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Saturday stakes, questions
What are your thoughts on parlays? I have been following this blog for over a year and have not seen any hint of a 2-3 race parlay by any blogs. My dad back in the 80's always thought this was the best way to make a couple of grand.
I don't have much experience with parlays. Maybe some of our posters can help you out. I do know that the parlay was a fairly popular play in the days before the proliferation of Pick 3's, Pick 4's, Rolling Doubles, and Pick 6's. Now that there are so many multi-race wagering options, the Parlay has fallen by the wayside.
Back me up here. How many think Dan should get a new picture to put on here and for contests and such?
You're right. The old one needs to go. I'm working on it. Hopefully, I'll find one that doesn't make me gag, and will put it up by New Year's.
I'm not all that up on training & such, but is 2 months that long of a turn out time, if they keep her focused and walking and moving?..
S R Vegas
It's not a lot of time, and I'm not concerned about it at all. She's accomplished everything her connections could have asked for this year, and the logical time to give her a break was after the Breeders' Cup. If she comes back next year, she'll be pointed for all of the big filly and mare races, and may take a shot against males.
Well readers, what do I do? I feel I have two decent solutions.
1) Learn to play claimers on the Hawthorne/Arlington circuit.
2) Simply stick to strengths, and not wager again until after the Christmas/New Years' Holidays, when Santa Anita, Fair Grounds (with more shippers), and Gulfstream get rolling.
It's an interesting dilemma. I would stick to my strengths while studying my weaknesses. Play the races where you're most comfortable while analyzing (without investment) the past performances and results of the claimers in the search for patterns you can exploit. This way, you get a little bit of a break before the holidays while playing a couple of races a week. I have the same problem. I abhor claiming races, and stick to maidens most of the time. I play my biggest bets on maiden, allowance, and stakes races while keeping a close eye on trends in claiming races. Most handicappers have their comfort zone of races (whether it be sprints, turf, stakes, etc). I wouldn't leave my comfort zone if you're not confident in your selection process.
Dude , Dry Martini was practically eased to the wire in his dominant
So given that we don't know
a) where he'll run next
b) when he'll run next
c) who he'll run against
You are looking for a regression based on the gallop out on a bad track
of an eased up winner.
So do you call Steve Crist, Uncle Steve at family gatherings :))
...Dan, I have watched the race in question, both ways, although the head-on is not great due to the inclement weather.
I once saw Pat Valenzuela do the exact same thing, and I made a note to bet against next out because of the "poor gallop out". I was wrong in that case, as he came back to win for absolute fun.
P.Val did the same thing again as he crossed the finished line.
I don't know if this case will turn out similarly, but I'd have no problem supporting him back myself if circumstances dicatated for the following reasons.
I noticed around both turns that he was slipping a bit, parts of the track seemed drier than others, and when he made his move coming out of the far turn he was lucky to find a [drier] part of the track he could get into, and he got over it quite well, swallowing up the leaders and taking control of the race very quickly thereafter.
He was still asking for run with strong hand urging in mid-stretch and I think he did this with the intent of putting the race completely away and then pulling up early so he wouldn't have to take the clubhouse turn at ordinary speed, a clubhouse turn that was really wet and slippery, at a speed that was too dangerous for his horse...
Two different ways to disagree with one man's opinion, don'cha think?
For those of you that didn't get Vince's witticism, he's implying that the only reason I'm here is that I'm the Dos Caras Jr. to Mr. Crist's Mil Mascaras. Of course, everyone knows that my aspiration is to be the Alushe to his Tinieblas. Non-fans of Lucha Libre may have to look this one up. Vince also apparently doesn't care for StableMail horses based on visual opinions...unless they match up with his own. I promise I'll do better next time.
As for slew, he makes an interesting observation about Dry Martini slipping a bit on the turns, and I may have to rethink my original position about the gallop-out. That's an intriguing argument. Nice work.
Question for the breeding pontificators... does Highway Patrol (AP Indy - Flanders) end up a stallion somewhere even if he retires with just a maiden win on his resume?
He probably does, and one could argue that this is one of the reasons why the breed is suffering - too many horses of suspect ability are reproducing. I understand that he has a beautiful pedigree, but this is a horse that finished last in his first two starts against winners, and he earned a 62 Beyer Speed Figure in finishing seventh in our HandiGambling exercise. Even though he isn't much on the racetrack, he may get a chance to be a regional sire.
BTW do you think that the depressed auction prices we are seeing will keep more horses out on the track at least for the short term? I'm not sure about the stallions but it would seem that some of the mares/fillies may have better earning capability on the track with the declining values.
It depends on who owns the fillies. If the connections are interested in breeding, they may keep the horses on the track to earn as much as they can. If they're interested in selling their quality females at auction, then they'll probably retire when they feel they can get the most at the sales. I don't see the poor economy as a factor in prolonging careers. It may actually work the other way, at least for the colts. Their owners may want to take the big bucks when they can get it by going to stud instead of risking a career- or life-threatening injury on the track.
dan, a few weeks ago in the ny entries section of the form there was a plug from gasper moschera on the book he wrote ive been looking for it to be repeated but it hasnt been is there anyway you could find out how to obtain it , or perhaps ask steve to rerun it ,thanks alot
Try this link:
There's also another style of A.P. Indy offspring that is chestnut with chrome and often very beautiful (like Rags to Riches, AP Arrow, Master Command).
A.P. Indy also has amazing results when bred to Mr. Prospector mares. Graded winners from this "nick" include:
1st poster on Dan's blog long tim reader. Dan or anyone else know of recent changes to the PDF charts??? Todays charts have an odd symbol of either O or C or E to the right of the horses position and lengths behind
Welcome aboard! I believe those symbols were computer-generated typos, and the chart should be corrected by now.
Now a question about the tenth at CD. Does the asterisk after the AW symbol in the last race for Flying Warrior mean that they run an about distance on the main track at KEE or does it mean something else in this instance?
You're exactly right. An asterisk that precedes a distance is not the exact distance, but an approximate distance. Typical for turf courses with rails, SA, and Kee.
*1 = About One Mile
1 = One Mile exactly
Please post the past performances for Sing Because. He's my favorite claiming horse ever. He brought his lunch pail to work every time, and horses like him are the ones we need to celebrate. He won his last career race at age 10......what a way to go out!
Again, Sing Because.......
Here are the pp's:
Hammersly has written that Shakis was ijured and euthanized. Is that true? That would be a shame, the Citation was supposed to have been his last start before coming home to stand at Shadwell.
g or g
Unfortunately, it's true. Shakis was euthanized after injuring a leg following a workout at Hollywood Park earlier this morning. He was scheduled to make his final start in the Citation Handicap next week.
Congrats to Alan for making it to Vegas yet again, to nancyb for her nice pick at the Big A earlier in the week, and to billg for earning the highest total for out recent HandiGambling adventure. billg now gets to select our HandiGambling race for Wednesday.
Also, Happy Birthday to S R Vegas!
Have lots to discuss next week including Curlin vs. Big Brown in the breeding shed, types of multi-race bets, breeding stamina to speed and vice versal, and other handicapping angles.
HANDIGAMBLING 111 REDUX As per Buffalo Joe's comment, I've been thinking that it may be a heck of a lot of effort to calculate the winner of the contest with the various betting permutations that could occur. So if there is no objection I have no problem with sticking to the one race format. I would prefer Wednesday's sixth race which is a maiden sp.wt. for 2yr. olds on the turf @ 1/16 at Churchill.
As long as we have been complaining about bad rides, watch the horrendous ride Alan Garcia gave Rouge Victory in the 9th today at Churchill. If I were George Weaver, I wouldn't ride him again. Watch for this one next out.
Van Savant, Had to laugh at you, and with you, when I saw that you got SR's 29th Birthday wish in, just in time.- 11:58 P.M. -that's cutting it close my friend!
Sorry for the bad info: Cooler by the Lake is running Friday, not Wednesday. Also, Erdiston was claimed out of the race Sunday, and while he gave us a lot of excitement (and a great trip to Minnesota!) he had some issues obviously (If he were 100, or even 90% he would have toyed with that field yesterday in my opinion, especially after Justin was kind enough to scratch his horse and leave the door open for us) But, all in all, it worked out ok. Claimed for 25, earned over 50K, and we got 25 back for a horse who's almost 8 years old, and obviously had some issues. He really needs a break and hopefully he'll come back and continue to be successful, even though it won't be for us (although I'm guessing we'll see him for less than 25 when he returns to the races so you never know)
Steve, The leaders' times are used for good reason. Without them, early pace set by the front-runners cannot be calculated. In dog racing, there is really no such thing as pace, at least the way we usually think about it. Also, there's no way to accurately time trailing horses. Basically, that would require the same lengths-behind calculation most handicappers use already. In any event, Formulator can compute each horse's splits. I'd imagine it too uses lengths-beaten.
Mark: Well Positioned got a 90. Went a full second faster than NW1X Alw for older in the 5th.
Dan - Great call in the Discovery, I got a little piece of that exacta. Also, on handigambling, if it comes to a vote I'm for the one race format we started with.
Here is an interesting toy for those so inclined; it is a spreadsheet that calculates each runners time for each fraction in a race (in this case the 1st race at Hollywood on Sunday). When I have the time I will create a database that auto calculates. You know when I am lounging around doing nothing... http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pIaalb5z28p-egnRfpzj_HQ&hl=en It is a good exercise to see what happened within the race, and as a post-race pace evaluation. It also makes pretty airplanes when you print it out. This is something the dog racing world does that I wish the horse racing world would do as well - rather that using the lead horse's fractional and final times, use the actual runners. Here is a dog racing program so you can see what I mean: http://www.trackinfo.com/trakdocs/hound/tu/Rpages/TUCSON-Nov22-Saturday-Evening-Program.pdf
Gotta post a bit early due to travel tomorrow. Wanted to try a Super this time, but, won't be around to see who's running. Seems like too much trouble trying to figure who is going to be in or out. If I don't get back, Happy Thanksgiving all! If on Turf: $3 Tri Albarado/ Desormeaux, Bridgmohan, Borel, Mena,Herbert/ Desormeaux, Bridgmohan,Borel,Mena, Herbert $2 Tri Desormeaux,Bridgmohan,Borel,Mena, Herbert/ Albarado/ Desormeaux, Bridgmohan,Borel, Mena, Herbert If on Turf and Pointing Home is in: $3 Tri Theriot/ Albarado, Desormeaux, Bridgemohan, Borel, Mena/ Albarado, Desormeaux, Bridgmohan,Borel, Mena $2 Tri Albarado,Desormeaux, Bridgmohan, Borel, Mena/ Theriot/ Albarado, Desormeaux, Bridgmohan, Borel,Mena If on Main Track: $3 Tri Albarado/Leparoux, Desormeaux, Bridgemohan, Mena,Herbert/ Leparoux,Desormeaux, Bridgmohan,Mena, Herbert $2 Tri Leparoux/Albarado, Desormeaux,Bridgmohan,Mena Borel/ Albarado,Desormeaux, Bridgmohan,Mena,Borel
Jim Tully, Regarding Alan Garcia's ride on Rogue Victory in yesterday's nightcap at the Big A: I bet the horse so that explains everything. However, I don't think he gave the horse a bad ride, I think the horse was very difficult to ride. He seemed like he was running all over the place and never really relaxed. Although once he hit the fence and was covered up he appeared to relax a bit. I really thought he was going to squeeze through on the rail. And I believe he was going to win if he was able to get through. I think there may have been enough room to get through - it was very tight - and I think Garcia may have thought screw this I am not going to miss three months in Florida to thread a needle. I had a live $10 double ticket with the 9 and it was coming back around $248 for a deuce.