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Scouting The 2-Year-Olds
As I was getting off the plane back from the Breeders’ Cup, a couple of racing fans who recognized me asked if there were any 2-year-olds out there that I liked. Any 2-year-olds at all.
I got where they were coming from. After a maiden won the Juvenile Sprint, and after the fourth quarter mile of the Juvenile was run in 27.50, making for an interminable final five-sixteenths of a mile in 34.30, it’s easy to think that the 3-year-olds we will be talking so much about a few months from now will be an entirely different group from the one we saw at the Breeders’ Cup.
For example, a week before the Breeders’ Cup, Uncaptured was very impressive winning the Iroquois Stakes out of the mile chute at Churchill Downs in his first ever start on dirt, earning a 90 Beyer Figure, and improving his record to 5 for 6. And the day after the Breeders’ Cup, Violence improved his record to 2 for 2 with a decisive victory in the Nashua Stakes out of the mile chute at Aqueduct, earning an 86 Beyer.
But there are other lesser known, less proven, yet no less promising 2-year-olds out there. Here are a few who have caught my eye:
Little Distorted – This Distorted Humor colt won a very fast maiden race in his recent debut at Belmont Park, receiving a 101 Beyer. Now, you don’t want to jump too fast when a firster or a lightly raced juvenile gets a big fig, as evidenced by Emollient. Emollient got a huge 98 Beyer when she got her maiden win at Belmont in late September, and in the context of other times that day, her race was indeed very fast. Unfortunately, no one who has run back from the Emollient race has justified the high fig, raising the question if there was some sort of weird aberration at play in that race. In any case, there is reason to buy into the validity of the Little Distorted race, namely in the form of the next name on the list.
Revolutionary – He was a tick under 2-5 against Little Distorted because he ran giant in his debut at Saratoga, finishing a close third after getting absolutely obliterated at the start. From an odds standpoint it was a disappointment this son of War Pass didn’t win, but he ran very well finishing second, and his previously demonstrated ability supports the form of this maiden race.
Delhomme – Finished a solid second as the favorite in his debut at Saratoga while racing a bit greenly, and then took a significant step forward second time out. This Dixie Union colt led all the way to win going a mile at Belmont, getting a 94 Beyer.
Long River – Was soundly beaten in his first start, but as many Kiaran McLaughlin trainees do, he improved dramatically second time out to finish a game second to Delhomme. Long River also has some kind of pedigree, being by A.P. Indy out of Round Pond, romping winner of the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff.
Titletown Five – Picked up minor awards in his first three starts, but after a freshening and the addition of Lasix, this Tiznow colt recently exploded with a seven furlong maiden win at Churchill by the length of the stretch (nine lengths, to be precise), earning a 97 Beyer. Titletown Five, like Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint upsetter Hightail, is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. I think Titletown Five is by far the better of the two.
Frac Daddy – By Scat Daddy (it figures, right?), this one also moved way up with Lasix on. He finished second in an off-the-turfer in the mud at Belmont in his debut, but with Lasix on and, notably, going two turns last time out at Churchill, Frac Daddy ran away to win by almost 10 lengths, receiving a 90 Beyer, and that after breaking from the 12 hole.
Gulfport – Also a recent Churchill maiden graduate, he showed flashes of ability in his first three starts, but put it all together last time out. This Unbridled’s Song colt ran off to score by more than seven lengths going seven furlongs, earning an 88 Beyer.
War Academy – Got the job done as the even money favorite in his debut at Betfair Hollywood just this past Friday. He won by only 1 3-4 lengths, and he received a Beyer of only 81. But what was impressive about it is, as a son of Giant’s Causeway and an A.P. Indy mare, War Academy was able to do what he did at a 6 1-2 furlong distance that figures to be well short of his best.
Shakin It Up – A rallying second in his debut, this Midnight Lute colt did get a perfect trip in his second and most recent start. But he also improved with blinkers on to win going away at a six furlong distance that also might be less than his best, getting an 86 Beyer. Like War Academy, he is trained by Bob Baffert, who is certainly familiar with the road to the Derby.
What about Whiskey Romeo. Check out his stakes winning effort at Laurel on November 10th. Sure looks like a very fast and talented horse to me. He was very professional horse especially for a 2 year old. I saw Curlin and Rachael as 2 year olds and they got my attention. I see something with this one. Time will tell.
Since we are in a conversation´s sake reality show, let me point out Bern Identity. Just missed the Delta Downs Jackpot in a not to happy ride by his jock, but the way he flew down the stretch is an inequivocal proof of stamina and power that gets Derby winners. As for Beyer figures...they are just that:figures. I still love handicapping the old way.
Take a look at Flashy Gray, a two year old filly out of Flashy Bull. She won her maiden in the 8th race on Nov 8th at Churchill Downs by 10 lenghts handily!! The race can be viewed on Churchill Downs website. And she was bred by Dolphus Morrison, breeder of Rachel Alexandra; he said FG was the fastest horse he ever had. She was purchased by West Point Thoroughbreds out of Keeneland. Mr. Morrison has been dispursing all but two horses out of his barn.
Great Stuff, Fantastic!
The three words! Lucas,Lucas,Lucas--------------------He has new owners and he is back again. Watch his stock by English Ghannel!
you missed arguably the most impressive maiden 2 yo winner at aqueduct on sat. nov . 10th. his name is vyjack.won easily under monster hammerlock.had plenty left in the tank.could of won by 10 if jock wanted.bred to run all day tom mallios
Most folks are looking at horses who have stakes wins or blowout maiden scores. I'm of the philosophy that you take a promising colt, run em, educate them. Give em time to mature and focus on early 3 yr old races.. Honorable Dillon. Won at Saratoga, stoped and rested, and now slowly starting back. Too many burn out otherwise.
Mike... don't we have to take into some account the lack of lasix in the 2 year old races during the Breeders Cup? The other horses you mention are running with lasix (that didn't run in the BC) correct? The #3 horse that was running so green (chasing Pletcher's #4 horse that eventually won the BC Juvenile in 1:44 and change) seems that he might have some upside. I thought he ran 2 lengths better from just running green. I know he will be discounted by the East because of O'Neil's 3crown debacle with IHA, but the horse was very close to winning that BC race; closer than Rosie wanted him to be.
MW: Glad to note that you included "Frac Daddy" in your column, looks like he will be running in the G-2 Jockey Club at CD Nov 24, I will be watching this one.
anyone know whats happened to archwarrior?
- 1.Posted 12/08/2013 09:52AM
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