05/23/2008 7:55PM

Saturday Stakes, Storm Flag Flying, etc.

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Louisville Handicap (Race 10 - Churchill):
Another difficult race so I'll stab for a bomb.  Transduction Gold is proven at this difficult 12 furlong distance, and he upset Grade 3 foes in the Sycamore three back at Keeneland.  He then was completely overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Turf - a throwout race if ever there was one - and may have been short of condition when trying this marathon trip off the bench in the Elkhorn on April 25.  Pickapocket (for Mott), and Lattice finished one-two in a recent money allowance at Keeneland.  Neither would be a surprise here, but both must prove they can stay.  Pickapocket was very game in the allowance as he always found more in the stretch, but Lattice may be the one to prosper at this trip.  Brass Hat finished well ahead of the top pick in the Elkhorn, and is another that may do better in the second start back.  He's never won on turf, though, and may have to overcome a moderate to slow pace up front.  Silverfoot is 4-5 over this course including three wins in this race (2004-2006).  He hasn't won since the 2006 edition - nine starts ago - and the eight-year-old may be getting long in the tooth. 
Selections:  Transduction Gold, Lattice, Pickapocket

Sheepshead Bay Handicap (Race 9 - Belmont)
I'll admit it...I'm a sucker for J'Ray.  I'm simply married to the horse, and while she's won seven of 19 starts, I'm still not sure how good she really is.  She was no match for Mauralakana in the Mairzy Doates at Calder, but it was her usual solid try, and she should be close to very slow fractions at Belmont on Saturday.  Mauralakana has done little wrong this year, and the five-year-old may be reaching full maturity for Christophe Clement.  She does her best running from off the pace, and thus may be somewhat compromised by the expected moderate pace.  She's the class of the field, and must be respected.  Herboriste finished behind Mauralakana in her last two races, but is a consistent sort, and should be running late for a piece...at least.  Hostess gave some nice efforts last year, but finally broke through with a graded win in the Orchid at Gulfstream on March 30.  John Velazquez fits this mare like a glove, but Hostess is another that would appreciate pace help.
Selection:  J'Ray

My Juliet Stakes (Race 9 - Philadelphia)
Dream Rush will probably scratch to run at Belmont on Sunday so Wild Gams' price will significantly decrease.  She may not offer much value, but will still be tough from off the pace.  A three-time Grade 3 winner, Wild Gams wasn't disgraced when an even fourth in the Grade 2 Madison on polytrack last time out, and should appreciate some class relief.  Fancy Diamond is a perfect 3-3, but she received a great trip stalking dueling pacesetters last time out at Aqueduct.  This will be the toughest field the former $40,000 maiden claimer has ever faced.  Dream Rush will come off the Disabled List, and may be an underlay here or at Belmont.  Sheets was the beaten favorite in the very fast Ms. Woodford Stakes on the Breeders' Cup undercard, and will make her first start of the hot Alan Goldberg barn. 
Selections:  Wild Gams, Fancy Diamond

More importantly, who do you like on Saturday?  I'd like to know.

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Dan, Have you heard anything regarding Storm Flag Flying's first 2yo Colors Flying? I hear he is in trainning at the Spa. Could you also post the lifetime PP's for Storm Flag Flying. She was one heck of a 2yo herself. Thanks
Matt

Haven't heard anything about Colors Flying, but make sure to put her on your watch list so you'll be alerted when he records his first published workout.

Here are Storm Flag Flying's lifetime past performances:

Download StormFlagFlying.pdf

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BTW, speaking of good young sires from Florida. The top sire in Florida is the sire of Lt. Ron. Does anyone know that much about Ron's sire?
vicstu

Lieutenant Ron is by Graeme Hall, a sire that I spotlighted in Betting Maidens & 2-Year-Olds.  Graeme Hall is by Dehere out of Grade 3 sprint winner Win Crafty Lady, and is a half-brother to Grade 1 sprint winner Harmony Lodge, Grade 3 winner Win McCool, and multiple stakes-winner Win's Fair Lady.  Win Crafty Lady's most famous sibling is Diligence, the winner of the Grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap.

Here are Graeme Hall's lifetime past performances:

Download graeme_hall.pdf

A $200,000 yearling purchase, he had a solid career as a multiple Grade 2 winner, and he outran his sprint pedigree.

Graeme Hall stands for $5,000 at Winding Oaks Farm in Florida.  Here is his stallion page from Winding Oaks:

http://stallions.bcbloodstock.com/images/stallions.bcbloodstock.com/default1.aspx?contentName=Horse%20List&horseId=99&thumbsize=_thumb

Graeme Hall is also the sire of multiple stakes-winner Graeme Six. 

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Dan, I noticed Aquarian was on the DL, but I thought I read that he ended up being euthanized that day or soon after.
Alex P


It's now updated.  Thanks.

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Nice picks by Arazi at Belmont today!  Hope you cashed!

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Be back Sunday night with some Memorial Day opinions.

Best of luck this weekend,

Dan

Annie More than 1 year ago
chicago gerry, Thanks for your input on the Met Mile. I know the answer to the first part of your question to Claire S. The front legs need to come out first with the head forward on the legs, otherwise there's a lot of trouble. As to the second part, I believe they did get the mare to roll on the ground and I guess this can shift the foal around. Annie
Blue Horseshoe More than 1 year ago
Noodles, I know you're not above the Zayats on the leading owners list, so where exactly are you on that list??
SR Vegas More than 1 year ago
chicago gerry.. If I may add, after rading a few books (for leisure) on this, "My Racing Heart" touched on this situation. A foal is born with hooves coming out first, and the foals nose sits atop them. (kinda like you can grab on to all of them to pull) The rolling motion, is about flipping the mare's uterous to get in the correct posistion....this is a simple layman's terms, so I am sure Claire S. will correct all I have said. Sorry for injecting here, but It just caught my attention. For the not light of hearted: http://www.horsetalk.co.nz/breeding/tha-normal.shtml http://www.sporthorsesnewzealand.com/impendingbirth.html These links give a more detailed explanation of the process. SR Vegas
Steve T More than 1 year ago
C, I actually had three scores from a bumpy ride - I hit the super in the first, I hit a large exacta with Backbackbackgone over the entrymates and then the Star Nicholas super. The ticket on the Star Nicholas super was 4-5-12/4-5-12/1-4-5-6-12/1-4-5-6-7-12. The tri backup was 4-5-12/4-5-12/ALL. I have pretty much given up any of the horizontal bets. I handicap vertically, bet vertically and think vertically. You bring up a good point and that is patience. I used to get cranky and start fooling with my bets (both types and amounts). Now I keep using the same basic system - a WPS, a super, a tri backup and depending on the race an exacta or exacta wheel. I use the exactas in short field races like the 2 year old stakes today where I had a favorite that towered over the field with a coupled entry that went off at 11/1 and there was a significant overlay on the exacta. If I am not wild about a race I back off to dime supers, and I only bet lightly on straight claimers (sticking with maiden, allowance and stakes races). To all the folks who haven't been around, C "realigned" my betting towards supers about a year ago and with the addition of Dr. Derango I have become a much better player - so there is proof that an old dog can learn new tricks! If you bet supers, you have to be patient and accept that on many days you get skunked or pick up a low payer. I tend to structure my supers as two of my "normal" selections plus the DD selection in the first two slots then expand from there on the final two spots. Funny but when I get beaten it is almost always the place slot that does me in.
MudhoundMojo More than 1 year ago
Star Nicholas, had no reason to be in that field.... If horses who looked outclassed on paper only raced in races they looked like they could compete, we'd all be paid $17. exactas, and $86. tri's(on the high end) and like it! Pass! I'll take large fields full of 25, 30, 40, and 50 to one shots, thank you very much. The more horses with "no shot" the better (especially, if it is the public, spouting "no chance"). Thank God, for trainers and owners who are ambitious and love to test there steeds against the best competition. Thank God for the Star Nicholas' of this world! P.S. After that post this could be funny, because I am throwing commentator out of top two slots in tri and keying on the Zayat's Premium Wine and Lord Snowden, surrounded by Divine Park and First Def, in the Met. Good luck all and congrats Steve T.
laura More than 1 year ago
Tinky, You're doing it again, taking things out of context. When I stated "1 1/4 miles is well within his limitations according to his pedigree.” please read the REST of the paragraph "Well, he's already gutted out a tenacious win at 1 1/8 miles, and 1 1/4 miles is well within his limitations according to his pedigree. His only drawback is being too eager and nervous before his races as a three-year-old. Hopefully, his temper will mellow with a little more maturity and he can show us what he's capable of." I meant exactly that, nothing more. I use a variety of tools to determine if a horse is suitable for a certain distance. Pedigree is one, conformation, gait, temperament are others Do I think he will actually get 1 1/4 miles? Not at this point in his career because he seems overanxious. Also, if you'd like to continue the discussion in private, it's fine with me, let's not bore the rest of the group. I enjoy reading your comments and you've made some interesting points, perhaps I need to clarify my points. Maybe we can learn from each other.
jlove More than 1 year ago
Happy Memorial Day All, I have to admit I own a bit of guilt for the first 10 rounds of this brouhaha between Tinky and the gang. It all emulated from my touting support for Premium Wine. As Van Savant said sometimes art imitates life and by day im often at the root of key issues and controversy (in a good way - identifying solutions)...All that being said I wanted to give the proverbial "cant we all just get along" speech if only to say that this group is just some of the most insightful and interesting handicappers I have ever "virtually" met :) As a ny'er i often times have not paid much mind to west coast tracks but with my involvement in this room I have since grown my exposure and knowledge...Congrats to Steve T...that is a hit i have often dreamed of...use it well...and keep up the great work...Steve V nice showing with Smart Hit...You have really grown my opinion on levine here in the ny market...and for everyone else i just want to say thank you for your continued education on dosage...workouts...breeding..and for sharing your watch lists...and for sharing the love of the sport of kings with me... ps anyone hear from Jason on Harmony Found?...all i know was there was a scratch... pps can anyone weigh in on the 5/8's crack in BBs hoof? It would seem that the expert that they brought in should be able to repair it for this one race and then on to retirement...but it doesnt seem to be too big a deal should he make the starting gate? Touch Gold, Unbridled Song, River Keen, all races with a patch...am I right on this? Is he 2/5 now and not 1/5? What do ya think...and last thought on the belmont...are you guys still high on Tomcito for the belmont? I see the price but admittedly havent seen the talent (sorry sripa1212) at this level and figure this is a cold tri bb/cd/doc paying 18 bucks...
laura More than 1 year ago
Happy Memorial Day to all, and a big THANK YOU to those Blue Boxers & Thongs who served. Steve T, WTG on the Super! JohnnyZ, Thanks for the info on Lauren, I'll keep an eye on TVG. SR Vegas, Well said, I'm bored with the whole thing and ready to move to another topic. Doing what the Green Monkey didn't....Check out Mr Mistoffelees, a $1.5 mil. purchase by the Coolmore clan. He broke his maiden at first asking by 9 1/4 lengths in a 4 1/2F race (Keeneland 4/24 Race 3). If he dosn't end up with the typical baby ailments, I expect we'll see him in stakes races at Saratoga or elsewhere. I'm sure everyone's sick of discussing pedigrees about now (I know I am, lol), so if you have an interest in him, let me know and I can send you an analysis I did on him a few weeks ago.
Tinky More than 1 year ago
johnyz – While I've ignored a number of other insubstantial posts aimed at me, I think that yours – which really should win some kind of award – deserves a response. It's not in the least bit important for me to reveal who I am and exactly what roles I have played in the industry. Every post that I've written stands on its own, and my "credibility", as you put, can easily be inferred from the quality of my arguments. Why you haven't been able to do so is a mystery, but if you believe that I lack credibility, then all you have to do is challenge the points that I have made. In fact, that's all that anyone needs to do, if they feel that my credibility is in question. However, now that the dust has settled, quite a few posters have agreed with my initial point about management and placement of horses, others now understand what kind of influence Distorted Humor actually is, and still others have learned that the Dosage system is seriously flawed. Revealing my name and resumé would do nothing to bolster the points that I have made, except, apparently, in your mind. You state that: "All you have done so far is beat up on some very credible poster's, state that dosage thoughts are worse than child abuse, and that Distorted Humor can't sire a baby that can run a distance." Everything in that attack is both hyperbolic and inaccurate, as anyone who has read my posts can see. Finally, do me a favor: if you want to attack me again, please try to speak to the substance of what I have written.
Stephen Taylor More than 1 year ago
RobertSD, I just can't see the track paying out the purse and returning the money bet. (It did happen at Oaklawn, but that was because the track's starting gate wouldn't move out of the way) This one goes under the category of "I learn something new every day" (I'm sure many of you are way ahead of me on this one) Our partnership had a horse in Friday in a one turn mile. He was coming off a strong 3rd and was dropping in class. The trainer said to me "If this were two turns I'd bet him" Well, it was one turn, and the horse didn't run well. We went out to Arlington yesterday and a couple of odds on favorites lost because (in my opinion) of the distance. In the stakes, Mini-Sermon was 7/10 but had never gone as short as 6f-his maiden win was at 7f but his other 2 7f were not impressive. But at a mile or so she was a tough cookie. Sure enough, well beaten 3rd in a 5 horse race. Also, in the 5th Silver Trippi went off at 9/10 but had never been 2 turns (although did have a second in a turf sprint) She actually ran fairly well, but ran out of gas to be 2nd. (I actually cashed ok on both of these races) Isn't amazing how often we pick up little things that either we didn't know, or knew and forgot? Last, regarding Z Humour, I actually had him involved on the bottom of some gimmix in the Derby, and while pedigree can give you an inkling, there are a couple of things I need to say in defense of the Zayatt's: First, you really don't know if a horse will get the mile and a quarter until you try, and secondly, horses only have one opportunity to run in the Derby, so I say that if you've got the earnings, you've got a sound, fit horse, GO FOR IT! The only time I would "get on a barn" for running in the Derby (or any race they want to take a shot at, for that matter) is if the horse isn't physically 100%.