what is a gambler supposed to do?? Whackymacky Out!!!

TBTA, You hit him squarely between the eyes. There was no way he could reply without compounding his original error. You trapped him in his own soapbox. LOL. Well done TBTA. To JH's credit, he will print a viewpoint that opposes his own. When I said I liked most of his writing I was being truthful. When he goes down the road you and I accused him of traveling I feel compelled to disagree in no uncertain terms. He threw two sore subjects for me together in the same piece ! It was a perfect storm.LOL. I did find it strange that most of the other posters besides you and I were in general agreement with him. It was like he was saying ignore the crimes of Nixon because all Presidents do that kind of stuff and they were agreeing ? CurtV , I was trying to be a chupacabra disguised in goats clothing. LOL. Thats the kinder, gentler BSB on display. My disguise didn't fool you ? Remember when he printed the one with all the different medication & alchohol cocktails I would give my horse if I owned one ? LOL. He can recogniZe funny when he sees it. You told me it was the All-Time All-Timer that ever made it past the roundfile. LOL. JH is the one that printed that ! That was when I was going through what you might call my, "Miller Phase" LOL. Thanks for the heads up on the win pool take back there . I thought you told me to stay out of Penn or I might as well make a habit out of Canada . You were talking 3-horse combos they were taxing like they were Trifectors. LOL. Banditos indeed. I assumed the other wagers would ride the TRIs coattails.(wrong) On straight bets they're not much worse than California. captcha >>> ornewe practice >>> Captcha, you got me this time.

Ned Daly I enjoyed your notes on the Saratoga Jumpstart. Sounds like a perfectly lovely day, and I could almost see those beehive hairdos :) Uncle Steve & Uncle Mike Thanks for the Jockey stats and Saratoga notes ...Copy & paste IS a good thing!.

Here are two to add to your watch list for Del Mar. One is an unraced two year old and the other an 0/5 maiden claimer three year old. Both worked in :58.80, hands down the fastest works at Del Mar so far (Caracortado is the next fastest at :59.60) and both have superior PolyPed sires: DANGEROUS DUO (Johar x Sister's Image, Vanlandingham, April 2009) - this was her first work at 5F, she has five works total. GIVEITUPFORTHELADY (Royal Applause x Lady Betambeau, Grand Lodge, April 2008) - has been sloshing around in maiden claimers (5-0-0-1) and her fastest work before Del Mar was a 1:01 flat at Santa Anita. This one could pay a bunch.

Sunday notes... Congrat's to all of the punters that cashed on Saturday! Hg 242. Still nothing from the powers of above. BSB. The $50 ex should bring home over $2500 and change... I missed the chalk DD. LoL. Can these girl's flat out run!! They say the hell with the breeding shed! I need the money 4 retirement. I cannot trust our gov.t!! Good Luck. Wackymacky Out!!!

Dick W , Yeah, Smarty Jones is firing on all cylinders. She's in 2nd right now in the monthly on PH (I'm in about 14,000th ) & I think she's in the top 20 overall .Her only loser today was a backward exacta by a bob !!! I wish she would have lasted with that one because I had it too and could have used it. I probably jinxed her by being on her horse.LOL. She's had the winner in I think 10 of her last 13. Whacky Macky , they don't allow Daily Doubles in the HG and even if they did that first leg ran last or 2nd last & the second leg ran 2nd. LOL. Where are you guys getting this Whacky wins the HG stuff from? I think that means LSD wins the HG with $10 ex and I run 2nd with $60 win . Right LSD & Tencent ? Sorry Whacky but you're gonna have to follow the rules. Repeat after me 3 times. NO HORIZONTALS ALLOWED IN HG !!! Sorry you made that mistake Whacky but the rules are the rules !! LOL.

Is Majestic City another J P's Gusto? Check out the horse profiles and race selections at the main IMT website: http://www.ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/ ****** Annie, you have to watch that (ever) clear liquid with OJ. Next thing you know, you'll be hanging in the Chandelier with SR Vegas. Not that there's anything wrong with that. ****** SR Vegas, Glad you like the Kiddie List! Lots of nice babies are starting to work. Plenty of names for the MKB list. I hope you and Annie are keeping notes. Maybe we'll be the first to find next year's TC winners! Laura CAPTCHA: Her. Ucheck - that remindes me. Last night Steve T. was all over a filly who had never missed the board in 14 lifetime starts, Fund Raiser at 15/1. Bejarano had her 3rd on the inside and gave her a Kenty D. ride. checking her back to 6th. Creative sailor swearing ensued.

MikeA , I played Callingahardten & picked him on PH yesterday. I was thinking with a small step forward he would be good enough maybe & I was longshot hunting for the contest because I've been going backwards this month.LOL I thought he ran good too. Even though he was a little closer than I was planning on. I didn't mind it . I was thinking Desormueax just doesn't want to get blocked. One thing I didn't like is that he made a good run up in there but he never actually made the lead. As you mentioned he stopped on a dime but I told Smarty that he could be dangerous at a little shorter & a little easier company just to keep his roll going. Of course she had Air Support . LOL. One thing that was strange was that CH10 was the 2nd choice to show throughout most of the wagering. I don't know if that held up the last couple of clicks or not but it was unusual considering he was 6th choice in the win pool. Anyway I thought it was funny that we were thinking so alike about that horse. What do you know about that obscure trainer? Evidently he's won a graded stake with limited starters . I think he might be able to win one with CH10 . I figured SG would revert back to normal too . Every horse and his brother was winning off by daylight on off turf tracks at Belmont. Off track BSFs are rarely reliable on turf or dirt and like you've said before they are not really that good on turf to begin with. You can use them a couple of ways though.

Helloo, Marcus Hersch reports that, “Shug McGaughey sounded some awfully optimistic notes this past week about Air Support’s chances in the Grade 2, $600,000 Virginia Derby". I read at least 20 articles on the race and I never saw any such “notes”. So I guess we are just to assume that Horse Racing is the “insiders game” that we have long suspected. Unfortunately, I just laughed so hard I fell and tweeked my hammy. Ouch! Thanks, for the redboard info Marcus. Keep it real, as always! I like a 27, personally.

The New York Post has a write-up on Saratoga, for those who can get it.

Mike A, I pulled this quote from another thread: "when you look at the pp's, horses who went wire to wire on days the track was yielding or the day after when it good get NO points, horses who popped and stopped on firm days, (look at the track variant, it isn't a perfect measure but will be close enough on the turf course no matter the day of the week." What is a track variant and where do I find it? Is there a typical range that indicates something? Thanks for your help.

TBTA , I tried to give it to him as gently as I could. LOL. I like Hovdey okay but I couldn't let him get away with that without comment.

MikeA lol..very good mike VQ

VQ.......I've always preferred the times toilet paper.......much larger sheets, much softer and with lighter print.....easier for retractions. Marcus hersch.......glad you stopped by.....Mike A

Saratoga............. Not the prettiest track I've ever been to, but the picturesque setting puts it near the top. The nearby Lake George region is one of the most serene places around. Folks in NY really have no idea how majestic their own state is, preferring to vacation elsewhere.......with the state of the nation and ridiculous gas prices a trip "upstate" may be just the ticket.......and now the News. I've gotten over my Newsdad or Air Support key......it took a minute, reflections of the race......For the folks out there who for some ungodly reason thought Banned wasn't that good.....look again. For those who thought Street Game was "all that" after a dominant race on an "off" turf course......Off turf and sloppy tracks are the same......I would never hang my hat on an "over the top" performance on either. Callingahardten.....I thought this one had potential after beating some tough older horses at CD's.....it's an ability I give extra points to, it's why I liked Street Game in the Hill Prince, well that and the fact the horse he had to beat (Air Support) is no miler. I put him in the exactas......he was very competitive for about 1 1/16th, coming to the leaders after a mile, of course the race was a 1 1/4m......He came up 3/16ths short. Does this mean he's not good enough to be competitive with these? No...it means he is not competitive at the distance.......there were some good horses behind him. Unfortunately the cat's out of the bag...... Congrats to Blind Luck and her connections and all the other CA horses who won away from home.......this is disturbing on two fronts....one.... how bad are horses becoming that the CA nags can win and two.....It's a shame they can't have purses in CA worth staying home for.....Just kidding Steve. For every wheelbarrow they need to haul the money back to CA, they'll be needing a truck to bring it back. LOL!! What was I saying??? oh yeah Saratoga.......Last year I wrote to watch R. Violette, George Weaver, Kirian McLaughlin, and Bruce Levine up at the Spa.....they all had very good meets with average win payoffs of 18.40, 10.30, 11.80 and 14.20 respectively.....given the amount of starters they had it was a good meet for all of them....especially Violette. All of those trainers have been fairly quiet at Belmont.......a good sign for a repeat of last year, but a tell tale sign.......running horses to get them ready I haven't seen as much from all but George Weaver. I'm expecting him to have a very good meet as I said before. There are a couple of lesser known trainers who always seem to put one or two biggies over at the spa year in year out....two of the better ones are Rodrigo Ubilio and J. Toscano. I've been watching Ubilio closely theses last few weeks......I expect him to put one or two over for sure, especially on the grass course....of course. It's also a good idea to pair trainers and owners as owners love to win at the spa...even the cheaper races, prestige and all that. One really good combo, for horses that pay decent on the turf is Seth Benzel and Melnyck racing stable. They killed on the turf course last year and I see a similar pattern as to how he raced his horses at Belmont this year preceding the spa meet. Getting started seeing patterns of trainers isn't as hard as you may think......how many times have you said to yourself "what the hell is the trainers thinking!! this horse doesn't belong in here, wrong distance, wrong company....etc....etc... and yadda yadda yadda".....no wonder he never wins.....yeah and I'm sure he couldn't do your job either, but you certainly can't do his and they aren't that stupid.....if a horse isn't where he belongs he's "out for air" That's right folks, they aren't supposed to win.....but they will when they are ready and you need to find out when. So instead of cursing the "idiot" look at what he's doing.......Like Can't Refuse, Catch a Penny K and Loyal Shadow it may just put you onto a 50-1 shot. Another way to look at future races is by the performance of a trainer in the meet prior......if they normally are near the top of the rankings at any given meet and all of a sudden aren't doing anything WATCH!!!! Bill Mott did nothing in Florida....he's very hot know and you can bet it was by design. Good horsemen are always good horsemen, before you chuck them in the trash heap of the has been better look at his stock and evaluate...you may be the has been. Mike A

Some quick notes on the Saratoga Jumpstart Went up to watch the steeplechasers. 90+ degrees, bright sun, some breeze. Talk about your conservation of capital opportunities! Free parking, free admission, free seats in the Clubhouse, free tours of the backside, $2 draft beers with the proceeds going to charity, and no wagering allowed! Had a drink from the Big Red Spring. I found it refreshing and effervescent. I don't know what all the fuss is about. Found some shade under an unused lemonade stand. Did NOT remind me of huddling in an abandoned Coca Cola stand listening to Joan Baez in the rain on the Friday night at Woodstock. Avoided my NYRA nemesis, but did see Bill Heller. Did not tell him how I slagged him on my blog. Steeplechase owners have their own sense of style. Un-ironic usage of the beehive hairdo, seersucker suits with no socks, and that Tidewater accent. Looking forward to at least two return trips. Thnaks in advance to Laura and Mike A.

Bloggers, For a good read on the value of accurate, timely, and thorough workout information, how to interpret it, and how tough it is to come by, Steve Davidowitz at gradeoneracing.com. has an informative column. Infomation is KEY in this game and unfortunately many of racings' insiders consider it their personal fifedom. There is a reference to a prominent NY based trainer that is a perfect example of why a bettor should ALWAYS be skeptical of ANYTHING a trainer says regarding one of his charges.

" the NEWYORK POST has a write-up on saratoga for those who can get it." thx, but at the moment i'm Over-Stocked with "Toilet Paper" VQ

Marcus welcome 2 formblog don't believe i have ever seen u onboard Dans ship b4 enjoy the sights & sounds btw, life preservers r handed out in this order, DRF personnel 1st, then woman & children so u should b ok if the ship goes down 1 other thing, no feeding the seagulls take it easy on Hialeah, like me he's an "Improper Bostonian " :) nice hit on the tri peace VQ

TurnBack, For the purposes of this discussion, use PPs for Indiano that Dan provided in a prior entry. Here's the click and go address: http://www.drf.com/sites/default/files/Indiano.pdf The variant is the second set of numbers at the farthest right of the lifetime PPs before the race's 1-2-3 finishers. Example: in the July 11 G2 Carry Back Stakes, the variant is 6 and the speed rating (which is next to the variant) is 97. According to the pre-Beyer Speed Figure, and based on 3 year average times over the track (in this case, Calder), Indiano earned a "DRF" speed rating of 97 with a variant of 6. That means his Speed Rating is a 97 and is a consistent performace based on other times: the track was neither playing abnormally hard-and-fast nor slow-and-tiring. Typically, the number of the variant is inversely related to the consistency of the track. A high variant means the track was playing strangely. A low variant means the track is playing normally. The downsides to this rating and variant are that (A) the Beyer Speed Figure addresses class much better than the older rating and (B) it's based only off three years of times. One upside is that it can serve as a second set of figures when you're intimate with a course, as Mike A. is. I use it that way, especially when a BSF looks out of whack. Hope that helps.

“I think going a mile and a quarter we’ll be doing a lot better,” McGaughey said. “He seems to be doing real well. He had a very good work [at Belmont] the other day.” real enough for me, baby! {for entertainment purposes only} It was a tough race and, that an "insider" like you cashed, merely proves my ultimate point. 100 points of light, and yet, which do you draw near? Good Luck! no harm done.

BSB, I meandered over to Jay Hovdey's blog to see if he had a reply for one of my comments........he had been commenting to others earlier in the thread. He didn't, but then again I wasn't sure if he would since I called him out for being an apologist for incompetence and perhaps out and out crookedness. But my I tip my cap to you, you really sizzled......and he didn't answer you either. But I did get a good chuckle out of your comments. Warning: off color captcha "not reardre" -what a groupie might have been sayin' to Dr. Dre last night.........

BSB........... Callingahardten......yes I saw the potential upside.....too many folks discount 3 year olds who beat older horses....at least good ones, it was the only reason I took Street game in the Hill Prince after beating Seattle Mission his race prior. To give folks an idea.....Seattle Mission while no world beater is an older "runner".....to beat horses like that you need be a decent, if not really good three year old. Callingahardten beat Codoy and Austins Sure Cure at CD's both hard hitters, with Codoy being a stakes winner. I was concerned about the distance because even though his maiden breaker was at 1 3/16 ths it was slow time wise. Had it been in the 1:56-1:57 I would have flown to Virginia to watch the race and brought my wheelbarrow with me....LOL! You're right he did run creditably, but he had zero left when the real running started. Perhaps KD did move soon, as I didn't expect him to be as close early as he was either, oh well......he was in my exactas......I didn't key him. As to Air Support......said I loved the horse at the distance......I thought his last, while being beat 7 1/2 by Street Game an excellent race all things considered......as I said he's no miler. Shug loved the horse ( Marcus.....I saw Shug's comments too) just couldn't get away from Mott's Sirens song with Newsdad. Your right about the figures also.....I use them both to "upgrade" a horses chances and downgrade others. Belmont was strange this year.....firm course pace /closers Moisture in the track almost strictly speed......which actually isn't strange as most turf courses play that way when moisture laden....except for the Fairgrounds where a horse almost need be Lure to win on the front end, no matter the track conditions.......I don't see getting a price on Callingahardten anymore....not coming out of that race. Though I will be looking at the "horses for courses" angle a bit.......Casino Host ran very well after just missing against older horses......after him almost 6 back to Newsdad......I realize the distance was a factor.......but while I can see the first two running big and being that much better than the rest, I just can't see Casino Host being that good also......I need to break it down further. I'll get it straight. Tell your sister to thank the jock for that one......if Banned doesn't go 5w into the stretch he may very well have won it all....nice horse. TBTA............Hello Cat (abbreviation) The track Variant....which most folks will tell you is outdated and useless is none the less a decent enough gauge as to how fast the course was that day....even during the week. Turf horses will run as fast as the course will allow them to and they are physically capable of......25,000 claimers will run as fast as allowance horses.......so unless real nags are running you'll get a fairly accurate speed/course figure....at least as accurate as you'll need for handicapping purposes......When taking into consideration how good the horses were who ran that day. The reason it works for me technically is because playing mostly the east coast and especially NYRA tracks I know the horses.....I know who's better than who, so I can basically tell how good a time is for a given course by who ran it. I will admit without knowing that TV's are a crap shoot for some. Lets take today's first race at Belmont as an example....... Mott's horse Settling Seas looked much the best, by my figures Sister Berta was second best. Now I'm sure most folks would have picked Bob's Pin Up Gal and Far Isle as the next best, with BPUG scratched that left Far Isle. Far Isle had the best recent beyers (I hate them....annie if your back from last year listen....) while SS's had the highest one race beyer....Sister berta?? Her last beyer was a 52.......27 points below F I's best and 31 points below SS's. Her personal best was 71 two starts back.........how could I say she was second best? Because she ran a excellent race when she earned the 71 beyer.....fighting early and winning off by three over a slow course...her time of 1:37:1 was superior. and remember this is a filly who was 1-7 lifetime on the turf course. of course there were other factors.....anyway a one way exacta of 1-6 brought back 41.00 in a 6 horse field with a horse who paid 3.30 to win....that my dear is a home run. Oh wait as to your question WEll they mean something to me but in a roundabout way. That is a firm course could have a variant of single digits up to a 20......but then a good course can have a variant of 16-25 and so on down the line......the times of the races in conjunction with the variant will give you an indicator......you see by knowing the horses, and how fast they can run I can pretty much know how good a race was. Sister Berta earned a 77 speed rating over a 25 track Variant......that is very good as most of the horses in that race were earning those kind of speed figures over much harder surfaces. Speed ratings and TV's are a bit antiquated as there aren't an accurate enough gauge in how good a race was.......hence the BSF's but all that stuff was only considered for the main track, not the turf courses.....turf is different, if folks won't believe it shame on them. As far as groups of numbers or a gauge you can use....not really, as I said I know the horses and the courses.....after 41 years I just know how good a number is or whether I can believe it. Take Street Games last.....I knew it was "over the top". When asked about it repeatedly my best answer was Because I know......tuff to figure that out huh?? So you see leg work is needed because I concentrate on certain tracks.....I know what a horse is physically capable of on any given day. They are subject to the laws of physics and nature....it's what made Secretariats 3 year old races so superior....he did what no horse should have physically been able to do. TBTA....the bottom line is no matter the speed or track Variant...it's who you run against and how good they are that counts the most.....you'll find the track Variant next to the speed rating just before the order of finish in the pp's, SPD Rt first TV second. I do have parameters for combinations of SPD R and TV......i'll get into that at another time......Mike A

Laura Nice win by Creative Cause (PGH) at Holly #5 . Keep those babies comming !! & whoever touted Killer Graces ...killer indeed. ---------------------------- Uncle Steve , Yes...go girls!! Was this a day for photo finishes , or WHAT! OMG! It's good to be a racing & horse fan. Blind Luck - Havre de Grace ...by a nose Alma d'Oro - In The Juice ...by a nose Right One - Yield Bogey ...by a head Nereid - Cambina ...Dead heat !! Irish Gypsy - Ultra Blend ...by a nose, more like a whisker !! And did anyone catch the trotters at The Meadowlands (race#5)? 'See You At Peelers' , this 3 yo filly is now 20 for 20. Gotta' love it. I believe the girls are taking names and kicking some 'booty, here. ---------------------------------------- Annie I love using Calracing.com, in addition to the CA race tracks (live video, and replays) they have a feature if you put in a horses name, it will give you replays from other tracks around the country. (not all) but quite a few. Enjoy your new toy :) 'bloc tinlyi'

Crimson China will blow by all of them in deep stretch for the Virginia Derby win.

Steve T, My guess on Deluxe Bus would have been that he is a gelding with a suspect tendon. However, as you probably already know, according to the chart, he's colt, he won and he was claimed yesterday.

Steve T, I see someone finally claimed your DELUXE BUS (after another win). I suppose, end of the meet, maybe a culling of horses that may not be appropriate for wherever trainer/owner is going next? Captcha: sicial coarea - ewww, I hope I don't have that. :) Annie

Cal racing what a joke.Race 9 on sat. should be a deadheat. called HP and they said they used a microscope to find a gap. What a 1/16in. is not a deadheat. Then they get the wrong # for the super. Short fields. high takeout,no brains offcials. no wonder people do not what to bet there tracks. STEVE T you should be embarrassed for them.

Nice day all around today, though the race I wanted most was the Virginia Derby......my decision to key Newsdad over Air Support came to naught as I had Banned, Callingahardten and King cCongie in the exactas....Air Support winning and Newsdad rallying belatedly for 4th.....with Banned Second. I thought Callingahardten would run well and did, threatening at the mile marker before succumbing to his efforts.....I always watch everyone in the race, even if they are marginal to win, but show upside as the latter did. I was talking to a blogger on the phone and they were puzzled by my lack of enthusiasm for Street Game among others........My exact words were after watching thousands of turf races and seeing the over the top performance by Street game in last at a mile on yielding turf, then comparing it to his previous races I couldn't for the life of me explain the "jump up" except to feel this horse is like Expansion....he will run creditably no matter the footing, beat lesser on firm courses and run the same race on yielding courses where many horses do not run as fast. The bottom line?? He gave me no reason to think he was as good as folks thought,, especially going 1 1/4m's. Distances like that separate the men from the boys. In Hindsight since I was the guy who pointed out how hot Shug McGaughy is I deserved to lose.....This race is his bread and butter....bring em along slow, get em toughened up and get them to win at a distance, but Mott's been hot too and Newsdad had way to much to do late......once squared away he finished well. Banned is Banned and my only concern with him was the distance, as it was for King Congie, was surprised by many folks feeling that banned was overrated, but I watched Banned's last two and thought him the better horse. The number one rule of turf racing........It's who you beat and how you run that count the most.......rule number two....how fast compared to track speed and number three....if not the winner, how you ran, trouble you encountered and how fast the race was run....this gives a good indication of just how good a horse is and how good the field he ran against was. That is important.....paramount actually......you play turf races by numbers alone you will lose. There isn't much difference between an allowance horse and a 25,000 claimer.....times matter. Mike A

Smarty Jones and BSB (in that order) Smarty...You are killing them !!! 3 out of 4 in the PH contest ! And your only miss was by a neck when your 2nd choice nipped your 1st choice. Nicely done once again ! BSB...You at least had one which was one more than me. LOL. Ultra Blend ran I nice race, but not nice enough. Dick W

Annie, Didn't we talk about the dangers of drugs? Napoleon, Latin, Chocolate Candy... I am afraid we are going to have to do an intervention. Nothing more powerful than Pagan Pink Ripple during the races!

Need Math whizzes help! Had the American Oaks Super for $1 with cambina on top and .50 with Nereid. Am I benefiting from the dead heat or breaking even?

Dear Boys, We are pounding your weak butts from coast to coast. By the way, we are looking to hire someone to carry our purses... Sincerely, Cambina and Nereid

Dear Boys, THAT is how you have a real horse race. Sincerely, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace

Looks like that 2 pounds was the difference. Dan, how many Breeders Cup Dirt Miles have been won by horses cutting back in distance?

Whacky Nice hit on HG ! Virginia Derby - Although Street Game looks very tough, I am going with Crimson China. A Gleam - Lots of speed. I like Ultra Blend to run them down. Dick W

Today’s fifth race at Hollywood, a five furlong sprint for maidens, includes some promising young colts with the pedigrees to make an impact in stakes races later in the year. CREATIVE CAUSE (Giant's Causeway - Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer) draws the dreaded one post, but shows decent works for the Harrington barn. His dam Dream of Summer was a top race mare. She won her maiden at first asking, then developed into a Grade 1 winner, taking the Apple Blossom (G1), A Gleam (G2) and several other stakes races. A TOE BY THREE (Stormello - Carrie My Love, by Meadowlake) earned a triple digit Brisnet speed figure in his initial outing. He lead all the way, but was overtaken at the wire, losing by ½ a length. A Toe By Three has a sprinter’s pedigree. His precocious first crop sire won the Norfolk (G1) as a juvenile but so far his offspring are 0 for 8. A Toe By Three’s dam is a half sister to the stakes winner Ava Knowsthecode, dam of stakes horses Justin Phillip, Keyed Entry and Successful Mission. The Miller barn is hitting with 19% second time runners. RUDE WARRIOR (A.P. INDY - Raylene, by Tabasco Cat) has average works, but may find five furlongs too short. He has a stamina-oriented. His dam won the 1 3/8 mile Canadian Derby (G-3) against colts, plus the British Columbia Breeders’ Cup Oaks at 1 1/8 miles. She needed three starts to win her maiden, but placed in her second attempt. Rude Warrior has Rasmussen Factor inbreeding to the Phipps family bred Missy Baba, whose descendants bore A.P. Indy, Summer Squall, Honor Grades and Raja Baba. Rude Warrior is the third foal and first colt produced by his dam. This distaff family produced the multiple Group 1 winner and sire Ad Valorem. Trainer Brian Koriner wins with 5% debuting maidens. FALCON'S THRONE (Successful Appeal - Tap Tap Antoinetta, by Pleasant Tap)had a strong 4F work July 4. He has miler speed over stamina. Falcon’s Throne’s dam was second in her debut and gained her only win in seven tries a year later. She’s a half sister to multiple G3 winners Ok by Me, D J’s Rainbow, and stakes winner Song for Annie. The Hendricks barn hits with 12% of their first time starters. BLING CHA BLING (Too Much Bling - Surf Tide, by Valid Expectations) flew through the stretch in his 4 ½ furlong debut, but fell 1 ¾ lengths short at the wire behind A Toe by Three. His sophomore sire gets win-early speedsters. His dam placed once in four tries, she’s a half sister to a stakes winner and all of her siblings are winners. Bling Cha Bling gets blinkers for his second start and the Kathy Walsh barn has a strong 26% win rate with that angle. DANGER RANGER (Forest Danger - Belsay, by Leo Castelli) wasn’t that dangerous while finishing fourth in the same contest as A Toe by Three and Bling Cha Bling. He blitzed a 3F lung opener bullet to put some speed into him for this race and adds blinkers. He’s a half brother to a listed stakes winner and a stakes placed runner. The Mulhall barn wins with 29% of their second time starters. FIT TO RULE (Hard Spun - Sweet Minister by The Prime Minister) fired a second to last bullet and should be ready to roll. He’s a son of the flashy new sire Hard Spun and Fit to Rule is a half brother to the speedy Sinister Minister. His dam was stakes placed as a juvenile. The O’Neil barn hits with 16% first time starters. AMERICAN TANKER (E Dubai - Vermilion Sea, by Boundary) has works on the slow side of average. He’s a half brother to juvenile stakes placed Big Lou. The Cerin barn is 0 for 24 with first time maidens. FEAR THE BEARD (Chapel Royal - La Belle Dame, by Bertrando) was beaten like a red headed step child in both of his starts. His sire gets flashy precocious offspring that often tend to be one hit wonders. Fear the Bear’s dam won the Santa Ysabel Stakes. The Ed Moger barn hits with 5% of their maidens. Drawing in from the AE list, YANKEE DAN (Yankee Gentleman - Lady Fairfax (GB), by Sharrood) has better than average works. He’s a half brother to a stakes placed juvenile runner and a half sister produced a stakes placed juvenile. Five of his six half siblings have won. The Kitchingman barn wins with 7% first time maidens. SELECTIONS: Bling Cha Bling should appreciate the added distance, he and Danger Ranger add blinkers and should show speed. A Toe by Three has worked well after his initial start. Creative Cause and Fit To Rule are both well bred babies. Creative Cause draws the dreaded one post, which can cause problems for first time runners. Rude Warrior gets special mention because of his breeding. Maybe he’ll pick up a piece of it, but his works and pedigree indicate that he’s a two turn horse and he’s just here for the experience. #8 Fit To Rule #6 Bling Cha Bling #2 A Toe by Three #7 Danger Ranger longshot Laura CAPTCHA: Access Ankshisa - sounds like a Harry Potter movie spell. Maybe it gives me access to free PP's for life?

Belmont Park 7-16-11 R4 #2 Callmetony running well at this level in last few races will contest the pace here with castellano up a contender at best for the lower spots #3 Zio Tony the other tony has been on the shelf for a couple months returns at much lower level that being a negative does run fresh so a must use today takes the shades off for this #7 Missile Motor finaly gets rest after long campaign but the drop in class is suspect but I think needed to wake this one up another must use today R5 #3 Take a Walk indeed this one could walk and beat this group huge drop in class going up for sale today should dominate this race from box to wire #4 Broadway Philly cuts back a skosh for this and drops 5 lbs with ortiz aboard should be enough to get this one home for the place spot #10 Punk Rock owner trainer is the only reason I have to take this one on my ticket for a lack of any other one that shows me any run at all R6 #1 Rudy Rudy Rudy has the speed to wire these here has been coming up short though so would use in both top spots for best results #7 More than Lucky cuts back to a sprint and has shown a closing kick somewhat so will be running late also dons the blinkers trainer 27% worked a bullet for this race must use #2 Titus Catienus faded big time last route cuts back where he ran a fast finishing third first race should like the cut back and be coming late for a part R8 #9 Recharged looks to have enough speed to out last the other speed here gives up grudgingly down the lane so think he is the one to beat has lost ground in his last four races hum maybe use in all spots for best #10 this one cuts back for this one and has a good turn of foot in the late stages as the speed dies he will be there to pick up the pieces rodriguez knows him best #4 Top Yank another speed type that drops down to this level will use his speed early and wait in the lane for the closers to catch him if the 9 fails to break this one could go all the way R9 #4 Yield Bogey last served notice last race that you cant overlook him in these graded races cuts back which should help the cause here a must use today #7 Right One (FR) hard hitting sort has a very fast finish down the lane one to recon with here cuts back a furlong should have him stronger late stretch dismiss at your own peril #6 Gantry last very good effort being hand ridden to the wire a rise in class is called for with this fouryear old he has speed or he can rate what more to say R10 #12 Art Currency speed to the wire looks obvious after last run the cut back only helps this one to dominate these here seems to thrive at this level the one to beat #4 Mor Chances had no rally last race but two down finished strong to get the place at a higher level than this this one run horse will be coming late today #3 Nobody Like Mike hill gone gets rodriguez dont know if that is going to help but the grade drop will help this one to get a part today probably in the lower spots good luck all mh01

Some great 3yo turf racing today Virginia Derby Obviously Banned and Street Game will be deserving favorites, but both have some chinks in the armor. Banned, like many of the Kitten's Joys, seem better at a mile and this mile and a quarter may stretch her limits today. Street Game has been ultra impressive in last 3 over Belmont Turf , but is winless in two turn races. A definite question over the distance but may just be that good. My pick is Crimson China. 2 for 2 on the grass and was very impressive drawing away in his stateside debut at 1 1/8 at gulfstream. He should relish these longer distances, and team valor really likes this one. This race should be right up his alley. Others I will be using underneath are Newsdad and King Congie. The former is Not as flashy as some of these but is 3-1-1-1 on turf with a win at 1 1/8. Finally gets back to his best surface, and should relish extra ground. King Congie is a mystery to me but really likes the grass. Hate that he has yet to run in a straight line down the stretch yet Crimson China keyed over Newsdad, King Congie, and Street Game Good Luck , the spa is one week away!!!