12/18/2013 5:52PM

Shared Belief

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It's easy to be excited about SHARED BELIEF's future prospects after the undefeated gelding toyed with a solid group of juveniles in the Grade 1 Cash Call Futurity last Saturday at Betfair Hollywood Park.

Not only was Shared Belief fast (106 Beyer, the highest 2-year-old number since Uncle Mo prevailed in the 2010 Breeders' Cup Juvenile), but he looked like a seasoned pro despite the Cash Call being his first start around two turns and only his third race overall.  The son of Candy Ride broke sweetly under Corey Nakatani and rated comfortably off a longshot pacesetter through splits of 22.86 and 46.59.  Leaving the backstretch, Gary Stevens, the rider of CANDY BOY, made a decisive move to the front, looping Shared Belief in the process.  Many young horses would have gotten very aggressive at that juncture, but Shared Belief remained under Nakatani's control.  He waited for another half-furlong before going after that rival and he blew Candy Boy's doors off turning for home.  From there, it was just a question of how far (5 3/4 lengths).

Candy Ride handled 10 furlongs without a problem when defeating the good Medaglia d'Oro in the 2003 Pacific Classic, and he's sired Big 'Cap winner Misremembered at the 10-furlong distance.  The dam was eased in her lone start around two turns and is a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Key Phrase, a filly that won her first five starts before being beaten in her lone try going long.   The bottom of the pedigree may be geared to speed more than stamina.

While Derby dreaming is certainly premature (heck, Shared Belief has yet to race on dirt and he still must prove that longer distances are within his scope), Shared Belief's performance stirred the passions of many racing fans.  The maligned juvenile division has asserted itself over the last couple of months with babies like Shared Belief, HONOR CODE, NEW YEAR'S DAY and HAVANA showing good potential.  We're bound to see some more nice ones in the weeks to come.

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Here are the top 25 WINNING Beyer Speed Figures (12/9/13 - 12/15/13):

1. SHARED BELIEF - 106 - Cash Call Futurity (G1) - 1 1/16 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
1. ZAIKOV - 106 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
3. HEITAI - 104 - Louisiana Champions Day Sprint Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
4. RAISEANOTHERGATOR - 101 - Louisiana Champions Day Starter Handicap - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Fair Grounds
4. SHARP SENSATION - 101 - Alw 62540N1X - 6 Furlongs (Polytrack) - Woodbine
6. SIMMSTOWN - 100 - Kenny Noe Jr. Handicap - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Calder
7. HAPPY MY WAY - 99 - OC 62k/N2X -N - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
8. VICAR'S IN TROUBLE - 98 - Md Sp Wt 40k - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
9. BAMBAZONKI - 95 - OC 75k/C -N - 1 1/16 Miles - Hawthorne
9. CHEROKEE ARTIST - 95 - OC 32k/N3X - 6 Furlongs - Laurel
11. JONESY BOY - 94 - Queens County Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Aqueduct
12. LUCAYAN (FR) - 93 - Hollywood Turf Cup (G2) - 1 1/2 Miles (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
12. START JUMPING - 93 - OC20k/SAL20k - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
12. TEDDY'S PROMISE - 93 - Playa del Rey Stakes - 6 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
12. ZIVO - 93 - OC 25k/N1X -N - 1 Mile - Aqueduct
16. BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS - 92 - Native Diver (G3) - 1 1/8 Miles (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
16. HOPE FOR TODAY - 92 - OC 35k/N$Y - 1 1/16 Miles - Hawthorne
16. IDE BE COOL - 92 - Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Fair Grounds
16. SUNBEAN - 92 - Louisiana Champions Day Classic Stakes - 1 1/8 Miles - Fair Grounds
16. TOLEDO EDDIE - 92 - Alw 12500s - 6 1/2 Furlongs (Cushion Track) - Betfair Hollywood
21. HEART STEALER - 91 - Sugar Swirl Stakes (G3) - 6 Furlongs - Gulfstream
21. HIGH NATIVE FLY - 91 - OC 16k/N1X -N - 6 Furlongs - Tampa Bay
21. LOUIES FLOWER - 91 - Springboard Mile Stakes - 1 Mile - Remington
24. BAFFLE ME - 90 - South Beach Stakes - 7 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) - Gulfstream
24. BET THE POWER - 90 - OC20k/SAL20k - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
24. CANDYMAN E - 90 - Spooky Mulder Stakes - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
24. HUD'S REBELLION - 90 - Louisiana Champions Day Turf Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)- Fair Grounds
24. IMAHIT - 90 - Alw 44500NC - 1 Mile - Remington
24. LADYZARBRIDGE - 90 - Louisiana Champions Day Ladies Stakes - 1 1/16 Miles - Fair Grounds
24. LION D N A - 90 - OC16k/SAL16k - 6 Furlongs - Aqueduct
24. THE BEST GLACIER - 90 - OC 30k/C -N - 6 1/2 Furlongs - Delta
24. TRIPSKI - 90 - OC 62k/N2X - 6 Furlongs (Turf) - Betfair Hollywood
24. WRITINGONTHEWALL - 90 - OC20k/SAL20k - 1 Mile 70 Yards - Aqueduct

*The lifetime past performances for SHARED BELIEF and ZAIKOV are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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45. DAN ILLMAN,
Your horse is ALMOST FAMOUS. Well, that's a start. :) He is a dark bay colt by Unbridled's Song out of Wild Gams by Forest Wildcat. He was born 2/14/11. Aww, a Valentine's baby!
Your trainer is Patrick Byrne.
He sold at FTF Feb2013 two-year-old sale for 500K! He is 40-1 on Wynn Futures.
He has made 3 starts and earned $56,479.
Race record:
9/13 CD Broke maiden in first start at 6F
10/27 CD 4th Street Sense at 1 mile
11/9 CD Won AllOptCl75K at 1-1/16 miles
Well, he's been practicing at Churchill Downs. That can't hurt. Good luck with him!
Annie


Thanks for the MKB, Annie!  I'm afraid I've already jinxed this promising colt as he scratched from the Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill with a stone bruise.  He did breeze a bullet half-mile this morning at Palm Meadows so perhaps we'll see him shortly.


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One of the things we do when we are on to a specific sire/trainer/rider is to build criteria on when and where to bet them. We notice something, start building parameters around what we saw, make up the criteria and then test it then we follow it, religiously we follow it. Last year at the start of the Gulf meet Mike commented that the Starship horses that Dwoskin trains were a helluva bet when they hit Gulfstream turf. I then did the research and built the criteria and tested it. I have pulled the guts out of that e-mail (went to almost 40 people) and made a PDF of it. I think the e-mail clearly spells out how we operate on criteria. I have asked Dan to post the PDF on the next Wednesday blog change..
Steve T.


The PDF is attached at the bottom of this blog post.


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Dan - Do you know what is going on with Crop Report ? Also any idea on what happened to the very fast , yet a bit erratic , Eighyfiveinafifty ?
ty peter k

CROP REPORT bled when winning the Rushaway Stakes in his most recent start on March 23. He then came down with an injury, but the connections noted on Twitter that he started back training in early October.

EIGHTYFIVEINAFIFTY is a stallion in Mexico.

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Hi Dan, Just wondering if there is any way to dig up the past performances for pino azul thanks
Aaron Patchett

PINO AZUL's past performances are available at the bottom of this blog post.

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Friends,

It looks as if we'll have our annual FormBlog Convention at Gulfstream Park early next year.  For more details, head on over to Laura's excellent website

http://ironmaidensthoroughbreds.com/Formblog.html

It's always a blast so come on out if you can.


***

The weekend handicapping previews should be available on the site soon.


You can follow me on Twitter @DRF_DanIllman


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Congrats to Annie for finishing first in the most recent HandiGambling contest.


Rick M's HandiGambling scoresheets for the past two weeks are available at the bottom of this blog post.


Annie selected Friday's ninth race at Gulfstream for this week's exercise.


PAST PERFORMANCES ARE AVAILABLE AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS BLOG POST.


Remember that you have a mythical $100 with which to wager on the race, and the entrant with the highest money total will receive a "Monthly Enhanced 60-Card Past Performance Plan."
 
Anyone going over the $100 limit will be disqualified.
 
Please post your plays and analysis to the blog.

PLEASE GIVE YOUR NAME OR BLOG MONIKER AT THE END OF THE HG PLAY AND/OR ANALYSIS.
 
Please separate the play from the analysis and label the play "HG" with the program numbers (instead of the horse's name) for easier scoring.
In the event of a tie, the earliest post gets first preference. ONE ENTRY PER E-MAIL ADDRESS PLEASE.

I reserve the right to approve or deny any entries.
 
I know that there is a time issue for some of you, but let's remember why we began the HandiGambling races in the first place. The goal was to share ideas on why we like these horses, and why we're betting them the way we are. I'm not asking for a novel, but if you could spare a sentence or two outlining your handicapping angles, and thought processes about wagering, it would be appreciated.

REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE DECLARED THE WINNER OF THE HANDIGAMBLING EXERCISE; PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM WITH YOUR DRF LOGIN AND PASSWORD IN ORDER TO ACCESS YOUR PRIZE PACKAGE.

ALSO, IF THE WINNER WOULD LIKE TO SELECT THE FOLLOWING WEEK'S RACE, PLEASE CONTACT FORMBLOG@DRF.COM NO LATE THAN THE FOLLOWING WEDNESDAY MORNING (A FRIDAY RACE IS MOST IDEAL).

Best of luck to all.


***FROM SCOREKEEPER PENN NATIONAL RICK***

I read some entries on here and there are some people who put their heart out on their picks(such as DavidM9999) and give you great analysis on who they like and why and then there are others who elect not to give any reasoning behind their entries. The rule I will implement EFFECTIVE 3/1/13 will be... any entry without ANY analysis will be ignored. We are not asking you to put out a novel, but again a sentence or two. Also, I will put communication out when Dan puts out new blogs.
My intent is not to be jerk on this, but what's fair is fair. I'm not taking away from this week or past winners regarding all of this, but we do need to make the change.
If you have any questions/concerns...please send an email to FORMBLOG@DRF.COM and it will get forwarded to me.
Thank You!
Rick

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AttachmentSize
SharedBelief.pdf612.89 KB
Zaikov.pdf652.64 KB
Starship Criteria.pdf1.25 MB
Pino Azul.pdf561.73 KB
Copy of Formblog Aqueduct 12-6-13.xls71 KB
Copy of Formblog Farewell Hollywood 12-13-13.xls69.5 KB
HGGPTURF.pdf185.94 KB
SAR7.pdf178.26 KB